Wednesday evening (actually looks like Thursday AM) has plenty of potential of being cold enough. Friday night GFS is showing a freeze level of around 1200 on the 9am GFS run Both systems the moisture appears to be pre- cold change, but Saturday morning is looking very cold (-4) at Thredbo http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Thredbo/long.html
That's the feeling I was getting about Wednesday/Thursday. I just don't see the moisture being there for anything more than a dusting for that system. Friday may be a few cm.
Alice Springs' March figures are running almost 4C below the LTA for maxima (and below average for minima too). Some inland cooling....
Cool change has hit Melbourne. Quite warm at 6am this morning, temperature has dumped down to 16 and rain is moving through.
Perhaps just a dusting on the trees on the Baw Baw Summit cam that wasn't evident in the previous shot.
wow, thredbo AWS station is currently showing 8.7deg, with an apparent temp of -2.9. (winds of 52kph) thats a big difference!
Latest BOM for NSW is negative. Down to 10% chance of snow. Anyone care to offer a differing view of the latest data?
The showers will be quite scattered in NSW Friday night sat morning. Plenty cold for snow above 1600m at some times but I donth think we are talking a big area covered in snow hence the 10% call. IMO
This system was always going to be a Baw Baw, Tasmanian system. NSW will be in for just a dusting on the peaks.
CC I'm heading to Baw Baw/St Gwinear area tomorrow for a day hike. Do you think we're in for a dusting, or more at BB?
Looks like the start of the prefrontal moisture hitting Mt Gambier now. That sattelite shows some nice cold air for mid march behind it.
OK, can someone who has an FI please tell me why Baw Baw? Is it just because it is further south and the moisture will run out?
Well, that sounds good. Nothing skiiable though, eh? Alas... I shall leave the dusty skis at home and wait a few more months.
Weather is coming from the SSW, and it's not going to penetrate too far north. Look at the GFS chart ...
Thanks CC. The weather learning curve at the start is very steep. Been wanting to learn more for ages, but finally got the kick in the pants I needed to get moving...
Threadbo AWS currently /(1.47am TST - Thredbo Summer Time) feels like -13.7C I presume that the wind gusts up to 78kph and RH of 95%
Pressure too high for anything cold but still good for rainfall. It's been cool down this way this week.
IMO looking at 20mm for most of the SE for next Tuesday. Looks like the alps might get a bit of rain tomorrow morning too.
looks great for surf. Perfect in fact. Pity swillnet and Carnstalwatch will inform the masses. I thought they were great sites for about 5 minutes.
Both GFS and EC have gone completely off this system overnight. Nothing there now. Perhaps something developing over Easter. Don't hold your breath.
Well this is boring... next week is looking like the kind of weather I wish we had at the start of March...