Mega Thread The Great Summer Hotplate

Discussion in 'Weather' started by nfip, Dec 1, 2018.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Agreed.
    10,000 Santa pub crawlers....
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Drinkin' piss for charity brings it's own instability...
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Dies in the bum by the time it gets to Melbourne.
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Saturday afternoon looks better

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    GEFS control and EC likes early Sunday.
     
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  6. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    This happened in the Atherton/Tolga area this afternoon. Language warning.
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Excitable lad.
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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  9. Ubiquitous Steve

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    Remain calm.....those of the far north may have only everted eyes from reading the paper for a brief second or two as the working dogs sat under the chairs!The youth of today do get a bit worked up regarding weather and climate change phenomena!
     
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  10. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    The poster is back from the dead as well!
     
  11. Ubiquitous Steve

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    Prediction map looks at odds to BOM forecasts for NE Vicco...
    Wangaratta is slated for .....30% chance of rain on sat and Sunday.Amount is 0 to 0.2mm and 0 to 0.4mm.respectively.
    Temps 37deg C.saturday and 34deg C.sunday??

    Team Bears operations are based around the reliability of this forecast!
     
  12. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow
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    It was on again in Atherton today.
     
  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    5mm in the can.
    somewhat unexpected from this punter. and the forecasts.
    Trough seen here tho.
    [​IMG]
    Loaded with moisture and low level inversion may be the real culprit ? Donz , Pow ?
    throw a mild dose of wind shear into the mix. just enough to trigger the instability Kletterer ?
    no rumbling or haevy shower activity just steady light misty precip, nothing on the radar
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Nice one. Lucky left mover cloud burst by the look of it.
    You're in behind Narrewalle, right?
    Ulla picked up a few mil in the onshore flow overnight, despite the offshore switch in the last hour. BoM's forecast suggested they didn't see it coming, but to their defense it's pretty mesoscale stuff.
     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    yeah I figured is a very localised event.
    moisture pushed in off the water is typical in the S & SE which we had yesterday.
    interesting , despite it ****ing with the works this morning. hence I'm here in the Office... multi-tasking ;)

    edit. was on the gfs chart fwiw.
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    Friday in Melbourne now forecast to reach 38, our first truly hot day this season. Wish it could have waited until January .
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Some very obvious divergence amongst the models after this weekend.
    MJO entering back through our region in the next 5-7 days.
    GFS likes a lot of inland troughing & instability. Whilst EC goes for some tropical & upper level anoms by the back end of next week.

    Some questionable long/medium range accuracy with the advent of DEC's MJO pass. At least for us in Aus IMO.
    All the same I think next Tuesday-Friday is worth watching in the prospect of severe weather along Sydney & Central Coastal NSW region IMO.

    GFS


    EC
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Early Days

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    First official "pants off Friday" of summer...
     
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  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Another thing to consider is the addition of westerly momentum into the Southern Hemisphere circulation, both in the tropics, with the MJO pass Pow suggests, and via means of Mountain Torque through the Andes. It will take a while to circulate around to us, but could bring some "weather" to the region, depending on the connection with the tropics, or it could just be flat.
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  21. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker
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    10.5C, mizzle and a fleece jkt tonight, noice.
     
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  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    "Spencer's Slide" ... last drift left on measuring ridge slope.

     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Interesting to see it pulse daily; East to West across the top end.

    ...And how about those 2m anoms over the Southern Ocean in the Bight, off Ceduna/Kangaroo Is!
    +8-10C over the ocean.
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Just had a brief 5min shower here in Bondi this morning at 5:30am, also. Was progged as 0.2mm by GFS and EC, however BoM last night had only “slight chance in Sydney’s West with zero chance elsewhere”.

    This morning the forecast now reads 30% chance and possible shower for Sydney this morning.
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I have found the gfs modelling as put up in BSCH to be pretty reliable.
    especially short range. for few years now that I have been onto the site.
    it's the longer range that gets a bit loose as we are aware.
    coastal Syd may also be benefitting from the moisture fetching in off a reasonably warm sst and + anoms as we did down this way yesterday.

    edit an Inversion is plotted at < 800hpa on Sounding
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Oh yeah! It’s very reliable in the short range! You just don’t get the res that you can pick up on in EC & AXS.
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    when I'm needing to make a call on likely " rain" it's my first go-to.
    then look at OCF and AXS.
    EC and AXS if looking from a bit further out.
     
  28. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Early Days

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    Talking about a bit further out, liking EC for central/east VIC late next week.[​IMG]
     
  29. Ubiquitous Steve

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    No...good for painting weatherboards in the high altitude areas!:whistle:
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Going for it's highest ever Max of 46C today, Wyndham WA is sitting on 43.5C at 11:30am Local (half an hour ago).
     
  31. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    @nfip I'm admiring your work in truly understanding the weather maps and Skew-T's. Keep up the good work - it's not going unnoticed.
     
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  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    cheers mate. :thumbs:
    definately a work in progress.
    It's a good distraction from my day to day, beats the shit out of watching the teev.
    Need the basics for the work biz, add in surfing and of course the essential dry white stuff we like to play in.
    The skew T's are a ball tearer of their own.
    One thing to know what all the lines and plots indicate but putting it all together is the challenge.
    next will be understanding wot the **** @Kletterer is seeing when he peruses the upper levels ;)
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 00z has aligned with EC's yesterday's 00z run. Going for a cold pool cut off low through the Sou-East.
    Looks threatening.
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    It gets more perplexing up there i assure you. This satellite pic of Vortice shedding might interest you.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    13th ?
     
  36. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah had an eye on this as kids are away on school camp at J Bay for the week :eek:
    Not getting any better as it gets closer.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    GFS Cold advection plots. 925 to 850hPa plots are showing reasonable fluidity imo = low level convection. Can see the magnitude on the approach on this plot.
     
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  38. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I went to look again at that paper you sent thru to me a while back and the link was taken down.
    Here... book14vorticity.pdf
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    atmo.tamu.edu
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Orographic influences at play there in a von karman street, as opposed to baroclinic and coriolis effects in system but similar fluid dynamic.
    Great image.
     
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  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Yeah impressive to see at such a large scale resulting from those peaks.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  43. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    Oppressive evening in Melbourne. 33c at 8:30pm in the city, I pity anyone without aircon tonight
     
  44. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    Well, Melbourne briefly dropped to 26.1 at midnight and has been rising steadily since. 28c currently
     
  45. GS

    GS A Local
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    Set up the mozzie net and slept outside. Was great until wind picked up around 1 ish.
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Certainly warm this morning. Only marginal relief tonight.
     
  47. IAB

    IAB A Local
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    Good thing about Melbourne is that you know a 15C night is never too far away. In Sydney we probably won't see 15C until April. Bring on winter!
     
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  48. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    Lucky! This is when apartment living has its negative aspects (for me anyway). When we have a run of hot days it heats up and stays that way then each morning I get direct sun from sunrise till about 9 which isn't bad really, but when one side of your place is basically a wall of windows it does mean it's warmer inside than out. Ironically in Winter when I would prefer the sunlight I get none!

    Strong winds this morning too, hayfever has kicked in and hope no monsters decide they need to be firebugs today
     
  49. Ubiquitous Steve

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    Yep...winds stronger as Team Bears sped over the WestGate Bridge..

    Looks like it will be a challenging day for firefighters...
    Caroline Springs ..windy and warm...temps climbing quickly.
    Team Bears have Rodeos cooling system under control after installation of new water pump..and a tighten up of alternator belt...

    A good day for throwing some water bottles into the vehicle!
     
  50. Ubiquitous Steve

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    Three regions of state have TFB’s