The "ground cooling", ski season is almost here, Autumn weather banter thread.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wednesday evening (actually looks like Thursday AM) has plenty of potential of being cold enough.

    [​IMG]

    Friday night GFS is showing a freeze level of around 1200 on the 9am GFS run

    [​IMG]

    Both systems the moisture appears to be pre- cold change, but Saturday morning is looking very cold (-4) at Thredbo

    http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Thredbo/long.html
     
    #151 Claude Cat, Mar 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    That's the feeling I was getting about Wednesday/Thursday. I just don't see the moisture being there for anything more than a dusting for that system. Friday may be a few cm.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm going to create a predictions thread for this one.
     
  4. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'd seriously gamble on the weather like that? Sheesh.
     
  5. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Alice Springs' March figures are running almost 4C below the LTA for maxima (and below average for minima too). Some inland cooling....
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's in preparation for the Australian 'lake effect' but over land.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Cool change has hit Melbourne. Quite warm at 6am this morning, temperature has dumped down to 16 and rain is moving through.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS shows something brewing around 4th of April. Too far out to have any confidence.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    10mm for melbourne this morning. More than I expected. Feels like winter out there.
     
  10. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Definitely wintery down in Inverloch. Only about 12 degrees, strong winds and plenty of rain.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Might just see a dusting late this afternoon.
     
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Almost Kutchan
     
    #162 Donza, Mar 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Baw Baw down to 1.3, but I think the moisture's gone now.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps just a dusting on the trees on the Baw Baw Summit cam that wasn't evident in the previous shot.
     
  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    that's charlie's doing , spraying around a bit of rapid shave for effect.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
    #166 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like he's been busier, the 4.30pm image shows even more in the trees up higher.

    [​IMG]
     
    #167 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  18. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A few patches visible on the Ben Lomond cam, too, I think.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Don't think Ben Lomond cam is a current picture.
     
  20. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw
    [​IMG]
    and 8mm of precipitation.. hmmm

    Mt Wellingrton
    [​IMG]
    and precipitation increasing
     
    #170 Majikthise, Mar 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Baw Baw got down to 1.0C at 3.45pm. It's bounced up a little since then.
     
  22. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    wow, thredbo AWS station is currently showing 8.7deg, with an apparent temp of -2.9. (winds of 52kph)

    thats a big difference!
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]


    Very nice sat piccie
     
    #173 Donza, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24. Portski

    Portski Addicted

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    Nice bands of cold air lining up to shuffle through.
     
    #174 Portski, Mar 22, 2012
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  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest BOM for NSW is negative. Down to 10% chance of snow. Anyone care to offer a differing view of the latest data?
     
  26. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    at best it was only going to be a dusting on higher peaks.... tassie OTOH
     
  27. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    The showers will be quite scattered in NSW Friday night sat morning. Plenty cold for snow above 1600m at some times but I donth think we are talking a big area covered in snow hence the 10% call. IMO
     
    #177 loweee, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This system was always going to be a Baw Baw, Tasmanian system. NSW will be in for just a dusting on the peaks.
     
  29. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    CC I'm heading to Baw Baw/St Gwinear area tomorrow for a day hike. Do you think we're in for a dusting, or more at BB?
     
  30. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Looks like the start of the prefrontal moisture hitting Mt Gambier now. That sattelite shows some nice cold air for mid march behind it.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I would be very surprised if you don't see some snow tomorrow.

    IMO 5cm perhaps a little more.
     
    #181 Claude Cat, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK, can someone who has an FI please tell me why Baw Baw? Is it just because it is further south and the moisture will run out?
     
    #182 cold wombat, Mar 22, 2012
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  33. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Well, that sounds good. Nothing skiiable though, eh? Alas... I shall leave the dusty skis at home and wait a few more months.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    with no base, it's not going to last long.
    Rug up, it will be cold.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Weather is coming from the SSW, and it's not going to penetrate too far north.
    Look at the GFS chart ...

    [​IMG]
     
    #185 Claude Cat, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks CC. The weather learning curve at the start is very steep. Been wanting to learn more for ages, but finally got the kick in the pants I needed to get moving...
     
  37. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Threadbo AWS currently /(1.47am TST - Thredbo Summer Time) feels like -13.7C

    I presume that the wind gusts up to 78kph and RH of 95%
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Hotham down to zero.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking a bit wet in the SE on Tuesday according to EC

    [​IMG]

    Not very cold though.

    GFS not agreeing yet.
     
    #189 Claude Cat, Mar 27, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yerk.... if only it were cold!
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9am GFS

    [​IMG]
     
    #191 Claude Cat, Mar 27, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure too high for anything cold but still good for rainfall. It's been cool down this way this week.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looking at 20mm for most of the SE for next Tuesday. Looks like the alps might get a bit of rain tomorrow morning too.
     
  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks great for surf.
    Perfect in fact.
    Pity swillnet and Carnstalwatch will inform the masses.
    I thought they were great sites for about 5 minutes.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are too busy baling (sp?) to surf buddy. Sit on a bale and watch it roll in.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Both GFS and EC have gone completely off this system overnight. Nothing there now.

    Perhaps something developing over Easter. Don't hold your breath.
     
    #196 Claude Cat, Mar 28, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Well this is boring... next week is looking like the kind of weather I wish we had at the start of March...
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Blocking setup that we usually get at this time. Very stable, very boring.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still trying for a system over Easter Sunday / Monday, EC having none of it, IMO.
     
  50. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i think april in sydney is locked in for an indian summer....
    Glorious day up here today.