The coming Japanese season 2011-2012 weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 4, 2011.

  1. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    528 line is probably close to where Asahikawa is in central Hokkaido, but you would normally think it's not quite cold enough to snow there.

    [​IMG]
     
    #51 smitty484, Oct 2, 2011
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  2. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #52 smitty484, Oct 3, 2011
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  3. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    3 degrees and raining in Kutchan at the moment. WIll be snow down to pretty low levels tonight.
     
  4. damian

    damian A Local

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    A different view this morning.

    [​IMG]
     
    #54 damian, Oct 4, 2011
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  5. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Hakuba range & Mount Myoko showing some love this morning...


    The local beat me to it =D
     
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In Yokohama this morning, it got down to 15 degrees, the first time in around 5 months, I'd say.

    Also, it was clear enough to see Mt Fuji from Yokohama today, and the southern side is covered with snow, probably down to 1000m!! Very unusual for early October.... this is the sort of scene I'm usually looking for in early November!!

    [​IMG]
     
    #56 Sandy, Oct 4, 2011
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  7. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    When do you start to see the big high pressure cells forming over the Mongolian steppe & Siberia in a typical lead up to winter?
     
  8. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's one. Although it's not super strong and I certainly won't expect it to stick around.

    [​IMG]
     
    #58 smitty484, Oct 4, 2011
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  9. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] to the pics in here. Keep them coming [​IMG]
     
    #59 smitty484, Oct 4, 2011
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  10. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Generally, I expect to see them in the right place from around mid December.
     
    #60 Sandy, Oct 4, 2011
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  11. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    I cant post CAM pictures from my work computer but looking at the Niseko village CAM this morning its looks as there are signs of snow on the upper runs. The Snow-Forecast.com CAM for Hirafu is pointed toeards the construction of the new Hirafu Gondola, worth a look
     
  12. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Can't see any on Yotei although it had a dusted cap over the weekend...
     
  13. ratherb@thesnow

    ratherb@thesnow Hard Yards

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    #63 ratherb@thesnow, Oct 4, 2011
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  14. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Definitely snow down to pretty low levels on Annupuri.

    [​IMG]

    And of course Yotei

    [​IMG]
     
    #64 Go Native, Oct 4, 2011
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  15. fattwins

    fattwins One of Us

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    A warm week coming up though. Hope to have good weather for the Japanese National Cricket Tournament in Fuji city. I think a team from Hokkaido is coming down to play.
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next week 23-26 degrees in Tokyo, but that's just like normal weather.
     
  17. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    It's been freezing here Sandy. I think because it came on so suddenly everyone was unprepared. Last week was tshirt weather. This week jackets and beanies and an extra blanket at night.
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even though it's 15-17 degrees in the mornings, some of the girls around Yokohama have been wearing their winter down jackets.... [​IMG]
     
    #68 Sandy, Oct 5, 2011
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  19. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] soundsl like Brisbane.
     
    #69 smitty484, Oct 5, 2011
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  20. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    What sort of conditions would I be likely to encounter in Nozawa & Myoko mid February?

    Looking back of Snowjapan reports for The past few Febs have been a bit hit and miss in terms of snow consistency and appear to have been a bit of a non event after a strong start to the month.
    Just wondering whether I pack heavier warmer gear or not.

    Were the past warmer, drier febs on Honshu the possible development of a trend of flash in the pan weather variability?

    Hopefully Smitty doesn’t pack his Brissy weather this time!
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Before 20th feb - rain and warm
    After snowy
     
    #71 Donza, Oct 5, 2011
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  22. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    ha ha yeah - going off the last 2 years
     
  23. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I haven't been watching Honshu weather patterns long enough, but the previous few Febs certainly dont seem to stand out in the epic snow department. Yeh there have been good days in there, but not a patch on the past few Januarys.
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    its seriously all up in the air...

    pardon the pun

    Honshu in 2005 Feb 1st to 21st (my first trip -to Niseko..but we were looking at Honshu ) looked pretty epic
     
  25. damian

    damian A Local

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    January, in the first two weeks, or perhaps the middle two weeks, is where I'd put my money. Colder with more intense snowfalls in big dumps, which is apparently the thing people like. Far less chance of rain. Better backcountry as a generalisation.
     
  26. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Just curious as to whether the last couple of years have been the exception rather than the rule aye.
    I'm giving myself 14 days of riding Honshu this time to maximise chance of some powder days.
     
  27. damian

    damian A Local

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    #77 damian, Oct 5, 2011
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  28. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Funny though, Honshu saw more pow days than Hokkaido during the first 2 weeks of Feb this year.
     
  29. damian

    damian A Local

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    Hokkaido had a shitty Feb and Honshu had a normal one?
     
  30. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Well hopefuly Myoko is on form and back to long term trend. After seeing Rabids TR I hope they get some mid Feb powder as a trip to Seki Onsen is in the pipeline. But thats for the travel thread.
     
  31. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    #81 seekingpow, Oct 5, 2011
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  32. damian

    damian A Local

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    I find that weather website to be something of an echochamber of, um, related interests.
     
  33. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    That's what I was thinking Damian...
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    umm cough steven lee in hakuba cough
     
  35. damian

    damian A Local

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    yeah cough the very interesting and important things I could reveal cough
     
  36. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah i'd say they both had pretty poor Febs with regard to fresh snowfall. The 2nd half of Feb saw warm temps and no snow on Honshu (however March was much better). Hokkaido saw a lot less snow than normal over Feb.
     
    #86 smitty484, Oct 5, 2011
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  37. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think in the last 5 years or so, January has been the model of consistency in Honshu.
     
  38. damian

    damian A Local

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    Yes. As I said last page, Jan is where I'd put my money.
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. Smitty was in Hokks in Feb [​IMG]
     
    #89 Vermillion, Oct 6, 2011
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  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    march was epic in honhsu though for pow.....just after I left...which was around the time the earthquake happened as well
     
  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was actually hard to get to the snow in March. Petrol was an issue through the middle part of March after the earthquake, and the trains were not running to regular schedules..... Many expats had left, and the locals weren't very motivated to go, and there was also pressure to "stay home" in case there was another big one. I cancelled a couple of planned trips.

    March was definitely a good one for snow though...
     
    #91 Sandy, Oct 6, 2011
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  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #92 Donza, Oct 6, 2011
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  43. damian

    damian A Local

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    Yes, but unfortunately it was also persistently unstable with a lot of avalanches for weeks.

    /all mountain perspective.
     
    #93 damian, Oct 6, 2011
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  44. abe81

    abe81 Hard Yards

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    February for the last 3 years has been pretty bad, but I think in general it should get almost as much snow as January.

    In my short experience in Japan it just always seems to return to the average... ie. period of unseasonally bad snow gets followed by dumpage and vice versa.

    How do you do your accumulated snow depth measurement Damian? If it's dumping and you make a measurement every hour, and then brush away the snow and start a new measurement, you would have a much higher number than if you left it for a few hours (or overnight), because the weight of the snow would mean it just keeps packing down. I've always been interested in how it was done, or if there was some accepted standard for doing it properly.
     
  45. damian

    damian A Local

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    You are very correct. Larger gaps between measurements reduces the cumulative snowfall due to settlement.

    I don't know if there is an accepted standard, however the method I use is the same one employed by avalanche forecasters in Canada: 24 hourly measurements, clearing the measurement board each time. Some places do 12 hourly measurements - it is not at all uncommon, but that just doesn't fit into my schedule reliably enough, and it adds considerably to my workload for very little benefit.

    Having said all that: measuring new snowfall depth is woefully inaccurate anyway, and so sensitive to location in the valley at the macro scale. At the micro scale, two measurement stations 20m apart can sometimes produce very different results if there was the right wind and there are surrounding irregularities in terrain, snow surface shape and vegetation/structures.

    Which takes me back to reducing the interval between recording measurements to come up with a more accurate cumulative figure: you can use electronic devices to take a recording every hour, but that are incredibly inaccurate with wild disparity between different models, or the same model placed some distance apart.
     
  46. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Up around Niseko Jan is definitely much snowier on average than Feb. Kutchan averages around 3.8m in Jan and 2.6m in Feb.
     
    #96 Go Native, Oct 9, 2011
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  47. damian

    damian A Local

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    Jan is the raging month of deep winter in Japan. Feb is the month between winter and spring. At least for middle Honshu.
     
  48. abe81

    abe81 Hard Yards

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    Measuring every 24 hours is an impressive commitment, and I'm sure tonnes of resorts in Japan wouldn't even do that.

    I guess it makes a lot of the claims of "y resort gets xm of snow/year" pretty subjective. Would love to see what the figures would be if a measurement every hour could be done accurately (not that it means anything - but snow depth statistics give me the horn)
     
    #98 abe81, Oct 9, 2011
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  49. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a good burst of cold air coming for Hokkaido around the 24th October. If this map holds then the resorts in Hokkaido should all see snow down to village level. The cold air doesn't appear to be pushing all the way down to Nagano areas due to the direction of the wind, but the higher mountains down there should get some more snowfall as well.

    [​IMG]
     
    #99 smitty484, Oct 15, 2011
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  50. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Right now we have a balmy and humid 27.5 degrees.... almost tropical in Tokyo today. There a big stationary boundary pushing warm air up the southern flank.

    However, I think that after tomorrow, we won't see a temperature like that until May/June next year, so bring on the winter!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #100 Sandy, Oct 15, 2011
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