Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

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Sandy

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And closer!
201808080700-00.png


I reckon it might be a little damp tonight! ;)

Centre is 970hPa

sfc3_2018072803.png
 
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Sandy

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Dodged a bullet. The bulk of the cloud has just grazed Japan at this stage:
201808082150-00.png


Sendai on the north east coast of Honshu may still cop it though
 
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Sandy

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Temps in Tokyo are looking more respectable for this time of year over the next week
Well, it's certainly not the heatwave we were having(34-37C, and hottest July on record), but generally, the forecast for the next week is still a little above average: 33,34,32,31,33,34,34
But I think that's bearable, based on what we've had!!!! ;)
 

Sandy

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When was the last El Nino season?

2015/2016

Myoko (central Japan):
- 2017/2018 snowfall: 1308cm
- 2016/2017 snowfall: 1478cm
- 2015/2016 snowfall: 878cm

Niseko:
- 2017/2018 snowfall: 1109cm
- 2016/2017 snowfall: 688cm
- 2015/2016 snowfall: 992cm

However, that was a VERY STRONG El Nino, which are rare. There is no statistical link between lack of snow in Japan and a "regular" El Nino.
The last Moderate El Nino before that was 2009/2010, and weak were 2006/2007 & 2014/2015.

And this particular forecast has a 60-70% probability.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
 

Froff Life

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2015/2016

Myoko (central Japan):
- 2017/2018 snowfall: 1308cm
- 2016/2017 snowfall: 1478cm
- 2015/2016 snowfall: 878cm

Niseko:
- 2017/2018 snowfall: 1109cm
- 2016/2017 snowfall: 688cm
- 2015/2016 snowfall: 992cm

However, that was a VERY STRONG El Nino, which are rare. There is no statistical link between lack of snow in Japan and a "regular" El Nino.
The last Moderate El Nino before that was 2009/2010, and weak were 2006/2007 & 2014/2015.

And this particular forecast has a 60-70% probability.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
I skied Niseko in 2015/16 season, still lots of snow around!
 

Sandy

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Hakuba cumulative snowfall:
Snowfall Hakuba.png

Very Strong El Nino: 2015/2016 : LOWEST on that graph.
Weak El Nino: 2014/2015: HIGHEST on that graph.
Moderate El Nino: 2009/2010: ABOVE average
Weak La Nina: 2008/2009: Almost as bad as 2015/2016

Conclusion from limited data: No link between low snow in central Japan and El Nino, except for (possibly) Very Strong El Nino
 
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Sandy

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Does the El Nino increase the average temps, meaning more rain than usual?
upload_2018-8-17_9-52-0.png
In general for Japan (according to that graphic) it does mean warmer temperatures, but the strength of the El Nino determines by how much. i.e Weak & Moderate probably makes no noticeable difference.

Regarding rain, it's driven more by sea surface temperatures, and low pressure driven from the Asian mainland.
For example, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 had more low pressure troughs moving off central/southern China, and both were weak La Nina (opposite to El Nino). 2017/2018 started early, finished early, and at one stage in late January and through February, there was a rain event almost every week.
I'd be more satisfied with a weak El Nino, with less likelihood of Chinese pressure troughs, allowing a more consistent northerly prevailing wind.... which is what brings consistent snow and less rain events in central Japan
 

Jellybeans

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For example, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 had more low pressure troughs moving off central/southern China, and both were weak La Nina (opposite to El Nino). 2017/2018 started early, finished early, and at one stage in late January and through February, there was a rain event almost every wee
Which brings the question, why? Maybe Himalayan mountain torques or maybe the MJO ....
 

Sandy

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Which brings the question, why? Maybe Himalayan mountain torques or maybe the MJO ....
I was watching the situation at the eastern Himalayas last Japanese season. Many of those southern Chinese lows were seeded in the eastern Himalayas. You could see them progress across western China, and then fire up before hitting the East China Sea. This pattern was repeating every 6-7 days:
MLSP 2018-01-22 1200z Prog.png


Southern China lows.jpg
 

Sandy

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Snow at Kurodake, earliest on record apparently (courtesy Myoko FB page):
39408809_1971123756283067_8168603780640669696_n.jpg
We've had a big cold front & trough come through northern Japan. Strong winds here in Yokohama, with a big northerly fetch in Hokkaido.
Not enough to drop temperatures much here, but they were getting 12 degrees in Ashikawa overnight.


Plus three typhoons in this map:
sfc3_2018081700.png
 
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Jellybeans

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I was watching the situation at the eastern Himalayas last Japanese season. Many of those southern Chinese lows were seeded in the eastern Himalayas. You could see them progress across western China, and then fire up before hitting the East China Sea. This pattern was repeating every 6-7 days:
MLSP 2018-01-22 1200z Prog.png


Southern China lows.jpg
Yes I agree, but why do they seed there? I'll do some digging before the season.
 

Sandy

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I was watching the situation at the eastern Himalayas last Japanese season. Many of those southern Chinese lows were seeded in the eastern Himalayas. You could see them progress across western China, and then fire up before hitting the East China Sea. This pattern was repeating every 6-7 days:
MLSP 2018-01-22 1200z Prog.png


Southern China lows.jpg
Yes I agree, but why do they seed there? I'll do some digging before the season.
They don't always seed there. Last season was quite different.
 

Sandy

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They don't always seed there. Last season was quite different.
Where is the norm?
When we get low pressure troughs, they often form in northern China and move across the Sea of Japan.
This is what it was doing earlier last season, in December:
2017-12-24-12z MSLP Japan.png


The others that form over southern China sometimes cause snow in Tokyo, which doesn't usually happen with the northern lows.
This is why we got snow more often in Tokyo last season, than I've seen recently.
 

Ramenman

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It's reported it snowed at Kurodake, Hokkaido yesterday and it's the earliest snow since 1974o_O. Mid July to mid August is supposed to be the hottest there:p
 

telenomore

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Also snowed at Asahi Dake as you can imagine, a few peaks in Daisetsusan had a dusting. "Obon" holidays just finished and despite it being formally still summer, locals here call August 16/17 the start of autumn! Straight after Obon.
 
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Sandy

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Also snowed at Asahi Dake as you can imagine, a few peaks in Daisetsusan had a dusting. "Obon" holidays just finished and despite it being formally still summer, locals here call August 16/17 the start of autumn! Straight after Obon.
We'll see! ;)
It'll be mid/high 20s there again by Mon for at least the rest of the week in htat part of Hokkaido.


So far, we've had hotter average maximums in Tokyo & Yokohama for July, than for August.
Last year, we had a cooler than average August.

Overall, the temperatures for central Japan have almost been seemingly a 3-4 earlier than normal since summer 2017:
- August 2017 cooler, almost like September. (maybe 3 weeks early in Tokyo)
- Snow in central and northern Japan around 3-4 weeks earlier than usual (late November in central Japan)
- Snow season snow tapers off 1 month earlier than usual
- February warmest on record in Tokyo, around 2 degrees above average.
- March warmest on record in Tokyo, around 2 degrees above average.
- July heatwave hottest on record, around 2 degrees above average.
 

Ramenman

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I hope the typhoons will bring a lot of rain to Tokyo - Ibaraki area. This summer has been hot and dry here, our fruits and vegetables need more rain!
 

Sandy

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We'll see! ;)
It'll be mid/high 20s there again by Mon for at least the rest of the week in htat part of Hokkaido.


So far, we've had hotter average maximums in Tokyo & Yokohama for July, than for August.
Last year, we had a cooler than average August.

Overall, the temperatures for central Japan have almost been seemingly a 3-4 earlier than normal since summer 2017:
- August 2017 cooler, almost like September. (maybe 3 weeks early in Tokyo)
- Snow in central and northern Japan around 3-4 weeks earlier than usual (late November in central Japan)
- Snow season snow tapers off 1 month earlier than usual
- February warmest on record in Tokyo, around 2 degrees above average.
- March warmest on record in Tokyo, around 2 degrees above average.
- July heatwave hottest on record, around 2 degrees above average.
I'm also wondering if the typhoon season has started 3 weeks early... ;)
201808222320-00.png

sfc3_2018082221.png


I'd say that judging by the paths, they could end up combining out in the Sea of Japan, on Friday
 

Sandy

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Heavy rain in Wakayama Prefecture:
2018-08-23 2100.png

2018-08-23 2130.png


One place(Nishikawa) has had > 300mm today, including 79.5mm in the last hour!!!

#### This is not good. Another 57.5mm in the last hour...... that's 137mm in 2 hours, and 284mm in the last 6 hours!!!
 
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Sandy

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Heavy rain in Wakayama Prefecture:
2018-08-23 2100.png

2018-08-23 2130.png


One place(Nishikawa) has had > 300mm today, including 79.5mm in the last hour!!!

#### This is not good. Another 57.5mm in the last hour...... that's 137mm in 2 hours, and 284mm in the last 6 hours!!!
And 321mm in 7 hours.
Another place had 202mm in four hours.

It seems that, for the first time, five typhoons formed around the Japan region on five consecutive days, between Aug. 12 and 16.
 

PMG

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And 321mm in 7 hours.
Another place had 202mm in four hours.

It seems that, for the first time, five typhoons formed around the Japan region on five consecutive days, between Aug. 12 and 16.
It seems to be the summer for records.
 

Sandy

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The end of summer stationary boundary seems to have appeared on the weather maps in the last week or so.

In about May, the "rainy season" stationary boundary starts off near the Philippines and moves slowly north, hitting southern Japan about early June, and central Japan about mid June(usually about 4-6 weeks duration). It eventually passes slightly further north, where it then dissipates about in early/mid July. This ended early this year, around late June.

In September, the stationary boundary and rain appears again for about a week, heading south. When it moves through, the cooler air follows. This usually happens in the 2nd or 3rd week in September, but many of these normal processes seem to have been happening earlier in the last year.

Here's the map:
18083003.png

You can also see it on the Korean map as a rain boundary.
sfc3_2018083000.png
 
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