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The coming Japanese season 2011-2012 weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 4, 2011.

  1. ausi ski bum

    ausi ski bum A Local

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    Nice I head over next Tuesday
     
  2. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    so far 19-24th looks amazingly good for Nagano looks like could be the season starter! IMO

    *Looks like Sandy predicted pretty damn good!*
     
  3. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Anyone want to go out on a limb and ballpark an accumulation by new years in say somewhere like Nagano or Myoko?
     
  4. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    if all that comes off and the bit over chrissy turns out to be the goods then 2m (to village, more up on the mountain) isnt out of the question for places like Myoko, Nozawa etc IMO. Obviously there can be plenty of variance depending on proximity to the coast, mountainous surrounding etc. But its looking really good.
     
  5. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Sweet, will be fun to watch unfold. I'll be interested to experience myoko myself in feb and see its famous micro climate heavy falls in person. Everyone seems to say the Myoko region in particular can get very concentrated bursts much higher than say the Hakuba Valley.
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Hakuba valley is a long valley....
    Otari would get similar snowfalls to Myoko i would think
     
  7. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Closer to sea of Japan?
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Hai...and the ranges to the NW aren't as high i've been told
     
  9. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh I could prob have stuck Cortina in there as well for 2m to base, as you head away from the coast it will generally be less and places that are in bit of a rain shadow will also get less and elevation plays a key role. But all that aside, it's tasty and everwhere will do well IMO.
     
  10. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    freezing levels should be down to 600-850m IMO so no rain???
     
    #510 Korbzy, Dec 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  11. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    depends what time frame, the freeze level will fluctuate as it does depending on where the wind comes from. But with the NW I wouldnt be surprise if it snowed to sea level or close to it. IMO
     
  12. damian

    damian A Local

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    Myoko gets a lot of snow. Go there in late April and look at what has not melted. More than Hakuba, more than Otari.

    Hakuba observations: temps today at the bottom of the valley hit +9C. The Australian guy I quickly spoke to had the right idea: a short sleeved league shirt and no hat in Happo resort. Still looked cold at 9am though.

    It was zero at 2360m around lunch time. Light winds from SW, no clouds except the odd drifting pillow. Except for Fattwins who was at work, most of the enthusiastic and regular backcountry locals were up there today, and the first goggle tans were acquired. Great day.
     
  13. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some of the Myoko base below resort level

    [​IMG]
     
    #513 smitty484, Dec 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Otari (where Cortina is located) is closer to the sea of Japan, but that's not why it gets a lot of snow. It has to do with rising air and profile of the terrain the it passes over. Generally, the air must rise above around 400-600m for 20-30km for the air to cool sufficiently and for the moisture in the air to condense. Then, when it hits some high mountains (maybe above 1000m), it drops its load of snow. If some higher peaks block others, the blocked peaks don't get much snow.

    For Hakuba (and most of central Japan), the two most important factors are the direction of the wind and its strength.

    If the wind blows too far from the west, it rakes the coastal mountains from the side, and doesn't penetrate far enough inland to snow much. If it's more to the northeast, it is often a loop on a low pressure trough off eastern Hokkaido, the winds are too warm, and the lake effect doesn’t kick in. The ideal winds are from the north to northwest.

    If the wind is too light, it may pick up moisture, but then it doesn't hit the mountains and penetrate far enough from the coast to drop much snow on Hakuba which is 30-40km away.

    In the Hakuba area, if the wind is from NNW, most of the snow falls on the Sea of Japan side, and both Happo & Cortina get some snow, along with some blow over snow. (see below, blue shows snow) If you are looking from the top of a sunny Iwatake/Tsugaike on a fresh NNW wind, Happo & Goryu/47 will often be cloudy, and you can see that it is snowing there, because of snow blow over.
    On the other hand, if the wind is blowing directly from the north, while at Happo/Goryu/47/Iwatake/Tsugaike are still in the shadow of the higher peaks, at Cortina there are no higher peaks north, so Cortina gets most of the snow that would otherwise fall on higher peaks. (see above) This is why Cortina sometimes gets more snow (even twice as much) as Happo.

    [​IMG]
     
    #514 Sandy, Dec 15, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. damian

    damian A Local

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    Soooo, would it be off-topic to ask how Smitty came to be wearing tennis ball green at least one season before North America and Europe, and what happened to his dark poo brown one piece?
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, it would be off topic [​IMG]
     
    #516 Sandy, Dec 15, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. damian

    damian A Local

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  18. Morino

    Morino Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would be interesting to compare the snowfall at the base of Cortina and the base of Myoko Akakura.

    Both get ridiculous amounts of snow but wonder which one wins?

    Seki onsen gets more than both but that extra few kilometres for the snow to get to Akakura brings the total down a bit..
     
  19. damian

    damian A Local

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    3 years ago Cortina patrol used to take very accurate daily snow fall readings and published them for all to see online (not on their website). Unfortunately political maneuvering driven by self-interest seems to have killed this valuable process.
     
  20. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    Is there a Sandy weather app yet?

    /off topic.
     
  21. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] that's not me.
     
    #521 smitty484, Dec 15, 2011
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  22. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I observe light snow at Nozawa Onsen at the bottom of the mountain.
    Only a dusting at this stage.

    [​IMG]
     
    #522 seekingpow, Dec 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #523 Donza, Dec 16, 2011
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  24. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Looks like Haks faired a lot better than Noz so far
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #525 Donza, Dec 16, 2011
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  26. ausi ski bum

    ausi ski bum A Local

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    Snowing up at Shiga on the cams
     
  27. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Once that wind swings NW and that wind gets maximum exposure to the SOJ it will be on like DK

    IMO
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is what we wanna see at Hakuba!!!! This is just about the first time it's looked like this so far on the valley snow cam.

    [​IMG]
     
    #528 Sandy, Dec 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow forecast in Fukuoka (Kuyshu) Fri/Sat [​IMG]

    Snow forecast in Niigata city 5 out of the next 7 days. [​IMG]
     
    #529 Sandy, Dec 16, 2011
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  30. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Been snowing lightly here for about an hour, not enough to cover tracks though.

    [​IMG]
     
    #530 Nozawaman, Dec 16, 2011
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  31. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO there should be more snow at Hakuba & Nozawa (and most of the resorts in central Japan) as the northerly wind gets stronger through today.

    Since it's looking like being a northerly, rather than a northwesterly, Nozawa & Cortina should do well, along with Kagura.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    hey Sandy..
    Question
    See the above cams I posted..i'm trying to work out whereabouts they are on 148.
    I'm pretty sure I know the bottom two...one is just before Cortina turnoff and one is just before Otari village I think
    the top two have me stuffed
     
  33. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Looks like Niseko lucked out with only 25 cm for the night ........................
     
    #533 fletch, Dec 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's a lot of cold air streaming off the Asian mainland, but you can tell the wind it not strong at the moment. Because of this, the penetration of the clould is not very far, maybe only 20km.

    [​IMG]
     
    #534 Sandy, Dec 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not 100% sure, but if I was a betting man, I'd say they are all on the Omachi side not far from the lakes.

    Perhaps:
    1. Just before the road starts winding and before the first lake. (looking towards Hakuba)
    2. Looking back towards Omachi, just after the road starts winding.
    3. The winding bit in the woods just near Sanosaka (looking towards Omachi)
    4. The chain fitting bay just near the turn off to Kashimayari (looking towards Omachi). Behind the camera a couple of km up the road woudl be Yanaba.


    If this is correct, it is a sequence of locations, each further from Omachi. And if so, it's a good sign because the first & second cameras are least likely to get snow.
     
    #535 Sandy, Dec 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. DeskRider

    DeskRider One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    #536 DeskRider, Dec 16, 2011
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  37. Tonester

    Tonester Lift Line Nazi Ski Pass: Gold

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    What does your arthritic knee tell you about Shiga Kogen Sandy??
     
  38. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Luckily I don't have an arthritic knee!!!! [​IMG]

    Shiga Kogen is a bit further inland, so it needs more wind off the Sea of Japan for good falls of snow. But it's higher so early season snow stays there.
     
    #538 Sandy, Dec 16, 2011
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  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #539 Donza, Dec 16, 2011
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  40. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Looks like its getting heavier. Big flakes visible on those cams Donza posted
     
  41. damian

    damian A Local

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    Yes, snowing harder here in Hakuba now. 2-3cm per hour towards koruchina
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    prang?
     
    #542 Donza, Dec 16, 2011
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  43. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Neither Hakuba nor Nozawa does well on a westerly. The wind and the precipitation along with it rakes the coast and they end up with very little.
     
    #543 Sandy, Dec 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  44. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Just kicked back to NW and is coming down a lot better now [​IMG]
     
    #544 Nozawaman, Dec 16, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Use the new thread.