Mega Thread The Great Summer Hotplate

Discussion in 'Weather' started by nfip, Dec 1, 2018.

  1. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Hmm.
    Looks a bit biblical for the otways.
    Faaark. I'm pushing sh!t uphill as it is this last 2 weeks.
     
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  2. glug1

    glug1 Hard Yards

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    Plenty of thunder, lightning and showers from late morning for me yesterday in Bendigo. The short showers became much heavier as the day went on with the last sound & light show and heavy rain about 1:30am. A very dry year so 26mm in my rain gauge was welcome.
     
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  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    lets hope this delivers.
    tho I'm thinking it's more likely Thursday Friday.
    AXS , EC and GFS pretty much in agreement for this ^
    either way not looking good for the campers later in the week.
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Ubiquitous Steve

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    Gisborne cool overcast...with blue sky around
     
  5. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Real potential later this week in much of Vic. There could be some spectacular rain totals if it all comes together. Quite a lot of agreement with each of the forecast models, although complex Lows do have a high degree of uncertainty IMO.

    P.S I'm still recovering from yesterday's storms which dumped 20mm on us...
     
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  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Incoming....
    plenty of noise out the back here just now....
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    [​IMG]

    00z GFS now getting southern NSW into the firing line as well.
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    aye.
    Looks mint on the enhanced WZ radar
    its on the southerly no?
     
  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Sthly correcto , not much of it but enough to steer it behind us.
    my thoughts are with the kids at Greenpatch hope they have the same luck.
    it has it's own meso climate in their tho , remember I did a job at Hyams Beach few years back .....
     
  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    here tis.
    ripped from fb
     
  11. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us
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    Despite the BOM forecast not a drop here at Moonbah today.

    NE this arvo....



    SW just now.....

     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    There's a good chance coastal centres in Vic & NSW will surpass inland max temps on Friday.
    A unique scenario for December.


     
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  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Patience Grasshopper ! ;)
    easy said sitting here on the coast !
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Thats a real odd pitch map.
    I'm not sure its right.
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    pitch ?
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    No hotlinks
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    cricket
    where the ball lands
    I don't get the gap through the central west towards Sydney.
     
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  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    See you've got rotation and central cold pool.
    Then a warm airmass being dragged down from tropical north
    In my simple speak the meeting of those two should produce some decent falls
    The edge
    That edge looks undercooked
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep .
    Thats the uncertainty of this , or rather both of these.
    Ex TC Owen and the anticipated cut off.
    the hot n cold mix.
     
  22. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Looks a bit more uniform on axs and ec.
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    That is axs.......
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Widespread on EC.
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Axs g . And out beyond 72 hrs.
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    lets hope so.
    edit... love Tomerong and Bombala in the locations !!!! LOL
     
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  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Looks like the business end of the deal late Thurs imo. Plenty of instability swirling into the mix with some stodgy CAPE and K Index levels.
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    my punter access msl precip models ( AXS , EC ,GFS ) have had Thursday arvo / night locked in for quite a few days now.
    500 anoms also been in sync.
    bunker down.
     
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  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Yeah the train track looks good there.
    NW inbound
     
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  30. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Thats like still playing Sudoku
     
  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    this time of year moar then happy to say the Pineapple word.
     
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  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    MANGO!
     
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  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    if it delivers out west I'm sure we'll all have the full fruit salad.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    For me Friday is the mixing bowl for Convective development.
    Some good EHI values through Sydney and Newcastle.
    Plenty of warm air advection by this point, much more organised. KTemp plots early Fridee arvie need a jersey...
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Bullseye on Melbourne.

    [​IMG]
     
  36. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Wow, 100mm+ how likely is that to actually happen?
     
  37. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    Looks like a bit of divergence between EC and GFS. EC going for up to 60mm'ish and GFS 100mm'ish .

    Even at 60mm that's a significant amount for Melbourne in 2 days
     
  38. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    ill believe it when i see it, even 60mm.
    Fingers crossed however
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Latest EC run has backed off the figures for Melbourne somewhat. Thursday is 20mm or so, which is much less than the 40mm originally shown. Friday numbers bumped up though.
     
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  40. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    We might get 30mm. We might get 100mm. Who knows?

    Looking like a December to Remember if it's the latter.... A bit like 2007. A dry winter and spring due to a +ve IOD, but we got some big storms and rains just before Christmas that year.
     
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  41. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    These are very big numbers for Melbourne (125 mm).
    Personally, I dont want 100mm plus as it will most likely cause flooding at work and home.
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    18Z GFS is unchanged. Lets see if it starts siding with EC later today.
     
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  43. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    GFS numbers have even gone up for Melbourne, over 110mm
     
  44. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Nice steady rain falling in Dubbo for the last 30 minutes.
     
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  45. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us
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    Isolated cloud burst / thunderstorm at Moonbah. Small hail and some rain. From this......



    Watching the rain and at the same time looking at a bit of cloud sitting over PV in the opposite direction.......

     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    The 3500 km trough. Aint she a beauty.
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Simply sensational. A pool of cold air at circa 5000 to 6000 metres. Add some warm moist atmosphere, spin it in circles and what do you get ?
     
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  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Ruined wine crops in the Barossa and Mclaren Vale.
    How often would they get 120mm in a day from the east?
    Never
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Barossa should be ok i think.
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Mclaren Vale .........................