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The coming Japanese season 2010-2011 weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 14, 2010.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The snow season may be two months away in Hokkaido (and a bit longer in central Japan), and it may have been the hottest summer on record for most places in Japan, but I get the feeling that there is a change brewing about this time next week (around Wed 22nd September).

    While it's still been hitting 34 degrees in Tokyo, I think there's 50% chance there will be snow down below 2000m around Wed/Thu next week. This would be unusual!!!!!
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    dammit i was going to start this thread.
    [​IMG]
    yeah looks like hokkaido will see its first dusting on the peaks..
     
    #2 Donza, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It must be happening Sandy, the 22nd is when i go in for my ankle operation, and begin my race against the clock to be fit for Niseko in February.

    Im taking bets on the odds for me not being fit enough to ski in Niseko AND it being the biggest season in history.
     
  4. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Time to get the old maps back out again. [​IMG]
     
    #4 smitty484, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can see the cold air coming down:

    [​IMG]
     
    #5 smitty484, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Two possibilities:

    1. 80% your ankle will be ok. 10% chance the season will be huge.
    2. 10% your ankle will be ok. 90% chance the season will be huge.

    [​IMG]
     
    #6 Sandy, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Smitty, seeing those maps again has brought back that feeling of Joy that comes with the Japan Snow season, cant believe that its nearly that time of the year again when my daily routine is set around reading the japan weather maps/cams/forums.

    Getting a little excited.
     
  8. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's great isnt it!!!

    I like this one as well, but obviously not much showing at the moment:

    [​IMG]
     
    #8 smitty484, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will just be a relief here in Japan, that the hottest weather is leaving!!!!
     
    #9 Sandy, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] and Brisbane's is just around the corner.
     
    #10 smitty484, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Ah! more Japan porn
     
    #11 ratherb@thesnow, Sep 14, 2010
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  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This man, he knows it [​IMG]
     
    #12 Vermillion, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Is it time for "Stay on topic"?
    [​IMG]
     
    #13 Claude Cat, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  14. damian

    damian A Local

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    I am growing to like you guys, but I think a few of you have some serious weather geek problems. [​IMG] As in you need help. (IMHO)

    Here is what I have to add...

    Comments floating around about El Nina bringing a big season like in 2005.

    As it does in my parts (Hakuba) the weather switched character in one day last week. You could feel the turn and the trend towards colder has started - last night I was cold in bed for the first time. The rice is getting very fat and golden and harvesting has started around the valley. The buckwheat is in full bloom.

    First snow last year was on Oct 10, less than 30 days from now. It is hard to believe.

    By first snow I mean the first snow fall that settled and did not melt before the clouds lifted.

    [​IMG]
     
    #14 damian, Sep 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    First slide I reckon
    9 days away.
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last night was the first time in more than 3 months, when the overnight temperature dropped below 20 degrees in Tokyo/Yokohama!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #16 Sandy, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    maybe the poms should play there
    lots of movement in the air.

    Thats crazy BTW..

    how does the AC handle it? does it sweat?
     
    #17 Donza, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the cold air enters:

    [​IMG]
     
    #18 smitty484, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I always thought the light blue meant 0C at sea level...but I must be wrong on that??
     
  20. damian

    damian A Local

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    I always thought that those charts were essentially unreadable and for the effort of analysing them, they yield no better forecast than snow-forecast.com [​IMG]

    And yes, it is cold here today. 18C at my house after 8 weeks of 30 almost every day.
     
    #20 damian, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #21 Donza, Sep 16, 2010
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  22. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I really like the chart actually. Snow-forecast is a bit meh for me in Japan. But with this 9 day I can easily see the positioning of the lows/highs and the direction and strength of the wind.
     
    #22 smitty484, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And it's only 21 here in Yokohama....
     
    #23 Sandy, Sep 16, 2010
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  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #24 Donza, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  25. damian

    damian A Local

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    Smitty - I like the chart as well. But for my time and the accuracy, I find snow-forecast to be quite good for Hakuba.

    Donza - I am concerned with the next 3 days max, plus a 3 hourly breakdown of the next 24 hours. For our professional purposes, we find that that snow-forecast does a pretty good job as an event timing predictor. Then I just make my own adjustments to quantities based on local experience.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I reckon snowforecast does a good job with freezing level...but beyond that its cactus
    even for Australia it vastly undercooks amounts..

    its like all third generation models

    simple.
     
  27. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh I am at odds with Donza on this as well. Haha.

    I do like snow-forecast for predicting wind direction and strength. I just make my own adjustments to snowfall amounts. I also like the way they present their data with the snowline. Just renewed my membership in fact.
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    pffft
    I actually like the japanese yahoo weather sites...
    complete with cool snowmen
    the one for Kutchan is on the ball IMO
     
    #28 Donza, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh they are cool too, I have used them...as well as the JMA website for looking at current temps and snowfall amounts.

    I'll still go back to snow-forecast for a quick update though.
     
  30. damian

    damian A Local

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    Yahoo doesn't give altitude forecasts. I could extrapolate them, but that is one more process for me every evening and early morning.

    SF undercooks snow quantity, but that doesn't worry me. So long as timing of significant events is good.

    Wind: no service I know can forecast wind for Hakuba. If SF says it will be a bit windy, expect a blast in one spot and possibly calm in another. If they forecast over 30kph, duck for cover.

    Temps: All I care about is freezing level and sunshine intensity (cloud cover).

    Until I see something locally produced like this for Hakuba, I'll make do with SF
    http://chamonix-meteo.com/bul/metPreMatEn.php
     
    #30 damian, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  31. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just to annoy Donza [​IMG] , snow-forecast 9 day is predicting snow level of about 1300m at the end of the forecast period for Furano.
     
    #31 smitty484, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    just to annoy smitty
    I'll predict a snowlevel of 1000.
     
    #32 Donza, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's looking pretty cool (temp wise), getting me all excited.
     
  34. damian

    damian A Local

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    pfft... Donza... what a hack

    [​IMG]
     
    #34 damian, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  35. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm a fan of snow-forecast, I find the maps easy to read and get excited when all the pretty colours are showing! The freezing levels are great, and theres a good range of charts worldwide.

    A couple of years ago they put out a notice saying they had re-programmed things as many reports were coming back to them abusing them for overcooking the accumulations. So maybe they have moved back too far in the opposite direction. I suppose they just don't want to be accused of talking it up to much to avoid abuse from those who might be dissapointed.

    I don't think they are any less accurate than most other forecasts or models, its just the weather, ya never never know the truth until its happened.
     
    #35 cin, Sep 16, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. Texy

    Texy Hard Yards

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    There was a European forecasting website that did a reasonable job of indicating snow in Japan. I used it a lot last year but after a computer reboot I lost the link. It presented a half decent map on the right of the screen with predicted precip. Any idea? I can not for the life of me find it after many hours of searching...
     
  37. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO predicting snow or fine weather under normal conditions is generally pretty easy for Japan. Predicting amounts starts to get harder. The hardest part IMO is when you get a low pressure coming in from the south, because it is much harder predicting rain/snow amounts as it is generally pretty marginal and a lot relies on what path the low pressure system takes.
     
  38. damian

    damian A Local

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    Texy -

    Possibly this one from Norway? It is very nice, however I have serious reservations regarding their attention to the basics based on the fact that the wind speed and direction is always the same for 886m as it is for 2634m on Shirouma.

    And, 886m is substantially higher than almost any point in Hakuba valley where people live. They are approx 200m too high. And our highest peak, Shirouma, is 2932m, not 2634m

    886m, Hakuba Valley: http://www.yr.no/place/Japan/Other/Hakuba-mura/hour_by_hour.html

    2634m, Shirouma: http://www.yr.no/place/Japan/Other/Shirouma-dake/hour_by_hour.html
     
    #38 damian, Sep 17, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  39. Texy

    Texy Hard Yards

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    You legend damian, that is the one... [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #39 Texy, Sep 17, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. timmyhugecans

    timmyhugecans One of Us

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    As for snow predictions this last winter I found it very good, but for summer it;s been way off many times predicting rain. I'm obviously no weather guru though. I just look for snow men.
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah thats based on the EC model. Crazy norwegians
    The reason the altitudes are wrong is because of the resolution of the model is based upon a grid.It divides the whole world into a series of these tiles.say 15km square. It lays a grid over the forecast area and basically defaults to one height that has been determined as the height of the tile or grid
     
    #41 Donza, Sep 17, 2010
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  42. timmyhugecans

    timmyhugecans One of Us

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    #42 timmyhugecans, Sep 17, 2010
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  43. damian

    damian A Local

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    Need some help with the quote function there, Timmy? [​IMG]

    Agreed about the rain forecast from SH over summer. It would always pop up about 5 days out then then nothing came. But usually the forecast mm of rain decreased as the day came closer until it reached zero mm, which is what we got.

    A few times, it said rain today, and we got nothing. But it usually only said 1 or 2mm, which to me means "very small probability of very scattered light showers", perhaps a shower at one end of the valley and dry everywhere else.

    It was very accurate with temps though, always a few degrees under what we got.

    Donza -
    Thanks for the info on the method. It explains the altitude issue, which I found strange. The wind speed is still a big killer for me though.
     
    #43 damian, Sep 17, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    I half-seriously considered trying to learn how to read charts for the coming Japanese season.

    But I find reading this thread much easier. [​IMG]
     
    #44 smackies, Sep 17, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the way girl [​IMG]
     
    #45 Vermillion, Sep 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Check the typhoon...pretty cool pic today.

    [​IMG]
     
    #46 smitty484, Sep 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. ODNT

    ODNT Part of the Furniture

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    I like snow forecast .com forecasting snow because you at least know its going to snow, just dunno how much, you can times it by 4 or 5 most times. And between BOM & the efforts of you guys im happy. Unlike home here in Auzz, I dont watch with so much desperation prior my Japan trips as its just a matter of when & how much. The daily flake suffices till i get there.
     
  48. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #48 smitty484, Sep 20, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  49. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #49 smitty484, Sep 20, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  50. ODNT

    ODNT Part of the Furniture

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    Nice shot smitty , is that Happo ?