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Discussion in 'General & World' started by nfip, Dec 1, 2018.
That's a very strong WWB....
And for the layman what does this mean for Autumn
What a night. So peaceful. Cool and no wind
Westerly Wind Bursts . Easterly and Westerly wind burst are believed to be associated with El Nino predictability. GEFS is however forecasting an Easterly stall later this month.
So, when will Guthega be opening?
Usualy 9 am.
Westerly for Niño. Easterly more Nina like. Some exciting implications for Australian long term prediction.
Its all about the scope and duration.
EC has something else in mind-
One way or another, someone is going to get the smack laid on them? Townsville Terror - the return!!
IMO the GFS bulk shear anomolies suggest the depression wont travel that far South (NZ) but if they are somewher near the money should also steer further away from Townsville than EC has progged.
22° halo here in Sydney this arvo. No sun dogs though.
I’m bored with summer. Can we have autumn soon, please?
An early season changer?
Yep, have definitely noticed nodes coming up, with that episode of Tasmanian snowfall. Definitely a big chance to see quite a few ground cooler events this autumn IMO. The Arctic TPV is certainly starting to move away from Summer.
Big change to a fortnight ago. It was due to head back up well-into the +’ives through the tail end of the month.
Felt like early autumn riding NE hills in Melbourne this morning. Pea soup fog and almost a chill place in some spots.
The folks at Albany are continuing developing 3D atmospheric profiles using Light Detection and Ranging equipment ( LIDAR) . Exiting times . Click on the image to see the flags.
More here NYS Mesonet
Potential NZ apocalypse
@Claude Cat obvs feel free to merge to Cyclone thread, however...
JTWC says it all really:
The track is entirely dependent on the sub-trop ridge (SE Aus) and the shortwave hitting Southern NZ on the 22/23FEB.
If this shortwave carries such amplitude as EC suggests, then Oma is entirely SE QLD's problem.
GFS seems tropical biased here - overstating intensity and ignoring this NZ shortwave, so IMO EC is closer to the truth.
So much divergence, so many scenarios beyond 72 hours....
GFS ignoring it's very-own long wave trough pattern (23FEB) also?
IMO It's got cold-outbreak anom written all over it for NZ.
EC takes a shining to this outcome.
Some dark clouds in Canberra after another hot and humid day. Think I might get a bit wet walking home from the bus stop
Long Range forecast looks like a great big bunch of nothing for Melbourne over the next week. Sigh.
I'll be happy for winter, we sure have had a rubbish storm season compared to last year (in the city anyways)
Hey JB - this might be useful for your snow prediction page.
Long range forecast looks depressingly boring. Some good camping/fishing weather in there though!
Absolute cracker of a storm just passed through Cairns. 80kmh gust recorded at Cannon Park AWS.
And a bit of Grief for one of @dibl0c workmates.
Earning their money.
Odd little system off Sydney coast, intense rain with a bit of a curve to it. Windy showing something too. Possible spout?
Humid AF in Port Macquarie right now. Awaiting incoming storm.
What height is that for the Windy streamlines? It modeled or observed?
Spiraling streamlines are usually just indicative of convergence, but anything is possible with the SSTA's and that wind out there at the moment. The hook is the right orientation.
A chance of a little dusting for Mount Kosicuiszko on March 4/5 on EPS.
Models looking at a short return to Summer on the end of next week, for the South-East. Born from our mates in NW WA.
Particularly for Tas if the ridge extends that far south in the Tasman.
Yeah saw that last night. String of 30+ days for Melbourne starting Sunday. Mind you not at all unusual, I recall it happening almost every year in late Feb and March
24 Tuesday though and mild after that
A little bit of warmth but still comfortable. The last couple of weeks have been very comfortable, albeit a bit boring. Will happily take this Feb's weather over what January dished up. Some rain would be nice though.
A nice on shore flow brought 24mm of rain in Gosford to 9am this morning on top of 5.2mm yesterday. Should of given the catchment some much needed water.
Cool and sunny out in the Alpine today. Quite a decent breeze as well. Enough to keep layers on while walking out there. Beats the heat.....
So camping at seal rocks this weekend, yay or nay?? Don't mind a bit of rain. but prefer none on Sunday morning (for pack up).
Any periods of sun over the weekend?
It’s been dry here in Canberra for the past 10 days or so (despite looming clouds). Can it rain soon please? Parts of Kambah are also undergoing internet outages (I think @Kletterer may be a victim).
Seal Rocks nsw north coast?
Looks a bit miserable to be honest, and southerly and onshore and a bit exposed (though I shouldn't really try a surf forecast I can't do that).
I might suggest the Wolgan Valley north of lithgow as a good spot to camp this weekend. It's in a rain shadow for southerly/easterly weather and should be drier and warmer.
Thanks... don't think we are going now. The reason is about to go into the venting thread.
Any rain for inland se Aus in the foreseeable future? Not seeing much...
This is cool. Best with audio:
Looking like a late season heatwave for Melbourne / VIC next week. Low 30's from Sunday until we rise to the high 30's at the end of the week.
About the same for Adelaide. I’m so over it. I dread my water bill coming too.
Heard someone on the tram talking about going to the beach all day on Sunday. It’s going to be 37 degrees
Long range GFS is starting to show the next round of weather - which I assume is related to the next passing of the MJO.
Bit of snow showing on UnZed web cams for what it's worth.