The coming Japanese season 2010-2011 weather

Sandy

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TJ said:
I'm waiting for Sandy's prediction of a storm of biblical proportions again.

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Nothing Biblical on my radar yet!!!!
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Will let you know when....

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The last two days have finally felt like "early winter" in Tokyo/Yokohama
 
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Donza

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Looks online for most of japan.
look at the 850 temps
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gfsx_850_10d_easia.gif
 
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Sandy

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Yesterday, the top temperature in Tokyo(9am-9pm) was 9.6 degrees.

That's more like an "early winter" temperature in my book. Yokohama was 8.9
 

Go Native

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We got up to 6 degrees yesterday and looking at 9 degrees today. Unusually mild for this time of year.

Loving the look of that forecast though!
 

jahoota

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The look of that predicted weather pattern has induced a tightening of pants around my grional region for sure. If that pattern comes to pass I'll be splitting pants seams....
 
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McNads

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Any projection greater then 4 days out is la-la land, hyperbole, fantasy. All these guys know this, but they can't help but look anyway! The anticipation and excitement has them by the short and curlys - as for me, I'm forcing myself to hold out until 1st December.
 

Go Native

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According to McNads that's in la-la land, hyperbole and fantasy so don't get too excited yet!
tongue.gif
 
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Mrstr_Chief

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I think forecasting snowfall for Japan is much easier than Australia, in terms of 'ok, yes it will snow in 5 days time" instead of what we are used to in Oz, "yes it will snow 50cm in 5 days time, the chats are great....*three days later* hmmm.... loooks like just a dusting"
 

Sandy

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McNads said:
Any projection greater then 4 days out is la-la land, hyperbole, fantasy. All these guys know this, but they can't help but look anyway! The anticipation and excitement has them by the short and curlys - as for me, I'm forcing myself to hold out until 1st December.

There is a difference....

In Australia, we rely on a cold front to bring us snow. If it is accompanied by a low pressure trough in the right place, it could snow a lot. If the whole thing is in the wrong place, it could rain a lot.

OTOH, in Japan, all that's required is for a fresh WIND to be coming from the right direction for it to snow A LOT. That's it.

So from that point of view, in Australia the conditions have to be precise, which often means that it can't be predicted more than 4-5 days ahead.(if that)
In Japan, you can sometimes pick it from 7-8+ days out, because all that required is a general shift to the correct wind direction.
 
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Go Native

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Some spectacular storms around Niseko this evening just ahead of the frontal system moving through. Pity there's going to be bugger all moisture left when the colder air arrives.
 

MH

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Our long range forecast for Japan has been predicting a much colder than average winter for a few months now (consistent with a La Nina). The latest issue predicts decile 2 temperatures in Dec, Jan and Feb (this means in the coldest 20% of years). The types of weather patterns required to produce consistently lower than average temps in Japan are the same that produce snowfalls. So it's quite likely Japan will see an early start to the season and a good season through the peak.
 

Sandy

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MH said:
Our long range forecast for Japan has been predicting a much colder than average winter for a few months now (consistent with a La Nina). The latest issue predicts decile 2 temperatures in Dec, Jan and Feb (this means in the coldest 20% of years). The types of weather patterns required to produce consistently lower than average temps in Japan are the same that produce snowfalls. So it's quite likely Japan will see an early start to the season and a good season through the peak.

This was discussed earlier in the thread.
 
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cin

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MH said:
Our long range forecast for Japan has been predicting a much colder than average winter for a few months now (consistent with a La Nina). The latest issue predicts decile 2 temperatures in Dec, Jan and Feb (this means in the coldest 20% of years). The types of weather patterns required to produce consistently lower than average temps in Japan are the same that produce snowfalls. So it's quite likely Japan will see an early start to the season and a good season through the peak.

The Japanese frog!
 
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Donza

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Yes and no...I like the low, but don't like the way that ridge is set up over Japan.
 
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seekingpow

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Reckon the low won't punch through? Yes you are right thought, unless it weakens that high could be strong enough to keep it anchored out to sea.
 

Donza

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seekingpow said:
Reckon the low won't punch through? Yes you are right thought, unless it weakens that high could be strong enough to keep it anchored out to sea.
Japanese snow fall weather is not dependant on lows as such

Sandy has written a good post on this.
 
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seekingpow

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Just excited for the first dump!

As long as I can ride strawberries in Niseko on Dec 31 when I arrive I'm happy
smile.gif


Up to 2 metres a week is not uncommon in Hokkaido in late December if the high's stack up so not too worried yet.
 
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Sandy

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seekingpow said:
Reckon the low won't punch through? Yes you are right thought, unless it weakens that high could be strong enough to keep it anchored out to sea.

smitty484 said:
Well the low is not needed to sit over the mainland for precipitation, but it helps to push NW winds over the mainland if it is positioned to the north of Hokkaido.

Sandy said:
In Australia, we rely on a cold front to bring us snow. If it is accompanied by a low pressure trough in the right place, it could snow a lot. If the whole thing is in the wrong place, it could rain a lot.

OTOH, in Japan, all that's required is for a fresh WIND to be coming from the right direction for it to snow A LOT. That's it.

In fact, a low pressure trough over Japan is often BAD!!!! When located over central Japan, for example, it is about the only time that Hokkaido gets rain!!!!
 
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Sandy

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smitty484 said:
Sandy I wasn't talking about a low pressure over the mainland. I was saying north in the Sea of Okhotsk.

Yes, I know, I was responding to seekingpow's statement about low pressure.

You said that "the low is not needed to sit over the mainland for precipitation", and I was reinforcing that by saying that it can also be bad if it DOES sit there.
 
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Donza

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seekingpow said:
Pretty cold temps surrounding the low to the north. Would it pull lower latitude air in if it moved south?
Yeah it will...but when you have a strong low to the north of Hokkiado it also orientates the placement and shape of the highs over Siberia in a negative fashion IMO. I think the best situtaion is a low near the sea of okhotsk of around 1000hpa
You don't need that strong a gradient to produce snow. Just a prolonged and well directed fetch. It will pick moisture up on the way.
 
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Sandy

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seekingpow said:
Pretty cold temps surrounding the low to the north. Would it pull lower latitude air in if it moved south?

Yes, it will, but if it moves TOO far south, it will drag WARM air from the south onto Hokkaido.

The key winter pattern is a big HIGH over Mongolia and northern China.
 
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Sandy

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seekingpow said:
Sorry, I see what you mean. The one out to the west

To be clear, you don't need ANY low pressure for it to snow a lot in Japan!!!!!

All you need is WIND from the right direction, and the "Lake Effect" will do the rest:

HakubaWindsz.jpg
 
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