Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Ok, I know it's early, but just posting some weather info for Japan!!!

    Tokyo and the Kanto plain region has water shortages due to the lack of snow pack melt from last winter's less than average season. The snow never penetrated very far from the Sea of Japan coast, so there's not much melt on this side of the mountains.


    The last few days we've had some thunderstorms. It never ceases to amaze me how these storms develop, not from a frontal system, but just materialising out of the ether, and dropping lots of rain in a short period of time. Here in Yokohama, I headed out for the supermarket in cloudy conditions, and when I came out, I was greeting with humongous amounts of rain. I was soaked just getting out of my car (even with an umbrella)!!!!
    We had 1.5mm in the few minutes before midday, and 72.5mm from midday to 1:00pm!!!!! It's eased off a bit now, so my guess would be another 10-15mm between 1pm to 2pm.

    Meanwhile only 10km, they've had no rain at all!!!! ;)
     
  2. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2010
    Messages:
    1,427
    Likes Received:
    585
    Location:
    Darwin Australia
    Sounds like Darwin.Can be raining across the road but not on your side.
     
    D64133 likes this.
  3. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Hmmmm.... 32mm between 1pm to 2pm!!!! So that's 106mm in just over 2 hours! :D
    Don't you love Japan!!!! Probably cause absolute chaos with the trains!! Still "sprinkling" outside!!
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,465
    Likes Received:
    25,936
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I've never been to Japan in Summer. Would love to see some time-lapse video (or even some skew-t plots) of the build up.
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    If you're quick!!!

    http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radame/

    Too late for the 5 min high res ones, but use this and click on central Japan, and pull down the time starting at around 9am. Peak was about 11:30 -> 14:00
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,465
    Likes Received:
    25,936
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Shit that's some heavy stuff. 80mm/h!?
    I love how it goes from an obs to 'forecasted' radar image.
     
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Not something that's too unusual in Japan in summer (and I don't include typhoons, which can be worse sometimes!!)
     
  8. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2012
    Messages:
    6,045
    Likes Received:
    2,524
    So from what @Sandy has said I gather it has been dry in Toyko. On Wednesday my mogul skier was in Tokyo and wanted to go to Ueno Zoo. It rained!
     
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    The catchment for Tokyo and the Kanto Plain area is to the north in the mountains. It's been dry in Tokyo(37mm), but wetter where I live in Yokohama (106mm) for the first 2 weeks of July. The totals tomorrow will show 42mm in Tokyo, and 212mm in Yokohama, if it stays dry for the rest of today. And they are only about 35km apart.

    And it's the rainy season, so you need to be flexible with outdoor activities.
     
  10. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2016
    Messages:
    85
    Likes Received:
    26
    I am looking forward to your predictions again sandy, they were handy for me this year. Will hopefully be heading back that way again in Feb or Mar. This year was great for me (picked a great week to go quite by coincidence) and if it was bad then I look forward to a better year in 2017. Fingers crossed
     
  11. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    I'm looking forward to the 16/17 season build up. Central Japan scarred me last season, trying central Hokkaido for something different this season LOL
     
    Neslot likes this.
  12. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2012
    Messages:
    6,045
    Likes Received:
    2,524
    One needs to remember it was bad by Japan's snow/powder standards. All my Aussie guests were happy as it was still better than what they get in Aus.
     
  13. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2002
    Messages:
    1,865
    Likes Received:
    84
    Location:
    Sydney
    You won't be disappointed, terrain not really comparable but the consistent high quality snow more than makes up for it. I remember the weather threads last year were a bit bleak for Honshu.
     
    seekingpow likes this.
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Last season was the worst for 18 years.... It will NOT be the same next season.
     
  15. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    Based in Furano and hitting the Otoe cat tour and maybe Sahoro so I'm sure will be good
     
  16. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2012
    Messages:
    1,141
    Likes Received:
    704
    Location:
    Vic surf coast
    ....and the 2 weeks I had in central Honshu was still one of my best japanuals
     
  17. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2016
    Messages:
    85
    Likes Received:
    26
    yep that's precisely my point if I thought it was good and it wasn't its all good news for me. Bringing the kids this year too.
     
    skichanger likes this.
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Hot in Japan today...
    And unusually, looks like it's hottest way up in northern Honshu, with 37.4 in Akita
     
  19. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,432
    Likes Received:
    1,866
    Location:
    Sydney
    Wow!
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Eventually got to 37.6 degrees in Akita. Luckily for them, the humidity got all the way down to 39%.
     
  21. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Typhoon Omais will just skim the east coast of Honshu.

    [​IMG]


    It will move north, directing a strong northerly wind across this area.

    In spite of the northerly, Tokyo & Osaka are expecting 36 degrees tomorrow and Nagoya 37. I'm hoping the humidity will drop to 30%, but I'm not holding my breath!!!
     
    SAsurfa likes this.
  22. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2013
    Messages:
    2,597
    Likes Received:
    1,395
    Location:
    Victoria
    Damn, thats some heat with that humidity.
     
  23. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    With the wind pumping in from the sea, if it gets to 36 in Tokyo tomorrow, I'm thinking it will bottom out at around 60%... the morning will be worst, probably 34 degrees at 11am, and 75% I reckon.

    I sometimes wonder how it gets hotter than 37 degrees in Japan. There's no desert anywhere within 2000km... the high humidity shows that!

    The highest temperature:
    • Official record: Shimanto, Kochi 41.0 °C, August 12, 2013.
    • Unofficial record: Adachi, Tokyo, 42.7 °C, July 20, 2004.
     
    Chondro likes this.
  24. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2016
    Messages:
    85
    Likes Received:
    26
    particularly considering the latitude and the humidity. uneducated guess..Is it possible that it could be due to the unimpeded wind from the south and catching wind from the tropics into the bottom of the jet stream? kinda the way it happens in NW WA?
     
  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    The majority of the heat comes from the Kuroshio current. Somewhat like the Gulf Stream, the current runs from the Philippines 4000km up past Japan, peaking at 28 degrees in August off southern Japan. I'm not sure where the additional heat comes from, but Tokyo in August generally never gets below 23 degrees at night, and maximums not below 29 degrees during the day. Averages sit around 25 & 32 degrees, 2010 it was 27.0 & 33.5 degrees in August.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    They've changed the forecast for Tokyo....... 37 degrees :doh:
     
  27. mr muddle

    mr muddle Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2016
    Messages:
    85
    Likes Received:
    26
    So its essentially starting from a high base early in the day. I would still expect that wind would have to play some and that with limited obstacles to the south there would be little preventing the warm air from interacting. Its definitely an interesting conundrum. Does the temp drop rapidly at other times like it does in say a Melbourne summer when a strong front moves in and there is a bit of southerly fetch?
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    No, it's very rare for the temperature to change dramatically, except sometimes in winter. The summer is remarkably stable, and generally winds are light.
    Luckily, the cloud has moved right away, and the humidity has dropped right back.... 35.6 degrees in Tokyo at 10am, humidity down to 45%.

    36.5 degrees at Tokyo Haneda Airport
     
  29. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    YUCK!
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    37.6 degrees in Tokyo, 36% humidity. 38.0 at Haneda Airport, 37.1 degrees where I am in Yokohama & 40%

    Usually, the temperature peaks between 1-2pm.
     
  31. gaz35

    gaz35 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    1,144
    Likes Received:
    597
    I assume this is all good for Honshu snow in January;);)
     
  32. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2012
    Messages:
    6,045
    Likes Received:
    2,524
    Passing through Tokyo in a few weeks time. Gees I hope I get a relatively cold, dry day
     
  33. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    It depends when that is.... If a "few weeks" means less than 3 weeks, it will probably still be hot. There are NO relatively cold, dry days in August. (well, if 29 degrees and 40% humidity is relatively cold & dry, then it's possible!!! ;) )
     
  34. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2010
    Messages:
    1,427
    Likes Received:
    585
    Location:
    Darwin Australia
    Its better than 37 degrees and ninety percent where I live!
     
    D64133 likes this.
  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    But it never ever gets to 37 degrees in Darwin.
    And it's 29 degrees & 50% in Darwin right now!!! :p
     
  36. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2010
    Messages:
    1,427
    Likes Received:
    585
    Location:
    Darwin Australia
    Oh yes it gets to 37 in Darwin.Not often but generally Novemberish.Dry season ATM.Build up/suicide season,November and December knocks people around a lot.Particularly newcomers.I would not want to be a roofer.I work in retail so nice and aircondtioned:)
     
    D64133 likes this.
  37. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Typhoon Chanthu skimming past Tokyo tonight, and heading right over the top of Sendai. It's a weak one, so rainfall and winds won't be excessive, by the looks.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  38. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    In Katsuura in the Chiba coast, about 60km SE of Tokyo, they've had 68mm of rain between 8-9pm.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,465
    Likes Received:
    25,936
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Hokkaido looks to cop the brunt of it, come tomorrow night...
     
  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Usually, once they're out of the warm water south of the Kuroshio Current, they lose energy quite quickly.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,465
    Likes Received:
    25,936
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Either way, Chanthu has a nice track for maximum impact...
    Bring out the swell hunters in it's wake!
    [​IMG]
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,465
    Likes Received:
    25,936
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    That currently puts it in Cat 1 by BOM ratings, right @Sandy ?
     
  44. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    It's currently in the lower end of Cat 1. As i said, it's not very strong(wind-wise), but we'll see how much rain it brings.
    I think the biggest one that hit Tokyo while I have been here was the lower end of Cat 3. September is usually typhoon season in Japan.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Not a nice day in Japan today!!

    After the typhoon came through, it's really hot and it's very humid as well !!!! 36.8 degrees 80km to the NW of Tokyo at 11am.
     
  46. jab1966

    jab1966 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    233
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Christchurch
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    It's strange where the typhoons track around Japan. There are two tropical storms/depressions currently near Japan, and they are tracking in opposite directions.
    #12 just south of Japan is tracking WESTWARD, which is extremely unusual at that latitude.
    #10 further south is tracking due north.

    I wonder a little what happens if #10 tracks NNW and #12 tracks SSW!!!!! ;)
    [​IMG]
    You can see #12 near Japan, with #10 just off the map to the south:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    You get to thinking that all that cloud could hook up!!!! ;) :D
     
  48. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Ok, so TS #10 has been named as typhoon Mindulle, and looks like it might pass right over Tokyo on Monday evening as CAT1
     
  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,370
    Likes Received:
    17,464
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Typhoon Mindulle:



    [​IMG]
     
  50. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,432
    Likes Received:
    1,866
    Location:
    Sydney
    Wise to hold the Olympics late July/early August in 2020 then.