The Great Summer Hotplate

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by nfip, Dec 1, 2018.

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  1. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last hurrah for peak summer heat this/next week in vic.
    Been a nice cooler last couple of weeks over February. Have enjoyed.
     
  2. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like the heat is following me.
    On my way back from Japan where they had a spring heatwave in Hakuba, land tomorrow morning back into a late summer heat.
     
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  3. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    C'mon now, you know full well how much fun working outside in the February sun is....
     
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  4. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    10 degrees, blowing and mizzle at Guyra this evening.
     
  5. dibl0c

    dibl0c coolstorydibloc™ Ski Pass: Gold

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    #shitadelaide or #brisbogan ... take your pick.
    Bit warm in Radelaide this week. :confused:
     
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  6. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Still bugger all rain for Melbourne for the next 7 days.
    Its been extremely dry so far this year, 29.8mm.
     
  7. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yikes that's a lot of 40s...

    Not terrible better across the border, it's a sea of mid to high 30s over here in Melbourne.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meanwhile GFS is off-tap and has dementia.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Today (past 24 hours ) it got to 47 and -49 in Australian territory.
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    -49C? Where? You sure about that?
    I see Amery, Antarctica reached -25C.
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not familiar with Goldstream, where is it?
    The ICAO airport code is for Essendon, Victoria. Something doesn't add up there.
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Not sure either.
     
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    It did look like a cold night though
     
  15. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Feeling very autumn this morning on Sydney's NB's..
     
  16. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't see much medium term relief from the southern heat with the heat low still firmly stuck over the Pilbara & nothing in the frame to budge it. Think we'll be seeing thirties well into April this year, bugger it.
     
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  17. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models suggesting a chance of some shortwave influence over the SE next week, namely Tuesday and a bigger signal appearing Friday through Victoria.

    ...But alas, I am not holding my breath.

    To be bold, I like a little something significant for the Southern States around the 11-15th March (basically, on the next MJO pass) IMO.
     
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  19. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Can you interpret "chance of some shortwave influence" to commoner's lingo? Thinking cold front, but just a guess . . . . ?
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Front, trough, closed-low or clipper. Could be any of the above at this time of year.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    'Shortwave' is generally linked to upper-level low-pressure waves (longwaves), so could be anything in the 'low pressure' variety, at the surface.
    I don't have a clue yet as it's >2 weeks away.
     
  22. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Escaped the warm Summer weather today.... 10 degrees in the caves....nice and cool down by the river.... @Yarrangobilly.



     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS has a a bit of potential respite on the 6th- 7th with some reasonable lift up to 600 hPa level. EC showing a tad later and you guessed it- further South. Not quite cancel your fishing trip kinda stuff though imo.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More snow for our antipodean counterparts today. Cook must be off to a good start to the year, for summer snowdepth gain.
     
  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mid March looks to be the next bout of real weather.

    ++ Madden–Julian Oscillation moves into Indian Ocean
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Weekly-note
    Issued 26 February 2019

    After slowing down during the second half of February, a moderate strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to advance at a more typical rate and track eastwards across the tropical Indian Ocean during the next fortnight. Suppressed rainfall conditions across the broader Australian and Maritime Continent region, typically associated with the MJO near Africa at this time of the year, are likely to continue. However, the current conditions associated with the MJO are somewhat complicated by the presence of an equatorial Rossby wave which has been near the Maritime Continent during the past week. This Rossby wave aided the development and maintenance of tropical lows (specifically, ex-TC Oma and typhoon Wutip) and in turn facilitated the influx of atmospheric moisture across the Maritime Continent region. Locations which would typically experience drier conditions due to the suppressing activity of the MJO, including parts of the Maritime Continent and tropical western Pacific regions, observed above-average rainfall during the past week.

    As the westward-moving Rossby wave continues to track across the Maritime Continent in the coming days, there remains an increased chance of periods of above-average rainfall in some parts, including northern Australia. Once the Rossby wave moves out of the region in about a week's time, the suppressing influence of the MJO will resume as the primary climate driver across the region, and monsoon break conditions should return to northern Australia.

    The next best chance for active monsoon conditions and above-average rainfall to develop across northern Australia is when the MJO pulse moves close to the Maritime Continent. Based on current climate models this is still more than two weeks away.
     
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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's looking okay, but the pulse might just weaken as it comes to our shores.

    EPS looks for a weakening to the COD in Phase 4.

    Same with GEFS, but it is strong enough for the mean not to weaken fully.

    RE: MJO model difference.
    This has happened a lot during the NH winter, GEFS strengthening the MJO signal and EPS being more weaker, and GEFS (to a degree of surprise) seems to be winning a lot more than the EPS. The reality is we are still in a very Niño-esque state in terms of the tropical atmosphere.
     
  27. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It certainly has been a dry February in Melbourne. We've only had 18mm of rain with most of that falling in storms over one day.

    The next few days look oppressive. High 30s for 4 days and nights not going any lower than 24.

    Dislike .
     
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  28. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's the latest pacific cross section - looks to be plenty of slosh to keep mixing it back to a warm neutral.

    [​IMG]
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some good amplitude showing on GFS 06z 11 & 15Mar (as does EC):
    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm talking about the atmosphere, not the oceans. I think it is important to seperate the two concepts.
     
  31. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meanwhile in the UK they're going through the hottest winter temperatures recorded, 21c "heatwave"

     
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  32. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I just checked the monthly table for Canberra and it hasn't rained since 9 Feb other than a flukey event on Tuesday late arvo.
     
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  33. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom have released their Autumn outlook - I don't think it will come as much surprise to anyone what they are forecasting... except perhaps the "ice age" believers.

     
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  34. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is actually pretty amazing for Feb. This time last year most of the country was blanketed in snow.
     
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  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can someone tell me if I need to put snow chains on my 4WD to get to Perisher ? Also will I need alpine diesel ? Can I get good ski in - ski out accommodation?
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Stay on topic.
     
  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes.
    Yes.
    And Jindabyne has some excellent ski in ski out accommodation given some observed wx events.
     
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  38. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    was just adding this in for more visual data on how strange this year has been.
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Autumn . Season of the Clipper. Coming soon
     
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  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will nice to see at least a bit of rain in Melbs next week.
     
  41. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. 32mm on 5 February and pretty much nothing since then. So dry ....
     
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  42. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some storms popping up out on the bay and near Geelong moving east.. stinking outside currently.
     
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am not hopeful to be honest. Very ridgy set up neck week IMO.
     
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  44. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last day of Summer was not unlike the rest of it. Sat out on the deck and watched lightning and some rain to the South of Thredbo.

    We have had a proper Summer here in the South, albeit generally too dry across the paddocks.

    Looking at the weather this evening with a glass of red....not a drop of rain to be had.

    Autumn thread please!!!


     
  45. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    32.5 currently in Melbourne. We sure do know how to see summer out...
     
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  46. GS

    GS Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just came in from taking pics of the night sky and there were quite a few lightning flashes off to the east of Warburton, hopefully no new fires as a result
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spill the beans. Update your post with pics accordingly.;)
     
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  48. GS

    GS Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think there was too much ambient light, but will have a closer look at them tomorrow.
     
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  49. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    have BOM just given us some glimmer of hope on the 4 dayer for a short cool spell. The chart seems not the same as yesterday with the front coming up the side of the high.
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has been suggesting the 5th as a break in the weather for a few days now.
     
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