The Great Summer Hotplate

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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Meanwhile GFS is off-tap and has dementia.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_aus_49.png
 

Rabid K9

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Yikes that's a lot of 40s...

Not terrible better across the border, it's a sea of mid to high 30s over here in Melbourne.

Can't see much medium term relief from the southern heat with the heat low still firmly stuck over the Pilbara & nothing in the frame to budge it. Think we'll be seeing thirties well into April this year, bugger it.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Models suggesting a chance of some shortwave influence over the SE next week, namely Tuesday and a bigger signal appearing Friday through Victoria.

...But alas, I am not holding my breath.

To be bold, I like a little something significant for the Southern States around the 11-15th March (basically, on the next MJO pass) IMO.
Screen Shot 2019-02-26 at 7.36.42 pm.png
 

Jacko4650

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Can you interpret "chance of some shortwave influence" to commoner's lingo? Thinking cold front, but just a guess . . . . ?
 

POW Hungry

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Can you interpret "chance of some shortwave influence" to commoner's lingo? Thinking cold front, but just a guess . . . . ?
'Shortwave' is generally linked to upper-level low-pressure waves (longwaves), so could be anything in the 'low pressure' variety, at the surface.
I don't have a clue yet as it's >2 weeks away.
 

Kletterer

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GFS has a a bit of potential respite on the 6th- 7th with some reasonable lift up to 600 hPa level. EC showing a tad later and you guessed it- further South.
Just1.gif
just.png
Not quite cancel your fishing trip kinda stuff though imo.
 

rocketboy

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Mid March looks to be the next bout of real weather.

++ Madden–Julian Oscillation moves into Indian Ocean
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Weekly-note
Issued 26 February 2019

After slowing down during the second half of February, a moderate strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to advance at a more typical rate and track eastwards across the tropical Indian Ocean during the next fortnight. Suppressed rainfall conditions across the broader Australian and Maritime Continent region, typically associated with the MJO near Africa at this time of the year, are likely to continue. However, the current conditions associated with the MJO are somewhat complicated by the presence of an equatorial Rossby wave which has been near the Maritime Continent during the past week. This Rossby wave aided the development and maintenance of tropical lows (specifically, ex-TC Oma and typhoon Wutip) and in turn facilitated the influx of atmospheric moisture across the Maritime Continent region. Locations which would typically experience drier conditions due to the suppressing activity of the MJO, including parts of the Maritime Continent and tropical western Pacific regions, observed above-average rainfall during the past week.

As the westward-moving Rossby wave continues to track across the Maritime Continent in the coming days, there remains an increased chance of periods of above-average rainfall in some parts, including northern Australia. Once the Rossby wave moves out of the region in about a week's time, the suppressing influence of the MJO will resume as the primary climate driver across the region, and monsoon break conditions should return to northern Australia.

The next best chance for active monsoon conditions and above-average rainfall to develop across northern Australia is when the MJO pulse moves close to the Maritime Continent. Based on current climate models this is still more than two weeks away.
 

Jellybeans

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Mid March looks to be the next bout of real weather.

++ Madden–Julian Oscillation moves into Indian Ocean
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Weekly-note
Issued 26 February 2019

After slowing down during the second half of February, a moderate strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to advance at a more typical rate and track eastwards across the tropical Indian Ocean during the next fortnight. Suppressed rainfall conditions across the broader Australian and Maritime Continent region, typically associated with the MJO near Africa at this time of the year, are likely to continue. However, the current conditions associated with the MJO are somewhat complicated by the presence of an equatorial Rossby wave which has been near the Maritime Continent during the past week. This Rossby wave aided the development and maintenance of tropical lows (specifically, ex-TC Oma and typhoon Wutip) and in turn facilitated the influx of atmospheric moisture across the Maritime Continent region. Locations which would typically experience drier conditions due to the suppressing activity of the MJO, including parts of the Maritime Continent and tropical western Pacific regions, observed above-average rainfall during the past week.

As the westward-moving Rossby wave continues to track across the Maritime Continent in the coming days, there remains an increased chance of periods of above-average rainfall in some parts, including northern Australia. Once the Rossby wave moves out of the region in about a week's time, the suppressing influence of the MJO will resume as the primary climate driver across the region, and monsoon break conditions should return to northern Australia.

The next best chance for active monsoon conditions and above-average rainfall to develop across northern Australia is when the MJO pulse moves close to the Maritime Continent. Based on current climate models this is still more than two weeks away.
It's looking okay, but the pulse might just weaken as it comes to our shores.
IMG_6424.GIF

EPS looks for a weakening to the COD in Phase 4.
IMG_6425.GIF

Same with GEFS, but it is strong enough for the mean not to weaken fully.

RE: MJO model difference.
This has happened a lot during the NH winter, GEFS strengthening the MJO signal and EPS being more weaker, and GEFS (to a degree of surprise) seems to be winning a lot more than the EPS. The reality is we are still in a very Niño-esque state in terms of the tropical atmosphere.
 

rocketboy

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It's looking okay, but the pulse might just weaken as it comes to our shores.
IMG_6424.GIF

EPS looks for a weakening to the COD in Phase 4.
IMG_6425.GIF

Same with GEFS, but it is strong enough for the mean not to weaken fully.

RE: MJO model difference.
This has happened a lot during the NH winter, GEFS strengthening the MJO signal and EPS being more weaker, and GEFS (to a degree of surprise) seems to be winning a lot more than the EPS. The reality is we are still in a very Niño-esque state in terms of the tropical atmosphere.

Here's the latest pacific cross section - looks to be plenty of slosh to keep mixing it back to a warm neutral.

IDYOC002.gif
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Models suggesting a chance of some shortwave influence over the SE next week, namely Tuesday and a bigger signal appearing Friday through Victoria.

...But alas, I am not holding my breath.

To be bold, I like a little something significant for the Southern States around the 11-15th March (basically, on the next MJO pass) IMO.
Screen Shot 2019-02-26 at 7.36.42 pm.png
Some good amplitude showing on GFS 06z 11 & 15Mar (as does EC):
gfs_z500aNorm_aus_45.png
 
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Belly

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It certainly has been a dry February in Melbourne. We've only had 18mm of rain with most of that falling in storms over one day.

The next few days look oppressive. High 30s for 4 days and nights not going any lower than 24.

Dislike .
I just checked the monthly table for Canberra and it hasn't rained since 9 Feb other than a flukey event on Tuesday late arvo.
 
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SMSkier

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Last day of Summer was not unlike the rest of it. Sat out on the deck and watched lightning and some rain to the South of Thredbo.

We have had a proper Summer here in the South, albeit generally too dry across the paddocks.

Looking at the weather this evening with a glass of red....not a drop of rain to be had.

Autumn thread please!!!

6372595C-EADD-467F-B120-E73BCA07EF2B.jpeg

8FA6CD6C-942F-438E-AFF6-B72E2D8BA053.jpeg
 
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