The coming Japanese season 2011-2012 weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Sep 4, 2011.

  1. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Maybe 2 days of strong lake effect 13-15 you reckon?
    Winds are swirling around a bit near those dates IMO
     
  2. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Monday Tuesday and Wednesday I scraped at least 30 cents off the car each day..and there's another 25 this morning...at base level
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    awesomes

    need pics
     
    #403 Donza, Dec 8, 2011
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  4. damian

    damian A Local

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    pfft. 0.5cm at 800m in Hakuba.
     
  5. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    Atleast the temps are right for the moisture thats meant to come tonight.

    Hokkaido looks fantastic! Dont you just love Japanese weather, when it snows it really comes down.
     
    #405 Korbzy, Dec 8, 2011
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  6. damian

    damian A Local

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    A patchy 1cm now, or a little less

    We've had a poor start to the season here in Hakuba. By 'season', I mean snow season, not ski lifted season. For those interested in higher alpine backcountry where weather history is everything, and this is a weather forum: there was over a 100cm above 2100m, then it rained consistently all the way to the top, putting in a rain crust that is now being buried.

    By late Feb rain crusts are typical in Hakuba, even to high altitude. However having a thick crust in place at the bottom of the early season pack is not so normal. The general line of thought here is that higher steeper lines are best tackled before the first rain crust is formed. Well, too late. Lets see how it unfolds.
     
    #406 damian, Dec 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  7. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    A mate posted this pic on fb from the lower village this morning

    [​IMG]
     
    #407 Go Native, Dec 8, 2011
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  8. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Why is that Damian? Slippage?
     
  9. damian

    damian A Local

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    Avalanche. Crusts can form smooth hard sliding surfaces when they are first buried. Later on as they age they sometimes decay/transform into weak loose crystals that can also fail and lead to avalanches. It isn't a certainty, just needs to be kept in mind. A lot of people, a few of which read this forum, come to Hakuba for one reason: to hike up ridges and ride easy access bigger terrain. And that terrain is usually much more straight forward from an avalanche perspective in the early season than later. But possibly not this year.
     
    #409 damian, Dec 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  10. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Thanks Damian will watch with interest. Was hoping to do some BC in Moyoko in feb so will be an important one to keep abreast of.
     
  11. damian

    damian A Local

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    It isn't a dramatic issue. just something to be aware of in the coming weeks as the early season high altitude steeps open up. Feb may very well be an entirely different playing field. Enjoy Myoko.

    On Fx, has anyone seen this tool? There is plenty to click and explore. Make sure you use the full screen mode (see bottom of page). Change the chart contents and also the forecast source model.

    http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;a=Japan/399-9301_Hakuba-mura/Hakuba_Station

    It even plots historical data, including descriptive statistics based on past modeled outputs.
     
    #411 damian, Dec 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  12. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    -14 in Kutchan at 8pm. Going to be a cold night!
    Few places further north already close to -20.
     
  13. damian

    damian A Local

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    Yes yes, I know this would be like drawing a picture of Mohammed to some of you devout DIY weather guys. But this tool is nice. You can even overlay the various modeled services to compare their Fx.

    This shows Probability of Precip and type, amount and temps from three services: yr.co, World Weather Online and Weather Central.

    [​IMG]
    http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/6453/tempwx.png

    I think it is very useful.

    Unfortunately it seems that the historical descriptive stats are calculated from an observation database some 50km away by the coast
     
    #413 damian, Dec 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  14. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Friend of mine in Niseko town took this shot on her way to work this morning. A bit chilly!

    [​IMG]
     
    #414 Go Native, Dec 9, 2011
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  15. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Gosh I love that part of Japan ..
     
  16. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    I still don't really see anything that epic for Honshu on the charts yet. A bit here and there, but no epic dumps yet IMO
     
  17. damian

    damian A Local

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    IMO all the online modeled forecast services agree with you.

    or you agree with them....

    [​IMG]
     
    #417 damian, Dec 9, 2011
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  18. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Yes looks like they were right to this point. I agree with Smitty.
    IMO cannot see anything big yet for Honshu. A bit disappointing for the early season.
     
  19. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's still only the 10th December!!!! [​IMG]
    Things can and do change quickly!!
     
    #419 Sandy, Dec 10, 2011
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  20. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    i'd rather a later season than an early season [​IMG]
     
    #420 smitty484, Dec 10, 2011
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  21. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    There is certainly potential around. Charts showing a nice little cold burst for Friday Dec 16 which has the potential to drop a lot of snow (and cold too). Will be interesting to see what eventuates.

    Access

    [​IMG]


    GFS

    [​IMG]
     
    #421 smitty484, Dec 10, 2011
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  22. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Me too [​IMG]
     
    #422 seekingpow, Dec 10, 2011
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  23. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    16th - 20th looks pretty good IMO, but that's a long way out atm.
     
    #423 Korbzy, Dec 10, 2011
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  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A long way out, but looks like there could be something around 25-27th December, IMO.
     
  25. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    What charts are you looking at ? can you post a link ? or a screenshot
     
    #425 Korbzy, Dec 10, 2011
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  26. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I have a mate going to Nozawa on the 27th so I'm getting a little nervous for his sake. Usually reasonable to expect a dump or two before that date.
     
  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not quite on the charts yet, but I'm extrapolating the next movement, as I sometimes do. We might be able to see it on the charts in a couple of days.... Anyway, keep your eye on those dates.
     
    #427 Sandy, Dec 10, 2011
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  28. damian

    damian A Local

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    [​IMG] It nearly always snows hard between 25 and 27 Dec. POTATO.
     
    #428 damian, Dec 10, 2011
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  29. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    [​IMG]
     
    #429 seekingpow, Dec 10, 2011
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  30. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    Starting to really like the period from 15-18....seems to be falling into line. Hopefully it continues to look better and better.
     
  31. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    Hakuba looking pretty nice
     
    #431 Korbzy, Dec 11, 2011
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  32. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Certainly looking better!
     
  33. damian

    damian A Local

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    Korbzy - I measured 9cm overnight at 800m. Pretty warm though.

    Temperatures start to behave from the 16th.
     
  34. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    Just looks fantastic! Yesterday was all green now all white, love the transformation [​IMG] only 2 weeks till I leave so every cm helps [​IMG] it looks good for 15-20th IMO GFS has improved since yesterday
     
    #434 Korbzy, Dec 11, 2011
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  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think that's the first time the JMA weather staton at Hakuba has registered snow in the valley this season.
     
  36. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So you're in Hakuba from around 25th/26th? I'll be there from the 26th.

    I'm still not worried about the possibility of no snow down to the valley, so you shouldn't be either!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #436 Sandy, Dec 11, 2011
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  37. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    Im not worried for myself as I will be there for 6-7 weeks but I am for my father who is coming for 9 days [​IMG] I would really love to show him how much snow Japan can get!
     
    #437 Korbzy, Dec 11, 2011
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  38. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Just tell him to go to Hokkaido instead. Plenty of snow up there already! [​IMG]
     
    #438 Go Native, Dec 11, 2011
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  39. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    This morning in Kutchan

    [​IMG]
     
    #439 Go Native, Dec 11, 2011
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  40. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    looking nice!!!!
     
  41. ausi ski bum

    ausi ski bum A Local

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    Getting a little concerned now about Myoko more than Shiga
     
  42. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's the 10th December......
     
  43. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    Yeh and 15-17th is looking good IMO
     
  44. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #444 smitty484, Dec 11, 2011
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  45. Korbzy

    Korbzy Hard Yards

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    ^^ that looks great smitty, the 540 line is great! nice and cold, where did you get that gfs chart ?
     
  46. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    #446 smitty484, Dec 11, 2011
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  47. cams

    cams Hard Yards

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    Love seeing that 540 line creep south. It's definitely cooling, hopefully some low pressure systems will drive more moisture up from the Sea of Japan to turn into precipitable water.
     
  48. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO, in Japan, you are not looking for the 540 line. As a (very)rough approximation, the 540 line give a snow level at around 1400m, which is useful for Australia because the bottom of most resorts is around 1400m.

    But in Japan, Hokkaido has base elevations of resorts at around 200-400m, and in central Japan, around 400-800m. I always use the 528 line as my marker for Japan. As a (very)rough approximation, it gives the snow level at 0m.




    Also, it's not low pressure systems that drive the snowfall in Japan..... It's the position of high pressure that's the most important factor. A stalled area of high pressure(around 1040hPa) across Mongolia produces a fresh northerly wind across the Sea Of Japan, which picks up moisture, and crashes into the mountains in Japan.

    [​IMG]

    Ok, in Hokkaido's case, low pressure also produces good snow, but any low pressure across central Japan almost invariably produces rain, even in Hokkaido.

    For example, this produces rain in Hokkaido. After it passes, we'll get snow, but there needs to be enough snow to cover up the boiler plate both on and off piste.
    [​IMG]

    So generally speaking, low pressure is BAD, while high pressure over Mongolia is good. I would be quite satisfied if there was no low pressure all winter (unlike the way snow falls in Australia)
     
    #448 Sandy, Dec 12, 2011
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  49. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    How common (or uncommon) is a low like the above in winter Sandy?
     
  50. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    Common enough. You would get a few of them each winter