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The coming (not so close) Japanese snow season 2019-2020 Weather

Discussion in 'General & World' started by Sandy, Jun 1, 2019.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's way early, and sort of the first day of summer in Japan (1st June). So why such an early "coming snow season" thread?

    Earlier in the week, a heatwave ended, after about a week of 30C+ temperatures around Tokyo.
    It was unusual because it was still May, still spring. But last Sunday, 513 of JMA's 926 weather stations recorded temperatures > 30C degrees, and 53 recorded > 35C.

    Strangely, the hottest place was Hokkaido, where May mean max temperatures are around 17C degrees.
    In the town of Saroma, on Hokkaido's far NE coast, the temperature got up to 39.5C degrees. It was the hottest temperature ever recorded in Hokkaido, and the hottest May temperature ever recorded anywhere in Japan, in May.
    I'm still not sure why this particular location was so hot. There was a WSW wind blowing off the hot Asian mainland, but there was 500km of the Sea of Japan, to moderate those hot winds. There was high pressure the preceding days, but there seemingly should not be enough heat so early in the year.
    The temperatures have dropped back since then. Saroma's max yesterday was 24.6C
     
  2. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow - that’s an extreme outlier temp!
    Hope it’s not “just the beginning”
     
  3. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We had the July heatwave last year, with record hot March, April and July.
    Hopefully, the heat is early like last year, but with an early winter season!!
     
  4. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    I find it absolutely amazing that a place that get's so much snow in winter, gets equally extreme heat in the summer.
     
  5. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Fingers crossed for a bumper December this year. On slopes 26th Dec.
     
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So far the Japanese summer has cooler than usual. Rainy season is much more persistent than last year.
     
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ... and it's been raining a lot in southern Japan.

    Since last Friday, seasonal stationary boundary (rainy season) rain front has dumped 1,089.5 mm in Ebino in Miyazaki Prefecture, 901 mm in Kanoya, Kagoshima Prefecture, and 611.5 mm in Yunomae, Kumamoto Prefecture.

    In the city of Soo, rescuers found a missing woman in her 80s buried in a house that was engulfed by a landslide. She was later confirmed dead at the scene, bringing the total number of deaths from the heavy rain to two. The city saw a record 421 millimeters of rain on Wednesday — the highest since data was first recorded in 1977.

    At its peak, evacuation orders were issued for about 1.1 million people in Kagoshima and Miyazaki Prefectures around 4 a.m. Thursday.

    All evacuation orders and advisories in Miyazaki Prefecture were lifted by 11 a.m. yesterday, according to the prefectural government. However, the Kagoshima Prefectural Government urged residents to keep exercising caution Thursday afternoon, citing fear of landslides.
     
  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can see where the "rainy season" is located on this map, where the green line is located.

    [​IMG]

    Every year in June/July, this stationary boundary moves across Japan, bringing rain. It's starts off near the Philippines in around April and slowly moves north.
    To the north of the boundary, the air is cooler and drier, south of the boundary, it's warmer and more humid. The collision of warm and cool air causes the rain along either side of the boundary.

    [​IMG]
    This is usually (and has been this year) responsible for the heavy rain in China.

    Once it hits the temperate zone in north Honshu, it dissipates, due to the cooler air and the prevalence of northern low pressure.
    Once the boundary moves north, central & southern Japan moves into the normal summer heat and humidity (day time low to mid 30s C. It usually takes 2-3 weeks.

    It also makes a brief return appearance in September, for about one week, which ushers in the cooler temperatures, in the slide back into the winter season!! :)

    The summer weather in Japan is also very much driven by the Kuroshio Current (pushing in from near the Philippines), which sits at around 26C degrees in summer, moving close to the Pacific coast, extending about half way between Tokyo & Hokkaido. The Tsushima current in the Sea of Japan pushes north, warming to a much lesser extent. The Kuroshio Current comes a lot closer to the coast during the summer.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Ecstatic

    Ecstatic Hard Yards

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    Following this thread with interest, hoping to head back to Hokkaido next season. Previously I've done early season in Hokkaido (2 weeks leaving Aus on boxing day) but I think I'm going to try the last two weeks of Feb this time, hopefully it's not like this year where winter packed up and took off by the 17th of Feb.
     
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  10. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kyushu is a lovely island but the residents must dread summer. If it's not being pounded by typhoons it's severe flooding.
     
  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, after the start of the rainy season, it's backed off a bit. I HASN'T passed to the north, but has moved back south after a low pressure trough moved through. So this means that the stationary boundary sits to the south of Japan.
    [​IMG]
    It means that we should get a second bout of rainy season before it moves away to the north.
    It also means that the cool air still sits over Japan.

    The first 9 days of July are normally warm (mean max for the last 20 years 30.5 degrees fro July, and about 27.7 for this time of July), but currently mean max sitting on 25.8
     
  12. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Is this indicating that the 2019 season changes are currently BEHIND historical expectations? i.e. slower start to the upcoming snow season? Or is it too hard to make a call this far out.
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Too hard.
    We had an unprecedented heatwave in May... I thought it was going to start off June and summer as a terribly hot one.... hasn't been the case so far. Once the stationary boundary moves north, the heat behind it will kick in.
    However, that said, the overall heat over Japan has started late, so the summer heat MAY be shorter if early autumn kicks in at the normal time in September.

    One other point. I had observed that any August with a Tokyo av max of less than 31C would end up a late and relatively poor follow up snow season. However, 2017 August was 30.4 in Tokyo, but the following season was EARLY and great up until about mid/late Feb 2018.

    Last year we had record warm March, April and June. The overall season season afterwards was not early, and warm over Feb/March. I think this might be more significant in the scheme of things.
     
  14. Ecstatic

    Ecstatic Hard Yards

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    How far out do the models point towards an El Nino / La Nina year? Any other long range climate drivers you can look at this early?
     
  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only a STRONG El Nino seems to have a big impact. (negative)
    The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) outlook is neutral, so no pointers there.
     
  16. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us

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    La Niña a good thing for Japan snow?
     
  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Often slightly better, but in any given place, it might be the difference between 11m and 11.5m snowfall.
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So the mean max for Tokyo for the first half of July (up to 15th) is 24.5C. Mean max for the first half of July should be around 28 degrees.
    This year, the mean max for May was 25.3C and 25.8C for June..... it's been downright pleasant here so far!!!!
    Looks like the rainy season will finish up around Sunday, and the summer will finally kick in!!!
    [​IMG]

    The start of a series of typhoons will probably blast the stationary boundary away.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us

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    Cucumber crisis after Tokyo hit by cloudiest spell since records began
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...yo-hit-by-cloudiest-spell-since-records-began

    A cucumber was 100 Yen near our house this week. It's usually less than 40 Yen in summer. Crazy, and many other vegetables are expensive now since it's been cloudy / rainy everyday since late June. I don't mind the prices, though because we grow vegetables by ourselves;)

    Clouds blot out Tokyo’s sunlight for record 20th straight day
    http://www.the-japan-news.com/news/article/0005877816


    Lack of sunshine cools sales of summer products in Japan
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ols-sales-summer-products-japan/#.XTDlgOj7TIU


     
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  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Regular service will be resumed shortly..... ;)
    Rainy season stationary boundary has almost passed to the north:
    [​IMG]

    It was 30.5C degrees in Yokohama yesterday, with a low of 23.8, much more like normal.
     
  21. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it gonna be hot still in late October early November?
     
  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely not!!
     
  23. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thank God!!
    I’m assuming mid August in Hokkaido will also be bearable.

    We will be around for RWC.
    Be good to catch up at some stage.
     
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  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    TS Danas has dropped quite bit of rain on Kyushu.
    >300mm in 24 hours in some places.
    One place (Tosu) has had 187mm in the last 5 hours (80.5 mm in one hour)
    [​IMG]
     
  25. skifree

    skifree Sort of old & definitely grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    How are melons coming along?
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sometimes easy to handle, sometimes not.....
    Should be hotter and sunnier by Wednesday
     
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  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Incoming:
    Tropical Storm Nari
    [​IMG]
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tokyo has had the coolest July since 2007 (Mean max 27.5C. Last year, it was 32.7C). The last week was hot, so before that, it was looking like the coolest July for more than 20 years.
    One day into August, mean max for Tokyo: 35.0C ;)
    ...and humid of course!!
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    TS Fransisco:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    161mm of rain in 5 hours in Miyazaki Prefecture.
     
  31. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's been a hot August so far.
    Tokyo up to 13th Aug:
    Mean max: 34.9 degrees
    Mean max: 26.1 degrees

    Incoming TS Krosa:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]