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The "ground cooling", ski season is almost here, Autumn weather banter thread.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS going for a cyclone late this week in the NW. EC has been hinting at it for a few days too.

    [​IMG]

    Potentially a 2nd one in the NT early next week

    [​IMG]

    ACCESS-T also shows a couple of potentials on Thursday.

    [​IMG]
     
    #101 Claude Cat, Mar 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC for the same period

    [​IMG]

    Doesn't have the 2nd cyclone forming like GFS.
     
    #102 Claude Cat, Mar 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could we see a shit loads more rain in the SE if there are two cyclones floating about up north?
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The models don't really show it at the moment. The rain from the cyclone in the NW looks to be tracking over eastern WA / western part of SA depending on the model.
    There's still lots of activity over the tropics, so there's still potential for the following week though.

    [​IMG]
     
    #104 Claude Cat, Mar 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has a more easterly track

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #105 Claude Cat, Mar 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Thursday is shaping up as somewhat wet in the SE.

    [​IMG]

    IMO 25mm across much of Vic, might get up to 50mm in the NE.
     
    #106 Claude Cat, Mar 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looks like warm today, warm tomorrow with a bit more wind before a fairly violent change Thursday arvo/evening.
     
  8. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Seems to me, though, that the other models aren't agreeing this morning.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS (as usual) goes for more rain. EC is less so.
     
  10. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS suggests later next week might have some ground cooling action.

    And one else care to add to the vibe.
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC has a cutoff...
    hmm interesting...
    not particulary cold mind you
    though the high following it has a winter shape about it
     
    #111 Donza, Mar 13, 2012
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  12. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The GFS freeze level chart has a very tight cold area coming in though. It's at the outer limits of the forecast at 180 hrs - but if that stays tight and comes through with the low - it might be a sprinkle at least ?

    Also Donza can you post some more pixs of the Jindy flood waters at JHP?
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    24th shows possibilities.

    [​IMG]
    276 hours out, so you know that's going to change.
     
    #113 Claude Cat, Mar 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
    Looking at boat ramp..at NYE. You can see the same trees
    [​IMG]
     
    #114 Donza, Mar 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3pm GFS CAPE and Li are showing plenty of activity for tomorrow afternoon for nearly all Victoria, eastern parts of SA and NSW.
     
  16. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    #116 loweee, Mar 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Rainfall expected by GFS (3pm) next few days.

    [​IMG]

    I'm still thinking GFS is slightly on the high side.
     
    #117 Claude Cat, Mar 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  18. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    The wife is competing in the Melbourne Ironman on the 25th March, along with another 2000 people...East link will be shut all day and parts of the nepean hwy...10 days out, any predictions on the weather? 3.8km swim off Frankston and the 180km bike ride on east link, and 42km run from Frankston to st kilda will sux arse if there is any wind...
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Too far out to be confident, GFS looks ok, perhaps a few showers, but not too bad. EC doesn't quite go out that far, but it's showing a potentially nasty low in the southern ocean on the Friday before.

    Check back in a few days time...
     
    #119 Claude Cat, Mar 14, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some storms north of the ranges and heading south, they will probably die out before reaching Melbz but it is good signs for instability tomorrow. Quite humid in Melb too.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    As I type that a proper supercell just near Kilmore erupts.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks to be dying as hits the outskirts of Melbourne.
     
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's a decent blob to the NE of Melb but there is a lot of noise being picked up by the radar as it's right on the range. I suspect the NE subs will get a few sprinkles tonight.

    I just went outside to water some plants and it feels stormy.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Lots lightning around. Both NE and SW of us. But looks like missing.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah breaking up as it crosses the range. Looks like ALCOA got smashed by a cell.
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Someone just lit the firecracker now the storms are caning central VIC.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Media tend to beat it up a bit.

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/wea...0315-1v5x8.html

     
    #127 Claude Cat, Mar 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks to be heading your way Verm.

    [​IMG]

    (will update)

    I'm yet to be convinced we'll see anything much out of this.
     
    #128 Claude Cat, Mar 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Directly at my inlaws...

    oh well damn shame
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shelby right it's going to just clip 'em.
     
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It'll give me a bit of show to our north but it's the line still in the West I am more excited about. Although I do agree with you CC that we wont see widespread massive totals, they will only be isolated. Just ran out of guts by the time it got to us, Adelaide was pumped yesterday.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like mid NSW coast going to get a bath from the weekend to mid next week.

    [​IMG]
     
    #132 Claude Cat, Mar 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Belting rain here now, it's intensified and lots of lightning around too.
     
  34. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Next Thursday, Friday first signs for me of an Autumn cold front.... Chance of some flakes if it holds and the trailing H stays in the sam posi.......
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Solid rain here, but not really belting down. Plenty of electrical activity though.
     
  36. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    #136 loweee, Mar 15, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Cold enough on GFS, IMO, but not much juice for the mainland. Tasmania should see highland snow.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #137 Claude Cat, Mar 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well I got 15mm out of last night, although I was sure I would get more at times it was quite heavy and lasted a good 3-4 hours, maybe longer. All the rain seems to be in the NE today, which is no good for those communities up there, they dont really need any more.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #139 Claude Cat, Mar 16, 2012
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  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Totals in the NE now >80mm in some parts. How would these areas be coping?
     
  41. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Yeah 39mm in Albury so far,has'nt really stopped since early this morning. Mt Hotham has had 59mm so the rivers might return to minor flood levels
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wednesday & Friday next week look interesting [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #142 Claude Cat, Mar 16, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sandy would enjoy that pressure.
     
  44. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    a dusting on higher peaks i suspect, i don't see 10cm in it but it'll be cold enough especially thurs night/fri morning.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good chance of being below zero at Perisher right on this time.
     
  46. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    almost a certainty you'd think verm... if it were a horse you'd put money on it.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might already have [​IMG]
     
    #147 Vermillion, Mar 16, 2012
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wednesday is looking like a strong chance, Friday even better, IMO.


    [​IMG]
     
    #148 Claude Cat, Mar 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  49. qwill

    qwill Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, it'll peter out and just tease us. 45mm of rain on the peaks if we're lucky.

    I'd even put money on that
     
  50. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    To me it looks as if Wednesday is more warm rain than anything. Most of it is expected to fall across the south at this stage, a bit of relief for those in the northeast of Vic.

    Friday looks cold but not enough moisture. Although a system like this in March seems to be a good sign [​IMG]
     
    #150 ice_man, Mar 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013