Mega Thread The Great Summer Hotplate

Discussion in 'Weather' started by nfip, Dec 1, 2018.

  1. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    GFS has calmed down on the rainfall figures for Melbourne and are more in line with EC, circa 60-70mm
     
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Not the best timing for them. Touch and go imo.
     
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  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Makin' Gravy.....
    just add a dollop of tomato sauce .
    for a little extra tang.


     
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  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Its not a drought breaker...However its a very unusual and widespread event.
    "rain in strange places"
     
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Brindies quite active atm. A few drops in Kambah and Thor has his hammer out.
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    just not at the Domain on saturday night.
    pls.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    El nin..... Nah...
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    should be ok.
    maybe
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Dont underestimate the potential of this system to deliver patches of very heavy falls. There will be plenty of surface heat utilised to push things ( vapour) briskly up to the dewpoint level. Nice high clould columns and this generaly mean lots of latent heat release up at around 6000 metre level- ( the height where the cut off cold pool is lurking) so deep level instability on the cards imo.
     
  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    be a few nervous folk in the SW suburbs....
     
  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    *in strange places
    Crazy whip in from the east
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Yep. The layer to layer shear dynamics will be funky imo.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Friday's still the day for Sydney, Illawarra, Hunter storm development IMO.


    EC CAPE:
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    As progged by GFS Friday PM (Sydney). Note the 1.22 EHI (Helicity) value & Total Totals @51c.
    Vertical, directional and speed shear is all well covered...
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    In my way of thinking , they look to be coming from the nor nor/west?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Steering winds at nor nor, west. Yep.
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    I think the supercell that hit Kensington that time was a N N/W
    They miss bits of topography that change their structure.

    MInd you. I've got a vibe this has the hunter and cenco's name on it
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Thursday looks more widespread. ?
    summary...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us
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    I'm confused. Looking at gfs and ec forecasts of cape, rainfall, and skew forecasts, my interpretation was that the second half of thursday looked to be the flashy period for thecentral and eastern parts of nsw, not friday arvo as indicated by @POW_hungry .

    What am I missing? Is it more to do with the interaction of the upper level pool that you were discussing?
     
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  20. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us
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    Sitting outside watching some decent cloud over PV. Out of curiosity had a look at BOM. Not a bad “shower” between 6:30 and 7:000 pm.

     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    Possibly more Vertical Shear later on . Deep layer shear contrast in knots increases thunderstorm likelihood.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Don't get me wrong, Thursday looks something like; rumbles and some flashes amongst the rain trains (boring!!;)). Friday's prog is more localised, severe storm cell stuff.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Smells like hail. Good pick-up.
     
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  24. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    I expect Victorian BOM to be raising flood-watches later tomorrow.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    A good Yates advertisement with Blue Cow resembling the garden of Eden.
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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    With Pow on this one .Deep layer Shear plot 6am Friday. - moving towards an area of greater available moisture- coupled with the bigger K Index levels for Syndey basin/ Blueys and coastal areas equates to big instability potential.
     
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  28. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us
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    I noticed the same at Falls too, looks fake almost

     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    aaaah looks like opening weekend.
     
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  30. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Its the spring time pop after 30 degree heat of a few days ago.
     
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  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Hopefully some of those 100mm+ purple patches hits Bathurst Region and fills up Lake Burrendong for some summer floating releases.
     
  32. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us
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    Out of interest whats the potential for any high wind in Melb for the duration of this system? Even if its only associated with thunderstorms. Vic bom has the wind pretty benign for the whole event.
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Still dry as a nuns ........ in jindy i've been told. Heaps of green weed
     
  34. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    At the pub?
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Bro please
    Nuns don't drink
     
  36. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    LOL
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  38. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us
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    Cruised up to DP via dargo today. Been itching to get into mountains in the 4wd for summer leisure activities. I dont think the weather could possibly be any better for it. Glorious. Looking like a week of thunderstorms ahead

    I would recommend to anyone that hasn't, drive up from dargo to hotham on a day like today

    Still a spec of snow hanging on at hotham
     

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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Such a crap beach
    Sunset very very SSW
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The low is progged to stall & dilate largely over Vic so winds are somewhat benign for the duration (Thursday/Friday).

    Thursday arvo looks the worst of it with the heavy falls after it switches Southerly IMO. 10-15 knots winds perhaps? EC showing similar.
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. MarkV

    MarkV Addicted
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    Dargo high plains is a terrific drive!
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Looking like an interesting week for the entire Eastern seaboard.
    Going to get some swell at the local lefthanders from this , if it progresses as modelled.
    EC.
    https://www.windy.com/?-26.155,138.340,4

    will we see fujiwhara effect in the Sth Pac / Tasman ?
     
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  45. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    I’m just relieved that we’ve finally been getting some rain in Canberra after missing out on a drenching in November. A heavy downpour a little earlier in my neck of the woods (Kambah) and some rather spectacular lightning.
     
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  46. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    Why, in your opinion, is it such a crap beach?
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    It's not in NSW ;)
     
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  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Expectation
    Its very underwhelming

    As far as Vicco beaches go. I like the rugged Otways, Lorne, Johanna.
    Even some of the beaches down random roads near Lakes are rad.
    Flinders area is nice .

    As a surfer...its a very ho hum area (bells that is)
     
  49. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Can confirm ground up in the mountains is well stocked with water after another above average snow year.
     
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  50. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Agree, for surfing there are many better options