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Discussion in 'Weather' started by nfip, Dec 1, 2018.
996hPa over Vic. boom.
IMO this is the best weekend of summer yet. Hopefully we have an early Indian summer, followed by a cold damp autumn from Anzac day onwards. Though for the Illawarra it's often the reverse.
Yeah I have a feeling that the cold will come early this year.
Dreadful January, lovely February. So far.
Well if we keep getting Wind Vector Anomolies like this there is a good chance that washing machine down South may get some good wobble up
and throw some goodness our way.
An interesting recent migratory anomoly in sequence. Cold anomoly starting at 20 East
Best day in Sydney for weeks. Can sit outside in the shade without melting.
Yes best day of the summer right on average low humidity.
As expected, BOM now including snow to 1600m in Vic resorts. On the conservative side in terms of height IMO. GFS/EC certainly indicating to ~1400m if the moisture is there IMO. Not the most moisture rich system though.
Yep, you don't see a setup like that during February very often.
A follow-up a week later?
yr.no holding steady on Wednesday morning for a few flakes on MtK - Hopefully Mr Smith is foolish enough to venture out at first light to bring us some live pixs from the scene above 2000 meters for our breakfast entertainment.
BOM Tas lowering heights to a more reasonable (IMO) level of 900m in the SW.
Latest Sat pic shows a region of climatic diversity.
The Monsoon trough amplified by the MJO signal currently in the SW Pacific/Coral Sea, and snow bearing fronts deep in the Southern Ocean South of the continent:
Western Tassie quietly clocking up some decent rainfall totals now. Mt Read getting inch & a half or so per day.
Low level vort and orographically, it's cooking for SW Tas.
At the very least, doing a good job of extinguishing the various fires in the western area - couple of decent size ones (Roseberry area & south of Macquarie Harbour) there that weren't getting the attention like the Gell, Plateau & Huon fires.
Some good falls in the north east as well, hopefully blunting fire conditions for remainder of summer & allowing resources to consolidate on the other big fires.
Poor choice of wording ('cooking') for this scenario. My bad.
Was more meaning the Western Ranges are scraping it out of the sky at the moment.
The below doesn't even take into consideration the 30-40mm received since yesterday.
The kind of 'cooking' we're happy to see in Western Tas!!
Winter like conditions in the western ranges, much of that precip falling in single figures, that cold, all pervasive mizzle that's worse to operate in than -10C.
Meanwhile the Townsville Terror low is still spinning up out to the north east & the bloody Pilbara is still properly cooking away with no end in sight. The (very light) rain band from the current low approaching Tas, stretched from us (SW WA) all the way into Tassie this morning. We only registered a trace though. Amusingly some Latino friends were too scared to go camping on the WA south coast today because of 'bad weather' (clouds) forecast on their Playschool weather application!!
Statewide TFB for NSW tuesday 37 forecast for Sydney
it truly is how long can our luck last in NSW.
Nice that its so short lived. Back to mid 20's there after.
Until next week where we'll see another heat trough return.
The downside to the system is it provides virtually no moisture to NSW, and bugger all to Vic for that matter.
Has been very humid in Sydney this summer but tommorow is classic fire weather hopefully no ignition as it will burn big time.
GFS - 4am Tuesday looking like action for Tassie - continuing beyond midday with snowfall levels down to 1000 metres imo.
Today's GFS00z 1100m FL & -28c @500mb translates to snow to around 700/800m IMO.
BoM now saying 800m for the SW district.
Let's see if EC can match it. if so, I reckon will see 'em continue to come to the party.
Watch the media go batsh*t crazy when NSW have a TFB and Tassie has snow...
Another casual 30mm since 9am on Mt Read.
Has warmed up to double figures ahead of the main front, one could almost remove a layer & dry half a sock if you were hanging out in the climbers cave over on the Tyndalls.
Snow on the fireground around central plateau?
Tomorrow will be Wollongongs hottest day this summer
Think of me in my ute
Sydney supporter. I feel only amusement?
may your ankles be set upon by ravenous ferrets
Forecast max of 37? That’s getting off very lightly this summer.
IMO it will blow through that
*i'm also heading out west
May your windows get stuck with seven dead prawns wedged in your air intake....
Seven dead prawns = Rooty Hill stench
East of The Walls of Jerusalem? Absolutely.
Would make a great photo essay.
EC 00z run puts the FL more in the 1300m range. In conjunction w/ Diurnal lows around the same time (4am Wednesday), I think snow to 900/1000m ASL is a more realistic level.
However AXS goes for colder uppers -29/30C so that's where BoM like the lower end of the scale.
Think of me up a crane in the sauna that is the steelworks. You break a sweat just standing there on the coldest day of winter.
Of course tommorow is the first day im up there this year.
it's why god invented beer.
and Albert Einstein put bubbles in it.
is a good snapshot at a glance go-to .IMO.
For people of the Gong? I can believe that.
985.7 on Maatsuyker Island.
Pressures dropping like the Tas Fire alerts list, thankfully.
At least it's started off cool in NSW. ..
Low mid teens
On it's way.
Observed since 9am Monday.
Got that pre frontal blustery feel out
Mount Read (119m ASL), Tas, down to +2.9C, 60mm in the can and winds gusting 119km/h.
yup, could really feel it on the bike this morning.
sporting 34 degs here on the Sth Co.
fingers x'ed the day is un-eventful
Fire Weather Warning
for the North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Far South Coast, Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes, North Western, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes, Eastern Riverina and Far Western fire areas
Issued at 4:29 am EDT on Tuesday 12 February 2019.
Hot, dry and windy conditions ahead of a cold front are generating elevated fire dangers across much of the state.
For the rest of Tuesday 12 February:
Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire area:
Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
North Coast, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western
Very High Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Far South Coast, Monaro Alpine, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes, Eastern Riverina and Far Western
A month of furnace here and then we cop a couple of 11 degree mornings. Amazing how one can crave more heat again so quickly. I was away without a jumper and that 11 degrees felt bloody cold. Not ready for winter just yet.
Hot day in Sydney today so whole state goes on a total fire ban. Below the january avg max in most places west of the GDR.