The coming Japanese season 2011-2012 weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 4, 2011.

  1. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Winter has been taking its time last few years.
    Late starts seem to be forming a bit of a trend.
     
  2. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ummm......

    Who says it's a late start?
     
    #152 Sandy, Nov 7, 2011
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  3. damian

    damian A Local

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    Compared to the US and EU it is very late. But that is not what was meant.
     
  4. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    More taking a tangent that IF, first big dump comes late Dec as per previous couple of years for central Japan, that would be a slightly later trend than the mean.

    That being said, central Russia is starting to get pretty cold.
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I judge the start of winter is when the Japanese Maple leaves turn to orange and red in Tokyo. Usually the first couple of weeks in December.
     
  6. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nozawa opening later this year in response to the later starts of the past couple of years.
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Lack of a large landmass means a more sudden onset of seasons IMO, compared to Europe and the states where the seasons are more gradual.


    Japan is much like NZ in that regard.
     
  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No I disagree....

    The seasons in Japan are gradual and predictable. Every summer in Tokyo, between mid July and mid September, EVERY day will be between 28 and 35 degrees. Every night will be between 24 and 28 degrees. The summer in Japan is consistently hot and humid. Every month afterwards makes its relentless drop towards winter. Last half of October will have highs of between 22 and 26, first half of November 16 & 22, last half 13 and 18.

    IMO, the Siberian northerly winds overpower the effect of the Kuroshio Current around mid December in most of Japan (but not Hokkaido where the Oyashio Current prevails).... then we get winter.

    The reason the winters are quite late & short in Japan is because of the extended hot summers and the Kuroshio Current .
     
    #158 Sandy, Nov 7, 2011
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  9. damian

    damian A Local

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    I think Donza meant the sudden onset of a season - something that we observe here in the mountains frequently. Winter turns on and off like a switch: it turns on sometime in Dec then off in March. When it happens, everyone knows it and claims it. When winter finishes it is even more abrupt. You get up one day and bang, winter is over, and everything is different from that day on. Similar for summer. I can tell you the day summer starts and finishes just by walking around outside.
     
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah pretty much....
     
    #160 Donza, Nov 7, 2011
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  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the Pacific side (not in the mountains) the seasons in Japan are gradual and predictable.
    That's not to say that there are not quantum jumps in seasons, but instead of 4 seasons, Tokyo has more like 8 seasons.

    For example, I could tell when summer finished (before mid September this year) but it was a change from 31-35 every day, to 27-30 every day, corresponding to the typhoon season. But I'd call it late summer season rather than autumn.


    It is also the large land mass that gives Japan its cold winters and all of the snow, in fact....
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was 13.2 degrees overnight in Tokyo.... the lowest overnight temperature since early May!!!
    It's heading in the right direction!!!!
    After today, three days with maximums of 16 degrees forecast, and lows of 9-13 degrees!!! FINALLY!!!
    I may have to wear a jacket!!! [​IMG]
     
    #162 Sandy, Nov 8, 2011
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  13. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I'm sure the local Yokohama girls will have their down jackets out for those temps [​IMG]
     
    #163 seekingpow, Nov 8, 2011
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  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you kidding??? I saw a few(Yokohama & Tokyo) with their down jackets last weekend when it was 16 overnight and 20 during the day!!!! [​IMG] Sometimes, they dress according to "season" not temperature!!!
     
    #164 Sandy, Nov 8, 2011
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  15. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I love Japan's complexities and contradictions!
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, I see funny stuff multiple times a week.... [​IMG]
     
    #166 Sandy, Nov 8, 2011
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  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like snow in Hokkaido around Mon/Tue 14th-15th Nov.
     
  18. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
    #168 smitty484, Nov 8, 2011
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  19. ausi ski bum

    ausi ski bum A Local

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    There was snow on the Yokoteyama cam today
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    "Looks like" means there might or there might not be. It's the same as IMO. Otherwise I would have said "There will be snow Mon/Tue 14th-15th Nov".
     
    #170 Sandy, Nov 8, 2011
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  21. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    According to wunderground.com, Chitose is -4 deg this morning.
    I think their thermometer is at the air base.
     
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    and if anyone is interested I use this model/chart for Japan
    GFS to 384 hours
     
    #172 Donza, Nov 9, 2011
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  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This looks good for snow
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    dark green is 25mm to 50mm
     
    #173 Donza, Nov 9, 2011
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  24. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Will that be cold enough for central Japan?
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yes to a certain snowlevel..i'll have a punt and say 900 metres .

    IMO looks like a myoko storm
     
    #175 Donza, Nov 9, 2011
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  26. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at the 540 line. As a very rough approximation, the snow line might be around 1400m along that line. The 528 line might approximate a snow line of 0m.
     
    #177 Sandy, Nov 9, 2011
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  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn't call it epic just yet!!! [​IMG]

    My approximation would place the snow line at 1300-1400m at Nozawa Onsen, for example. Most of the Japanese resorts in central Japan have bases between 500-800m, so personally I can't see snow down to the base of any resort, except perhaps Shiga Kogen. However, there's a good chance Yokoteyama (at Shiga Kogen) will be top to bottom snow, IMO.
     
    #178 Sandy, Nov 9, 2011
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  29. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO access not as optomistic with regard to the strength of the high and therefore doesn't have the cold air pushing down as far. Looks good for Hokkaido, but not so much for Honshu.

    I'll see what the next updates bring, but it doesn't have that epic feel of a big high over Siberia drawing the cold air all the way down over Honshu.

    Still I wouldn't expect much this early in the season anyway.
     
  30. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Just nice to see some progress towards winter [​IMG]
     
    #180 seekingpow, Nov 9, 2011
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  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    First big High appears at 360 hours [​IMG] on GFS

    we'll see

    but IMO its a Furano and central Hokkaido system
     
    #181 Donza, Nov 9, 2011
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  32. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    I just had a peak on JMA.. They have the snowman symbol up for a couple of places in Hokkaido on Mon & Tues, so it looks like the snowline is creeping down up North
     
  33. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    12.2 degrees overnight in Tokyo.... lowest for 6 months...
     
  34. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Do you think this will signal the next iteration downwards in temps towards winter?
     
  35. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm dunno bro. The way temps are trending atm, I feel we may see an early start to summer beginning around 10 Dec.
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    my data says otherwise bro...

    though the warm SST and Jelly fish bloom off Niigata will lower the chance of epic snow for Nozawa until late feb.
     
    #186 Donza, Nov 9, 2011
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  37. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Hoping to avoid The Smitty Factor for my three weeks in Feb
     
    #187 seekingpow, Nov 9, 2011
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  38. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm there all Feb, you cannot avoid it [​IMG]
     
    #188 smitty484, Nov 9, 2011
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  39. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #189 seekingpow, Nov 9, 2011
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  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doomed......
     
    #190 Sandy, Nov 10, 2011
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  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In Tokyo, low of 11 top of 13 forecast tomorrow. Often a bit of rain will keep the top temperature down.

    Looks like the next clearly defined change in the season may be coming next week. Moving from early autumn to late autumn, IMO.
     
  42. Morino

    Morino Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    #192 Morino, Nov 11, 2011
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  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    snow to sea level anywhere from niigata (and maybe gifu) north
    my take
    quite a moist storm too.

    duration looks good.

    will rain before hand though...
    [​IMG]
     
    #193 Donza, Nov 11, 2011
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  44. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here in Yokohama, we've had a maxiumum of 14.0 degrees, but that was at 1:30am....

    It's been heading down ever since!!

    Now 11.7 degrees and raining.

    (Tokyo less than half a degree warmer)
     
  46. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    good signs [​IMG]
     
    #196 woggybot, Nov 11, 2011
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  47. TOFF

    TOFF Im kind of a big deal Ski Pass: Gold

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    #197 TOFF, Nov 11, 2011
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  48. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Looks like Hokkaido will lead charge again this season with a few cm's on Sunday. The small steps to 18 mtr season. Fingers crossed.
     
  49. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Hey fletch, how much to put in one of those cam setups ?
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #200 Donza, Nov 14, 2011
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