Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    You would think, japan being as advanced as they are, would have amazing weather prediction capabilities.
    Even mid season they don't seem to know that much.

    Is it purely because of how Japan is/where it is located etc, or is it that the Japanese don't let weather effect how they live their day to day lives that much?
     
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  2. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not sure whether you mean short term or long term. Short term, JMA is pretty good(less than a week). Long term it's not.

    If long term, definitely more to do with location and mechanisms of why it snows in Japan, IMO....

    For example, let's take Australia.
    It snows most when there's a low pressure trough in the right place(the lower the pressure the better), with a feed of cold air on the western flank(rotating clockwise), with cold fronts with thick cloud bands....
    So if there's blocking highs across Australia (for example because of a strong El Nino), then low pressure troughs get pushed south, and cold fronts miss their mark. There's also jet stream, which injects additional moisture in the right place at the right time. So that's a bit easier to predict a general trend.

    In Japan, it's the opposite. Snow in Japan is driven by HIGH pressure, which also rotates clockwise in the northern hemisphere. Huge high pressure systems across Siberia (1040hPa+) direct cold air across Japan on the eastern flank.
    These tend to establish from about mid December, right through to about early March. The exact location, strength and disposition has a big impact on whether the air flow is NW, NNW or N. If it's more to the west (like last season) there's more snow near the coast, less snow inland. But it's very difficult to pick from months out, and it's not just Japan, but the whole Asian mainland, which is huge.
    The formation of low pressure troughs across southern China, that move across Japan also disrupt that northerly. And jet stream also seems to disrupt, as I think it did last season. (I was looking at this, and the sub tropical jet stream seemed to be further north, and the polar jetstream further south than usual)
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, but it's not like I am saying there will be no powder this year. There will be heaps of powder like most years. Hope to see some nice pics. Cheers
     
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  4. McNads

    McNads One of Us

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    Agreed, the number of times I've placed faith in, and ultimately been skunked by, seasonal outlooks and the like for both Japan and Nth America, well let's just say ZERO faith in them anymore.
     
  5. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Its nice to see little snow flakes in the forecast already.
    I got snowmail for nozawa today for the 29th and 3rd at this stage.
    It has the freezing level down to 600m at the 9 day mark on snow-forecast.

    They have been really busy working on the Hikage slopes that I can see from the webcams..
    I've been building up a time lapse, so it would be good to capture a first snow.
     
  6. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My season outlook for the Japanese winter.
    There will be snow.
    It will snow.
    I will enjoy skiing powder.
     
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  7. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hate to dampen your enthusiasm for snow over the next few days but today was warm. My mogul skier was complaining at being to hot at Madarao when he was wearing shorts and a t-shirt today. But considering how cold it was yesterday another quick change could bring snow soon.

    Our view this morning in full sunshine.
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    That's a really nice photo.
    Amazing how different it looks and how quickly it changes from green to white.
    When we were in Nozawa last year we were kitting up at Tommy's rental shop on xmas day.
    It started to snow in the town for the first time (IIRC) as we were putting our boots on in the shop.
    Xmas miracle. By the time we got back down everything was white. :thumbs:
     
  9. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The pic is courtesy of my mogul skier. He will be pleased to receive compliments about his photography. :cheers:

    A day here can have a complete colour change. At the moment, every day when I drive across to Madarao the colours have changed. Lots of reds but also some trees beginning to loose their leaves.
     
  10. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's way too early to get excited about snow in central Japan.

    Early October:
    Central Japan:
     
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  11. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    GFS has some short sharp snow from lows progged to cross the island next week for Hokkaido. Still too warm South though
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Normal. For central Japan, the average max for October is around 23 degrees in Tokyo, and around 17 for November...
    Needs to be less than 11 in Tokyo for snow to fall consistently on the resorts.
     
  13. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have painting to do so I am hoping for a couple of warm days.
     
  14. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Nah. It is never to early to get excited or to have that sense of a eager anticipation.
    Just reflecting that last year we didn't see any flakes in the forecast till way into November.
     
    #214 Brad Filmer, Oct 27, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2016
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  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Coldest day time temperature in Tokyo & Yokohama today, since March I'd say.

    Tokyo 13.3 degrees to 10.1 in a couple of hours, while Yokohama dropped from 14.1 to 10.3 degrees. both after midday.
     
  16. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    [​IMG] Yamabiko this morning...

    Didn't last long of course.
     
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  17. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last night was cold enough for me to run the heating so I am not surprised there was snow.
     
  18. Four!

    Four! Hard Yards

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  19. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    GFS has some pretty epic systems progged from late next week for Hokkaido - bombing lows crossing SOJ & northerly flows incoming
     
  20. argento

    argento Hard Yards

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    are you going to Hokkaido this year?
     
  21. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    November looking the goods so far - here's hoping it builds a nice base into Dec.
     
  22. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Yes - Furano / Tomamu area

    Burned by low tide in Noz last season LOL
     
  23. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Nov 8-10....wow
     
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  24. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Yep
     
  25. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Oh my...
    [​IMG]


    And out in fantasy land...
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. gibbsy

    gibbsy Addicted

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    such early cold weather must suck for various farmers and orchardists used to predictable and defined seasonal changes. No apples! :(
     
  27. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Apples picked in Nagano from late August through to December. :emoji_apple::yum:
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It might look like an absolute ripper on the face of it, but look at those closely, in particular the 540 & 528 lines.

    Nov 5th, 540 line about where Niseko is, so now much snow down low for that(I'd say freeze level around 1200m.)
    Nov 12th, 540 line a bit south of where Niseko is eventually, so now much snow down low for that(I'd say freeze level around 900m.) But before that, a big rain event to high levels.

    What is MORE interesting, is Nov 9th, where the 540 line is around Tokyo. Snow in Nagano & Niigata down to 600m, IMO, as the lake effect kicks in. (And snow down to sea level in Hokkaido)
    [​IMG]


    And Nov 13th.
    Snow down to sea level in Hokkaido, and down to 1400m in central Japan IMO.


    [​IMG]

    And similar on 15th-16th.
    (Snow down to sea level in Hokkaido, and down to 1400m in central Japan, based on this map.)

    [​IMG]

    At this early stage, snow is driven by low pressure troughs, but looks like high pressure appearing in Siberia.
     
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  29. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    For the 9th (the max on this model) GFS would seem to agree with you.
    Between 800 and 1000m FL through Hakuba and Nozawa with 200 and 400 through Hokkaido

    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    And that lovely lake effect....

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    How good is that!! :D
    Lovely cold mainland Asia temps, fantastic
     
  32. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    And Nozawa also.... Uneotaira
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    This is tasty, Cannot wait for Feb.

    Just waiting to see that snow line get a bit lower.
     
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  35. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This was taken in front of Sapporo station. It's the first week of November, but the snow depth in Sapporo today is 25cm (it's the downtown, almost 0 meter above sea level). Many weather websites say 8th (Tuesday) and 9th (Wednesday) are likely to have more snow in Hokkaido. It's crazy, it's not December 6th day, but November 6th!
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  36. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Simply gorgeous!
    We're there in Feb, hope it keeps on building :D :D :D
     
  37. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sapporo this morning:cool:
     
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  38. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    Soon it will blow south.... I hope. Early days
     
  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Posted Tuesday last week.
    But it's too early to expect any lasting change to cold weather in central Japan.
     
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  40. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    You are a gem of information Sandy

    :cool:

    All looks much more promising compared to this time last year.
     
  41. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Ignoring the rainy low over japan for just a minute.....
    (a few days before this on the 20th has the 540 line again down towards Tokyo with strong winds across the sea)

    Check out those high pressures over central Asia!

    [​IMG]
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    15th looks nice for snow to 1000m in Central Honshu
    Sea level snow for much of Hokkaido
     
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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    #frothin
     
  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just out of interest, here's JMA's winter forecast, which personally, are not that useful IMO:
    [​IMG]


    What it's saying, is that northern Honshu & Hokkaido have a 40% probability of being warmer than average, BUT a 60% chance of being average or below average!!! Or 30% of being below or 70% of being average or above...... :doh:LOL


    Closer to the dates, closer to the truth:
    [​IMG]
    If there can be some base building in northern Honshu & Hokkaido through November, then this will provide a solid start for December snowbase.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    This one for December doesn't tell us much, because it's long range, and the forecast is wishy-washy:
    [​IMG]
     
  46. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    I've always taken those with a grain of salt
     
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  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The fact that they have 20:30:30 (below:average:above), etc, has never made sense.....
     
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  48. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you're going to post these things in the Weather Forum, please provide and explanation of the content, otherwise it doesn't mean anything.
    e.g. White could mean below zero degrees, or it could be snow up to 10cm or 50cm, blue could mean high seas.... but it doesn't mean anything without a key to the meaning.
     
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  50. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a weather forecast (tomorrow evening). White = Snow, blue = rain. The snowfall can be 30cm in Hokkaido between November 9th and 10th(A Japanese website says so).
     
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