Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

[Ramenman]

Big rain totals in some places in Kyushu.....
- Tashiro. 197mm in 4 hours
A few places 120mm in 3 hours, including 70mm+ in one hour.

This says 120mm within an hour in some regions of Miyazaki Pref.
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20180930-00010006-wmap-soci

Tokyo's annual precipitation is about 1,500mm. So 120mm is 8%. Today's Miyazaki's one hour rainfall accounts for 8% of Tokyo's annual rainfall!?

 

[Sandy]

This says 120mm within an hour in some regions of Miyazaki Pref.
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20180930-00010006-wmap-soci

Tokyo's annual precipitation is about 1,500mm. So 120mm is 8%. Today's Miyazaki's one hour rainfall accounts for 8% of Tokyo's annual rainfall!?

Two months ago, during the floods, one place had 350mm+ in just two hours.

 

[Sandy]

Typhoon Trami moving up into Honshu now.
At 3pm, winds 147kph, gusting to 183kph.


Lowest pressures:
Kyushu & islands south:
952.6 hPa in Naze
952.8 hPa in Yakushima
953.0 hPa in Tanegashima

Shikoku:
964.6 hPa in Sukumo
970.4 hPa in Kochi City

Honshu:
965.8 hPa in Shionomisaki
968.7 hPa in Wakayama

These are LOW pressures!!!

Starting to get windy in Yokohama. Pressure is still fairly high, at 995.6 hPa.

Amazing "feathery" clouds!!

 

[skichanger]

Raining constantly here at MAdarao now. Today was a mix of sunshine and rain. Met some people walking the Shinetsu trail over the next few days. May not be the best time to be doing that.

 

[Sandy]

Big rain totals hitting Shizuoka Prefecture, to the west of Tokyo. Should clear Tokyo by 5am.

Disruption to transport likely due to debris. Gusts to 128kph just near my place in Yokohama (I'm about 200m from the weather station)

 

[Ramenman]

NHK was reporting Tokyo's today's daily high temperature is likely to be 34 degrees. 34 degrees is 2 or 3 degrees higher than the average daily high temperature of the hottest week of a year = first week of August. I know typhoons bring warm air, but still, 34 degrees in October is amazing

Edit:
Today's daily high, not tomorrow's. I mean, October 1st's daily high temperature.

 

[Ramenman]

NHK was reporting Tokyo's tomorrow's daily high temperature is likely to be 34 degrees. 34 degrees is 2 or 3 degrees higher than the average daily high temperature of the hottest week of a year = first week of August. I know typhoons bring warm air, but still, 34 degrees in October is amazing

According to JMA, Tokyo's highest temperature in October is 32.6 degrees and it was recorded on October 1st 1976. So if the temperature really reaches 34 degrees, 1.4 degrees higher

 

[Sandy]

NHK was reporting Tokyo's tomorrow's daily high temperature is likely to be 34 degrees. 34 degrees is 2 or 3 degrees higher than the average daily high temperature of the hottest week of a year = first week of August. I know typhoons bring warm air, but still, 34 degrees in October is amazing

This year, the average max for July in Tokyo was 32.7C and 32.5 in August.

I'm betting it won't get to 34 degrees tomorrow.
The wind will turn northerly tomorrow, so if it gets warm, it will get warm early before dropping fairly quickly in the afternoon, IMO.

 

[Sandy]

Disruption to transport likely due to debris. Gusts to 128kph just near my place in Yokohama (I'm about 200m from the weather station)

The typhoon has cleared right up to Hokkaido now.
It ended up that highest gust here in Yokohama was 138kph, 141kph in Tokyo and 142kph at Haneda. Other places around the Kanto/Tokyo bay area may have had gusts closer to 150kph.
In Kyushu, Okinawa and islands between, there seems to be reports of gusts up 222kph.

 

[PMG]

What's happening with the following one now?

 

[Sandy]

What's happening with the following one now?

Typhoon Kong-Rey is expected to track more to the north of Taiwan, but I suppose it could also swing right, towards Japan.
It currently Cat 2, and you can see it east of the Philippines:

 

[Ramenman]

Oh, another typhoon is heading to Japan?. If it hits Japan, it'll be sixth or seventh one this year?. Which country is the most typhoon prone country in the world, Philippines, Taiwan or Japan?

 

[Sandy]

Oh, another typhoon is heading to Japan?. If it hits Japan, it'll be sixth or seventh one this year?. Which country is the most typhoon prone country in the world, Philippines, Taiwan or Japan?

Number one is China. 2nd Philippines, and Japan 3rd, followed by Mexico (includes typhoons, hurricanes and cyclones).
Taiwan is 7th.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-cyclone-hits-by-country-typhoon-hurricane

 

[Ramenman]

Northern Ibaraki cities are setting October's record high temperatures now. For example, according to JMA, Takahagi city's October's highest temperature was 29.8C till today, but it was 31.6C at 10 am today. Takahagi city, Hitachi city and Kitaibaraki cities are three northernmost cities of Ibaraki Pref, and they are coastal cities and their weather stations are within 2 km away from the nearest beaches. Usually coastal cities are a lot cooler than inland cities, but they are hotter now. Those cities are 150 - 180km north of Tokyo, but they are hotter than Tokyo now. Tokyo was 29.2C at 10 am, so 2.4C lower.

 

[skichanger]

Earlier this week it was cold enough to have the heating on. It works! But today, down in Iiyama it was 32.

 

[telenomore]

JMA update discussing El Nino for the coming season. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

 

[Jellybeans]

My preliminary winter outlook for the NH Winter 2018-19 is now out. Full Japanese outlook coming soon.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.

"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."

 

[Froff Life]

My preliminary winter outlook for the NH Winter 2018-19 is now out. Full Japanese outlook coming soon.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.

"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."

Looking forward to your weather expertise this coming season
But can you please translate that paragraph, it was like reading a different language haha

 

[GazStreats]

My preliminary winter outlook for the NH Winter 2018-19 is now out. Full Japanese outlook coming soon.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.

"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."[/QU

 

[GazStreats]

Thanks Jellybeans so informative and great reading look forward to you seasonal outlook for Japan winter especially for Hokkaido Gazstreats

 

[Jellybeans]

Looking forward to your weather expertise this coming season
But can you please translate that paragraph, it was like reading a different language haha

All those factors are broken down in the outlook, but I will summarise it here.

QBO is the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, which is a measure of stratospheric equatorial winds.
Basin-wide El Niño, means warm anomalies throughout the equatorial regions of the Pacific, except for the far West near Indonesia.
PDO is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
EPO is the Eastern Pacific Oscillation, that encompasses the region offshore of Alaska and Western Canada.
AO is the Arctic Oscillation, which is a big part of the Japanese outlook.
NAO is the North Atlantic Oscillation.
And the Aleutian Low is the low midway through the North Pacific, typically around the Bering Sea.
Scandi blocking, is in essence a high around Scandinavia, and Barents-Kara Sea blocking means a high North of Russia.

 

[Froff Life]

Thanks Jelly. I'd certainly be happy with an average season for Japan!
Looks like East Coast US is in for a bumper season too which will plese some relatives I have living in NYC

 

[chris_f]

awesome so we are predicting - "A slightly above average snowfall season for Japan." fingers crossed!!

 

[Crispy013]

First flutter of the 18-19 season?

 

[Jellybeans]

First flutter of the 18-19 season?

EC looking a bit too westerly. But certainly something to keep a watch of.

Quite a deep low too (plus recurving typhoon not too far away).

 

[Jellybeans]

And just like that, my definitive seasonal forecast for the Japanese Winter 2018-19 is now out.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/japanese-winter-outlook-2018-19.html

Earlier than last year's, but the same level of focus on the models and drivers. And also my musings on how the season will go for Hokkaido and Central Honshu at the bottom.

An extract: "My forecast is for Hokkaido to have a slightly above average snowfall season, and Central Honshu to have a slightly below average season IMO."

 

[Sandy]

11.9 degrees in Tokyo overnight. Feels a bit chilly in Yokohama!!!

 

[Sandy]

And snow on the top 1000m of Mt Fuji.!!!

 

[Ramenman]

This morning, Kuzakai, Iwate Pref at 750m above sea level was -2.8C. Sizukuishi, Iwate Pref at 195m above sea level was 0.0C. The base of Sizukuishi ski resort is at 430m above sea level. So it's getting cold enough to snow at the bases of ski resorts in northern Tohoku!.

 

[Stiffler]

And just like that, my definitive seasonal forecast for the Japanese Winter 2018-19 is now out.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/japanese-winter-outlook-2018-19.html

Earlier than last year's, but the same level of focus on the models and drivers. And also my musings on how the season will go for Hokkaido and Central Honshu at the bottom.

An extract: "My forecast is for Hokkaido to have a slightly above average snowfall season, and Central Honshu to have a slightly below average season IMO."

Oh bugger a 10m season instead of a 13m season

 

[Froff Life]

Oh bugger a 10m season instead of a 13m season

Hokkadio FTW!

 

[Sandy]

Looks like October will be the warmest on record in Tokyo.....

 

[hotsaki]

Probably warmest on record in Darwin.We are living in a sauna at the moment.

 

[Froff Life]

 

[foxbat]

ok.....drooling started

 

[chris_f]

First snowfall today also at ground level in Hirafu today ... Photos courtesy of 360Niseko!!
awesome blog via http://360niseko.com/snowfall-arrives-niseko/

 

[chris_f]

Hakuba also!!

 

[foxbat]

Hey guys.....can someone help me find a live cam I was using to keep an eye on things in Niseko. The cam was situated at the main intersection in Hirafu and looked up the street..........can't seem to find it ( and yes, should have saved to favs

 

[Stiffler]

Looks like October will be the warmest on record in Tokyo.....

Well except for the Eocene period in earths past that is.......

 

[Sandy]

Looks like October will be the warmest on record in Tokyo.....

Well except for the Eocene period in earths past that is.......

Tokyo wasn't around in the Eocene, nor were there any monthly records.

 

[dcx3]

some potential of winter looking weather around the 16th

 

[Sandy]

some potential of winter looking weather around the 16th

And it will be about bloody time too....
Record warm October, and a warm November so far!!

 

[squanchy]

Yes long range, deterministic but I am interested in whats shaping up around 21st

 

[squanchy]

...

 

[DidSurfNowSki]

And it will be about bloody time too....
Record warm October, and a warm November so far!!

Hey Sandy, do you subscribe to the 'hot summer = high snowfall in winter' theory ?

 

[Sandy]

Hey Sandy, do you subscribe to the 'hot summer = high snowfall in winter' theory ?

Just one page back :

Heh, heh.....
As you know, I look at all this stuff.....
Last season was big about 3 weeks early, but a cool summer.
Other summers, HOT:
2003-04 : early, good season, hot summer
2007-08 : v. early, good season, hot summer
2010-11 : late, good season, hot summer
2012-13 : v early, good season, hot summer
2013-14 : early good season, hot summer

However, there is some evidence on a small sample to say that a hot summer often has a good season afterwards...
And 80% were early.

No hot summers led to a poor season following, in the last 15 years.

 

[Sandy]

Yes long range, deterministic but I am interested in whats shaping up around 21st

...

In my experience, 21 days out is almost ALWAYS different to the actual result.

e.g. that's the 12z Nov 6th forecast, for 00z Wed 21st. If you look at the 18z Nov 6th forecast, for 06z Wed 21st, it's completely different.
The 00z & 12z, and the 06z & 18z forecasts seem to run with slightly different start parameters, and are often very different.
You start to get confident when the two converge.

 

[Jellybeans]

There's this low on EPS that appears at 13-15 days over Hokkaido. Could drag NW winds into Central Honshu at MSLP level as it leaves. Would favour Hokkaido though.

 

[squanchy]

In my experience, 21 days out is almost ALWAYS different to the actual result.

e.g. that's the 12z Nov 6th forecast, for 00z Wed 21st. If you look at the 18z Nov 6th forecast, for 06z Wed 21st, it's completely different.
The 00z & 12z, and the 06z & 18z forecasts seem to run with slightly different start parameters, and are often very different.
You start to get confident when the two converge.

agreed - all I am saying is that seeing these projections means we are seeing more winter like inputs to the models to get scenarios like this, so good progression

 

[Sandy]

agreed - all I am saying is that seeing these projections means we are seeing more winter like inputs to the models to get scenarios like this, so good progression

Yeah, I'm just wanting it to get colder. Here in Yokohama and Tokyo, it's been too warm, and it's annoying me!!!