Last hurrah for peak summer heat this/next week in vic.
Been a nice cooler last couple of weeks over February. Have enjoyed.
Been a nice cooler last couple of weeks over February. Have enjoyed.
The Great Summer Hotplate
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Looks like the heat is following me.
On my way back from Japan where they had a spring heatwave in Hakuba, land tomorrow morning back into a late summer heat.
C'mon now, you know full well how much fun working outside in the February sun is....
10 degrees, blowing and mizzle at Guyra this evening.
Yikes that's a lot of 40s...Bit warm in Radelaide this week.
Not terrible better across the border, it's a sea of mid to high 30s over here in Melbourne.
Meanwhile GFS is off-tap and has dementia.
Today (past 24 hours ) it got to 47 and -49 in Australian territory.
Not familiar with Goldstream, where is it?
The ICAO airport code is for Essendon, Victoria. Something doesn't add up there.
Feeling very autumn this morning on Sydney's NB's..
Can't see much medium term relief from the southern heat with the heat low still firmly stuck over the Pilbara & nothing in the frame to budge it. Think we'll be seeing thirties well into April this year, bugger it.
It seems Jane has been making headlines outside the weathersphere: https://www.theage.com.au/national/...y-selling-climate-change-20190225-p51007.html
Models suggesting a chance of some shortwave influence over the SE next week, namely Tuesday and a bigger signal appearing Friday through Victoria.
...But alas, I am not holding my breath.
To be bold, I like a little something significant for the Southern States around the 11-15th March (basically, on the next MJO pass) IMO.
Front, trough, closed-low or clipper. Could be any of the above at this time of year.
'Shortwave' is generally linked to upper-level low-pressure waves (longwaves), so could be anything in the 'low pressure' variety, at the surface.
I don't have a clue yet as it's >2 weeks away.
Escaped the warm Summer weather today.... 10 degrees in the caves....nice and cool down by the river.... @Yarrangobilly.
GFS has a a bit of potential respite on the 6th- 7th with some reasonable lift up to 600 hPa level. EC showing a tad later and you guessed it- further South.Not quite cancel your fishing trip kinda stuff though imo.
More snow for our antipodean counterparts today. Cook must be off to a good start to the year, for summer snowdepth gain.Mid March looks to be the next bout of real weather.
++ Madden–Julian Oscillation moves into Indian Ocean
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Weekly-note
Issued 26 February 2019
After slowing down during the second half of February, a moderate strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to advance at a more typical rate and track eastwards across the tropical Indian Ocean during the next fortnight. Suppressed rainfall conditions across the broader Australian and Maritime Continent region, typically associated with the MJO near Africa at this time of the year, are likely to continue. However, the current conditions associated with the MJO are somewhat complicated by the presence of an equatorial Rossby wave which has been near the Maritime Continent during the past week. This Rossby wave aided the development and maintenance of tropical lows (specifically, ex-TC Oma and typhoon Wutip) and in turn facilitated the influx of atmospheric moisture across the Maritime Continent region. Locations which would typically experience drier conditions due to the suppressing activity of the MJO, including parts of the Maritime Continent and tropical western Pacific regions, observed above-average rainfall during the past week.
As the westward-moving Rossby wave continues to track across the Maritime Continent in the coming days, there remains an increased chance of periods of above-average rainfall in some parts, including northern Australia. Once the Rossby wave moves out of the region in about a week's time, the suppressing influence of the MJO will resume as the primary climate driver across the region, and monsoon break conditions should return to northern Australia.
The next best chance for active monsoon conditions and above-average rainfall to develop across northern Australia is when the MJO pulse moves close to the Maritime Continent. Based on current climate models this is still more than two weeks away.
It's looking okay, but the pulse might just weaken as it comes to our shores.
EPS looks for a weakening to the COD in Phase 4.
Same with GEFS, but it is strong enough for the mean not to weaken fully.
RE: MJO model difference.
This has happened a lot during the NH winter, GEFS strengthening the MJO signal and EPS being more weaker, and GEFS (to a degree of surprise) seems to be winning a lot more than the EPS. The reality is we are still in a very Niño-esque state in terms of the tropical atmosphere.
It certainly has been a dry February in Melbourne. We've only had 18mm of rain with most of that falling in storms over one day.
The next few days look oppressive. High 30s for 4 days and nights not going any lower than 24.
Dislike .It's looking okay, but the pulse might just weaken as it comes to our shores.
EPS looks for a weakening to the COD in Phase 4.
Same with GEFS, but it is strong enough for the mean not to weaken fully.
RE: MJO model difference.
This has happened a lot during the NH winter, GEFS strengthening the MJO signal and EPS being more weaker, and GEFS (to a degree of surprise) seems to be winning a lot more than the EPS. The reality is we are still in a very Niño-esque state in terms of the tropical atmosphere.
Here's the latest pacific cross section - looks to be plenty of slosh to keep mixing it back to a warm neutral.
Some good amplitude showing on GFS 06z 11 & 15Mar (as does EC):Models suggesting a chance of some shortwave influence over the SE next week, namely Tuesday and a bigger signal appearing Friday through Victoria.
...But alas, I am not holding my breath.
To be bold, I like a little something significant for the Southern States around the 11-15th March (basically, on the next MJO pass) IMO.
I'm talking about the atmosphere, not the oceans. I think it is important to seperate the two concepts.Here's the latest pacific cross section - looks to be plenty of slosh to keep mixing it back to a warm neutral.
Meanwhile in the UK they're going through the hottest winter temperatures recorded, 21c "heatwave"
I just checked the monthly table for Canberra and it hasn't rained since 9 Feb other than a flukey event on Tuesday late arvo.
That is actually pretty amazing for Feb. This time last year most of the country was blanketed in snow.
Can someone tell me if I need to put snow chains on my 4WD to get to Perisher ? Also will I need alpine diesel ? Can I get good ski in - ski out accommodation?
Stay on topic.
Can someone tell me if I need to put snow chains on my 4WD to get to Perisher ? Also will I need alpine diesel ? Can I get good ski in - ski out accommodation?
Yes.
Can someone tell me if I need to put snow chains on my 4WD to get to Perisher ? Also will I need alpine diesel ? Can I get good ski in - ski out accommodation?
Yes.
And Jindabyne has some excellent ski in ski out accommodation given some observed wx events.
was just adding this in for more visual data on how strange this year has been.Autumn . Season of the Clipper. Coming soon
It will nice to see at least a bit of rain in Melbs next week.Autumn . Season of the Clipper. Coming soon
Yes. 32mm on 5 February and pretty much nothing since then. So dry ....
Some storms popping up out on the bay and near Geelong moving east.. stinking outside currently.
I am not hopeful to be honest. Very ridgy set up neck week IMO.
Last day of Summer was not unlike the rest of it. Sat out on the deck and watched lightning and some rain to the South of Thredbo.
We have had a proper Summer here in the South, albeit generally too dry across the paddocks.
Looking at the weather this evening with a glass of red....not a drop of rain to be had.
Autumn thread please!!!
Just came in from taking pics of the night sky and there were quite a few lightning flashes off to the east of Warburton, hopefully no new fires as a result
Spill the beans. Update your post with pics accordingly.
I think there was too much ambient light, but will have a closer look at them tomorrow.have BOM just given us some glimmer of hope on the 4 dayer for a short cool spell. The chart seems not the same as yesterday with the front coming up the side of the high.
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