Mega Thread The Autumn, winter's not far away thread!

Discussion in 'Weather' started by jwx, Mar 1, 2017.

  1. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Suppose to be camping just out of Sydney this weekend so of course this rain will hang around until this time next week. So much BOM seasonal outlook as far as nsw coast is concerned:
    Climate outlook overview
    • Autumn (March to May) rainfall is likely to be below average over the southern two-thirds of Australia.
    • March is likely to be hotter and drier than average across most of Australia, except the far north and west.
    Ah huh! Guessing the last 3 weeks doesn't fall into this season.

    Dont get me wrong, Im a n/w nsw country girl and the rain hitting the other side of the range is great. Just in Sydney, starting to get a bit over it. Especially when looking forward to camping/ bush walking and swimming this weekend.
     
  2. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    0z GFS no wipers.on this run.
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    it's the "wet season" for weeks to come along the coast south of Sydney. pretty much normal - May is generally better - but March and April can be endless rain - especially after a couple of months of dry weather. The whole country can be in drought and the south east coast will be wet and green.
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC suggests a cooler wetter change around the 21st and 22nd of March.

    [​IMG]

    GFS not far off that either.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. davidg

    davidg Addicted Member
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    Pretty much this, the Autumn break after a long hot summer is most welcome and sets up the sub soil moisture profile for Winter/early Spring most years. This SST's are prime for a bunch of ECL's this year as well. Could be quite a wet start to winter.
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    3-5mm this morning sweeping across Melbourne a little earlier than predicted. Welcome after a pretty stuffy night.
     
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  7. davidg

    davidg Addicted Member
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    Dafuq is this? Looks like a small scale low has spun up out of nowhere, really heavy rain currently in the lower BM's.

     
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  8. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    The run of wet weather in Sydney is definitely on my nerves. Will have to go on a bit of a data hunt through BOM archives, but I suspect last sunday would have been the only day without rain recorded for...up to a month now?

    (Edit: rain recorded 17 out of the last 20 days at Observatory Hill)

    It's clearly because I started commuting to work by bike, even the weather in NSW hates cyclists.
     
    #258 sbm, Mar 16, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
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  9. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    The easterly dip touched on earlier is coming into play.
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  11. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Ok weather gurus, in simple language - WTF is going on with this series of highs in the Tasman, making for a hot and dry March in Victoria? I'm over it, it shouldn't be this hot at this time of year. We had a mild summer, then this! It seems to be neverending. Ok, today is nice but it will be hot again on the weekend.
     
  12. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Wanna swap?
    17 degrees max and up to 70 mm rain forecast here for Saturday.
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It's not that unusual. Blocking / stationary highs bringing stable warm weather to the south and a strong trade wind onshore regime to NSW and QLD in early autumn is fairly normal.
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Well spotted.
    I looked at this (and thought of your call the other day) when D mentioned radar rotation on fb.
     

    Attached Files:

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  15. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    I recall last year being similar. The first few weeks of March were just hot consistently and then finally it broke down... Doesn't feel too much different to that.
     
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  16. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Yes. I'd definitely swap.
     
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  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  18. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    leading into the following weekend 23/26.
    GFS looking quite eventful. Big sloppy monsoonal type of low
    over QLD. A cyclone over the kimberly. A low off WA. And a wet
    looking PV streamer over VIC.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Jon snow

    Jon snow Active Member

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    Very wet afternoon here at the bottom of Macquarie pass. Albion Park AWS has had 147mm of rain and more than that fell at my place. We currently have no electricity as tree flotating down the Macquarie rivulet hit a power pole. I saw several large casuarinas along the banks get pushed over by the flood waters along with lots of debris including a washing machine. It would easily be the highest I have seen the water get to in my life.
     
  20. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  21. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  22. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    That's a lot of water. Hope you stay safe!
     
  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Simple as warm SST again ?
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    As 'complex' as ridging and troughing, to me.
    But PWAT certainly being influenced by +ive SSTs off the NSW coast.
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Addicted Member
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    Minimum Temp Team Bears experienced last night on MtMulhauser would have to be we reckon a record...We are sleeping at 5'000 feet and it stayed warm all night.Tiny bit of dew..like I am lying on the picnic table sleeping bag only...tee shirt on....it's bloody dry up there Track is bone dry...burning snow gums that have stuff all moisture in the wood and left with charcoal only in morning?o_Othen no rain today(a little was forecast) and I did not even take rain coat out!
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    and there she be ....

     
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  28. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    In 10-16 days, Ridge over NZ likely according to this forecast from the JMA. Potential for something to brew in the bight.
    Exciting times ahead!
     
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  29. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Another day of bleh.
    Fog, mizzle, rain mix.
     
  30. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    The gale force winds should blow that away soon. ;)
     
    #280 PMG, Mar 17, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2017
  31. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    Impressed you guys find this setup so easy figure out.
    I'm finding the current setup quite frustrating to figure what is next.
    To me it appears their is multi mid-level vort's along the the coast.
    A string of Perls in a large u-level stagnate trough tangled up in a gyre being fead by a moist monsoonal flow along the coast. I tip my hat to guys for simplifying this current setup.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    A lot if interaction for sure! Not sure I have it sussed at all but the trough sinking between highs appears to want to deepen but limited by some ridging (pinching aloft?). Multi-level disturbance thanks to that front to the south, is what I am reading into it.
    Somewhat beneign as that high ridges south of the meat and potatoes off the NSW coast.
     
    #282 POW_hungry, Mar 17, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2017
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  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    fwiw
    This snip was for 10m / surface level winds if it may assist understanding .
     
  34. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Took a quick timelapse this morning of the weather whacking Sydney. See if you can guess which direction she be blowing from....

     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    South! Where all good things come from as far as this website is concerned!
     
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  36. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Word!

    And she be blowing hard at the moment. The city periodically vanishes, too.
     
  37. filski

    filski Old And Crusty
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    Am so over the rain and wind!
    Looking ahead, forecast seems to be more of the same?
     
  38. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Blew my mind...had a quick look to verify the "second-wettest capital city" claim and it checked out.
     
  39. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Sydney average annual rainfall is higher than Portland and Vancouver in the american PNW too!
     
  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Raindays is where livability is at...we get volume ...not endless days of grey mizzly murk.
     
  41. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    I beg to differ.
     
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  42. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Mountain murk is different quality murk to flat urban murk
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    ENSO time!
    [​IMG]
    New model added to the mix (from Saudi Arabia) that is predicting a very strong El Niño.
    UKMO, SAUDI-KAU, POAMA, COLA (US), Met France and NASA GMAO models are firmly in the El Niño category.
    CanSIPS, IOCAS-ICM (Chinese), CFS and IRI (US) models are borderline El Niño.
    KMA-SNU (Korea) and JMA (Japan) are Warm Neutral, as are 4 out of 5 of the statistical models reviewed.
    Only LMAO (Lamont and Doherty model) is Cool Neutral.

    So the takeaway from all this. The models haven't decided on El Niño. Most of the dynamical models are in the Borderline or Firm El Niño categories, but there is still a lot of variability.

    And this is forgetting that the atmospheric conditions in the Pacific aren't exactly favourable for El Niño.
    For starters, look at this cloudiness plot that still thinks it's in La Niña.
    [​IMG]
    Anyway, predictablility barrier isn't over yet. So defnitely caution with all this variability.
     
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  44. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Wow! I'll be honest. I've witnessed some heavy shit in Portland and Van first hand... Never would've guessed that.
    Although I do love the variability of Sydney's weather out of that that triumvirate.
     
  46. Zeroz

    Zeroz Dedicated Member
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    Stats back this up.
    Sydney has an average of 144 rain days a year. Melbourne has 150 rain days in the average year.

    Sydney gets double the rainfall of Melbourne, but in fewer days. Thunderstorms v drizzle.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC showing 30-50mm for the Melbourne metro area for Monday & Tuesday.

    GFS has far less (10-25mm)
     
  48. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    I just wonder what all you Sydney siders do for fun when its wet all the time. Has been perfect up here since our Monday deluge. Minimums in the teens and maximums in the low 30's. About as good as weather gets.
     
  49. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    Only 37 mm here in the last 24 hours.
    Still pi$$ing down even harder now.
     
  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Only white thing in the sky is the moon. It's really poor here in Melbourne.
     
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