Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2017-2018 Weather

Sandy

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Ok, it's not coming any time soon, but this is later than last year's!!!! ;)

Tokyo had a "guerilla downpour" the day before yesterday, in the Tokyo district of Ikebukuro.... When the rainstorm does like a guerilla in hit and run tactics.
Big hail hit in the afternoon:
DE_-fUbUIAAblVy.jpg




Meanwhile, Tokyo had the driest June in 10 years(106mm), when the rainy season normally arrives. The rainy season DID arrive, stayed a couple of days and then it diverged, with part heading a little north, and the other staying south, but at the start of July.
This rain persisted in northern Nagano & Niigata, with 312mm of rain up to the 19th in Takada, and floods in southern Kyushu.


July is also shaping up as dry in Tokyo, with just 29mm up to the 19th, with most of it falling in the above rainstorm, within a few minutes!!

And remember, there may be a possible correlation between the average August max temperature in Tokyo, and bad seasons the following winter. (<31 degrees)
 

bondibob

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So that means other factors need to be looked at right like AO and MJO like in Australia?

But generally speaking it will be avergely epic rather than amazingly epic like in a La Niña?

I got super excited seeing this thread...the itch has started already. I am trying. America first this year and then japan in feb.
 
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bondibob

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Follow up noob question: in general terms, what does that mean for snow fall in Japan?
Japan is amazing regardless...unless your comparing japan against Japan year on year But I believe it means average season but lots of other climate factors need to come into play. ENSO isn't the only driver
 
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Froff Life

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Japan is amazing regardless...unless your comparing japan against Japan year on year But I believe it means average season but lots of other climate factors need to come into play. ENSO isn't the only driver
This will be my 6th year in a row to the lovely country, so I will be comparing to previous years, and its about time I brush up on my weather knowledge.
 

LMB

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12th year to Japan, and first ever 'full' season (its not quite full, we were going to stay until lifts closed but have to get back by 6 April, so just over 4 months). I don't mind if its not a crazy huge year, but because we have lots of first time friends coming Id love often and regular top ups so everyone has a good time. Please, snowgods, I've been a very good girl!
 

Sandy

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Typical August conditions around Tokyo but still July:
Min overnight: 26.7 degrees
8am 28 degrees, 79% humidity.

No sign of any rain though....
 

Deanski

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ITs funny reading some of you guys and girls mentioning this year might be an average season....our first trip there in January and our only real and recent comparison is to the last 6 years shoulder seasons trips at Perisher. So unless we arrive and we are stuck on one run of man made snow, skiing with 2 million kids racing in the Japan interschools, paying 98 bucks for a kebab and a beer, I am not overly worried :)
 

Sandy

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ITs funny reading some of you guys and girls mentioning this year might be an average season....our first trip there in January and our only real and recent comparison is to the last 6 years shoulder seasons trips at Perisher. So unless we arrive and we are stuck on one run of man made snow, skiing with 2 million kids racing in the Japan interschools, paying 98 bucks for a kebab and a beer, I am not overly worried :)
An "average" season in Japan is like a once in 20+ year season in Australia!!!! ;)
 
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skidazza

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Thats what I figured :)
My first Japan trip was Feb 2016 - a very ordinary season by Japanese standards - and it was still immeasurably better than anything I've ever skied in Oz! Don't get me wrong - I love skiing in Oz (or anywhere for that matter) - but Japan is on a whole different level. Planning to head back (to Shiga Kogen) this Jan/Feb - "average" season or not :)
 
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bondibob

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ITs funny reading some of you guys and girls mentioning this year might be an average season....our first trip there in January and our only real and recent comparison is to the last 6 years shoulder seasons trips at Perisher. So unless we arrive and we are stuck on one run of man made snow, skiing with 2 million kids racing in the Japan interschools, paying 98 bucks for a kebab and a beer, I am not overly worried :)
You will have the time of your life...too much snow is likely to be the problem rather than anything else
 

ju87

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always happy to see this thread pop up. here's hoping that mother nature treats Hokkaido better this winter.
 

2ESki

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Our first trip there for the last week of Jan so have got my fingers crossed :whistle:
 

Sandy

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Landfall for typhoon Noru. Not so strong, but still 140kph winds and heavy rain.
Rain will hit Tokyo within the next few hours. 33 degrees, and humid

201708070750-00.png
 

skidazza

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Flights booked! Adelaide/Tokyo (Narita) return for $935 with Qantas (sale is on now). Last week of Feb. Now just need to decide where to ski :)
 
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skull

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Tossing up between 2 weeks in Jan in Japan or the States.

Wife is a beginner, I would say I'm close to intermediate. Niseko looks like it might be a good choice. Not sure if we are taking kids yet, will be 3 and 5.

The reason for states potentially is we have epic passes. Although it appears significantly cheaper to get to Japan but then looking at accommodation Niseko will cost more.
 

Crispy013

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Tossing up between 2 weeks in Jan in Japan or the States.

Wife is a beginner, I would say I'm close to intermediate. Niseko looks like it might be a good choice. Not sure if we are taking kids yet, will be 3 and 5.

The reason for states potentially is we have epic passes. Although it appears significantly cheaper to get to Japan but then looking at accommodation Niseko will cost more.
There is more to Japan than just Niseko...
 
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skull

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There is more to Japan than just Niseko...

Really.

Might be why I said looking at our level niseko might be a good option.

But thanks for providing other options there. Thanks

But back on topic, judging by the comments on this threat mid Jan might be good timing in terms of coverage.
 
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LMB

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Tossing up between 2 weeks in Jan in Japan or the States.

Wife is a beginner, I would say I'm close to intermediate. Niseko looks like it might be a good choice. Not sure if we are taking kids yet, will be 3 and 5.

The reason for states potentially is we have epic passes. Although it appears significantly cheaper to get to Japan but then looking at accommodation Niseko will cost more.
There are plenty of other places in Japan, yes. But Niseko would suit your needs. And be a fairly easy introduction to Japan whether you brought your kids or not. Fabulous lessons in English, new investment in 3 new beginner lifts/areas for this season, child care and kids lessons. As well as a full variety of food options so you can experience traditional Japanese fare or if the kids will only eat burgers and pizza you've got that option too.

If you wanted to explore other areas, fabulous, but if you're happy to try Niseko don't let the negative nellies drag you down. I've been going to Niseko for 12 years. I've also been to a number of other resorts in Hokkaido, Honshu and other countries (not US or Canada, so can't help you there). They are ALL awesome.
 

Sandy

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After 37 degrees, plus humidity in Tokyo earlier in the week ( and up to 39 degrees just to the north), yesterday was unusually cool for August.... Just 24 degrees!!!!
 

Eros C

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Have booked my second tour of duty with my 16 year old son arriving mid January 2018. Best wife for giving me another leave card. I'm sure I will pay for it in some way. Loved our first trip to Japan and Nesiko this year. Snow was down apparently, however still skied on the best conditions compared to Oz. Looking for more of a cultural fix this time around and heading to Shiga, Nozawa and Tokyo city on return. Hoping the snow gods are looking down at us and bless our trip with a good season.
 
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Crispy013

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Really.

Might be why I said looking at our level niseko might be a good option.

But thanks for providing other options there. Thanks

But back on topic, judging by the comments on this threat mid Jan might be good timing in terms of coverage.
Niseko is a perfectly fine option, but it is (most likely) the most expensive place to ski in Japan. It's like saying, I'm thinking of skiing in Canada, but Whistler looks very expensive...

If price is a big factor, then there are plenty of others options out there in Japan that would suit your needs. Apart from your skill level and the possibility of having some young ones with you, are there any other must haves with the resort? Groomers? Powder? Trees? Park? Are you after a cultural experience, or do you prefer western cuisine, accomodation and English speaking?
 

Sandy

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After a July that was a couple of degrees above average in Tokyo (31.8), and some scorching days the first week in August, we've had unseasonably cool temperatures, with the last few days 26 degrees or less.... Today looks like it won't top 23!!!
And after a dry rainy season in Tokyo during June/July, it has returned!!! Along with the usual stationary boundary, characteristic of the rainy season..... looks like 8 days in a row of rain.
 
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ju87

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After a July that was a couple of degrees above average in Tokyo (31.8), and some scorching days the first week in August, we've had unseasonably cool temperatures, with the last few days 26 degrees or less.... Today looks like it won't top 23!!!
And after a dry rainy season in Tokyo during June/July, it has returned!!! Along with the usual stationary boundary, characteristic of the rainy season..... looks like 8 days in a row of rain.

Does this tell you anything about what we can expect this winter?
 

Sandy

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After a July that was a couple of degrees above average in Tokyo (31.8), and some scorching days the first week in August, we've had unseasonably cool temperatures, with the last few days 26 degrees or less.... Today looks like it won't top 23!!!
And after a dry rainy season in Tokyo during June/July, it has returned!!! Along with the usual stationary boundary, characteristic of the rainy season..... looks like 8 days in a row of rain.
Does this tell you anything about what we can expect this winter?
It's not statistically reliable as an indicator, but an average August max temperature in Tokyo lower than 31 degrees sometimes leads to a lean snow season the following winter. Current average is 30.0 degrees.
 

Sandy

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We've got the whole lot in Tokyo and Yokohama tonight. Most amazing thunderstorm..... Continuous lightning (I mean lit up ALL the time), for the last 40min. Slightly easing off now, but many ground strikes.
All areas with thunderstorm advisory, heavy rain warning, and some areas with flood advisory and warning.
 

Zimboo

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We've got the whole lot in Tokyo and Yokohama tonight. Most amazing thunderstorm..... Continuous lightning (I mean lit up ALL the time), for the last 40min. Slightly easing off now, but many ground strikes.
All areas with thunderstorm advisory, heavy rain warning, and some areas with flood advisory and warning.
Saw the weather forecast for Tokyo tonight here on SBS news..............had a difference of only 5 degrees over 24 hours between min and max .........wet and humid.
 

Sandy

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We've got the whole lot in Tokyo and Yokohama tonight. Most amazing thunderstorm..... Continuous lightning (I mean lit up ALL the time), for the last 40min. Slightly easing off now, but many ground strikes.
All areas with thunderstorm advisory, heavy rain warning, and some areas with flood advisory and warning.

Saw the weather forecast for Tokyo tonight here on SBS news..............had a difference of only 5 degrees over 24 hours between min and max .........wet and humid.

That sort of temperature difference is not unusual though.
For example, it's common for it to drop to 26 degrees, after being 32 degrees during the day, so it's not an indicator of rain.
Average August max is around 31.5 degrees, average min is around 24.5

Today, there was a 7 degree differential: low of 23.1, high of 30.3
But it WAS humid today, min of around 75%.
 

Ramenman

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Neither El Nino nor La Nina now, so the only hint to guess the weather of coming winter now is the state of the sea ice of Barents Sea. I heard less ice = colder and better ski season for Japan and less ice was seen in 2012. I remember 2012 was the best season.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00449.1
Abstract
Sea ice variability over the Barents Sea with its resultant atmospheric response has been considered one of the triggers of unexpected downstream climate change. For example, East Asia has experienced several major cold events while the underlying temperature over the Arctic has risen steadily. To understand the influence of sea ice in the Barents Sea on atmospheric circulation during winter from a synoptic perspective, this study evaluated the downstream response in cyclone activities with respect to the underlying sea ice variability. The composite analysis, including all cyclone events over the Nordic seas, revealed that an anticyclonic anomaly prevailed along the Siberian coast during light ice years over the Barents Sea. This likely caused anomalous warm advection over the Barents Sea and cold advection over eastern Siberia. The difference in cyclone paths between heavy and light ice years was expressed as a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian (WACS) anomaly. The lower baroclinicity over the Barents Sea during the light ice years, which resulted from a weak gradient in sea surface temperature, prevented cyclones from traveling eastward. This could lead to fewer cyclones and hence to an anticyclonic anomaly over the Siberian coast.
 
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Sandy

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Neither El Nino nor La Nina now, so the only hint to guess the weather of coming winter is the state of the sea ice of Barents Sea. I heard less ice = colder and better ski season and less ice was seen in 2012. I remember 2012 was the best season.
That's not the way it worked in 2016/17, early in the season.
Lack of sea ice meant warmer temperatures over the northern parts of Russia, where it was 20 degrees above average in some places in December 2016. The increased evaporation led to lower pressure, and shifted the high pressure further south, leading to clearer nights, and extremely cold temperatures in Mongolia. On a few occasions, this cold air was pushed south over Japan, bringing snow. But all up, that did not lead to an overall change in snow, and less ice = better ski season in Japan has no statistical basis for a causal link.

The sea ice extent for the Arctic is very similar now(August) as it was in 2016 & 2015. However, the sea ice for November & December was lower in 2016, than in 2012. So there MAY be some link between very low ice extent in November & December, and late season start in central Honshu. But there's not enough data to support that.
 

Ramenman

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That's not the way it worked in 2016/17, early in the season.
Lack of sea ice meant warmer temperatures over the northern parts of Russia, where it was 20 degrees above average in some places in December 2016. The increased evaporation led to lower pressure, and shifted the high pressure further south, leading to clearer nights, and extremely cold temperatures in Mongolia. On a few occasions, this cold air was pushed south over Japan, bringing snow. But all up, that did not lead to an overall change in snow, and less ice = better ski season in Japan has no statistical basis for a causal link.

The sea ice extent for the Arctic is very similar now(August) as it was in 2016 & 2015. However, the sea ice for November & December was lower in 2016, than in 2012. So there MAY be some link between very low ice extent in November & December, and late season start in central Honshu. But there's not enough data to support that.

I'm not a weather expert like Sandy-san is. All I can remember is that less ice was seen in 2012, 2012 was actually colder and 2012 had so much snow in Japan. I know colder winter doesn't mean more snow but I think colder winter is better for ski resorts in Nagano and Niigata because they are in relatively lower latitude, so winter rain can ruin their ski slopes if it's warmer. I heard Hokkaido is the opposite, though, I mean, as a result of global warming, Hokkaido will become even more snowy in the 22nd century, and some ski resorts in Honshu too.


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/j/kids/press_release/20120201/
fig5.jpg


fig4.jpg
 
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Sandy

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Bright green up to August is the current 2017 sea ice
Dark green is 2015 sea ice
Red is 2016 sea ice (Last snow season)
2015, 2016, and 2017 were all similar in August.

Dotted is 2012 sea ice. Notice how 2012 was low in AUGUST, but 2016 was LOWER in late Oct, Nov/Dec, leading into the snow season.
And how 2015 & 2012 were similar in late Nov/Dec.... but clearly 2015/16 was a bad season.

Sea ice.jpg
 

Ramenman

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Bright green up to August is the current 2017 sea ice
Dark green is 2015 sea ice
Red is 2016 sea ice (Last snow season)
2015, 2016, and 2017 were all similar in August.

Dotted is 2012 sea ice. Notice how 2012 was low in AUGUST, but 2016 was LOWER in late Oct, Nov/Dec, leading into the snow season.
And how 2015 & 2012 were similar in late Nov/Dec.... but clearly 2015/16 was a bad season.

Sea ice.jpg

Many different factors are affecting weather, which makes it very difficult to guess how coming winter will be like. For example, 2015 summer to 2016 spring was El Nino while 2011 - 12 ski season was not El Nino. Less ice was seen in 2005 - 06 season too and 2005 - 06 ski season had so much snow in Japan and the season was not El Nino but it was La Nina. Speaking of 2005 -06 season, I heard it snowed too much and it made slopes of ex Arai resort closed because of the high risk of avalanche and it hampered cars and shuttle buss to Arai, which is one of the reasons Arai went bankrupt in 2006.

El Nino / La Nina, sea ice of Barents Sea, and many other factors can affect the weather of coming winter. But I'm just trying to be hopeful for the coming winter. Less ice is seen now and no El Nino now just like 2011-12 and 2005-06 seasons, and both 2011-12 and 2005-06 seasons were great, so I'm hopeful that the coming ski season will be great;)

Some researchers say less Barents Sea ice in summer to autumn tend to result in severe winter coming to Japan.
http://scienceportal.jst.go.jp/news/newsflash_review/review/2017/08/20170808_01.html
夏から秋にかけて海氷が少ないと、日本は厳冬になる
N_iqr_timeseries.png
 
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Sandy

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Many different factors are affecting weather, which makes it very difficult to guess how coming winter will be like. For example, 2015 summer to 2016 spring was El Nino while 2011 - 12 ski season was not El Nino. Less ice was seen in 2005 - 06 season too and 2005 - 06 ski season had so much snow in Japan and the season was not El Nino but it was La Nina. Speaking of 2005 -06 season, I heard it snowed too much and it made slopes of ex Arai resort closed because of the high risk of avalanche and it hampered cars and shuttle buss to Arai, which is one of the reasons Arai went bankrupt in 2006.

El Nino / La Nina, sea ice of Barents Sea, and many other factors can affect the weather of coming winter. But I'm just trying to be hopeful for the coming winter. Less ice is seen now and no El Nino now just like 2011-12 and 2005-06 seasons, and both 2011-12 and 2005-06 seasons were great, so I'm hopeful that the coming ski season will be great;)

Some researchers say less Barents Sea ice in summer to autumn tend to result in colder winter coming to Japan.
http://scienceportal.jst.go.jp/news/newsflash_review/review/2017/08/20170808_01.html

N_iqr_timeseries.png

It says this:
"At that time, it was said that in the year when the Arctic Ocean ice is less from summer to autumn, the Far East region such as Japan will get cold in the next winter. In 2005, when September ice on the coast of Siberia was extremely small, cold weather came to Japan in that winter from that year to the following year, becoming "heavy snowfall in 2006"."

This statement can't always be correct, if you look at the data. If you read something a "researcher" says, you should always examine the data
For example, look at the ACTUAL data below.
- 2012 is the dotted line
- 2005 is the light green upper line
- 2015 the lower dark green line, which shows that there was less sea ice in summer 2015, than in summer 2005.
- 2017 partial bottom green line.

The above statement cannot be proven to have a consistent correlation, because 2016 was a warm winter. Therefore, "in the year when the Arctic Ocean ice is less from summer to autumn, the Far East region such as Japan will get cold in the next winter" is not correct.

2016 had much lower sea ice in summer & September than 2005, but not as low as 2012.
And 2016 had the lowest late October, November & December arctic sea ice ON RECORD, lower than the second lowest, 2012. AND also Jan/Feb 2017 was also the lowest on record.
This shows that there MAY be a correlation between low Arctic sea ice in Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb, but it doesn't prove there IS a correlation, even though Jan/Feb were cold in Japan.


Sea ice 2.jpg
 
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