Looks like the heat is following me.Last hurrah for peak summer heat this/next week in vic.
Been a nice cooler last couple of weeks over February. Have enjoyed.
Yikes that's a lot of 40s...
Not terrible better across the border, it's a sea of mid to high 30s over here in Melbourne.
'Shortwave' is generally linked to upper-level low-pressure waves (longwaves), so could be anything in the 'low pressure' variety, at the surface.Can you interpret "chance of some shortwave influence" to commoner's lingo? Thinking cold front, but just a guess . . . . ?
It's looking okay, but the pulse might just weaken as it comes to our shores.Mid March looks to be the next bout of real weather.
++ Madden–Julian Oscillation moves into Indian Ocean
Issued 26 February 2019
After slowing down during the second half of February, a moderate strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to advance at a more typical rate and track eastwards across the tropical Indian Ocean during the next fortnight. Suppressed rainfall conditions across the broader Australian and Maritime Continent region, typically associated with the MJO near Africa at this time of the year, are likely to continue. However, the current conditions associated with the MJO are somewhat complicated by the presence of an equatorial Rossby wave which has been near the Maritime Continent during the past week. This Rossby wave aided the development and maintenance of tropical lows (specifically, ex-TC Oma and typhoon Wutip) and in turn facilitated the influx of atmospheric moisture across the Maritime Continent region. Locations which would typically experience drier conditions due to the suppressing activity of the MJO, including parts of the Maritime Continent and tropical western Pacific regions, observed above-average rainfall during the past week.
As the westward-moving Rossby wave continues to track across the Maritime Continent in the coming days, there remains an increased chance of periods of above-average rainfall in some parts, including northern Australia. Once the Rossby wave moves out of the region in about a week's time, the suppressing influence of the MJO will resume as the primary climate driver across the region, and monsoon break conditions should return to northern Australia.
The next best chance for active monsoon conditions and above-average rainfall to develop across northern Australia is when the MJO pulse moves close to the Maritime Continent. Based on current climate models this is still more than two weeks away.
It's looking okay, but the pulse might just weaken as it comes to our shores.
EPS looks for a weakening to the COD in Phase 4.
Same with GEFS, but it is strong enough for the mean not to weaken fully.
RE: MJO model difference.
This has happened a lot during the NH winter, GEFS strengthening the MJO signal and EPS being more weaker, and GEFS (to a degree of surprise) seems to be winning a lot more than the EPS. The reality is we are still in a very Niño-esque state in terms of the tropical atmosphere.
Some good amplitude showing on GFS 06z 11 & 15Mar (as does EC):Models suggesting a chance of some shortwave influence over the SE next week, namely Tuesday and a bigger signal appearing Friday through Victoria.
...But alas, I am not holding my breath.
To be bold, I like a little something significant for the Southern States around the 11-15th March (basically, on the next MJO pass) IMO.
I just checked the monthly table for Canberra and it hasn't rained since 9 Feb other than a flukey event on Tuesday late arvo.It certainly has been a dry February in Melbourne. We've only had 18mm of rain with most of that falling in storms over one day.
The next few days look oppressive. High 30s for 4 days and nights not going any lower than 24.
Can someone tell me if I need to put snow chains on my 4WD to get to Perisher ? Also will I need alpine diesel ? Can I get good ski in - ski out accommodation?