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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 4, 2011.
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow...
29 forecast for Tokyo today.....
Personally, I can't see it myself, but this air is being pushed up from close to Taiwan!!!
Still looks to be some interesting weather around the 24/25 Oct. That low should move NE and start to suck in the cold Siberian air over Japan. Depending on the strength of the wind and direction, Japan should see some cold and wintery weather.
JMA predicting snow possible for a short period all the way down to Kutchan overnight tonight.
Years of watching snow predictions has taught me this: Whether it's three inches of fresh or three feet, you can have a bag of fun in (almost) any conditions with the right crew and the right mindset.
The best skier out there is the one who's enjoying himself the most...
Nice and cool this morning.... 14.7 in Yokohama!!!
Some 'interesting' weather descending over the next week
What was interesting? Doesn't look like it's getting very cold anywhere, AFAICT.
I am with you there Sandy.
Checking the forcasts, it certainly appears in the North that the cool Autumn weather is set in, there isn't any really cold weather on the horizon yet.
As a side note, I know Kurodake is usually the first place in Japan that opens for skiiers/boarders... Any idea whether these higher areas of Hokkaido have started to get decent snow?
Looks cold up top, I have been watching the Yokoteyama web cam for signs of change, I figure at 2300 mtrs it has a good chance of some early snow.
I usually estimate that there is no real chance of consistent snow falls in the central Japanese resorts, until the tempratures in Tokyo are consistently below 10 degree max during the day.
The max temps in Tokyo in the next week read:
22, 25, 19, 19, 20, 22, 21
I'd say that the consistent snow is 6-8 weeks away, as usual, so there is no real reason to get excited any time soon!!!
In Hokkaido consistent snowfalls to reasonably low levels usually start from around the 2nd week in Nov. Consistent snowfalls right to sea level not until around late Nov/early Dec. In the early stages though it can alternate frequently between rain and snow so decent accumulation at lower levels is generally a week or two later. This is about the average from my time there. Obviously every year is different though and it can be a week or two earlier or later.
First sign of purple on the 500mb maps that I have seen since last season. Certainly getting cold up north (Siberia) now. Yakutsk firmly in the -15 to -25C range, which is a lot colder than that 0 to -5C it was only a couple of weeks ago. Shouldn't be too long that, with the right winds, we should see some snowfalls in Hokkaido (and then Honshu).
Day time temps in Sapporo still look above average for this time of year.
When it cools it will likely come on quickly.
Are the trees showing much colour / sign of shedding over there yet?
The trees in my garden are going yellow and brown.
Walking in the forest is very nice at the moment.
It's warm here in Hakuba, not even close to snowing. Forecast is warm. First skiing is perhaps a little late. I usually donate some ptex before Oct 30th.
Yes Nozawa's PR was facebook posting that they have a month to run before scheduled opening of lifts.
At this rate that is very unrealistic going off the late starts past few years. I think 15-25 December is more reaslitc unless things change quickly (which may happen too).
Just to clarify, I'm talking backcountry where i donate my ptex to the rocks in late October. I wouldn't even dream of reliable lift skiing in this part of Nagano until Dec 15th or so.
For the sake of anxiety, 5th Nov last year (20km down range from Hakuba). Can't see it happening this week.
I'm not too concerned. Just more amped to see the season develop.
Yeh not much on the horizon at this stage.
Snow in 10 days
Later starts of decent snow (i.e. mid-late December) seem to be the order of the past 3-4 years in Honshu
What's the logic here Donz?
It will just happen...
the ole low to the north east ...moving away and establishing a NW fetch.
Uppers temps and Sea level temps over Siberia look tidy.
Will be more Hokkaido (Furano me thinks) at first.
Japanese Potato, it will snow somewhere in Japan in the next 13 days, but not in the next 3 days.
Yeh maybe, but the models have been predicting this to happen in the 9-10 day range for a couple of weeks now, but nothing has eventuated. Has to happen eventually though.
Yeah GFS doesn't like it on its 16 day charts...
Has to happen soonish. Certainly consistent negative teens in central-east Russia now overnight.
-13 Â°C Mostly CloudyTomorrow
-7 Â°C OvercastTomorrow Night
-13 Â°C OvercastWednesday
-11 | -15 Â°C Mostly CloudyThursday
-5 | -15 Â°C Mostly CloudyFriday
-9 | -12 Â°C Partly Cloudy
IMO it still looks like its a ways off in Honshu.. Still pretty warm in Yokohama this week! 20-24 deg over the next week...
The Japan Meteorological Agency is forecasting above average temps through November, weighted towards the front end though (next 2 weeks).
Average temps for December in Niigata and Nagano with average precipitation, above ave temps in Hokkaido, ave precip in Niseko and above ave in central and south eastern areas
Below average temps for Jan in Niigata and Nagano with above average precipitation in Niigata, average in Hokkaido and below average in Nagano. Average T's and Precip in Hokkaido
They have not started forecasting snowfalls yet... Maybe next month or start of December.
Would be interested to compare forecasts like this from last years autumn compared to the winter actuals to see how accurate they were.
Take a look here:
They have posted a snow forecast for the winter months. Average outlook at present. Average is pretty damned good in Japan
Over the last couple of years they have been pretty spot on. I'll take average temps and precipitation any day!
I was wrong!
The valley fog just cleared here is a magical moment and revealed the bright blue sky and mountains. There is a thin spray of snow right up on the peaks from late yesterday.
I wish I could have shared my coffee experience this morning when the thick mist instantly vanished. What a view!
Today at 8am http://livecam.vill.hakuba.nagano.jp/livecam/?id=2&Y=2011&M=11&D=1&H=8&I=0
still misty eyed
Donz, there are still blobs of fog on that side of the valley. Watching it burn up now.
I edited in a link above.
Damn! That was a moment when the fog cleared. Massive rush of natural high (timed with coffee).
cool...<wanders off to get coffee to share moment>
Enjoy the coffee, here's what I've got for your view out the window this morning:
Hakuba's Three Peaks
Our highest peak (also incorrectly named, like the town)
What splatter of snow we received all fell on the more northern/seaward peaks. Almost nothing just 8km south. Nor up the ridge from Happo (Iwatake ski area in the foreground)
am having ramen now cheers damien
It a start, the Siberian high is still relatively weak but the ingredients are coming together. Turns available in Daisetzusan after this....
Instead of the 20-23 degrees that Tokyo has been experiencing lately, the next week looks like bringing more like 16-17 degrees.
I saw Fuji this morning, and the snow line seems to be at around 3000m.
I can feel in the air tonight.
I heard a short comment that Hakuba ski resorts are anticipating not [fully?] opening until after xmas based on the longer term forecast of when the snow machine is expected to turn on. Normally I think forecasts with that kind of accuracy are typically not worth a pinch myself - anything can happen, however distinct systems in Japan seem to be quite reliably predicted. There is no grey here, no transition: seasonal weather patterns turn on/off on a certain day. So winter doesn't start until it starts, and until then, it isn't winter. That is expected to be delayed this year.
Other than that, is is wonderfully cool and drizzly and windy here with trees swaying and leaves flying. The hills are glowing gold and burnt orange and red. Such an incredible time of year. The appearance of the landscape changes so dramatically from summer to autumn to winter. It is a powerful thing to experience.
Personally, I think the first huge dump will happen between 18th & 22nd December.
You heard it here first!
Your your long term punt record for first Honshu dumps of the season has been pretty good last two years Sandy.
Will watch with interest!
some pics please Damian!
I tried a few days ago to gets some pics and I just can't capture the brightness richness of the colours, nor the collage effect. You need to walk amongst it, or glance out the window and be struck by the aburdity of the colours. The pictures I take just look like reddish or half dead trees.
still looking on track