The coming Japanese season 2010-2011 weather

Sandy

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The snow season may be two months away in Hokkaido (and a bit longer in central Japan), and it may have been the hottest summer on record for most places in Japan, but I get the feeling that there is a change brewing about this time next week (around Wed 22nd September).

While it's still been hitting 34 degrees in Tokyo, I think there's 50% chance there will be snow down below 2000m around Wed/Thu next week. This would be unusual!!!!!
 

Donza

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dammit i was going to start this thread.
laugh.gif

yeah looks like hokkaido will see its first dusting on the peaks..
 
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Vermillion

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It must be happening Sandy, the 22nd is when i go in for my ankle operation, and begin my race against the clock to be fit for Niseko in February.

Im taking bets on the odds for me not being fit enough to ski in Niseko AND it being the biggest season in history.
 

Sandy

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Vermillion said:
It must be happening Sandy, the 22nd is when i go in for my ankle operation, and begin my race against the clock to be fit for Niseko in February.

Im taking bets on the odds for me not being fit enough to ski in Niseko AND it being the biggest season in history.

Two possibilities:

1. 80% your ankle will be ok. 10% chance the season will be huge.
2. 10% your ankle will be ok. 90% chance the season will be huge.

wink.gif
 
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ratherb@thesnow

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Smitty, seeing those maps again has brought back that feeling of Joy that comes with the Japan Snow season, cant believe that its nearly that time of the year again when my daily routine is set around reading the japan weather maps/cams/forums.

Getting a little excited.
 

Sandy

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smitty484 said:
It's great isnt it!!!

I like this one as well, but obviously not much showing at the moment:

It will just be a relief here in Japan, that the hottest weather is leaving!!!!
 
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Vermillion

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Sandy said:
Vermillion said:
It must be happening Sandy, the 22nd is when i go in for my ankle operation, and begin my race against the clock to be fit for Niseko in February.

Im taking bets on the odds for me not being fit enough to ski in Niseko AND it being the biggest season in history.

Two possibilities:

1. 80% your ankle will be ok. 10% chance the season will be huge.
2. 10% your ankle will be ok. 90% chance the season will be huge.

wink.gif

This man, he knows it
wink.gif
 
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damian

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I am growing to like you guys, but I think a few of you have some serious weather geek problems.
smile.gif
As in you need help. (IMHO)

Here is what I have to add...

Comments floating around about El Nina bringing a big season like in 2005.

As it does in my parts (Hakuba) the weather switched character in one day last week. You could feel the turn and the trend towards colder has started - last night I was cold in bed for the first time. The rice is getting very fat and golden and harvesting has started around the valley. The buckwheat is in full bloom.

First snow last year was on Oct 10, less than 30 days from now. It is hard to believe.

By first snow I mean the first snow fall that settled and did not melt before the clouds lifted.

first%20snow%202009_640.jpg
 
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Sandy

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Last night was the first time in more than 3 months, when the overnight temperature dropped below 20 degrees in Tokyo/Yokohama!!!!
thumbsup.gif
 
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Donza

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Sandy said:
Last night was the first time in more than 3 months, when the overnight temperature dropped below 20 degrees in Tokyo/Yokohama!!!!
thumbsup.gif
maybe the poms should play there
lots of movement in the air.

Thats crazy BTW..

how does the AC handle it? does it sweat?
 
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damian

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I always thought that those charts were essentially unreadable and for the effort of analysing them, they yield no better forecast than snow-forecast.com
wink.gif


And yes, it is cold here today. 18C at my house after 8 weeks of 30 almost every day.
 
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smitty484

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damian said:
I always thought that those charts were essentially unreadable and for the effort of analysing them, they yield no better forecast than snow-forecast.com
wink.gif

I really like the chart actually. Snow-forecast is a bit meh for me in Japan. But with this 9 day I can easily see the positioning of the lows/highs and the direction and strength of the wind.
 
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Sandy

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damian said:
I always thought that those charts were essentially unreadable and for the effort of analysing them, they yield no better forecast than snow-forecast.com
wink.gif


And yes, it is cold here today. 18C at my house after 8 weeks of 30 almost every day.

And it's only 21 here in Yokohama....
 
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damian

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Smitty - I like the chart as well. But for my time and the accuracy, I find snow-forecast to be quite good for Hakuba.

Donza - I am concerned with the next 3 days max, plus a 3 hourly breakdown of the next 24 hours. For our professional purposes, we find that that snow-forecast does a pretty good job as an event timing predictor. Then I just make my own adjustments to quantities based on local experience.
 

Donza

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I reckon snowforecast does a good job with freezing level...but beyond that its cactus
even for Australia it vastly undercooks amounts..

its like all third generation models

simple.
 

smitty484

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Yeh I am at odds with Donza on this as well. Haha.

I do like snow-forecast for predicting wind direction and strength. I just make my own adjustments to snowfall amounts. I also like the way they present their data with the snowline. Just renewed my membership in fact.
 

Donza

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smitty484 said:
Yeh I am at odds with Donza on this as well. Haha.

I do like snow-forecast for predicting wind direction and strength. I just make my own adjustments to snowfall amounts. I also like the way they present their data with the snowline. Just renewed my membership in fact.

pffft
I actually like the japanese yahoo weather sites...
complete with cool snowmen
the one for Kutchan is on the ball IMO
 
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smitty484

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Yeh they are cool too, I have used them...as well as the JMA website for looking at current temps and snowfall amounts.

I'll still go back to snow-forecast for a quick update though.
 

damian

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Yahoo doesn't give altitude forecasts. I could extrapolate them, but that is one more process for me every evening and early morning.

SF undercooks snow quantity, but that doesn't worry me. So long as timing of significant events is good.

Wind: no service I know can forecast wind for Hakuba. If SF says it will be a bit windy, expect a blast in one spot and possibly calm in another. If they forecast over 30kph, duck for cover.

Temps: All I care about is freezing level and sunshine intensity (cloud cover).

Until I see something locally produced like this for Hakuba, I'll make do with SF
http://chamonix-meteo.com/bul/metPreMatEn.php
 
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smitty484

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Just to annoy Donza
wink.gif
, snow-forecast 9 day is predicting snow level of about 1300m at the end of the forecast period for Furano.
 
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Donza

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smitty484 said:
Just to annoy Donza
wink.gif
, snow-forecast 9 day is predicting snow level of about 1300m at the end of the forecast period for Furano.
just to annoy smitty
I'll predict a snowlevel of 1000.
 
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cin

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Donza said:
I reckon snowforecast does a good job with freezing level...but beyond that its cactus
even for Australia it vastly undercooks amounts..

its like all third generation models

simple.

I'm a fan of snow-forecast, I find the maps easy to read and get excited when all the pretty colours are showing! The freezing levels are great, and theres a good range of charts worldwide.

A couple of years ago they put out a notice saying they had re-programmed things as many reports were coming back to them abusing them for overcooking the accumulations. So maybe they have moved back too far in the opposite direction. I suppose they just don't want to be accused of talking it up to much to avoid abuse from those who might be dissapointed.

I don't think they are any less accurate than most other forecasts or models, its just the weather, ya never never know the truth until its happened.
 
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Texy

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There was a European forecasting website that did a reasonable job of indicating snow in Japan. I used it a lot last year but after a computer reboot I lost the link. It presented a half decent map on the right of the screen with predicted precip. Any idea? I can not for the life of me find it after many hours of searching...
 

smitty484

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IMO predicting snow or fine weather under normal conditions is generally pretty easy for Japan. Predicting amounts starts to get harder. The hardest part IMO is when you get a low pressure coming in from the south, because it is much harder predicting rain/snow amounts as it is generally pretty marginal and a lot relies on what path the low pressure system takes.
 

damian

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Texy -

Possibly this one from Norway? It is very nice, however I have serious reservations regarding their attention to the basics based on the fact that the wind speed and direction is always the same for 886m as it is for 2634m on Shirouma.

And, 886m is substantially higher than almost any point in Hakuba valley where people live. They are approx 200m too high. And our highest peak, Shirouma, is 2932m, not 2634m

886m, Hakuba Valley: http://www.yr.no/place/Japan/Other/Hakuba-mura/hour_by_hour.html

2634m, Shirouma: http://www.yr.no/place/Japan/Other/Shirouma-dake/hour_by_hour.html
 
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timmyhugecans

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As for snow predictions this last winter I found it very good, but for summer it;s been way off many times predicting rain. I'm obviously no weather guru though. I just look for snow men.
 

Donza

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damian said:
Texy -

Possibly this one from Norway? It is very nice, however I have serious reservations regarding their attention to the basics based on the fact that the wind speed and direction is always the same for 886m as it is for 2634m on Shirouma.

And, 886m is substantially higher than almost any point in Hakuba valley where people live. They are approx 200m too high. And our highest peak, Shirouma, is 2932m, not 2634m

886m, Hakuba Valley: http://www.yr.no/place/Japan/Other/Hakuba-mura/hour_by_hour.html

2634m, Shirouma: http://www.yr.no/place/Japan/Other/Shirouma-dake/hour_by_hour.html
Yeah thats based on the EC model. Crazy norwegians
The reason the altitudes are wrong is because of the resolution of the model is based upon a grid.It divides the whole world into a series of these tiles.say 15km square. It lays a grid over the forecast area and basically defaults to one height that has been determined as the height of the tile or grid
 
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timmyhugecans

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damian said:
I am growing to like you guys, but I think a few of you have some serious weather geek problems.
smile.gif
As in you need help. (IMHO)


"As it does in my parts (Hakuba) the weather switched character in one day last week. You could feel the turn and the trend towards colder has started - last night I was cold in bed for the first time."

So true, summer gone overnight! Bizarre.
 
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damian

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Need some help with the quote function there, Timmy?
wink.gif


Agreed about the rain forecast from SH over summer. It would always pop up about 5 days out then then nothing came. But usually the forecast mm of rain decreased as the day came closer until it reached zero mm, which is what we got.

A few times, it said rain today, and we got nothing. But it usually only said 1 or 2mm, which to me means "very small probability of very scattered light showers", perhaps a shower at one end of the valley and dry everywhere else.

It was very accurate with temps though, always a few degrees under what we got.

Donza -
Thanks for the info on the method. It explains the altitude issue, which I found strange. The wind speed is still a big killer for me though.
 
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smackies

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I half-seriously considered trying to learn how to read charts for the coming Japanese season.

But I find reading this thread much easier.
wink.gif
 
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ODNT

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I like snow forecast .com forecasting snow because you at least know its going to snow, just dunno how much, you can times it by 4 or 5 most times. And between BOM & the efforts of you guys im happy. Unlike home here in Auzz, I dont watch with so much desperation prior my Japan trips as its just a matter of when & how much. The daily flake suffices till i get there.
 
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