The "ground cooling", ski season is almost here, Autumn weather banter thread.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well summer is done.
    Autumn has started with a bang, soaking rains for much of the south east.

    I've woken to pouring rains here in Melbourne. Big totals again in the north of the state. I can't help but think that trough is further south than the models all predicted?
     
  2. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    hmmm, its been a pretty cool summer so i guess there's less ground cooling needed before the snow starts sticking. sweet.
     
  3. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ground cooling is underway here in southern NZ too. Snow settled to around 1500 metres overnight and more is forecast over the next week.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Believe it or not, while Melbourne had very few extreme heat days (1 day over 40 and perhaps 6 others over 35), the average minimum temperatures were near 2 degrees above average. And maximum temperatures were also above average for summer.
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Big totals again in the northern central region of victoria overnight. Kyabram close to 90mm, Rutherglen close to 80mm after getting 150 or so earlier in the week.
     
  6. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meanwhile in Sydney there's no rain and patches of blue here and there. WTF?
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    All heading just south of you.
    IMO this system has tracked perhaps 100km further south than expected, I was not expecting much for Melbourne overnight yet it has rained fairly solidly since about 9 pm last night.
     
  8. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    heh, nice and warm but not hot, I used to hate the really hot ones when I was down there - I was referring to sydney though
     
    #8 piolet, Mar 1, 2012
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  9. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmm all 3 models have the trough moving north and producing big rains between 48-96h. Not sure if i beleive this scenario especially looking at the Sat loop. Then again they are showing the bulk of the rain today falling around Canberra and south so their predictions would seem plausible.
     
  10. Apresski

    Apresski Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    3.39 am CC, do you ever get any sleep [​IMG]
     
    #10 Apresski, Mar 1, 2012
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Too stressed out from dramas yesterday to sleep well! [​IMG]
     
    #11 Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012
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  12. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Umm...it is titled banter, so here is a bit

    Perhaps the ski areas could insert a few probes and update the ground temp as a precusor into the snow holding capacity through autumn's progress....joke. Ground cooling was a fantasy of those days in the 80s when I had to rely on printed press for weather and snow reporting, and the imagination was at work for this cooling as the progressive base building. Only to have that shattered with live updates where grass was dominant through to June and beyond at times, and the only real base was on my headphones.

    Love the autumn weather and colour. Was checking this video today I took driving into Braidwood a couple of years back with the coloured leaves on trees lining the highway approaching the town from the east. Cool vid with rich reds and golds....lasts about five kilometres uninterrupted at 105km/hr so it too looks sweet at double speed....approaching town at 210km/hr.

    Another thing to see during autumn is at a Kingsbury VC on Remembrance Drive...just south of Mittagong. There is a big field of huge red mushrooms / stools with flecks of white...an autumn thing, each May - well worth checking out. Also, Derrick VC with Liquidambers (sp) at Towrang Bridge, then Gurney VC at the northern tip of Lake George with an array of autumn colour.

    http://www.remembrancedriveway.org.au/driveway-map/default.asp?SECTION=SydneyCanberra
     
    #12 agentBM, Mar 1, 2012
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  13. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    agree with CC and Davidg , models are wildly different today, coming through more slowly and the heavier stuff on a wider arc , more west and south. Still impressive accumulations but over a much longer timeframe.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has adjusted according - now showing 30mm for Melbourne over the weekend.
    Canberra forecasts have backed away to just over 50mm until Sunday.
     
  15. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Davey Jones' death is sad for everyone
     
    #15 MisterMxyzptlk, Mar 1, 2012
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  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Tish boom
     
    #16 Donza, Mar 1, 2012
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Thought he died this morning.
     
    #17 Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012
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  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any word on road conditions from Sydney through to Jindabye today/tomorrow.
     
  19. PiniPowPow

    PiniPowPow One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    You may be struggling to get through Cooma. Not sure of another route.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Massive totals for last 24 hours in the NE of Vic. Most of the Vic northern Alps have had more than 100mm now. This is on top of similar totals earlier this week - this is all going to end up as run-off.
     
  21. markopolo

    markopolo Naughty Corner Resident Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wet season on the tip of cape York has been VERY wet, Weipa has seen a lot of rain and the Barra are lining up on the beaches just outside the Hay and Embley waiting to get in for a feast of Sex !! It could be a good season ! [​IMG]
     
    #21 markopolo, Mar 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah considering the main drag through town will be floodo...
     
    #22 Donza, Mar 1, 2012
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Rainfall for Saturday according to EC

    [​IMG]
     
    #23 Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012
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  24. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Nice...! Although the placement of the heavy rain varies between models.

    Some reasonable totals around East Gippsland as well.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think we'll have a pause in the rain now until late tomorrow where it starts again
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Compare the previous EC rainfall chart to what GFS (3pm) is showing.
    Pretty similar except, of course GFS shows a lot more rain.

    [​IMG]
     
    #26 Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And AXS 3-day has it all in central NSW.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3pm UKMet in line with GFS & EC.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    IMO ACCESS has it a little further north.
     
    #28 Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012
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  29. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    No warm temps at all next week for southern Vic, mid 20s at best.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interesting to see the total quantities of rain received in Victoria this week:

    [​IMG]

    Mt Buffalo 366mm [​IMG]
    Falls Creek 271mm
    Osbornes Flat 268mm
    Rutherglen 225mm
    Chiltern 298mm

    Lots of totals over 200mm
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60004.html

    Overlay that with what's expected tomorrow / Sunday:

    [​IMG]
     
    #30 Claude Cat, Mar 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next week's temps look very nice for early March. If they drop a bit more Easter could look very pretty.
     
  32. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Not a lot of rain around this morning, anywhere in Vic. We had about 3mm last night, but nothing special. Doesn't look as if much will happen yet.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    it's been pretty wet here since about 8am. First part of my ride was dry, but it's hosed down the 2nd half. 30km in pouring rain is not fun !!
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The big totals were in the west and NW of Victoria overnight. It looks to be filling in over the north and north east now.
     
  35. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    Which BOM station was that ?
     
    #35 PolePlant, Mar 3, 2012
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  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All over up in NSW i reckon except for a bit around Riverina.. looking at the satellite loop it looks like the cloud band got blown apart.
     
  37. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Maybe melb was warm. but Canberra which is close to the nsw resorts was very cool for summer!
     
  38. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Victoria overall -
    More relevant:

    Baw Baw had its record lowest summer mean daily maximum temperature: Mean daily maximum temperature for summer 2011-12 (14.4°C) Previous coolest 14.9 in 2004. Average mean 16.0

    Mt Hotham had its coolest summer mean daily maximum temperature in 10 years: Mean daily maximum temperature for summer 2011-12 (13.6°C) Previous coolest 13.4 in 2001. Average mean 15.2.

    Hotham also had its lowest summer mean daily minimum temperature for at least 10 years Mean daily minimum temperature for summer 2011-12 (5.9°C). Previous coolest 5.4 in 2001. Average mean 7.1.

    Falls Creek also had its coolest summer mean daily maximum temperature in 10 years: Mean daily maximum temperature for summer 2011-12 (15.5°C) Previous coolest 14.5 in 2001. Average mean 16.7

    Mt Buller had its lowest summer mean daily minimum temperature for at least 10 years Mean daily minimum temperature for summer 2011-12 (7.3°C). Previous coolest 7.2 in 2001. Average mean 7.8.
     
    #38 teckel, Mar 3, 2012
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
    #39 Claude Cat, Mar 3, 2012
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Soaking rains in (inner east) Melbourne this afternoon.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Next few hours will tell. Looks like it's smashing in to the SE & alps now.
     
    #41 Claude Cat, Mar 3, 2012
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #42 Claude Cat, Mar 3, 2012
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Essendon / St Kilda game at Wangaratta looks off, Essendon couldn't land one of its chartered planes at Wang, and the ground is flooding. Apparently very heavy rain up there now.
    [​IMG]
     
    #43 Claude Cat, Mar 3, 2012
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  44. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Rain has been relatively light out here most of the day, but still adding up. Latrobe Valley station up to 17mm, severe winds blown heaps of small branches down.
     
  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's rained all day in the southern Illawarra. Looks like it will continue all night - and most of tomorrow. Better stop next Saturday - it's our primary school fete.
     
  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    plane WTF? its only about 2hr by road
     
    #46 Snow Blowey, Mar 3, 2012
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  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Accommodation apparently impossible to get in town so the decision was made to fly up and down.
     
  48. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    I just had to be sure.
    Just that Melb Station is relative to nothing outside of the micro climate of CBD it resides at.
    To get anything indicative for actual Melb weather you need to use the stations E and W of the bay and I know that from doing Pole top shots for some years and sitting and waiting for prime conditions.
    Made the mistake of using Melb station a few times, then looked at where it is and that explains it.
    Its always hotter and wind not always true direction.

    See yourself here

    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/melbourne-observations-map.shtml

    Melb is nearly always hotter and stays warmer for longer as the rest cool.
     
    #48 PolePlant, Mar 3, 2012
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes that is generally understood.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Flood warnings in effect for Victoria as of 7am this morning.

     
    #50 Claude Cat, Mar 4, 2012
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