Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2019-2020 Weather

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Sandy

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It's been a warmer than average September for many parts of Japan. In Tokyo, it was the 4th highest av max on record. (29.4C degrees) The highest were 2012, 1999 & 1975.
2012/2013 was a very early season.

Looks like another dusting this weekend on the higher peaks in Hokkaido.
Another dusting likely because the remnant of TC Mitag will drag the winds to a northerly on the western side of the low, by Sun/Mon.
Currently, it's warm because Mitag is dragging southerly winds in on the eastern flank.
 

Sbooker

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Hokkaido daily maximums getting down to 11 or 12 degrees Celsius in the next week or so. About normal for this time of year?
 
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Sandy

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Looks like a strong typhoon (Hagibis) will make a direct hit on Japan around Saturday.
Current GFS shows another direct hit on Tokyo, but that as always, subject to change.
2019-10-07 Forecast for 2019-10-13 06z.jpg
 

Sbooker

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You were saying 11-12 max, but that shows highs up to 19, and that's for a snow resort, not Hokkaido in general.
Anyway, it's still higher than normal.

Thanks. So that Niseko ‘forecast’ would be for on the mountain I guess? Maybe a better indicator would be to check out Sapporo temps.
 

Sandy

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Typhoon Hagibis is currently a Cat 5, with sustained winds to 260kph, and gusts to 315kph.
It's big and dangerous storm, although it would be much more dangerous if it was currently a lot further to the west (near Philippines or Taiwan)
However, it's looking like a direct hit on Tokyo on Saturday afternoon/evening. Hard to tell what category it will be by then.
I'll let you know how it goes!!! ;)
201910082130-00.png
 

Crispy013

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Typhoon Hagibis is currently a Cat 5, with sustained winds to 260kph, and gusts to 315kph.
It's big and dangerous storm, although it would be much more dangerous if it was currently a lot further to the west (near Philippines or Taiwan)
However, it's looking like a direct hit on Tokyo on Saturday afternoon/evening. Hard to tell what category it will be by then.
I'll let you know how it goes!!! ;)
201910082130-00.png
Looks like Tokyo in for a direct hit. Stay safe!
WOWlrda.png

tGnOHdZ.png

CEIbEmA.png
 

Gregah

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GFS still calling it a Tokyo direct hit for wind and a near miss for the heaviest precip.
 

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Sootyface

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Spur of the moment idea....Am thinking of going to Japan for a "white christmas". Is their any towns within easy reach of Tokyo that would guarantee to have snow for Christmas day? Not really into skiing towns. Thanks so much.
 

Sandy

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The first strands of the outer cloud bands now dropping rain here in Yokohama, even though the eye of the storm is still 1200km away!!!
201910101100-00.png
 

Sandy

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Spur of the moment idea....Am thinking of going to Japan for a "white christmas". Is their any towns within easy reach of Tokyo that would guarantee to have snow for Christmas day? Not really into skiing towns. Thanks so much.
Will be hard to find snow outside of a ski town. Unless it's an early winter...... since they originally located ski towns in places that have snow, y'know ;)
I'd head to Yuzawa.
 
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Sandy

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Incoming. Not too bad here in Yokohama, but it's still more than 24 hours before the main show.

They are now saying that it's the strongest typhoon to hit Tokyo since 1958.
201910110500-00.png
 
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Donza

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Spur of the moment idea....Am thinking of going to Japan for a "white christmas". Is their any towns within easy reach of Tokyo that would guarantee to have snow for Christmas day? Not really into skiing towns. Thanks so much.
Except they don't celebrate christmas (much) in Japan
Its on par with Valentines day IMO
 

Froff Life

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People (mostly Italians) are up in arms about the cancellation of the Rugby World Cup matches, but I think it's completely warranted. Safety is, and should be, the number 1 priority!
 

Ramenman

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They are now saying that it's the strongest typhoon to hit Tokyo since 1958.
Local media were reporting the 1958's typhoon killed more than 1200 Japanese people. The 1958's typhoon flooded Tsurumi River. Yokohama International Stadium(The stadium of Japan v Scotland on 13th) is only 200m - 300m away from the river(Tsurumi River). This is the 1958's typhoon : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Ida_(1958)

Red = The stadium. Green Line = the river(Tsurumi River).
img_area_map05.jpg





Tsurumi River : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsurumi_River


 

Sandy

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Typhoon Hagibis now Cat 3, with sustained winds of 195kph, gusts to 240kph, but continues to weaken.

The centre of the storm is still about 12 hours away from Tokyo, with a direct hit still forecast.
Rain totals are not extreme at the moment, but not small totals either.

Midnight to 8am, 12th October:

Here in Yokohama, the pressure is 1003.1hPa and dropping. Winds are not strong, 22kph, gusting to 46kph.
Rain totals: exactly 100mm since midnight, with 66.5mm in the last 3 hours.

In the hilly reaches of western Tokyo, Ozawa has had 144.5mm since midnight, with 95mm in the last 2 hours.

Out west towards Shizuoka (on the Izu peninsula) Amagisan has had 212mm of rain since midnight.
sfc3_2019101121.png
 

Sandy

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Update.
Typhoon Hagibis Cat 3, continues to weaken, with sustained winds of 167kph, gusts to 204kph.

The centre of the storm is still about 6-8 hours away from Tokyo, with a direct hit still forecast.
Rain totals are getting larger all the time.

Midnight to 2pm, 12th October:

Here in Yokohama, the pressure is 989.5 hPa and dropping. Winds are not strong, 28kph, gusting to 57kph.
Rain totals: 131mm since midnight.

Other areas, rainfall midnight - 2pm, 12th October:
- Tokyo: 121mm
- Ozawa (western area of Tokyo): 337.5mm
- Shizuoka (Last night's Rugby): 257.5mm
- Amagisan (Izu pennisular): 416.5mm
- Hakone: 596.5mm (including 151mm in the last 2 hours)

Infrastructure, Tokyo area including Yokohama:
- All Flights cancelled
- All Shinkansen (Bullet Train) cancelled
- All trains & subways cancelled after midday

1.8 Million residents (across Japan), asked to evacuate homes.

sfc3_2019101203.png
 

Bien E

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Currently in Nippori, Tokyo.

Heavy rain but not too windy right now.

Can I expect things to go crazy at around 9pm?
 

Sandy

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Currently in Nippori, Tokyo.

Heavy rain but not too windy right now.

Can I expect things to go crazy at around 9pm?
Yes!!! :D ;)

Rain is not so heavy in Tokyo!!! 16mm & 24mm in the last two hours. Hakone (about 80km SW of Tokyo) had 78.5mm in one hour!!!
Maximum wind gust in Tokyo so far today 61kph. I'd expect that to be 2x - 3x that later (mid evening)
 
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Ramenman

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Local media were reporting the 1958's typhoon killed more than 1200 Japanese people. The 1958's typhoon flooded Tsurumi River. Yokohama International Stadium(The stadium of Japan v Scotland on 13th) is only 200m - 300m away from the river(Tsurumi River). This is the 1958's typhoon : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Ida_(1958)

Red = The stadium. Green Line = the river(Tsurumi River).
img_area_map05.jpg





Tsurumi River : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsurumi_River




Flood warnings / alerts already have been issued to some rivers, including Tsurumi River. 現在水位6.55m below means the current water level (of Tsurumi River near the rugby world cup stadium in Yokohama) is 6.55m, which was less than 2.0m this morning. Red = very serious flood warning is set 6.80m, only 25cm to go. I wonder how it can affect Japan v Scotland tomorrow.
EGqUQXNU0AI3Al5
 

Sandy

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Flood warnings / alerts already have been issued to some rivers, including Tsurumi River. 現在水位6.55m below means the current water level (of Tsurumi River near the rugby world cup stadium in Yokohama) is 6.55m, which was less than 2.0m this morning. Red = very serious flood warning is set 6.80m, only 25cm to go. I wonder how it can affect Japan v Scotland tomorrow.
EGqUQXNU0AI3Al5

That is looking bad. Looks like the levy top is at 6.80m
If it goes over the top, International Stadium Yokohama could be flooded (for the Japan vs Scotland game).

Another issue... while the Shinkansen runs not far from there, the local JR Yokohama Line, and the Yokohama Metro Subway could be flooded. This would make it very difficult to get to the stadium.
 
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Ramenman

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It seems Shin-Yokohama Park was designed as a detention basin / retarding basin to avoid Tsurumi River flooding badly. International Stadium Yokohama(the rugby world cup stadium) is in the park and the parking area of the stadium, tennis courts etc in the park are the detention basin and they are already under the water now.
data=wAeBD8aSgClAaOWxSL1-1pKsKs3xTIlRQlCJYdhpVRR8WKIwy_68wFtRt0JiQ4u2kjKRRa5uUxvpbQE4z6QahK7q5j4zTjYdldDQIL6JF6E


This is when the park / stadium worked as a detention basin / retarding basin in 2014.
BzP2co7CcAACAVP.jpg:small
 

Donza

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If it floods, it could put that stadium out of action for a bit

Mind you. This is Japan
 

Sandy

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And an earthquake, Magnitude 5.7, about 100km, SE of Yokohama. I've often observed that a quake will happen not long before or after a typhoon!!!
 

Sandy

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Landfall appear to have been Omaezaki:
4pm: 967.9 hPa
5pm: 959.3 hPa <<<
6pm: 964.3 hPa

It's now moved to Irozaki:
4pm: 972.2 hPa
5pm: 965.1 hPa
6pm: 955.8 hPa <<<
 
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Bien E

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And an earthquake, Magnitude 5.7, about 100km, SE of Yokohama. I've often observed that a quake will happen not long before or after a typhoon!!!
Felt it!! Was crazy thinking, a typhoon and an earthquake?!
 

Ramenman

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If it floods, it could put that stadium out of action for a bit

Mind you. This is Japan

It seems the water level at the parking area of the stadium is already 4.34m(as of 6:35pm). I think the game will be held tomorrow but without spectators . The park is designed as a detention basin, so I assume the stadium is not damaged and I think they can hold the game(Japan v Scotland) tomorrow, but if the water level is that high, the game is likely to be held without spectators.
EGq0Bm8VUAIf-Ue
 

Sandy

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Here's my estimation of the path, based on pressure in different locations. Either side of the lowest pressure (in the 950s), the pressures are in the 960s and 970s.
Typhoon path 3 arrow.jpg
 

Ramenman

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Local media are reporting Hakone's 24 hour precipitation is 929.5mm, and it's the third biggest record of JMA(The biggest is 979mm of a JMA's weather station in Kouchi Pref and the second is 934mm of a JMA's weather station in Miyazaki Pref).
 

Sandy

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Wow! That’s about 2 feet in the old scale...serious amount of rain
Local media are reporting Hakone's 24 hour precipitation is 929.5mm, and it's the third biggest record of JMA(The biggest is 979mm of a JMA's weather station in Kouchi Pref and the second is 934mm of a JMA's weather station in Miyazaki Pref).
Yes, Hakone has had 918.5mm since midnight. (that's 36.2" or just over 3 feet!!!)
It will stop raining there soon though....
Shizuoka is starting to dry up. Shizuoka City has had 401mm today, but only 1mm in the last hour.
 
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