The coming Japanese season 2011-2012 weather

Call_me_Ishmael

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Nov 19, 2011
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Monday Tuesday and Wednesday I scraped at least 30 cents off the car each day..and there's another 25 this morning...at base level
 

Donza

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Apr 21, 2004
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Call_me_Ishmael said:
Monday Tuesday and Wednesday I scraped at least 30 cents off the car each day..and there's another 25 this morning...at base level
awesomes

need pics
 
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Korbzy

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Apr 6, 2010
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damian said:
pfft. 0.5cm at 800m in Hakuba.

Atleast the temps are right for the moisture thats meant to come tonight.

Hokkaido looks fantastic! Dont you just love Japanese weather, when it snows it really comes down.
 
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damian

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Jul 29, 2009
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A patchy 1cm now, or a little less

We've had a poor start to the season here in Hakuba. By 'season', I mean snow season, not ski lifted season. For those interested in higher alpine backcountry where weather history is everything, and this is a weather forum: there was over a 100cm above 2100m, then it rained consistently all the way to the top, putting in a rain crust that is now being buried.

By late Feb rain crusts are typical in Hakuba, even to high altitude. However having a thick crust in place at the bottom of the early season pack is not so normal. The general line of thought here is that higher steeper lines are best tackled before the first rain crust is formed. Well, too late. Lets see how it unfolds.
 
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Go Native

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Aug 30, 2004
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A mate posted this pic on fb from the lower village this morning

386050_10150503579936869_688951868_10543438_469515696_n.jpg
 
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damian

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Avalanche. Crusts can form smooth hard sliding surfaces when they are first buried. Later on as they age they sometimes decay/transform into weak loose crystals that can also fail and lead to avalanches. It isn't a certainty, just needs to be kept in mind. A lot of people, a few of which read this forum, come to Hakuba for one reason: to hike up ridges and ride easy access bigger terrain. And that terrain is usually much more straight forward from an avalanche perspective in the early season than later. But possibly not this year.
 
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seekingpow

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Dec 19, 2008
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Thanks Damian will watch with interest. Was hoping to do some BC in Moyoko in feb so will be an important one to keep abreast of.
 

damian

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It isn't a dramatic issue. just something to be aware of in the coming weeks as the early season high altitude steeps open up. Feb may very well be an entirely different playing field. Enjoy Myoko.

On Fx, has anyone seen this tool? There is plenty to click and explore. Make sure you use the full screen mode (see bottom of page). Change the chart contents and also the forecast source model.

http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;a=Japan/399-9301_Hakuba-mura/Hakuba_Station

It even plots historical data, including descriptive statistics based on past modeled outputs.
 
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damian

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damian said:
On Fx, has anyone seen this tool? There is plenty to click and explore. Make sure you use the full screen mode (see bottom of page). Change the chart contents and also the forecast source model.

http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;a=Japan/399-9301_Hakuba-mura/Hakuba_Station

It even plots historical data, including descriptive statistics based on past modeled outputs.

Yes yes, I know this would be like drawing a picture of Mohammed to some of you devout DIY weather guys. But this tool is nice. You can even overlay the various modeled services to compare their Fx.

This shows Probability of Precip and type, amount and temps from three services: yr.co, World Weather Online and Weather Central.

tempwx.png

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/6453/tempwx.png

I think it is very useful.

Unfortunately it seems that the historical descriptive stats are calculated from an observation database some 50km away by the coast
 
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Go Native

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Friend of mine in Niseko town took this shot on her way to work this morning. A bit chilly!

392679_2865417273291_1195548219_33301255_1271550781_n.jpg
 
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seekingpow

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Dec 19, 2008
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Yes looks like they were right to this point. I agree with Smitty.
IMO cannot see anything big yet for Honshu. A bit disappointing for the early season.
 

Sandy

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seekingpow said:
Yes looks like they were right to this point. I agree with Smitty.
IMO cannot see anything big yet for Honshu. A bit disappointing for the early season.

It's still only the 10th December!!!!
wink.gif

Things can and do change quickly!!
 
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smitty484

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seekingpow said:
Yes looks like they were right to this point. I agree with Smitty.
IMO cannot see anything big yet for Honshu. A bit disappointing for the early season.

i'd rather a later season than an early season
wink.gif
 
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smitty484

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Apr 27, 2006
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There is certainly potential around. Charts showing a nice little cold burst for Friday Dec 16 which has the potential to drop a lot of snow (and cold too). Will be interesting to see what eventuates.

Access

390342_10150402440911058_571771057_8898338_1955732870_n.jpg



GFS

381842_10150402444511058_571771057_8898346_1697241669_n.jpg
 
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Korbzy

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Apr 6, 2010
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smitty484 said:
There is certainly potential around. Charts showing a nice little cold burst for Friday Dec 16 which has the potential to drop a lot of snow (and cold too). Will be interesting to see what eventuates.

16th - 20th looks pretty good IMO, but that's a long way out atm.
 
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Korbzy

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Apr 6, 2010
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Sandy said:
A long way out, but looks like there could be something around 25-27th December, IMO.

What charts are you looking at ? can you post a link ? or a screenshot
 
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seekingpow

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I have a mate going to Nozawa on the 27th so I'm getting a little nervous for his sake. Usually reasonable to expect a dump or two before that date.
 

Sandy

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Korbzy said:
Sandy said:
A long way out, but looks like there could be something around 25-27th December, IMO.

What charts are you looking at ? can you post a link ? or a screenshot

It's not quite on the charts yet, but I'm extrapolating the next movement, as I sometimes do. We might be able to see it on the charts in a couple of days.... Anyway, keep your eye on those dates.
 
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Korbzy

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Apr 6, 2010
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damian said:
Korbzy - I measured 9cm overnight at 800m. Pretty warm though.

Temperatures start to behave from the 16th.

Just looks fantastic! Yesterday was all green now all white, love the transformation
smile.gif
only 2 weeks till I leave so every cm helps
smile.gif
it looks good for 15-20th IMO GFS has improved since yesterday
 
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Sandy

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Korbzy said:
damian said:
Korbzy - I measured 9cm overnight at 800m. Pretty warm though.

Temperatures start to behave from the 16th.

Just looks fantastic! Yesterday was all green now all white, love the transformation
smile.gif
only 2 weeks till I leave so every cm helps
smile.gif
it looks good for 15-20th IMO GFS has improved since yesterday

So you're in Hakuba from around 25th/26th? I'll be there from the 26th.

I'm still not worried about the possibility of no snow down to the valley, so you shouldn't be either!!!!
wink.gif
 
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Korbzy

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Apr 6, 2010
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Sandy said:
Korbzy said:
damian said:
Korbzy - I measured 9cm overnight at 800m. Pretty warm though.

Temperatures start to behave from the 16th.

Just looks fantastic! Yesterday was all green now all white, love the transformation
smile.gif
only 2 weeks till I leave so every cm helps
smile.gif
it looks good for 15-20th IMO GFS has improved since yesterday

So you're in Hakuba from around 25th/26th? I'll be there from the 26th.

I'm still not worried about the possibility of no snow down to the valley, so you shouldn't be either!!!!
wink.gif

Im not worried for myself as I will be there for 6-7 weeks but I am for my father who is coming for 9 days
tongue.gif
I would really love to show him how much snow Japan can get!
 
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Korbzy

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Apr 6, 2010
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^^ that looks great smitty, the 540 line is great! nice and cold, where did you get that gfs chart ?
 

cams

Hard Yards
Jun 20, 2011
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Love seeing that 540 line creep south. It's definitely cooling, hopefully some low pressure systems will drive more moisture up from the Sea of Japan to turn into precipitable water.
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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Korbzy said:
^^ that looks great smitty, the 540 line is great! nice and cold, where did you get that gfs chart ?

cams said:
Love seeing that 540 line creep south. It's definitely cooling, hopefully some low pressure systems will drive more moisture up from the Sea of Japan to turn into precipitable water.

IMO, in Japan, you are not looking for the 540 line. As a (very)rough approximation, the 540 line give a snow level at around 1400m, which is useful for Australia because the bottom of most resorts is around 1400m.

But in Japan, Hokkaido has base elevations of resorts at around 200-400m, and in central Japan, around 400-800m. I always use the 528 line as my marker for Japan. As a (very)rough approximation, it gives the snow level at 0m.




Also, it's not low pressure systems that drive the snowfall in Japan..... It's the position of high pressure that's the most important factor. A stalled area of high pressure(around 1040hPa) across Mongolia produces a fresh northerly wind across the Sea Of Japan, which picks up moisture, and crashes into the mountains in Japan.

HakubaWindsz.jpg


Ok, in Hokkaido's case, low pressure also produces good snow, but any low pressure across central Japan almost invariably produces rain, even in Hokkaido.

For example, this produces rain in Hokkaido. After it passes, we'll get snow, but there needs to be enough snow to cover up the boiler plate both on and off piste.
2007-01-0612forecastwpac.jpg


So generally speaking, low pressure is BAD, while high pressure over Mongolia is good. I would be quite satisfied if there was no low pressure all winter (unlike the way snow falls in Australia)
 
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