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Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL
     
  2. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict we may need to have a new thread soon: The Japanese Snow Season 16/17 :cool:
     
  3. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll start that when it looks like they will open some places in Hokkaido
     
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  4. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    Furano have penciled in Saturday as opening day.... may end up being a washout
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Because it's the Weather Forum and not the resorts propaganda forum ( ;) ), we'll start when (or just before) the actual winter snowfall season begins, and not the resorts' launch!!! ;)
     
  6. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    ROFLROFLROFL
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay, thanks for the info. You produce some interesting information.
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, that's a little ridiculous for November.
     
  9. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    But in mid winter, not so ridiculous
     
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  10. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even in mid winter, 150cm in 24 hours at Nozawa would be extremely unusual.
    I've seen 180cm in 3 days, or 60cm in 12 hours
     
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  11. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    ****sarcasm was intended
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's when you use this: ;)

    ;) :D
     
  13. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We got it :thumbs: Actually in light of the Aus snow reports I thought it was very funny. With the actual snowfalls you get in Japan they would be reporting way more than that with the way they measure snowfall.
     
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  14. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Stay on Topic .....
    Come on Sandy ....Claude Cat is better than you in the Moderation dept ;)
     
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  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I taught CC that!!! :D

    It's the pre-season thread, so I can be a bit more lenient!! ;)
     
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  16. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only 8.0 degrees in Tokyo and dropping.

    Now, you may be tempted to think that winter is arriving, but it doesn't have the feeling of winter at all. It's raining, and meanwhile, it's just a little colder in Hakuba(6.7), at 703m. And it's 3.7 degrees at Kutchan (near Niseko)

    Yes, winter is still some time away..... ;)
     
  18. D64133

    D64133 Guest

    I just looked at the Niseko webcams and its dire! the season is ruined ! gotta cancel my flights. ;)
     
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  19. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Season is a fizzer
     
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  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's only August September October November ;)
     
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  21. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only 11.7 degrees in Tokyo today, but 20 degrees forecast tomorrow.
     
  22. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Nice and cold for a dump in Hokkaido and North Honshu. I expect the winds will dump snow in Central Honshu too!
     
  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The problem with these low pressure system driven snowfalls is what comes before:

    [​IMG]

    So any snow that's fallen before then will be washed away in central Japan, and at Niseko (for example) below 800m.

    Freezing down to sea level in the next one for central Japan, but huge wind blown is not the best for a base in Hokkaido.
    [​IMG]


    And then the NEXT 6 hour increment in the model shows something COMPLETELY different!!!! ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  25. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    Furano partially open the top yesterday
     
  26. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Did somebody order a massive high over Siberia / Mongolia?

    [​IMG]
     
  27. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Yeah still alot of movement this far out. Looks eerily like that double headed beast that swung through quite early last season - snow to funny parts of Honshu.
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Putting against the anomaly...
    [​IMG]
    Now we just need the lows to go away...
     
  29. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    Is this good or bad for honshu.. :confused:
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Complicated chart talk ;) Not really.
    About Honshu, it depends...
     
  31. Hyst

    Hyst Enjoyer Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL
     
  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's simple.....

    When the big thing gets high or the little thing gets low, sometimes it will rain, sometimes it will snow, and sometimes it won't.
    :out:
     
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  33. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see you're getting in some practice!!
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't see the funny side :confused:
     
  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Never hurts to practice..... ;)
     
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  36. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be good for Honshu you want a big fat stable mudda of a high sitting put over Siberia directing cold nor-westerleys over Japan..
     
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  37. Hyst

    Hyst Enjoyer Ski Pass: Gold

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    Asking the weatherman/woman about the weather the answer: "it depends...".
     
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  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay here's some specifics...
    [​IMG]
    Currently favouring North Honshu and Hokkaido with a NE wind with the low to the North of Hokkaido...
    @Brad Filmer Look at the big 1067hPa high over Central Russia.

    [​IMG]
    Low shifts to the east of Japan, creates Cold Northernly winds across Japan. I would expect some snow...
    Next Event 27-29 Nov
    [​IMG]
    Low passes over Japan, snow north of the low... Probably rain for Central Honshu resorts...
    [​IMG]
    Low makes way for strong northernly- ne winds for Honshu. Could be a nice snow event... Hokkaido still has the Western flank of the Low.
     
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  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possible snow forecast in Tokyo on Thursday, by JMA!!!! LOL
    If that actually happens, it will be the earliest snow I've seen in Tokyo, by probably a MONTH!!!!

    Snow forecast in Nagano City.



    Meanwhile, it was just under 22 degrees yesterday at my place in Yokohama!!!!! :whistle:
    Winter not here yet!!
     
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  40. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, and if it snows in Tokyo this month, it's the first time in the last 54 years (it snowed in Tokyo in November 1962)
     
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  41. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    13 degrees here in Nozawa , I have been in a t shirt .
     
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  42. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was going to mention the near record low temperatures later, so thanks for doing that!!!! :thumbs:

    This also explains the unusual swings in temperature we've had in Japan over November.
    While temperatures of 20+ degrees happen in November, maximums below 8 degrees are unusual.
    So with the cold and high pressure over Mongolia, we CAN get cold temperatures in Japan, but since it's still November, there's plenty of warm air off to the south of Japan, and the Kuroshio current is still warm and close off shore.
     
    #343 Sandy, Nov 21, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2016
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It has to come from that direction, and with a lot of low pressure troughs coming through, that cold air is less likely to come towards Japan.
    This is what I mean when I say that it's better if Japan doesn't get a single low pressure trough all season.
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    So the best case scenario is just northernly winds from a Siberian High's East flank without any lows being around to bring up warmer air.
     
  46. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the flip side, areas of the arctic have seen temps +20C greater than average recently

    That is a massive high pressure. 1085hpa
     
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, the two appear to be linked.
     
  48. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sandy could you please explain how the weather patterns work for Zao Onsen? Looking at a topographical map it would seem the storm systems coming off the sea of Japan first hit the mountains of Mount Ashai/Mount Itoh. Zao is a lot further from the coast than say the Niigita resorts of Nozawa, how does it receive its 10+ meters of snow each year? Is it because it is further north? Thanks for helping out this weather noob :)
     
  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's two ways Zao gets snow, both through gaps.
    - Winds just south of due west, across to the north of Niigata City.
    - A funnel that happens with a NNW wind, converging on Gassan mountain(it gets HUGE snow, and doesn't open until April), which is a peak higher than most of the surrounding mountains. The rest of the cloud skirts around and continues towards Zao.
    - It also gets some snow off east coast lows

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/plac...a3e007!8m2!3d38.1665511!4d140.3952388!5m1!1e4
     
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