The coming Japanese snow season 2015

Sandy

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Looks like it will disrupt the Suzuka F1 Grand Prix in Sunday!!!!

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mannyk

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not being to casual about the dangers, the risk of slides is Im sure there, but it will also clear the ash off everything. I guess too much in one go is the problem.
 

Sandy

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Although the typhoon is still 1000km from Tokyo, it's a big storm and it's raining in Tokyo & Yokohama. We've had 35mm in the last 6 hours to 10am, with 12mm in the last hour. Due to pass right over the top of Tokyo at 9am Monday.

Looks like it will disrupt the Suzuka F1 Gand Prix.

iod-earth-100414.jpg
 
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Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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137mm in Yokohama today since about 5 am, and the typhoon is still around 12 hours away!!!!!

Some other places have had more:
Hakone: 195mm
Amagisan(Izu) 220mm
 

almontyrat

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Get your snorkel out Sandy!
Seriously though, I hope the storm plays out as just another big rain event and that the predicted mudslides etc. don't wreak too much havoc.
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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Yes, Vongfong is next in the typhoon alley, and looks like going Cat 4, before probably hitting Japan. I will be in Australia for a visit by then!!!!

Meanwhile, Typhoon Phonfone is still dropping a lot of rain. Hourly totals of up 58mm have been recorded to the SW of Shizuoka (100km to the east of Suzuka, so the F1 circus will have an interesting time moving out)

The heaviest rain looks to be about 2 hours away from Tokyo, after which it should clear away.
 

Sandy

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Most of the JR train services around Tokyo have been suspended, cancelled or delayed this morning. Cannot get to work.

Yokohama has had 24.5mm rain between 7am-8am..... sounds heavy out there right now.
 

Sandy

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Some rain figures from Tokyo and to the west, from yesterday up to 9am today:

Tokyo - 237mm
Yokohama - 284mm
Hakone - 335mm
Hamamatsu - 280mm
Kakegawa - 301mm
Amagisan - 469mm
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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Getting a little fierce out there now..... pressure's dropped to 982hPa (dropped 18 in the last 5 hours, and 11 in the last two)
Wind has changed direction and the temperature has gone up 5 degrees in the last hour.
 

Sandy

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Problems with JR trains around Tokyo:

Keihintōhoku Line - Service suspended
Between Isogo and Ōfuna
Inbound and outbound lines
River overflow

Tsurumi Line - Service suspended
Inbound and outbound lines
Track submerged


But looks like the heavy rain is clearing.....
 

Sandy

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Well, the typhoon has cleared, and here are the total rain figures from Tokyo and to the west, from yesterday up to today:

Tokyo - 272mm
Yokohama - 352mm
Hakone - 368mm
Hamamatsu - 280mm
Kakegawa - 301mm
Amagisan - 486mm

Just a little bit wet!!!!!
 

PMG

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This may be a silly question but do they follow the current somewhat? The direction that one is taking looks like it is.
 
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Sandy

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This may be a silly question but do they follow the current somewhat? The direction that one is taking looks like it is.
Well, it does, but in that part of the Pacific the ocean currents have a similar path to the general air movement.
i.e. Nearer the equator the air moves east to west, but in higher latitudes, it moves west to east.

So often, the typhoons take a big right turn at about 30 degrees N (and also change from a NW direction to the north about 20 degrees N)
 

guy

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Almost November... can't wait for the first "resort" snow to fall....

Asahidake and Yotei allready had a dusting of snow.
 

smitty484

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Almost November... can't wait for the first "resort" snow to fall....

Asahidake and Yotei allready had a dusting of snow.

Almost almost. I'd say we are around 6 weeks away from the first resort level (800m asl and below) snowfall on Honshu. Obviously varies year on year, but still a little away yet.
 
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Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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Northerly winds - perfect for Myoko snow!

Just don't want to much before I get there.

It's too early for any snowfall to settle and stay there for more than a day or two at 600m, if any could fall at that elevation.
The air mass is still way too warm, but that's normal. October temperatures seem to be on track to be about average...

HOWEVER, there seems to be a slight correlation between a lower than average September in Tokyo, and December snowfall in central Japan.
 
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Crispy013

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Nice burst of cold air from that low expected to develop north of Hokkaido. Might see some high level snow Sunday into Monday.

Gotta love those blue (and purple!) colours starting to creep into these charts - game on!
 

McNads

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G'day Sandy (and all),
I'm returning to the States again this coming Northern Winter (the hide of me to show my face around here!) and in conducting the obligatory preseason research into absolutely anything that may even remotely effect snow conditions in 3/4 months time (tragic) I happened to read a couple of days ago (sorry, was in transit and didn't save the link) that right now and for this time of year, Siberia has the most snow on the ground since 1997.
I find it an interesting observation and am secretly suppressing the gnawing fear inside of me that keeps saying "Oh no you tool, you should have went back to Japan!!"
Anyway, have you heard about this? Any thoughts?
 

skichanger

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mmm interesting. Since we, as in Myoko, are due south of Siberia and get great snow with a northerly that could be an omen of a big winter. Hope it is not as big as in 2011/2012, which was the most snow for 30 years. The 4 metres in 3 days was overwhelming, especially when we were still buried from earlier snow.

For us one of the other influences is the temp of the Sea of Japan. If it is warm there is more moisture in the air and hence more snow.
 

ojisan

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wouldn't more snow on the ground in Siberia help?
I mean, once the big fat high pressure systems park themselves over Siberia & direct their nor-westerlies toward Japan, if there is more snow on the ground, the colder the air would be?
just a thought.. :)
 

skichanger

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Ok that all applies to America. Just wondering what effect it does have on Japan.

WRT Japan I really only know about Myoko and surrounds.

So 2011/12 where we had lost of snow was cr@p in USA. My mogul skier came from USA to Myoko USA the snow was being scrapped from the surrounds to make the make the moguls course, Myoko, we were buried.

Last year USA was cold and had good snow. Myoko snow was ok but ordinary for there. So if early Siberia snow means cold and snow in USA mmm what does it actually mean for Japan. From talking to Sandy I get the impression the Japanese snow is more local that that so it may mean very little. And we had that huge dump mid Feb that bought Tokyo to a grinding halt.

Need more data.
 

Vermillion

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wouldn't more snow on the ground in Siberia help?
I mean, once the big fat high pressure systems park themselves over Siberia & direct their nor-westerlies toward Japan, if there is more snow on the ground, the colder the air would be?
just a thought.. :)

The colder the better, snow would only help due to it's albedo and reflecting heat/energy off.

You want a warm Sea of Japan so that the air coming across can pick up more moisture before it becomes saturated, which results in more snow. If the temps were marginal this could be risky as it could mean the difference between rain and snow, but in Japan this isnt usually a problem as the Siberian airmass is so cold to begin with.
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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For us one of the other influences is the temp of the Sea of Japan. If it is warm there is more moisture in the air and hence more snow.
This makes very little difference in the end. The Sea of Japan off central Japan is about 6-8 degrees in winter. The amount of moisture (cloud) moving across the Sea of Japan is more dependent on temperature differential, than absolute temperature of the water.
So if the water is 8 degrees, and the wind is -10, the differential is 18 degrees. OTOH, if the water is 6 degrees and the wind is -15, the differential is 21 degrees and you will get more snow.
Plus there is another effect..... If the water temperature is higher(e.g. 10 degrees), it influences the air temperature, so it is more likely to rain at or near sea level.
 

ojisan

station master
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The colder the better, snow would only help due to it's albedo and reflecting heat/energy off.

True... but does more snow in Siberia result in a colder air mass?
I think it might, but I dunno for sure
 

Sandy

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If we look at it purely in terms of Siberian cold first, we see this statement in the first link:

"October 1976 holds the record as having the highest Eurasia snow extent of 17.2 million square kilometers! We all have heard about or remember the notoriously cold 1976-77 winter that broke countless records."

So how was the winter of 1976-77 in Japan?

I usually take my queue from Takada(elevation 13m), which is right near the Sea of Japan, 20-30km north of Myoko.
The mean maximum temperature in Takada in January 1977 was the lowest on record (2.5 degrees). This corresponds to the "notoriously cold 1976-77 winter". The next lowest were 1985 (2.6) and 1984 (2.7)

So what was the snow like in Takaka in those years(January snowfall)?
1977: 489cm
1985: 728cm
1984: 665cm

And compare 2014: 181cm
The average since 1953 is 259cm, but 194cm since 1987.

Generally, I look at snowfall at Takada as being indicative of how consistently cold a winter is, along with how much snow is falling.
 
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