Last hurrah for peak summer heat this/next week in vic. Been a nice cooler last couple of weeks over February. Have enjoyed.
Looks like the heat is following me. On my way back from Japan where they had a spring heatwave in Hakuba, land tomorrow morning back into a late summer heat.
Still bugger all rain for Melbourne for the next 7 days. Its been extremely dry so far this year, 29.8mm.
Yikes that's a lot of 40s... Not terrible better across the border, it's a sea of mid to high 30s over here in Melbourne.
Not familiar with Goldstream, where is it? The ICAO airport code is for Essendon, Victoria. Something doesn't add up there.
Can't see much medium term relief from the southern heat with the heat low still firmly stuck over the Pilbara & nothing in the frame to budge it. Think we'll be seeing thirties well into April this year, bugger it.
It seems Jane has been making headlines outside the weathersphere: https://www.theage.com.au/national/...y-selling-climate-change-20190225-p51007.html
Models suggesting a chance of some shortwave influence over the SE next week, namely Tuesday and a bigger signal appearing Friday through Victoria. ...But alas, I am not holding my breath. To be bold, I like a little something significant for the Southern States around the 11-15th March (basically, on the next MJO pass) IMO.
Can you interpret "chance of some shortwave influence" to commoner's lingo? Thinking cold front, but just a guess . . . . ?
'Shortwave' is generally linked to upper-level low-pressure waves (longwaves), so could be anything in the 'low pressure' variety, at the surface. I don't have a clue yet as it's >2 weeks away.
Escaped the warm Summer weather today.... 10 degrees in the caves....nice and cool down by the river.... @Yarrangobilly.
GFS has a a bit of potential respite on the 6th- 7th with some reasonable lift up to 600 hPa level. EC showing a tad later and you guessed it- further South. Not quite cancel your fishing trip kinda stuff though imo.
More snow for our antipodean counterparts today. Cook must be off to a good start to the year, for summer snowdepth gain.
Mid March looks to be the next bout of real weather. ++ Madden–Julian Oscillation moves into Indian Ocean http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Weekly-note Issued 26 February 2019 After slowing down during the second half of February, a moderate strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to advance at a more typical rate and track eastwards across the tropical Indian Ocean during the next fortnight. Suppressed rainfall conditions across the broader Australian and Maritime Continent region, typically associated with the MJO near Africa at this time of the year, are likely to continue. However, the current conditions associated with the MJO are somewhat complicated by the presence of an equatorial Rossby wave which has been near the Maritime Continent during the past week. This Rossby wave aided the development and maintenance of tropical lows (specifically, ex-TC Oma and typhoon Wutip) and in turn facilitated the influx of atmospheric moisture across the Maritime Continent region. Locations which would typically experience drier conditions due to the suppressing activity of the MJO, including parts of the Maritime Continent and tropical western Pacific regions, observed above-average rainfall during the past week. As the westward-moving Rossby wave continues to track across the Maritime Continent in the coming days, there remains an increased chance of periods of above-average rainfall in some parts, including northern Australia. Once the Rossby wave moves out of the region in about a week's time, the suppressing influence of the MJO will resume as the primary climate driver across the region, and monsoon break conditions should return to northern Australia. The next best chance for active monsoon conditions and above-average rainfall to develop across northern Australia is when the MJO pulse moves close to the Maritime Continent. Based on current climate models this is still more than two weeks away.
It's looking okay, but the pulse might just weaken as it comes to our shores. EPS looks for a weakening to the COD in Phase 4. Same with GEFS, but it is strong enough for the mean not to weaken fully. RE: MJO model difference. This has happened a lot during the NH winter, GEFS strengthening the MJO signal and EPS being more weaker, and GEFS (to a degree of surprise) seems to be winning a lot more than the EPS. The reality is we are still in a very Niño-esque state in terms of the tropical atmosphere.
It certainly has been a dry February in Melbourne. We've only had 18mm of rain with most of that falling in storms over one day. The next few days look oppressive. High 30s for 4 days and nights not going any lower than 24. Dislike .
Here's the latest pacific cross section - looks to be plenty of slosh to keep mixing it back to a warm neutral.
I'm talking about the atmosphere, not the oceans. I think it is important to seperate the two concepts.
I just checked the monthly table for Canberra and it hasn't rained since 9 Feb other than a flukey event on Tuesday late arvo.
Bom have released their Autumn outlook - I don't think it will come as much surprise to anyone what they are forecasting... except perhaps the "ice age" believers.
That is actually pretty amazing for Feb. This time last year most of the country was blanketed in snow.
Can someone tell me if I need to put snow chains on my 4WD to get to Perisher ? Also will I need alpine diesel ? Can I get good ski in - ski out accommodation?
Yes. Yes. And Jindabyne has some excellent ski in ski out accommodation given some observed wx events.
Last day of Summer was not unlike the rest of it. Sat out on the deck and watched lightning and some rain to the South of Thredbo. We have had a proper Summer here in the South, albeit generally too dry across the paddocks. Looking at the weather this evening with a glass of red....not a drop of rain to be had. Autumn thread please!!!
Just came in from taking pics of the night sky and there were quite a few lightning flashes off to the east of Warburton, hopefully no new fires as a result
have BOM just given us some glimmer of hope on the 4 dayer for a short cool spell. The chart seems not the same as yesterday with the front coming up the side of the high.
