Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    #201 jwx, Mar 14, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
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  2. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    ^^ the warmth in Western Antarctica seems to be a reflection of the current sea ice situation. Look at the current extent anomaly (I suspect that's a hangover from 2014/5 El-Nino):
     
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  3. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Wentworth Falls today
     
  4. davidg

    davidg Addicted Member
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    :eek:
     
  5. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    not quite up there with feb 25 2013..
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Paddleable?
     
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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Good spot for a slackline.
     
  8. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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    [​IMG]


    El Niño WATCH: six of eight models suggest El Niño by July
    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. However, model outlooks and recent warming in the Pacific Ocean mean there is an increased chance of El Niño forming later this year. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, which means the likelihood of El Niño forming this year is around double the average chance at 50%.

    Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently neutral. However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed since the start of the year, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards. While these are fairly typical changes in the lead up to El Niño, trade winds and cloudiness have not shown any significant shift away from neutral.

    All eight international models surveyed by the Bureau show steady warming of the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached by July 2017. However, some caution must be taken, as models have lower accuracy when forecasting through the autumn months than at other times of the year.

    El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter–spring maximum temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD is likely to remain at least through to the end of winter.





    Not quite locked and loaded, but looking likely for an El Nino winter.
     
  9. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Noob question:
    El Nino is generally considered bad for Aus snow correct?
     
  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yes, SOI is the measure used by Gerg. But SAM and Local SSTAs are more important.
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Usually yes. But there have been instances of reasonable seasons, and snow quality can even be pretty decent since you can get really 'cold' fronts. i.e. July 2014 had some very good skiing, and June 1994 recorded Australia's coldest temp.
     
  12. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah the thing with an El Niño is that it is the lack of moisture that makes it bad, not the lack of cold. In fact, some El Niños are colder seasons in Australia, but El Niño drys the place up.

    Some correlations...
    [​IMG]
    Average Maximum Temperature anomaly during an El Niño Winter/Spring
    [​IMG]
    Average Minimum Temperature anomaly during an El Niño Winter/Spring
    So one is warmer and one is colder, so the jury is still out on this one.
    But the precipitation impacts are pretty well known.
     
  14. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    ^^ Yes, in North Central Vic where I live, most El-Nino winters are frosty and sunny.
     
  15. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Colder but dryer. Thank god for snow making eh?
     
  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    The effect of MJO on the Australian Snow Season is quite high, compared to ENSO and the IOD. But of course this can't be forecast at a seasonal timescale very well.
    [​IMG]
    And the last well known indicator of snow is the Sun or it's sunspots. But turns out, it doesn't have much effect...
    [​IMG]
    That's some of the correlations for the snow season...
     
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  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Again it depends on other climate drivers like what's the IOD doing, local SSTs, etc. You can't make a prediction just off ENSO...
     
  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    While most El Niños are dry, Several El Niños are called "wrong'uns" by the Grasshopper, with very good Snowfall. Better than La Niña according to him. But again this is putting way too much on the back of ENSO. And he's the only one spruiking it...
     
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  19. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    June 2015 at Perisher was stunning with the best machine snow ever seen in Oz. FV opened a day early. Mid Station opened on the Saturday along with Happy Valley. BC opened the following Friday with Early Starter running and Summit/Zali just incredible - 10 of us there all day doing laps on perfect hard pack. Ridge open the following weekend. Mt P opened around then as well ... then the crowds came for School Hols and it turned into absolute dogsville for 2 weeks. Season nearly died in July - then came good with a couple of solid dumps setting up August for some ok tracks on Mt P - before dying a painful death through Sept.
     
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  20. Majikthise

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    Goes down quick
     
  21. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Viagra Falls
     
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  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    I couldn't comment...i am not that old yet...;)
     
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  23. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    nino is far from being a certain, a procession of strong kelvin waves
    are needed to promote mixing warmer temps into the thermocline.

    The mixing is achieved by down-welling by the k/waves across the EQ.
    Without warming in the thermocline there is no solid base for a nino
    and it will likely stay @neutral. Atm the thermocline temps are still cold.

    my 2 cents.

    Bottom line is elnino is just a misery for Africa SE Asia and OZ.
    Drought disease and death for some of the most impoverished nations.
    For a few extra feet of snow over a season its a a poor trade off.
     
    #223 jwx, Mar 14, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Now all you gotta do , as I need do , is piece all this stuff ^^ together, do some Google to help refresh and join the dots to get .... #TheVibe17
     
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  25. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey Active Member

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  26. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    What a totally sodden and miserable day to have off work, 71 mm in daylight hours, 2 blackouts and a flooded yard.
    Rainy, windy mizzle now.



    Better than the heat though!
     
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  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Can generally manage the heat when I'm not working in it....
    This year tho the night time mins for a while where as taxing as I can recall, includes 10 years in Qld.
     
  28. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Did you get the fire started?
     
  29. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Not yet.
    Toasty max of 15 today.
    Hard here, not soft.
     
  30. ecowain

    ecowain Dedicated Member

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    At least you didn't have a day of navigation training, a flooded downstairs of house, and three day bushwalk leaving first thing tomorrow with rivers that may or may not be crossable!
     
    #230 ecowain, Mar 14, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
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  31. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Thanks all :) Reading the weather charts and patterns is tricky business. I wish they taught some of it in school rather than useless crap like long division :p
     
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  32. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I like when we all pitch in our knowledge, maybe there could be somewhere we could put these guides if you could call them that...
     
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  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I think we are already there.
     
  34. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    One thing not noted on the blogs posted above on nino and its
    to be expected considering most are by snow forecasters

    A busy WPAC .typhoon season with major strength systems has a
    big affect across the pacific with westerlies. So it could be said a
    procession of K/Waves with a busy heavy STY season are triggers.

    Its widely known Super Typhoon Haiyan was the trigger for the last nino
    Dr Masters did a blog on it i dont have time to search for it .now maybe one
    of you guys can if you are bored.
     
    #234 jwx, Mar 14, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
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  35. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  36. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    #236 jwx, Mar 14, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
  37. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Sigh ---- up to 80 mm now since 9 this morning
     
  38. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  39. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Unruly conditions in the far South West today. First real front of the season (have had a number of weak ones through summer), although more a deep low spinning close to Capes.

    Not much rain, but strong gusty westerlies, really blowing the summer cobwebs out and ushering in Autumn. Gusting to around 90km/h on coast all day, big swell, so certainly moving the sand about for surf season.
     
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  41. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    #241 jwx, Mar 15, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2017
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  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Despite the lack of rainfall this month in VIC and temps pretty much 30C or above every day, it hasnt dried out too much. I guess a couple hours less sunlight per day compared to Dec and Jan helps, and also the dew that we've been getting every night has helped too. It's come at a terrible time for me, I need cold and wet to get rid of these fire restrictions.
     
  43. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    Looks like melbourne will get a break after the 20th as per forecast, do you experts agree? Dying for some cooler weather
     
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  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  45. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Looks more like after March 23 IMO, and then only brief respite before the next monster blocking high.
     
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  46. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    EC eastern seaboard looking a wet ahead.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    South

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
    R/Time present front now in the GAB.
     
  47. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Well there's potential for that trough to deepen and really give much of South Eastern Australia a serious deluge later next week, even well into Eastern Vic.
     
  48. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    GFS likes a good soaking n/weekend lower SE cut/off low.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    weak as system also in the tropics JBG. SE Cut/off is a fully closed off low..
     
    #248 jwx, Mar 15, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2017
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  49. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Hmmmm, an autumn break like that would be nice. Rain is sorely lacking here atm and I'm fighting a losing battle to save my garden....
     
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  50. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Do not need in Sydney.
     
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