Japan The coming Japanese snow season 2019-2020 Weather

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ojisan

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It seems Nakayama Toge ski resort(near Sapporo, Hokkaido) has opened. A lot of ski resorts in Hokkaido are planning to open this weekend. Edit: This video was filmed yesterday. It's close to Sapporo and the other ski resorts nearby haven't opened yet, so it was crowded.

I read about that resort... it has one double chair and is only open until mid december this year.
It then re-opens for spring skiing next april
 

Sbooker

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While we've got the crystal ball out can one of the weather gurus give me a rough 10 day forecast for Hokkaido please? Warm and wet? Cold and dry? I'm hoping for a system to roll through before mid December.
 
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Jellybeans

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While we've got the crystal ball out can one of the weather gurus give me a rough 10 day forecast for Hokkaido please? Warm and wet? Cold and dry? I'm hoping for a system
to roll through before mid December.
Snow today and easing tomorrow
Sunday perhaps initial rain, heavy snow in the evening, into Monday
Light snow Tuesday and Wednesday
Maybe something Friday/Saturday week.
 

telenomore

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While we've got the crystal ball out can one of the weather gurus give me a rough 10 day forecast for Hokkaido please? Warm and wet? Cold and dry? I'm hoping for a system to roll through before mid December.
Not sure where you are heading to in Hokkaido @Sbooker but the snow is already on the ground here in Furano. We had another 20-30 overnight and Furano resort opens this Sunday top to bottom! Which is unusual. It always open the last week of November but often just the top lifts are skiable. Autumn will continue to have temp fluctuations, as per this coming weekend, but the base is already well and truly there in most places and most resorts will, at least partially, open this weekend. Ill try and post some pics in the next few days as it looks like mid winter at street level here in Furano at the moment.

Edit: The Furano opening is the Furano gondola side only, but still unusual to have that top to bottom for the opening. A very good start to the season.
 

Sbooker

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I'll be around Niseko/Otaru for the week or so between the 15th and 23rd of December.
I'm setting my expectation at being able to ski some groomers. Anything more will be a nice bonus.
 

LMB

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I'll be around Niseko/Otaru for the week or so between the 15th and 23rd of December.
I'm setting my expectation at being able to ski some groomers. Anything more will be a nice bonus.
@Any ?
I know you’re busy skiing.
Can you weigh in to alleviate Sbookers concerns ;)
 

Sandy

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While we've got the crystal ball out can one of the weather gurus give me a rough 10 day forecast for Hokkaido please? Warm and wet? Cold and dry? I'm hoping for a system to roll through before mid December.

I'll be around Niseko/Otaru for the week or so between the 15th and 23rd of December.
I'm setting my expectation at being able to ski some groomers. Anything more will be a nice bonus.
It's the 20th November. It's 3.5 weeks until you arrive there. I'd be very surprised if there's not 250cm on the ground by then.....
 

Froff Life

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I'll be around Niseko/Otaru for the week or so between the 15th and 23rd of December.
I'm setting my expectation at being able to ski some groomers. Anything more will be a nice bonus.
Kiroro usually have very decent cover by that point, 30-40 min from Otaru
 

Donza

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I'll be around Niseko/Otaru for the week or so between the 15th and 23rd of December.
I'm setting my expectation at being able to ski some groomers. Anything more will be a nice bonus.
I know this is your first trip to Japan.... the snow forecasting there. Its just different to Europe/ North America/NZ etc etc.
Its very unique.
Hokkaido especially.
We don't look for big systems like you would elsewhere. We just look at temps, fetch and the size of the high pressure over siberia.
 
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Any

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I'll be around Niseko/Otaru for the week or so between the 15th and 23rd of December.
I'm setting my expectation at being able to ski some groomers. Anything more will be a nice bonus.
@Any ?
I know you’re busy skiing.
Can you weigh in to alleviate Sbookers concerns ;)
dec 15 is easy. can 90% guarantee most groomers from about 1000m to the base in at least hirafu, hanazono and annupuri will be open.
thats the top of king 3 hooded quad if you look at a trail map.

niseko village is a wildcard weather they open stuff or not.

off piste on the sides of runs will be ski-able with a few sasa grass shots to the face and the odd suddenly-my-skis-are-stopped superman style crashes. but probably not actual off piste or gated areas until the end of your trip.
 
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Donza

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Looking at the charts. Over the next 16 days , Niseko will experience snow 75% of that time.
How much will fall?
who knows
 

Sbooker

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I know this is your first trip to Japan.... the snow forecasting there. Its just different to Europe/ North America/NZ etc etc.
Its very unique.
Hokkaido especially.
We don't look for big systems like you would elsewhere. We just look at temps, fetch and the size of the high pressure over siberia.

I'll be keenly observing. That is very interesting about what you say regarding the lack of big systems.
Sandy's comments of "at least 250cm on the ground" is very surprising. I can't read weather models but I don't know where that's coming from.
 

Donza

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I'll be around Niseko/Otaru for the week or so between the 15th and 23rd of December.
I'm setting my expectation at being able to ski some groomers. Anything more will be a nice bonus.
This is Rusutsu 30mins ago
76964116_2890102177696376_3319697295296954368_o.jpg
 

Ramenman

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Yuda's snowdepth became 23cm from 0cm today. Yuda's weather station is only at 250m asl. It's close to Geto Kogen and the base altitude of Geto Kogen is 650m, so I think it has snowed a lot there too.
 

Crispy013

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I'll be keenly observing. That is very interesting about what you say regarding the lack of big systems.
Sandy's comments of "at least 250cm on the ground" is very surprising. I can't read weather models but I don't know where that's coming from.
Wind. “Lake Effect”. Pure and simple. Don’t really need low pressure systems like Europe or Canada/US.
 

LMB

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I'll be keenly observing. That is very interesting about what you say regarding the lack of big systems.
Sandy's comments of "at least 250cm on the ground" is very surprising. I can't read weather models but I don't know where that's coming from.
It’s often calm and warm and suddenly palm sized fat flakes start falling from the sky. Sometimes that comes with a storm, but when it does it will often have prefrontal rain and the wind will shut lifts. I prefer the calm big fat flakes.
 
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Sandy

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I'll be keenly observing. That is very interesting about what you say regarding the lack of big systems.
Sandy's comments of "at least 250cm on the ground" is very surprising. I can't read weather models but I don't know where that's coming from.
Read this:
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-tutorial-for-japan.63512/

Do you know Buffalo, NY, in the US? It's on the southeast side of the Great Lakes, and it regularly gets "lake effect" snow, just because the cold winds blow from the N or NW, and suck up moisture from the lakes, which then falls as snow in Buffalo.

Same thing happens in Japan, but multiply that effect by 5 in Hokkaido, and maybe 10 in central Japan.
 

Crispy013

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Read this:
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-tutorial-for-japan.63512/

Do you know Buffalo, NY, in the US? It's on the southeast side of the Great Lakes, and it regularly gets "lake effect" snow, just because the cold winds blow from the N or NW, and suck up moisture from the lakes, which then falls as snow in Buffalo.

Same thing happens in Japan, but multiply that effect by 5 in Hokkaido, and maybe 10 in central Japan.
What about Tohoku? ;)
 
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Sbooker

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Read this:
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-tutorial-for-japan.63512/

Do you know Buffalo, NY, in the US? It's on the southeast side of the Great Lakes, and it regularly gets "lake effect" snow, just because the cold winds blow from the N or NW, and suck up moisture from the lakes, which then falls as snow in Buffalo.

Same thing happens in Japan, but multiply that effect by 5 in Hokkaido, and maybe 10 in central Japan.

I wasn’t doubting you at all - just curious. That link is very helpful.
So when looking at the weather forecasting models do they include this ‘lake effect’ snow in their predictions or just the regular snow from low pressure systems? For example Niseko/Kiroro etc is showing not much coming for the next week or so but if the wind direction is from the right way there could be measurable snow on top of that?
 

Sandy

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I wasn’t doubting you at all - just curious. That link is very helpful.
So when looking at the weather forecasting models do they include this ‘lake effect’ snow in their predictions or just the regular snow from low pressure systems? For example Niseko/Kiroro etc is showing not much coming for the next week or so but if the wind direction is from the right way there could be measurable snow on top of that?
The models don't do so well.
Low pressure systems are actually BAD NEWS in Japan. They bring rain and warm temperatures on the eastern flank, and the snow is not as dry.
And they disrupt the lake effect. You have to understand, a season with just fresh NNW or N winds, without ANY low pressure systems, are the best seasons.
 

Sandy

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For example Niseko/Kiroro etc is showing not much coming for the next week or so but if the wind direction is from the right way there could be measurable snow on top of that?
Yes it can.
Lake/sea effect is the main source of snow in central Japan.
For example, on a slight to moderate WNW wind, while central Hakuba (Happo) might get 10cm overnight, go near the sea to the coastal ski hills, and you can get 40-50cm.... or more.
 

Donza

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Perfect offshore conditions from north of Vladivostok are pushing a steady stream of snow showers into Niseko and surrounds.
Here.
201911202030-00.png
 
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Richard

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Donza

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so I been thinking about this overnight.

There’s always a way, I just can’t see one thats not a massive custom hack

The issues is it’s not intended as a native embed like a YouTube vid.

I could place in a notice but the narrowest I could target is the whole Japan forum.

I’ll keep stewing on it.
If there's a better Cam in Japan. I'll eat my novelty Totoro hat from harajuku
 

Any

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@Richard

Is there any way to embed this live camera on a thread?
https://hanazononiseko.com/en/winter/resort/live-camera
so I been thinking about this overnight.

There’s always a way, I just can’t see one thats not a massive custom hack

The issue is it’s not intended as a native embed like a YouTube vid.

I could place in a notice but the narrowest I could target is the whole Japan forum.

I’ll keep stewing on it.
i dont know what the forum allows. maybe ill try breaking it a bit too ;P

edit:
testing1234
x.gif

its a gif, generated on one of my servers. updated every 5 minutes.
ps, the way the webcam stream works is real shit!
 
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