Mega Thread The Great Summer Hotplate

Discussion in 'Weather' started by nfip, Dec 1, 2018.

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  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    996hPa over Vic. boom.
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    IMO this is the best weekend of summer yet. Hopefully we have an early Indian summer, followed by a cold damp autumn from Anzac day onwards. Though for the Illawarra it's often the reverse.
     
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  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yeah I have a feeling that the cold will come early this year.
     
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  5. teckel

    teckel Old n' Crusty
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    Dreadful January, lovely February. So far.
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Well if we keep getting Wind Vector Anomolies like this there is a good chance that washing machine down South may get some good wobble up and throw some goodness our way.
     
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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    An interesting recent migratory anomoly in sequence. Cold anomoly starting at 20 East
     
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  8. IAB

    IAB A Local
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    Best day in Sydney for weeks. Can sit outside in the shade without melting.
     
  9. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Yes best day of the summer right on average low humidity.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    As expected, BOM now including snow to 1600m in Vic resorts. On the conservative side in terms of height IMO. GFS/EC certainly indicating to ~1400m if the moisture is there IMO. Not the most moisture rich system though.

    Baw Baw:
     
  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yep, you don't see a setup like that during February very often.
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    A follow-up a week later?

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    yr.no holding steady on Wednesday morning for a few flakes on MtK - Hopefully Mr Smith is foolish enough to venture out at first light to bring us some live pixs from the scene above 2000 meters for our breakfast entertainment.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM Tas lowering heights to a more reasonable (IMO) level of 900m in the SW.

    Latest Sat pic shows a region of climatic diversity.
    The Monsoon trough amplified by the MJO signal currently in the SW Pacific/Coral Sea, and snow bearing fronts deep in the Southern Ocean South of the continent:
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
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    Western Tassie quietly clocking up some decent rainfall totals now. Mt Read getting inch & a half or so per day.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Low level vort and orographically, it's cooking for SW Tas.
     
  17. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
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    At the very least, doing a good job of extinguishing the various fires in the western area - couple of decent size ones (Roseberry area & south of Macquarie Harbour) there that weren't getting the attention like the Gell, Plateau & Huon fires.

    Some good falls in the north east as well, hopefully blunting fire conditions for remainder of summer & allowing resources to consolidate on the other big fires.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    100%.
    Poor choice of wording ('cooking') for this scenario. My bad.
    Was more meaning the Western Ranges are scraping it out of the sky at the moment.
    The below doesn't even take into consideration the 30-40mm received since yesterday.[​IMG]
     
  19. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
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    The kind of 'cooking' we're happy to see in Western Tas!!

    Winter like conditions in the western ranges, much of that precip falling in single figures, that cold, all pervasive mizzle that's worse to operate in than -10C.

    Meanwhile the Townsville Terror low is still spinning up out to the north east & the bloody Pilbara is still properly cooking away with no end in sight. The (very light) rain band from the current low approaching Tas, stretched from us (SW WA) all the way into Tassie this morning. We only registered a trace though. Amusingly some Latino friends were too scared to go camping on the WA south coast today because of 'bad weather' (clouds) forecast on their Playschool weather application!!
     
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  20. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Statewide TFB for NSW tuesday 37 forecast for Sydney
     
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  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    it truly is how long can our luck last in NSW.
     
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  22. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Nice that its so short lived. Back to mid 20's there after.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Until next week where we'll see another heat trough return.
    The downside to the system is it provides virtually no moisture to NSW, and bugger all to Vic for that matter.
     
  24. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Has been very humid in Sydney this summer but tommorow is classic fire weather hopefully no ignition as it will burn big time.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    GFS - 4am Tuesday looking like action for Tassie - continuing beyond midday with snowfall levels down to 1000 metres imo.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    RE: Tas.
    Today's GFS00z 1100m FL & -28c @500mb translates to snow to around 700/800m IMO.
    BoM now saying 800m for the SW district.
    Let's see if EC can match it. if so, I reckon will see 'em continue to come to the party.
     
  27. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Watch the media go batsh*t crazy when NSW have a TFB and Tassie has snow...

    #straya
     
  28. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
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    Another casual 30mm since 9am on Mt Read.

    Has warmed up to double figures ahead of the main front, one could almost remove a layer & dry half a sock if you were hanging out in the climbers cave over on the Tyndalls.

    Snow on the fireground around central plateau?
     
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  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Tomorrow will be Wollongongs hottest day this summer

    Think of me in my ute
    No AC
    Vinyl seats
     
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  30. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
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    Sydney supporter. I feel only amusement?
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    may your ankles be set upon by ravenous ferrets
     
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  32. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    Forecast max of 37? That’s getting off very lightly this summer.
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    IMO it will blow through that
    *i'm also heading out west
     
  34. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
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    May your windows get stuck with seven dead prawns wedged in your air intake....
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Only seven?

    Seven dead prawns = Rooty Hill stench
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    East of The Walls of Jerusalem? Absolutely.
    Would make a great photo essay.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC 00z run puts the FL more in the 1300m range. In conjunction w/ Diurnal lows around the same time (4am Wednesday), I think snow to 900/1000m ASL is a more realistic level.
    However AXS goes for colder uppers -29/30C so that's where BoM like the lower end of the scale.
    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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  39. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us
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    Think of me up a crane in the sauna that is the steelworks. You break a sweat just standing there on the coldest day of winter.
     
  40. W0nkey D0nkey

    W0nkey D0nkey One of Us
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    Of course tommorow is the first day im up there this year.
     
  41. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    it's why god invented beer.
    and Albert Einstein put bubbles in it.
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    For people of the Gong? I can believe that.
     
  44. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
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    985.7 on Maatsuyker Island.

    Pressures dropping like the Tas Fire alerts list, thankfully.
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    At least it's started off cool in NSW. ..

    Low mid teens
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    On it's way.

    Observed since 9am Monday.
     
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  47. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Got that pre frontal blustery feel out
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Mount Read (119m ASL), Tas, down to +2.9C, 60mm in the can and winds gusting 119km/h.
    It's alive!
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    yup, could really feel it on the bike this morning.
     
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  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    sporting 34 degs here on the Sth Co.
    no breeze.
    fingers x'ed the day is un-eventful

    Fire Weather Warning
    for the North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Far South Coast, Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes, North Western, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes, Eastern Riverina and Far Western fire areas

    Issued at 4:29 am EDT on Tuesday 12 February 2019.

    Weather Situation
    Hot, dry and windy conditions ahead of a cold front are generating elevated fire dangers across much of the state.

    For the rest of Tuesday 12 February:
    Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire area:
    Greater Hunter

    Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
    North Coast, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western

    Very High Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
    Far South Coast, Monaro Alpine, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes, Eastern Riverina and Far Western
     
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