Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

Status
Not open for further replies.

dcx3

Hard Yards
Nov 13, 2015
50
15
58
Osaka
And it will be about bloody time too....
Record warm October, and a warm November so far!!

Good to see I woke up this thread a little bit.

Yes it has been warm, I am still wearing t shirt and shorts to work. Night time temps are still too warm. It also looks like the 16th has fizzled out.
 

squanchy

Addicted
Jul 12, 2018
229
159
113
.
 

Attachments

  • upload_2018-11-8_17-10-52.png
    upload_2018-11-8_17-10-52.png
    234.8 KB · Views: 32
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

skichanger

A Local
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 2012
9,862
7,005
563
chaletmyoko.com
19th - 21st is looking nice
First snow at village level for Honshu?
I hope not. I still have outside stuff to do at Madarao and i get back on the 19th. Madarao village is higher than most. Chalet Madarao is just below the plateau the village is on as it is slopeside but it is still at 970 metres. mmm need to think about my footware though it is a very short walk from the road to the lodge.
 

bullet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 11, 2007
1,042
1,816
363
wollongong
When is the first snow usually in Central Honshu?
From memory Hokkaido should have some on the ground by now?
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
72,595
35,610
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
When is the first snow usually in Central Honshu?
From memory Hokkaido should have some on the ground by now?
Should do, but October has been warm.
Long range, looks like some snow will kick in later in the month.

Central Honshu generally has snow on the ground up higher (at mountains with Gondolas), by the first week or so in December. Snow down to 600m by around 2nd/3rd week, when the switch flicks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bullet

Lady Penelope

One of some lot ...
Ski Pass
Sep 7, 2014
7,262
23,468
563
Canberra
I noticed on FaceBook the usual seasonal outlook from Mountainwatch, this time of course for Japan for the coming season. “Below average” season for Honshu predicted. Hmm. I hope his forecasts are as accurate for Japan as they are for Australia (!), given we are visiting the Nagano region this season (early January) following the less than stellar 2016 snow fall. It would be nice to get some snow this time.

http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/2018-2019-japan-snow-outlook-the-grasshopper/
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
72,595
35,610
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
I noticed on FaceBook the usual seasonal outlook from Mountainwatch, this time of course for Japan for the coming season. “Below average” season for Honshu predicted. Hmm. I hope his forecasts are as accurate for Japan as they are for Australia (!), given we are visiting the Nagano region this season (early January) following the less than stellar 2016 snow fall. It would be nice to get some snow this time.

http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/2018-2019-japan-snow-outlook-the-grasshopper/

Like the difference between 11m & 10m.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dan72

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
8,976
6,211
563
Melbourne
I noticed on FaceBook the usual seasonal outlook from Mountainwatch, this time of course for Japan for the coming season. “Below average” season for Honshu predicted. Hmm. I hope his forecasts are as accurate for Japan as they are for Australia (!), given we are visiting the Nagano region this season (early January) following the less than stellar 2016 snow fall. It would be nice to get some snow this time.

http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/2018-2019-japan-snow-outlook-the-grasshopper/
I find MW's snow reports for Japan very rose tinted and pretty average. They are an OK indication for general conditions and some of the most popular resorts.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jellybeans

bullet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 11, 2007
1,042
1,816
363
wollongong
I noticed on FaceBook the usual seasonal outlook from Mountainwatch, this time of course for Japan for the coming season. “Below average” season for Honshu predicted. Hmm. I hope his forecasts are as accurate for Japan as they are for Australia (!), given we are visiting the Nagano region this season (early January) following the less than stellar 2016 snow fall. It would be nice to get some snow this time.

http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/2018-2019-japan-snow-outlook-the-grasshopper/
I wouldn't take much notice of MW.
IMO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dan72

Ramenman

A Local
Mar 3, 2014
6,044
8,007
563
The video was filmed this time last year at Minowa ski resort in Fukushima. It snowed a lot between November 19th and 25th, so all slopes got open in November. It was a good start season, it was not a very good season in the end, though. It's very likely to be a slow start season. I hope it'll snow enough by Christmas!
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
72,595
35,610
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
The video was filmed this time last year at Minowa ski resort in Fukushima. It snowed a lot between November 19th and 25th, so all slopes got open in November. It was a good start season, it was not a very good season in the end, though. It's very likely to be a slow start season this year. I hope it'll snow enough by Christmas!

Last season's start was very early. It's looking like the typical variation right now, but that can change very quickly when the "switch is flicked".
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ramenman

squanchy

Addicted
Jul 12, 2018
229
159
113
The video was filmed this time last year at Minowa ski resort in Fukushima. It snowed a lot between November 19th and 25th, so all slopes got open in November. It was a good start season, it was not a very good season in the end, though. It's very likely to be a slow start season. I hope it'll snow enough by Christmas!

IMO anything substantial in central Japan before mid December is a bonus

In fact big early starts make me nervous
 
  • Like
Reactions: Froff Life
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Stiffler

One of Us
Jan 15, 2016
422
398
163
Well I wouldn’t worry too much about inaccurate forecasting based upon corrupted / adjusted data when agencies who produce the predictive models mistakenly combine Celsius & Fahrenheit measurements to cook the books.....confirmation bias anyone??.......after 20 years in aviation my number one forecasting model is i stick my head out the office window on the day. It’s Japan it will snow, it will be awesome, and ain’t nothing we can do to change it. With the weather i make strategic plans at 3 days out and tactical plans the night before, thats about as accurate forecasting is, IMO of course.
 
  • Like
Reactions: skichanger

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
72,595
35,610
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
Well I wouldn’t worry too much about inaccurate forecasting based upon corrupted / adjusted data when agencies who produce the predictive models mistakenly combine Celsius & Fahrenheit measurements to cook the books.....confirmation bias anyone??.......after 20 years in aviation my number one forecasting model is i stick my head out the office window on the day. It’s Japan it will snow, it will be awesome, and ain’t nothing we can do to change it. With the weather i make strategic plans at 3 days out and tactical plans the night before, thats about as accurate forecasting is, IMO of course.
While I think that forecasting can be done more than 3 days out (around 7-8 for general strategic plans, and tactical plans 1-3 days out), I take absolutely NO notice of the JMA "seasonal" forecasts, that people often quote on here.... and other seasonal forecasts for that matter.
For starters, JMA do their xx% / yy% / zz% forecasts.
For example:
2018-11-17 forecast for 17Nov-16 Dec.png


Total disaster from 17th November until 16th December, right?
What it doesn't show, is that if 17th Nov until 30th Nov is quite a bit warmer than normal (and the shorter period will be more accurate), then it will bias the outlook for the entire period from 17th Nov until 16th Dec.
But then you look at the period 1st -14th Dec and you get a different picture:
2018-11-17 forecast for 1-14 Dec.png

Almost normal.

And there's one other major issue with the format.... 17th Nov - 16th Dec Hokuriku: 20% lower temperature, 30% average, 50% higher. but what does that mean? It means 50% chance of lower or average temps, and 50% of higher temps.


All it takes is one snow episode to totally nail the base in Japan early season, and all of a sudden it becomes an "early start", good season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Stiffler

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
13,766
23,771
813
Box Hill, VIC
The layout of the JMA seasonals is somewhat questionable, but I think it's good that they recognise that probabilistic forecasting is a good approach for LRFs.

I think Long Range Forecasts are actually worth people's time IMO. The science is constantly being pushed forward, with new factors coming into the fold every season. So many resources about, just need to apply it to Japan's climate.
 

squanchy

Addicted
Jul 12, 2018
229
159
113
We're looking on track for switch flick last week of November / first week of December IMO.

Seeing some good trends developing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Froff Life

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
72,595
35,610
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
Ok, so looks like the late autumn switch has finally flicked....
From tomorrow, days around 15-16 degrees, nights 8-10 degrees in Tokyo, and snow appearing in Hokkaido down to lower levels.

I will start the season thread soon.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DidSurfNowSki

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
8,976
6,211
563
Melbourne
Interesting stats from SnowJapan. Certainly a late start to this season.

The below is the date when 'on average' various areas of Hokkaido experience their first snowfall ('hatsuyuki')... and how the situation is shaping up this time round:

Wakkanai: 22nd October >> this year = 14th November
Asahikawa: 23rd October >> this year = 14th November
Abashiri: 31st October >> this year = 14th November
Sapporo: 28th October >> this year = not yet
Muroran: 1st November >> this year = not yet
Hakodate: 3rd November >> this year = not yet
Obihiro: 7th November >> this year = not yet
Kushiro: 10th November >> this year = not yet

And here is the latest date on record when the first snowfall was recorded in those areas:

Wakkanai:14th November 2018 (this year)
Asahikawa: 18th November 2012
Abashiri: 18th November 2012
Sapporo: 20th November 1890 (!)
Muroran: 23rd November 1975
Hakodate: on 27th November 1911
Obihiro: 24th November 1892
Kushiro: 9th December 1928

So basically if it doesn't snow in Sapporo before Tuesday, we'll be breaking that latest first snowfall record that has stood since 1890.
https://www.snowjapan.com/japan-daily-snow-weather-reports/Niseko-Now
 

Sbooker

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 28, 2015
3,949
6,291
363
Interesting stats from SnowJapan. Certainly a late start to this season.

The below is the date when 'on average' various areas of Hokkaido experience their first snowfall ('hatsuyuki')... and how the situation is shaping up this time round:

Wakkanai: 22nd October >> this year = 14th November
Asahikawa: 23rd October >> this year = 14th November
Abashiri: 31st October >> this year = 14th November
Sapporo: 28th October >> this year = not yet
Muroran: 1st November >> this year = not yet
Hakodate: 3rd November >> this year = not yet
Obihiro: 7th November >> this year = not yet
Kushiro: 10th November >> this year = not yet

And here is the latest date on record when the first snowfall was recorded in those areas:

Wakkanai:14th November 2018 (this year)
Asahikawa: 18th November 2012
Abashiri: 18th November 2012
Sapporo: 20th November 1890 (!)
Muroran: 23rd November 1975
Hakodate: on 27th November 1911
Obihiro: 24th November 1892
Kushiro: 9th December 1928

So basically if it doesn't snow in Sapporo before Tuesday, we'll be breaking that latest first snowfall record that has stood since 1890.
https://www.snowjapan.com/japan-daily-snow-weather-reports/Niseko-Now

That's really interesting.
Some of those 'first snow' dates of the late 1800's and early 1900's show that late snow this year is no big deal I suppose.
And it certainly gives plenty of confidence to those that want to book early for a trip in mid December. Sounds like a pretty certain thing that there will be at least some cover at that time.
 

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
8,976
6,211
563
Melbourne
That's really interesting.
Some of those 'first snow' dates of the late 1800's and early 1900's show that late snow this year is no big deal I suppose.
And it certainly gives plenty of confidence to those that want to book early for a trip in mid December. Sounds like a pretty certain thing that there will be at least some cover at that time.
Yeah really interesting hey. I don't think there there is much correlation between an early/late start and a good/bad season?

It will snow, and snow lots! Just will be a bit later this year. Anyone booking a mid-December ski trip for Japan will always run the risk of marginal conditions.
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
72,595
35,610
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
Interesting stats from SnowJapan. Certainly a late start to this season.

The below is the date when 'on average' various areas of Hokkaido experience their first snowfall ('hatsuyuki')... and how the situation is shaping up this time round:

Wakkanai: 22nd October >> this year = 14th November
Asahikawa: 23rd October >> this year = 14th November
Abashiri: 31st October >> this year = 14th November
Sapporo: 28th October >> this year = not yet
Muroran: 1st November >> this year = not yet
Hakodate: 3rd November >> this year = not yet
Obihiro: 7th November >> this year = not yet
Kushiro: 10th November >> this year = not yet

And here is the latest date on record when the first snowfall was recorded in those areas:

Wakkanai:14th November 2018 (this year)
Asahikawa: 18th November 2012
Abashiri: 18th November 2012
Sapporo: 20th November 1890 (!)
Muroran: 23rd November 1975
Hakodate: on 27th November 1911
Obihiro: 24th November 1892
Kushiro: 9th December 1928

So basically if it doesn't snow in Sapporo before Tuesday, we'll be breaking that latest first snowfall record that has stood since 1890.
https://www.snowjapan.com/japan-daily-snow-weather-reports/Niseko-Now
It doesn't surprise me. I've been complaining about the warm temperatures!!!
So far this year, March, April, July and October have been the warmest on record in Tokyo.

But notice that I'm not panicking at this stage?
 

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
8,976
6,211
563
Melbourne
It doesn't surprise me. I've been complaining about the warm temperatures!!!
So far this year, March, April, July and October have been the warmest on record in Tokyo.

But notice that I'm not panicking at this stage?
#StillNovember
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
72,595
35,610
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
It doesn't surprise me. I've been complaining about the warm temperatures!!!
So far this year, March, April, July and October have been the warmest on record in Tokyo.

But notice that I'm not panicking at this stage?
#StillNovember
To put it in context, Tokyo had the equal highest av max on record (23.0 degrees)
Currently, the highest av max November is 19.0 degrees, and Tokyo is currently sitting on that. But the last 10 days of Nov are always colder of course, so there's no way this Nov will be the highest on record.
Previous Novembers, from 2011:
2011: 18.3
2012: 16.3
2013: 17.4
2014: 17.4
2015: 17.8
2016: 15.5
2017: 16.6
2018: 19.0* up to 18th Nov.
 

Sandy

Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1998
72,595
35,610
1,515
Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
Interesting stats from SnowJapan. Certainly a late start to this season.

The below is the date when 'on average' various areas of Hokkaido experience their first snowfall ('hatsuyuki')... and how the situation is shaping up this time round:

Wakkanai: 22nd October >> this year = 14th November
Asahikawa: 23rd October >> this year = 14th November
Abashiri: 31st October >> this year = 14th November
Sapporo: 28th October >> this year = not yet
Muroran: 1st November >> this year = not yet
Hakodate: 3rd November >> this year = not yet
Obihiro: 7th November >> this year = not yet
Kushiro: 10th November >> this year = not yet

And here is the latest date on record when the first snowfall was recorded in those areas:

Wakkanai:14th November 2018 (this year)
Asahikawa: 18th November 2012
Abashiri: 18th November 2012
Sapporo: 20th November 1890 (!)
Muroran: 23rd November 1975
Hakodate: on 27th November 1911
Obihiro: 24th November 1892
Kushiro: 9th December 1928

So basically if it doesn't snow in Sapporo before Tuesday, we'll be breaking that latest first snowfall record that has stood since 1890.
https://www.snowjapan.com/japan-daily-snow-weather-reports/Niseko-Now
Snow forecast for Sapporo by JMA, for the next 6 days!!! ;)

And looks like an even money chance of snowing tonight (i.e. Today)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Froff Life
Status
Not open for further replies.
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass