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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 4, 2011.
Winter has been taking its time last few years.
Late starts seem to be forming a bit of a trend.
Who says it's a late start?
Compared to the US and EU it is very late. But that is not what was meant.
More taking a tangent that IF, first big dump comes late Dec as per previous couple of years for central Japan, that would be a slightly later trend than the mean.
That being said, central Russia is starting to get pretty cold.
I judge the start of winter is when the Japanese Maple leaves turn to orange and red in Tokyo. Usually the first couple of weeks in December.
Nozawa opening later this year in response to the later starts of the past couple of years.
Lack of a large landmass means a more sudden onset of seasons IMO, compared to Europe and the states where the seasons are more gradual.
Japan is much like NZ in that regard.
No I disagree....
The seasons in Japan are gradual and predictable. Every summer in Tokyo, between mid July and mid September, EVERY day will be between 28 and 35 degrees. Every night will be between 24 and 28 degrees. The summer in Japan is consistently hot and humid. Every month afterwards makes its relentless drop towards winter. Last half of October will have highs of between 22 and 26, first half of November 16 & 22, last half 13 and 18.
IMO, the Siberian northerly winds overpower the effect of the Kuroshio Current around mid December in most of Japan (but not Hokkaido where the Oyashio Current prevails).... then we get winter.
The reason the winters are quite late & short in Japan is because of the extended hot summers and the Kuroshio Current .
I think Donza meant the sudden onset of a season - something that we observe here in the mountains frequently. Winter turns on and off like a switch: it turns on sometime in Dec then off in March. When it happens, everyone knows it and claims it. When winter finishes it is even more abrupt. You get up one day and bang, winter is over, and everything is different from that day on. Similar for summer. I can tell you the day summer starts and finishes just by walking around outside.
Yeah pretty much....
On the Pacific side (not in the mountains) the seasons in Japan are gradual and predictable.
That's not to say that there are not quantum jumps in seasons, but instead of 4 seasons, Tokyo has more like 8 seasons.
For example, I could tell when summer finished (before mid September this year) but it was a change from 31-35 every day, to 27-30 every day, corresponding to the typhoon season. But I'd call it late summer season rather than autumn.
It is also the large land mass that gives Japan its cold winters and all of the snow, in fact....
It was 13.2 degrees overnight in Tokyo.... the lowest overnight temperature since early May!!!
It's heading in the right direction!!!!
After today, three days with maximums of 16 degrees forecast, and lows of 9-13 degrees!!! FINALLY!!!
I may have to wear a jacket!!!
I'm sure the local Yokohama girls will have their down jackets out for those temps
Are you kidding??? I saw a few(Yokohama & Tokyo) with their down jackets last weekend when it was 16 overnight and 20 during the day!!!! Sometimes, they dress according to "season" not temperature!!!
I love Japan's complexities and contradictions!
Yep, I see funny stuff multiple times a week....
Looks like snow in Hokkaido around Mon/Tue 14th-15th Nov.
There was snow on the Yokoteyama cam today
"Looks like" means there might or there might not be. It's the same as IMO. Otherwise I would have said "There will be snow Mon/Tue 14th-15th Nov".
According to wunderground.com, Chitose is -4 deg this morning.
I think their thermometer is at the air base.
and if anyone is interested I use this model/chart for Japan
GFS to 384 hours
This looks good for snow
dark green is 25mm to 50mm
Will that be cold enough for central Japan?
Yes to a certain snowlevel..i'll have a punt and say 900 metres .
IMO looks like a myoko storm
Look at the 540 line. As a very rough approximation, the snow line might be around 1400m along that line. The 528 line might approximate a snow line of 0m.
I wouldn't call it epic just yet!!!
My approximation would place the snow line at 1300-1400m at Nozawa Onsen, for example. Most of the Japanese resorts in central Japan have bases between 500-800m, so personally I can't see snow down to the base of any resort, except perhaps Shiga Kogen. However, there's a good chance Yokoteyama (at Shiga Kogen) will be top to bottom snow, IMO.
IMO access not as optomistic with regard to the strength of the high and therefore doesn't have the cold air pushing down as far. Looks good for Hokkaido, but not so much for Honshu.
I'll see what the next updates bring, but it doesn't have that epic feel of a big high over Siberia drawing the cold air all the way down over Honshu.
Still I wouldn't expect much this early in the season anyway.
Just nice to see some progress towards winter
First big High appears at 360 hours on GFS
but IMO its a Furano and central Hokkaido system
I just had a peak on JMA.. They have the snowman symbol up for a couple of places in Hokkaido on Mon & Tues, so it looks like the snowline is creeping down up North
12.2 degrees overnight in Tokyo.... lowest for 6 months...
Do you think this will signal the next iteration downwards in temps towards winter?
Hmmm dunno bro. The way temps are trending atm, I feel we may see an early start to summer beginning around 10 Dec.
my data says otherwise bro...
though the warm SST and Jelly fish bloom off Niigata will lower the chance of epic snow for Nozawa until late feb.
Hoping to avoid The Smitty Factor for my three weeks in Feb
I'm there all Feb, you cannot avoid it
In Tokyo, low of 11 top of 13 forecast tomorrow. Often a bit of rain will keep the top temperature down.
Looks like the next clearly defined change in the season may be coming next week. Moving from early autumn to late autumn, IMO.
November 20th/21st looking very promising.
snow to sea level anywhere from niigata (and maybe gifu) north
quite a moist storm too.
duration looks good.
will rain before hand though...
Here in Yokohama, we've had a maxiumum of 14.0 degrees, but that was at 1:30am....
It's been heading down ever since!!
Now 11.7 degrees and raining.
(Tokyo less than half a degree warmer)
Looks like Hokkaido will lead charge again this season with a few cm's on Sunday. The small steps to 18 mtr season. Fingers crossed.
Hey fletch, how much to put in one of those cam setups ?
snow men on kutchan weather