The coming Japanese season 2011-2012 weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 4, 2011.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even though it's a few months away, it's time once again to take a look at the coming Japanese season!!! [​IMG]

    A typical Japanese summer season looks like this:

    Average Maximum day time temperatures in Tokyo(back to 1876):

    Jan : 9.01
    Feb : 9.42
    Mar : 12.50
    Apr : 17.96
    May : 22.04
    Jun : 25.00
    Jul : 28.84
    Aug : 30.46
    Sep : 26.56
    Oct : 21.01
    Nov : 16.18
    Dec : 11.50

    For the last ten years, it looks a bit different:

    Jan : 9.95
    Feb : 10.96
    Mar : 14.15
    Apr : 19.14
    May : 22.86
    Jun : 26.31
    Jul : 30.07
    Aug : 31.28
    Sep : 27.64
    Oct : 22.13
    Nov : 17.04
    Dec : 12.28

    For summer temperatures, it must be remembered that the average daily maximum in both Sydney and Melbourne in the peak of summer (Feb) is about 3.5 degrees less than in August in Tokyo.

    So how has the current summer in Tokyo developed? Here are the figures for 2011:

    May : 22.2
    Jun : 26.0
    Jul : 30.9
    Aug : 31.2

    These are fairly close to average for the last ten years, except for July, which was around 0.8 degrees higher.

    The distribution of the temperature this year was a bit different though.

    May was close to average, but it was very cool early in the month, but was had a couple of 30 degree days plus a typhoon late in the month, which was unusual. Early June was cool, but then it got hotter than usual, and this persisted right through July. The first 3 seeks of August was a lot hotter than usual (probably averaging above 33 degrees), but a strangely cool period started on Aug 19th, with averages in the low - mid 20s, and persisted for about a week. This brought the average back to 31.2 degrees.

    In 2010, the hot weather persisted right the through September (2010 was a very hot summer in Japan, with Tokyo averaging 33.5 in Aug, with night time av min of 27.0 degrees) This seemed to correlate with the expectation of a hot summer associated with a La Nina.

    The feeling in 2011, is maybe slightly different to September 2010. The general feeling is that the summer has "turned the corner", even though the next week has 30-31 degrees forecast for Tokyo. Hokkaido should be warmer than average over the next few days, with the passage of the typhoon dragging warmer air from the south.

    There is talk that the La Nina may return in the next couple of months. Last year, it looks like the La Nina was responsible for the colder than average January, so we'll see how this develops!!!
     
    #1 Sandy, Sep 4, 2011
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  2. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Great work Sandy, so we would be happy if La Nina returned is that correct? If I remember correctly, Jan was particularly good this year, especially up Hokkaido there was some big falls and then it quieten down a bit towards the end of Feb, just as I got there.
     
  3. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Just read GoNative's post in the other La Nina thread where he answered the same question. No its a countdown until I fly out
     
  4. damian

    damian A Local

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    La Nina or not, I really do not know, but it was a great great Jan to mid-Feb season in Honshu with less sporadic big (huge) dumps and more even snowfalls of smaller amounts with more consistently cold temps (a welcome blessing this far south where a sunny day means warm temps at the lower altitudes).
     
  5. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Is that the first cooler system coming through out of Siberia, China and across North Korea next week?
     
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Are you sure...?
     
  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What is a cooler system?

    If you're thinking a system will arrive in the next 4 weeks, with highs in the mid teens, then the answer is an uncategorical NO.


    Central Japan will stay in the low 30s or mid/high 20s until the end of September.
     
  9. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yakutsk in Russia has temps of about 8C to 14C at the moment. Next week that should look more like -3C to 8C or -1C to 5C. It's a long way north though so there will be no noticable change around Japan, but I always like seeing it start to drop into negative temps. In winter temps will probably be between -20C and -60C.

    [​IMG]

    Yakutsk in winter when the freezing Siberian temps are in full force.

    [​IMG]
     
    #9 smitty484, Sep 4, 2011
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  10. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And what we're after. The Siberian High pressure system.

    [​IMG]
     
    #10 smitty484, Sep 4, 2011
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  11. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Certainly some cooler air moving into Siberia but it won't make it down to China or Korea. Will briefly make it down to the northern border of Mongolia though by the looks of it.

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/ea.850.html

    We can keep an eye on snowcover in Siberia as it develops over the coming weeks here. Good early snowcover across Siberia has been linked to how strong and stable the high develops.

    http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif
     
    #11 Go Native, Sep 4, 2011
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  12. damian

    damian A Local

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    Not in Hakuba, I don't expect. High teens/low twenties will probably be the high temps after mid Sep.

    Tue Wed next week may see us not get above 20 for a full 24-36 hours.
     
    #12 damian, Sep 4, 2011
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  13. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    great diagram, smitty. Nice and simple for us uneducated.
     
    #13 ratherb@thesnow, Sep 4, 2011
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  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was meaning at sea level not 800m high [​IMG]
     
    #14 Sandy, Sep 4, 2011
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  15. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    Bloody japan and the australia-esque latitides and rediculously cold winter temps.

    Soo jealous ;D
     
  16. damian

    damian A Local

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    Japan really does cheat the system. Hakuba and other Nagano ski resorts are in line with somewhere between the very top of North Africa and the bottom of Greece. That Siberian high really saves the day. Without it, a mild place in winter. Yet people are surprised when they come here and feel the intense sun and warm air between storms come early Feb. I am forever reminding people how much further south of Canada we are.
     
  17. Olgreg

    Olgreg One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    God this is a good thread. I haven't put the summer wax on the skis here yet and the communal mind is looking to Siberian snow already!
     
  18. damian

    damian A Local

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    It gets exciting. I still have 8 foot high sunflowers in my garden and I find it almost impossible to imagine that they would be almost totally covered by peak season snow depth 5 to 6 months from now. The seasonal extremes are intense.

    [​IMG]
     
    #18 damian, Sep 4, 2011
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  19. TropicalPow

    TropicalPow One of Us

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    I'm with you guys. Love to get that excitment happening .

    I am doing back flips with anticipation.

    My new AKJJs should turn up tommorrow [ been tracking them ]
    Be able to do powder turns in the lounge !
    Now , new bindings, , pack, helmet cam, etc, etc

    God I luv Japan, can't wait,.
     
  20. Olgreg

    Olgreg One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ditto several fold. Got the new S7's in my little place at Dalgety, just waiting quietly to be loaded on a plane. Plus, I love the dung heap Damian.
     
  21. TropicalPow

    TropicalPow One of Us

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    [​IMG] Olgreg, I had to laugh at the dung heap too.

    My other thought was that it was a new volcano forming in the backyard !

    S7, isn't that Rossis version of the AKJJ ???
     
    #21 TropicalPow, Sep 4, 2011
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  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic [​IMG]
     
    #22 Sandy, Sep 4, 2011
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  23. TropicalPow

    TropicalPow One of Us

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    [​IMG] Sorry, couldn't help myself.
     
    #23 TropicalPow, Sep 4, 2011
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  24. Texy

    Texy Hard Yards

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    Sample size of 2 now [​IMG]
     
    #24 Texy, Sep 5, 2011
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  25. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    So I note a tight low and lots of blue coming down off the continent at the end of the current Unisys charts. First signs of a change in the weather? What level of temps can Hokkaido expect out of something like this? I'm still feeling my way through these northern hemi charts...
     
  26. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This chart shows 850 mb temps which is roughly 1500m asl. Still pretty warm over Hokkaido, but if the cold air pushes down there may be some snow on the higher peaks in Hokkaido.

    [​IMG]
     
    #26 smitty484, Sep 11, 2011
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  27. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Snow flurries on Asahidake in the 2nd half of September would certainly not be unusual at all.

    The colder air moving over Siberia has brought some snow with it [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Brooks Range in Alaska also covered nicely.
     
    #27 Go Native, Sep 11, 2011
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  28. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Things seem to appear to be starting to cool down later this week.
    Low teens overnight in Niigata later this week and almost single digits in Sapporo overnight by the weekend.

    Still Monsoonish in Tokyo but looks like the switch may be about to flick and the corner towards winter start to turn.
     
  29. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    Hey GN I'm going to miss those photo's of the first snow on Yotei that you posted each year. That was the first sign of the approaching season for me
     
  30. damian

    damian A Local

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    13C in Hakuba this morning. Summer finished yesterday.

    There is a lot of rain forecast to fall for the next two days (perhaps up to 15-20cm). This is based on computer model forecasts, not myself looking at complicated charts and making my own guess. That crowd has not fully arrived in this thread yet.
     
    #30 damian, Sep 20, 2011
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  31. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    First snows 2nd 3rd October?
     
  32. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like there could be some snow for the higher areas around then.

    [​IMG]
     
    #32 smitty484, Sep 22, 2011
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  33. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    First snows on the peaks already occurred!

    Asahidake on the 22nd

    [​IMG]

    Today on Fuji

    [​IMG]
     
    #33 Go Native, Sep 24, 2011
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  34. Olgreg

    Olgreg One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    What a beautiful sight. Excitement rising.
     
  35. damian

    damian A Local

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    The various modeled commercial services (snow-forecast.com and yr.no) have snow down to about 2000m on Monday. Though I am very disinclined to trust yr.no as they knowingly publish seriously incorrect wind speed forecasts for different altitudes (and they have acknowledged it to me). The same dangerous failing doesn't impact their temps for different altitudes.
     
  36. ausi ski bum

    ausi ski bum A Local

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    #36 ausi ski bum, Sep 27, 2011
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  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    hows the switch backs on Fuij...awesome
     
  38. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    It certainly looks like autumn has arrived in Hokkaido.
    The top temp's for Asahikawa, according to the Japan BOM are set to hit Sydney mid-winter highs of 13/14 next Sun & Mon.
     
  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The key for me is that the end of summer coincides with the September stationary boundary forming, and then pushing south of Japan.

    That's happened in the last week.

    [​IMG]
     
    #39 Sandy, Sep 27, 2011
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  40. damian

    damian A Local

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    Shiga is higher than most and colder inland - should get some next week?
     
    #40 damian, Sep 27, 2011
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  41. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey Sandy, can you explain for the uneducated like me what you are referring to?
    Is it that large high that is sitting over Siberia & extending its southern reaches toward the sea of Japan?
     
  42. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Take a look at the map, just south of Japan, there is a "wavey" line, with triangles one side, and semicircles on the other.

    This is a "front" but instead of being a cold front (like the one just tipping Hokkaido, curved line with the triangles), or a warm front, it is a "stationary boundary". This usually marks a boundary between warm and cooler air. There is usually rain falling along stationary boundary, and it moves only very slowly.

    May to July, it moves slowy from the Philipines to north/central Japan, where it is broken up by the cold fronts across northern Japan. This corresponds to the June/July rainy season.
    In September, it forms again briefly, then moves south of Japan, pulling cooler air from the north. To me, this signifies the end of summer.
     
    #42 Sandy, Sep 27, 2011
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  43. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can see what you are saying.. cheers [​IMG]
     
    #43 ojisan, Sep 27, 2011
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  44. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snows are coming to higher areas early October. Off this forecast areas like the top of Furano and Niseko could see some snow as well. Yewww

    [​IMG]
     
    #44 smitty484, Sep 27, 2011
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  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like high teens low 20s for tops in Tokyo early next week.....

    What a difference two weeks makes!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #45 Sandy, Sep 28, 2011
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  46. damian

    damian A Local

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    Welcome to the relief!

    We have a diurnal range of +5 to +20 at the moment. The sun is warming on the back but not hot, 50% humidity or less, crystal clear air. This is the best time of the year.

    View from the front door today:

    [​IMG]

    Sorry about the hop line running through the pic.
     
    #46 damian, Sep 28, 2011
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  47. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looking pretty good for snow at the start of October. I think we have a good chance of seeing some snow within resort areas on Hokkaido (albiet the higher slopes).

    02 October
    [​IMG]

    03 October
    [​IMG]
     
    #47 smitty484, Sep 29, 2011
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  48. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Snowforecast are predicting the freezing level to drop to 800m on Sunday night in the NIseko region. That's pretty damned low for early Oct!
     
  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow forecast for Ashikawa in Hokkaido tomorrow. Elevation 120m.
     
  50. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is that different to Asahikawa?