The coming Japanese season 2010-2011 weather

Go Native

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About an hour ago the sun actually poked through briefly but it's looking pretty nasty out there at the moment. Heavy snow and strong winds. Not pleasant.
 
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Go Native

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It's about -5 in the village currently and blowing a gale. A whirlwind of snow just went past my office window. Want to be rugged up pretty good if you're out there at the moment!
 

TJ

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TJ said:
The freezing levels on most of the models are very rarely correct from my observations outside my office at 760 meters. They are consistently between 300 and 400 meters too high. I think the mountains have such an affect from the systems going from sea level to hitting a 3000 meter wall of mountains it is difficult to give an accurate prediction from the other side of the range.
Snow forecast had the freezing level at 1150 meters for this morning yet it was dumping here and right down to the valley floor.
 
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Donza

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smitty484 said:
I like what is brewing around 8/9 Dec onwards as Sandy suggested the other day.
hai..

i reckon the pppp (11th onwards) will be epic dumpage weekeend
 
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smitty484

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Things starting to look much better. Hopefully that low over Hokkaido moves north...but I think it will.

76689_461159621057_571771057_6153801_2138518_n.jpg
 
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seekingpow

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snow-forecast now going for +60mm of wet at the base on the weekend
eek.gif


Perhaps 8/9 December will be the season changeover event?
 
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smitty484

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Yep there is the chance of a fair bit of rain beforehand but that's the result of low pressure systems coming from the south over the mainland. It's what comes after (i.e around 8/9) that has me a little excited.
 

Mrstr_Chief

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oh no, all that base cooling snow gooonnnee!!!!
laugh.gif
yea we dont need to worry, the proper winter snowfall is a coming. Just takes a bit longer than other NH places
wink.gif
 
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seekingpow

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Looks to be a good little amount on the cams this morning.
I'm there late December so every bit helps
thumbsup.gif
 
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damian

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Like pounding sand with a broken hand.

TJ said:
TJ said:
The freezing levels on most of the models are very rarely correct from my observations outside my office at 760 meters. They are consistently between 300 and 400 meters too high. I think the mountains have such an affect from the systems going from sea level to hitting a 3000 meter wall of mountains it is difficult to give an accurate prediction from the other side of the range.
Snow forecast had the freezing level at 1150 meters for this morning yet it was dumping here and right down to the valley floor.

And yet....

It was above freezing right down to the valley floor all day and the snow that fell was slop. Go back and read GN's posts regarding lapse rate etc, and also mine relating to s-f.com FL data. Please. Do yourself a favour.

Check it before it is gone - yesterday's temperature data for Hakuba (some one get a screen shot)

Given yesterday's temps in the valley, I'd say that snow-forecast.com got the free-air freezing level just about right at 1100m
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/yesterday-48141.html?areaCode=000&groupCode=33
JMA20101130.jpg
 
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Go Native

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We got about 20-25cm last night. They still haven't opened any lifts though. There's got to be half a metre on the upper slopes so there must be enough for a lift or two.
 

Donza

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Go Native said:
We got about 20-25cm last night. They still haven't opened any lifts though. There's got to be half a metre on the upper slopes so there must be enough for a lift or two.
I reckon sunday might be an outside chance

will be heaps of wind and drifting though.
the 9th storm Sandy is talking about looks very moist, with the low centrred on Hokkaido.
Honshu storm hey
(on other notes..WZ has a ACCESS _ g model for the NW Pacific.
Yet I can't find it anywhere on the BOM site.
 
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damian

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TJ said:
hmmmm
So what you are saying is the freezing level was at 1150. Very interesting.

Yes, probably close to 1150m at various times during the day. Particularly between 8 and 11am when it was snoring the hardest in the valley. Why is that so very interesting?

Last year you argued against forecasted data, and, amazingly, you also argued against real time recorded data, even when different locations from trustworthy observers corroborated the recordings, in real time. This season you have continued the futile campaign to degrade the veracity of certain data (both forecast and real). Why?
 
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Go Native

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Yeah and pretty much the only people in town to ski now are season pass holders. They've already got their money and it'd only cost them to open the lifts...can't blame them really.

Started snowing lightly again.
 

seekingpow

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Winter weather question.

When would it be reasonable to expect to see a more established winter pattern of highs directing a NW cold feed across the SOJ to get some lake effect action happening so we can see more regular falls?
 

smitty484

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For Hokkaido, anytime between November and December. For Honshu I generally wouldn't expect it to be until Dec, and if it is like last season it was later December. But obviosuly these times vary from year to year, with some years better than others.
 

Sandy

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TJ said:
Sandy, biblical yet ???? Looking very good at this point.

Still just EPIC, but I reserve the right to change it to Biblical, if it warrants it!!!
biggrin.gif


( like I called last year, when Cortina went from 0cm base to 208cm BASE in just 3 days!!!
thumbsup.gif
)
 
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jahoota

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pants very tight in the grional region looking at that chart. If that comes to pass I think the seams in my shorts will split for sure.
 

seekingpow

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Yeah - I'd like to belive it but getting excited this far out is a recipe for disappointment/jinxing it.
Although, Sandy picked last years season starting monster from a long way out...
 

seekingpow

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Yeah I saw those! Very nice.
Hopefully all that Sasa gets covered over the coming month. Didn't release how thick it gets over summer in the trees!

Interesting contrast seeing the shots of the early snow with the summer foliage poking through.
 

Donza

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Looking quite nice on the Australian model.

(BTW no one have the answer to my question back a page or three?)

trying to find this model on the BOMS site

japanaccess.png
 
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Go Native

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More snow falling this morning. It's a little milder than the last couple of days and the snow is a little wetter but more snow is good. Need to build that base to last out the rain on Friday.
 

damian

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Glider, hope you don"t mind, but I edited your comment slightly to reflect my similar sentiments:

where is any country in that image - its so cluttered I cant even pick out the landmasses...

I stopped looking at that kind of artwork some time ago and now let other people's computing power do the job for me. I then consume the output in a nice simple table. Baro maps are enough for me if I want more.
 
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Go Native

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C'mon it's not that hard!
wink.gif


The NE peninsula of Hokkaido is under the highlighted 992 isobar in the top right of the image.
 
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Donza

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damian said:
I think I just found India!!
wink.gif
Imagine its a bad piece of Grammar.

Then you'll be all over it.
 
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damian

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Go Native said:
C'mon it's not that hard!
wink.gif


The NE peninsula of Hokkaido is under the highlighted 992 isobar in the top right of the image.

Which of the 20 different overlaying multicoloured various thickness lines would that particular isobar be
smile.gif
wink.gif


And when is +240 hours from 0 Zulu anyway?

Donza - I have only corrected Grammar once. And it was not a correction, rather offering an alternate way of saying something. I still think you should have been Banned With Account And All Posts Deleted (BWAAAPD, as Toto would say it)
smile.gif


20-30cm of creamy heavy fresh snow reported to have been skied on happo yesterday. The valley and lower slopes are melting to grass fast. The weather is perfect and the access road to our little "glacier" has not yet shut. But I am stuck doing a lot of pre-season admin before things really get underway.
 
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