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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 4, 2011.
For those interested in freezing levels It has just started snowing in Echoland now. 750 meters ASL
The temperature at the Hakuba weather station in the valley has dropped from 6.8 degrees at 5am, to 2.5 degrees at 11am.
and around 11 or so at midnight
The cold air hasn't hit Nozawa Onsen yet. 5-7 degrees this morning, but will probably drop sometime soon.
I remember a change like this last year.
Now thats as accurate a report as ive ever seen. Quite the keen eye
Freezing, windy and flurries at the moment.
In Tokyo, it looks like November might be around 1.5 degrees warmer than average. (Max temp)
Some of the snow on Fuji has melted, indicating that what fell a few nights ago was a dusting. Snowline looks to be around 1000m from the top (at around perhaps 2800m)
Flurries in town throughout the night and ATM. They may open up the top of Goryu today or tomorrow.
Updated monthly snow forecast for Japan from JMA. Not ideal, would be nice to see the map blue rather than brown.
Thanks for the chart. We have had all this preseason nerves before only to be blown away by another great season. Hokkaido I fear not and the mid west may just be running a tad late but will more likely prevail than not.
Not an ideal forecast but they aren't always right. Fingers crossed they need to reforecast due to being on the low side
I've never liked these forecast charts much.
Here's Dec - Feb one.
It shows that Dec - Feb would be average, or above average in the western parts.... So if that's the case, taken with the Nov 25 - Dec 25 map, do they mean that they expect Jan/Feb to be above average????
I like the way you think Sandy!
In your experience Sandy, have these been accurate retrospectively?
I agree with you that they are indeed cryptic and they seem to hedge their bets!
That's what i was thinking
Looks like a bit of warmer weather now, bit of rain in Niseko atm.
I cannot recall precisely.... I've saved these two to see how it turns out.
The reason I have a problem with these charts is exactly as you say: hedged bets.
e.g. Nov 26-Dec 25 snowfall. Western Hokkaido:
40% chance of below normal snowfall
40% chance of normal snowfall
20% chance of above normal snowfall
So while it's saying that there's a 40% chance of below normal snowfall, it's also saying there's a 60% chance of normal snowfall or above normal snowfall !!!!!!!! If you use that logic, surely it's not bad!!! But they are trying to say that the forecast is showing an increased probability that there will be less snowfall than usual.
Yes certainly the case for Hokkaido. The Western Honshu forecast is a bit less promising but see how we go.
It says 26 Nov-25 Dec, 60% chance of less than average, but Dec-Feb average.
It's not about hedging bets and you know that. They look at the forecast synoptic situation and compare that to similar synoptic situations in the historical record and look at the likelihood of each snowfall scenario as a percentage. So in your Western Hokkaido example in previous years with similar synoptic situations it has been more likely that snowfall would be below average or average than above average.
I reckon it's going to be similar to last season, below average in Nov and Dec with a big Jan. So far though Kutchan has received almost double the amount of Nov snow that they received last year. So hopefully not as far below average in Nov/Dec as it was last season.
Looks like Honshu may get a pearl harbour storm
This is off GFS
if its to be believed it will establish a pretty decent NW fetch for days post
BTW its not showing on unisys yet, however is on wx- maps
What's a Pearl Harbour storm D-man?
Look at the dates sonny jim
Can't see the piccy geeza
No piccy tiger
pearl harbour is 07th december
which is also my birthday
I accept whisky as a present
You mean the big dirty purple bandit over Hokkaido?
Wind direction looks good for full on hit to Niigata:
That would be good.
Yep - long way out but looks nice!
Sustained snow from Sunday perhaps?
yes please ...
Looking at other forecasts, temps for central Honshu still look a little warm over the weekend.
GFS has updated - don't know if I am interpreting this correctly but IMO this will suit Hokkaido more. Fair bit of westerly action and cold temps.
Temps could be marginal for central Japan.
Yes, I personally don't see a lot for Honshu on that chart. Will have to wait for more updates.
Very early at this stage, but could be the first winter break coming in around the 12-13th December.
I'm cut, there seemed to be such potential for a monster high to deliver the goods around 3rd Dec, but it just hasn't taken shape.
I wish i could ban myself from looking at this thread. It makes me feel like all the snow has run out. Hurry up huge relieving dump! ....not that kind.
Yes a bit frustrating. Temps are still too warm and we haven't seen a strong high with the right placement yet.
Looking at the snowjapan archives, the mean base depth for central Honshu on December 20 is about 100-200cm.
Some serious catch up will need to happen to have a respectable base by Christmas.
Hoping the switch will flick suddenly like 2009-2010 when we had a biblical dump and delivered a 2m base in 4 days.
The JMA outlook concerns me a tad though in terms of a lower than average december setup.
Snow run out???
The season has not started and generally Honshu is not open late November.
Look at the snowjapan archives.
I'm just ansy because I have a mate going to Nozawa for new years so I'm hoping a base is established for him - which it should.
Here is a good of example of Nozawa Onsen in December 2004, pretty ordinary up until week before Chrissy then the tempo picks up/
The above MRF chart is an 'almost' chart, could be awesome but it isnt yet.
A lot of people here are under the mistaken impression that the snow depth in the central Japan resorts gradually builds up during November/December. Here I am in Yokohama, and it's the 29th November, and I'm heading up to Hakuba for a week on the 26th December. At this stage, I'm not the least bit concerned, as this is pretty standard for November.(yes, it's been warmer than average, but it's November!!!)
The talk about a "relieving dump" or playing "catch up" is just not near the truth. In my experience, the switch suddenly flicks, and there's a huge season starting dump, usually some time between the 15th and 25th December. I've been here 5 seasons in a row, and I think it's panned out that way every year, except for one (I think it was 2007/08) when we had large dumps in late November. And unlike Australia, where 35cm is a big dump, the season starter is usually 100-120cm +
I will only start to worry if it's the 24th December, with no snow on the horizon. That's more than 3 weeks away.
come on... Sandy please give us some of your usual "voice of reason" type reassurances about the season not starting until late December and we should all have some faith in the lake effect which will bring huge volumes of snow as soon as it cools down...
He just did.
Look over the snowjapan archives for Honshu and you will find that it's not uncommon for the season to not start solidly until mid to late December. It all depends on when the highs develop over Siberia and the Mongolian Steppe. Weather does not work to exact dates of seasons.
All the pieces are in place; cold North Asian interior, dropping temps in the mountains. All that is needed is the development of a well placed high to kick in a nice Nor-Westerly fetch over the Sea of Japan.
It will come and we all hope to see a strong early start to a season but there is no point in sugar coating data.
Plus as Sandy always says at this time every year, "It's still November!".
I remember the first time I went to Japan(Hakuba) for the 09/10 season and I was stressing out there won't be any snow by christmas, a few days before I arrived it just dumped like crazy. I will never again stress about "will there be enough snow" just like Sandy said "the switch suddenly flicks" sounds about right to me.
I arrive on the 28th of December and I'm not worried at the slightest!
Looks like another slam dunk for Hokkaido again. Sandy's right though and even Niseko can be a bit thin in the lead up to Xmas.
apologies Sandy - for some reason your post wasn't there when I was typing my comment ...
IMO morning run shows nothing in it for Honshu.
Cold air is further North and the placement isn't right:
use this map
Still a Pearl Harbour setup Donz?
Sorry, I see what you mean, there is a point in the mapping where the 540 line is over Hiroshima when a big blog of moisture comes through.