Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you have a link?
    I had a quick look at Backcountry Magazine and there's a climate article that mentions Japan only in name, but not description.
     
  2. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL Nah I've got central heating. And I have a team here atm so it would justify running it instead of the kero heaters. Some mornings it has felt like the 7 dwarves heading of to work, all in overalls, getting in the Delica etc. - Hi ho hi ho it's off to work we go.....
     
  3. Four!

    Four! Hard Yards

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  4. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    Nope, Great marketing scheme tho.
    Alot of people who where looking at niseko have booked to go to myoko instead. I'm hoping niseko may be a little quieter this year for that reason haha
     
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  5. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Didn't realise 2007 was so bad. Wasn't 2016 supposed to be the worst season for 20 or so years for central Honshu? 2007 and 2009 were both worse looking at that.
     
    #155 PMG, Oct 5, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2016
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From that article:

    There's one problem. The La Nina seasons are not accurate!!!!!!!!!! Only two seasons are marked as La Nina, and one was NOT a La Nina, and 6 others were!! I've marked these discrepancies in red.

    Season (Dec – March) for Myoko Kogen
    Cumulative Snowfall (cm)
    2015/16 .. 842
    2014/15 .. 1744
    2013/14 .. 1378
    2012/13 .. 1621
    2011/12 .. 2324 (La Niña-affected season)
    2010/11 .. 1761 <- La Nina year
    2009/10 .. 1570
    2008/09 .. 818
    2007/08 .. 1609 <- La Nina year
    2006/07 .. 494
    2005/06 .. 2271 (La Niña-affected season) <- Not a La Nina year
    2004/05 .. 1807
    2003/04 .. 959
    2002/03 .. 1603
    2001/02 .. 1146
    2000/01 .. 1862 <- La Nina year
    1999/00 .. 1484 <- La Nina year
    1998/99 .. 1616 <- La Nina year
    1997/98 .. 1173
    1996/97 .. 1320
    1995/96 .. 1638 <- La Nina year
    1994/95 .. 1667

    However, I will say this....
    La Nina seems to be 269cm better than the average year, and El Nino 179cm lower!!

    Season Snowfall
    2015/16 .. 842 El Nino
    2014/15 .. 1744
    2013/14 .. 1378
    2012/13 .. 1621
    2011/12 .. 2324 La Nina
    2010/11 .. 1761 La Nina
    2009/10 ..1570 El Nino
    2008/09 .. 818
    2007/08 ..1609 La Nina
    2006/07 .. 494 El Nino
    2005/06 .. 2271
    2004/05 .. 1807 El Nino
    2003/04 .. 959
    2002/03 .. 1603 El Nino
    2001/02 .. 1146
    2000/01 .. 1862 La Nina
    1999/00 .. 1484 La Nina
    1998/99 .. 1616 La Nina
    1997/98 .. 1173 El Nino
    1996/97 .. 1320
    1995/96 .. 1638 La Nina
    1994/95 .. 1667 El Nino


    Average ..... La Nina .. El Nino
    1487cm .... 1756cm ....1308cm
    [​IMG]

     
    #156 Sandy, Oct 5, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2016
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You also have to realise that Myoko Kogen (train station at 550m?) is not necessarily indicative of all of central Honshu. If it's a bit warmer, there's rain at 550m, and if it's normal, Myoko is nearer the coast, so it gets a lot more snow than Hakuba, Nozawa, etc.
     
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  8. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Makes sense. Automatically assumed they would take the measurements near Akakura.
     
    #158 PMG, Oct 5, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2016
  9. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    Are we even going to have a La Nina this winter ?

    The latest info I've seen says we're likely to stay neutral.
     
  10. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anything is better than an El Nino. Unless you're going to North America. ;)
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the average for neutral = 1332cm
     
  13. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you compare:

    Myoko Kogen weather station:
    Average ..... La Nina .. El Nino .. Neutral
    1487cm .... 1756cm ....1308cm .. 1332cm

    Yuzawa weather station
    Average ..... La Nina .. El Nino .. Neutral
    1369cm .... 1560cm ....1121cm .. 1320cm

    Much less variation for Yuzawa

    One other thing..... That figure for 2011/12 for Myoko Kogen of 2324cm, 400cm of that fell in just 3 days at the end of Jan 2012, so one huge episode can affect the season's figures.
     
  15. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    20m is just bonkers.
     
  16. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep it was overwhelming. I had possession of Chalet Myoko for about 1 week when that happened. Was thinking - what have we done! :eek:

    Actually I reckon it was more snow than what was reported. When I arrived on 18th January my lodge was almost buried. You could hardly see it from the road. We climbed down onto the deck.
     
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  17. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Any strong links between central Asia min temps and the upcoming japan season?
    Seems like temps are droppng fast and are a lot colder this year than they were at the same time in '15.
    Even colder than in '14?
    Lets see if this is readable.... This is night time mins '14,'15,'16 (5th Oct top row , 11th Bottom row)
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    I'm liking the sound of this already!
    Hoping for a bumper season Hokkaido way :D
     
  19. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hoping for a bumper season all of Japan way!
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's way too early to tell if cooler weather now has any link to a colder winter.
    It was 32degrees in Tokyo this time last week, so it it's been warmer than average in Japan.
    For example, if you look earlier in this thread, there may be a link between cooler than average August temperatures in Tokyo, and bad snow seasons the following winter, so cooler temperatures at this time of year probably has no predictive link to better snow seasons.
     
  21. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    First snow in Mt Shiro Uma (Nagano) today
    [​IMG]
     
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  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It felt a little chilly in Yokohama today!!! Currently 16 degrees!!! :D
     
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  23. Four!

    Four! Hard Yards

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  24. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was really cold outside at one stage today. Had that nip in the air that makes you think it had snowed somewhere. Warmed up a little a bit later though.
     
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  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow!!! It got down to only 11.8 degrees in Tokyo this morning!! :D
     
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  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Forecast for Tokyo on Thursday is 28 degrees.... that's around 6 degrees above average for the 20th October.

    Every time we've had a very strong typhoon south of Japan, the temperatures seem to jump. Although this typhoon is far away (east of the Philippines), they seem to direct warm air across Japan.

    Super Typhoon Haima is a strong one. Sustained winds 255kph, gusting to 310kph.
     
  27. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah has warmed up again here. Today it was to hot to wear a jumper.
     
  28. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    snow forecast for hokkaido next week (overnight), still well above 0 during day
     
  29. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Starting to like what is brewing out from the end of the month
     
  30. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Freezing levels creeping down to 1200m, even into the upper mid part of Japan towards the end of the month.
    Mainland China min temps still dropping.
    Then further out into the realm of pure speculation the 5th has some interesting features.
     
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  31. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    JMA shows more snowmen appearing in the Hokkaido forecasts over the next week
     
  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, looks like freeze level down to sea level from Sat 29th October, for maybe 2-3 days.
     
  33. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    snowing in Niseko now according to facebook
     
  34. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep... cams seems to agree.. looks like wet snow falling
     
  35. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Instagram confirms nice snow falling in Furano
     
  36. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Exciting times, this thread will soon have the drop 'the coming' LOL
     
  37. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a while before the actual season thread though.... But it's nice that we're getting snow at resorts in October!!
     
  38. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    50 foot season :whistle:
     
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  39. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Maybe a little dusting for Nozawa around the 30th or if not then the 6th depending.
    Not unheard of for October :rolleyes:
     
  40. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Colder here. This morning we were outside playing with the sewage system. The local plumbers all went and put extra jackets on. The breeze had that bite in it like it was off snow.
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey all,
    I haven't skied Japan for a long time and I am a newbie to the Japan part of these forums but I am familiar with Japan's climatology and snow conditions.
    I know @Sandy is the expert in this domain, so I will make a few suggestions...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Season starts as abnormally warm in Central Japan (could be more rain than snow)
    And the season than cools well below the average.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Mostly average Precipitation
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    December: Largely Westerlies
    February: NW largely
    April SW to E ish
    Going on this, average start and end, no early (before late November) and late season (after April)
    Hope to see some good powder pics this season!
     
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  42. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    A lot of pics , but god knows what you are trying to say ?????
     
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  43. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To tell you the truth what you've outlined there, is nothing unusual for central Japan!!!! ;)

    In a normal season, the I don't expect good snow in late November, and usually, the change in season happens in the week from the middle of December. March usually gets warm from around the 3rd week, and April is usually mild. So a normal season doesn't differ much from what you've posted!
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it definitely is similar to a normal season but there is a predicted higher temperature anomaly until February, so that might affect the 'building of the base' but a cooler than usual April and May, so maybe the cover might stick around for a bit longer...
    Probably not a lot of effect on the snow cover though.
     
  45. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    You don't need to build a base in Japan ........ one dump and you can just about start to ski .
     
  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that's what I am saying... there will be similar precipitation but it will be warmer than average until February. This may contribute to less snow and more rain. Anyway that's my 2 cents
     
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Honestly, I've seen so many season forecasts from JMA, which have been totally wrong 1 month out, but the graphics you posted show forecasts made in October 2016 for April 2017, which, quite frankly, are just totally not believable.

    JMA are showing normal temperatures for December and for Dec - Feb for central Japan, and colder than average for western Japan (not that it's a great indicator, but it shows that any forecasts that far out are pretty close to random.)
     
  48. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any season similar to a normal season will not be much warmer than average until February.
     
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  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This^^

    I've seen Cortina (Hakuba) with 0cm base on Dec 15th, but with 208cm base by the 22nd Dec.(6-7 years ago)
     
  50. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold and windy today at Madarao. It either has snowed or is going to snow somewhere soon.