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The "ground cooling", ski season is almost here, Autumn weather banter thread.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Mar 1, 2012.

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  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wednesday evening (actually looks like Thursday AM) has plenty of potential of being cold enough.

    [​IMG]

    Friday night GFS is showing a freeze level of around 1200 on the 9am GFS run

    [​IMG]

    Both systems the moisture appears to be pre- cold change, but Saturday morning is looking very cold (-4) at Thredbo

    http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Thredbo/long.html
     
    #151 Claude Cat, Mar 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    That's the feeling I was getting about Wednesday/Thursday. I just don't see the moisture being there for anything more than a dusting for that system. Friday may be a few cm.
     
    #152 ice_man, Mar 17, 2012
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm going to create a predictions thread for this one.
     
    #153 Claude Cat, Mar 17, 2012
  4. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

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    You'd seriously gamble on the weather like that? Sheesh.
     
    #154 cold wombat, Mar 17, 2012
  5. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Alice Springs' March figures are running almost 4C below the LTA for maxima (and below average for minima too). Some inland cooling....
     
    #155 agentBM, Mar 20, 2012
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's in preparation for the Australian 'lake effect' but over land.
     
    #156 Vermillion, Mar 20, 2012
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Cool change has hit Melbourne. Quite warm at 6am this morning, temperature has dumped down to 16 and rain is moving through.
     
    #157 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS shows something brewing around 4th of April. Too far out to have any confidence.
     
    #158 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    10mm for melbourne this morning. More than I expected. Feels like winter out there.
     
    #159 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
  10. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Definitely wintery down in Inverloch. Only about 12 degrees, strong winds and plenty of rain.
     
    #160 Go Native, Mar 21, 2012
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Might just see a dusting late this afternoon.
     
    #161 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Almost Kutchan
     
    #162 Donza, Mar 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Baw Baw down to 1.3, but I think the moisture's gone now.
     
    #163 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps just a dusting on the trees on the Baw Baw Summit cam that wasn't evident in the previous shot.
     
    #164 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    that's charlie's doing , spraying around a bit of rapid shave for effect.
     
    #165 Majikthise, Mar 21, 2012
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
    #166 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like he's been busier, the 4.30pm image shows even more in the trees up higher.

    [​IMG]
     
    #167 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  18. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A few patches visible on the Ben Lomond cam, too, I think.
     
    #168 chriscross, Mar 21, 2012
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Don't think Ben Lomond cam is a current picture.
     
    #169 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
  20. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw
    [​IMG]
    and 8mm of precipitation.. hmmm

    Mt Wellingrton
    [​IMG]
    and precipitation increasing
     
    #170 Majikthise, Mar 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Baw Baw got down to 1.0C at 3.45pm. It's bounced up a little since then.
     
    #171 Claude Cat, Mar 21, 2012
  22. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    wow, thredbo AWS station is currently showing 8.7deg, with an apparent temp of -2.9. (winds of 52kph)

    thats a big difference!
     
    #172 gareth_oau, Mar 22, 2012
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]


    Very nice sat piccie
     
    #173 Donza, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24. Portski

    Portski Addicted

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    Nice bands of cold air lining up to shuffle through.
     
    #174 Portski, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest BOM for NSW is negative. Down to 10% chance of snow. Anyone care to offer a differing view of the latest data?
     
    #175 rocketboy, Mar 22, 2012
  26. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    at best it was only going to be a dusting on higher peaks.... tassie OTOH
     
    #176 Majikthise, Mar 22, 2012
  27. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    The showers will be quite scattered in NSW Friday night sat morning. Plenty cold for snow above 1600m at some times but I donth think we are talking a big area covered in snow hence the 10% call. IMO
     
    #177 loweee, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This system was always going to be a Baw Baw, Tasmanian system. NSW will be in for just a dusting on the peaks.
     
    #178 Claude Cat, Mar 22, 2012
  29. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    CC I'm heading to Baw Baw/St Gwinear area tomorrow for a day hike. Do you think we're in for a dusting, or more at BB?
     
    #179 stridercdh, Mar 22, 2012
  30. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Looks like the start of the prefrontal moisture hitting Mt Gambier now. That sattelite shows some nice cold air for mid march behind it.
     
    #180 loweee, Mar 22, 2012
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I would be very surprised if you don't see some snow tomorrow.

    IMO 5cm perhaps a little more.
     
    #181 Claude Cat, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

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    OK, can someone who has an FI please tell me why Baw Baw? Is it just because it is further south and the moisture will run out?
     
    #182 cold wombat, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Well, that sounds good. Nothing skiiable though, eh? Alas... I shall leave the dusty skis at home and wait a few more months.
     
    #183 stridercdh, Mar 22, 2012
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    with no base, it's not going to last long.
    Rug up, it will be cold.
     
    #184 Claude Cat, Mar 22, 2012
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Weather is coming from the SSW, and it's not going to penetrate too far north.
    Look at the GFS chart ...

    [​IMG]
     
    #185 Claude Cat, Mar 22, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

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    Thanks CC. The weather learning curve at the start is very steep. Been wanting to learn more for ages, but finally got the kick in the pants I needed to get moving...
     
    #186 cold wombat, Mar 23, 2012
  37. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Threadbo AWS currently /(1.47am TST - Thredbo Summer Time) feels like -13.7C

    I presume that the wind gusts up to 78kph and RH of 95%
     
    #187 gareth_oau, Mar 23, 2012
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Hotham down to zero.
     
    #188 Claude Cat, Mar 23, 2012
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking a bit wet in the SE on Tuesday according to EC

    [​IMG]

    Not very cold though.

    GFS not agreeing yet.
     
    #189 Claude Cat, Mar 27, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yerk.... if only it were cold!
     
    #190 Majikthise, Mar 27, 2012
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9am GFS

    [​IMG]
     
    #191 Claude Cat, Mar 27, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure too high for anything cold but still good for rainfall. It's been cool down this way this week.
     
    #192 Vermillion, Mar 27, 2012
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looking at 20mm for most of the SE for next Tuesday. Looks like the alps might get a bit of rain tomorrow morning too.
     
    #193 Claude Cat, Mar 27, 2012
  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks great for surf.
    Perfect in fact.
    Pity swillnet and Carnstalwatch will inform the masses.
    I thought they were great sites for about 5 minutes.
     
    #194 The Plowking, Mar 28, 2012
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are too busy baling (sp?) to surf buddy. Sit on a bale and watch it roll in.
     
    #195 Vermillion, Mar 28, 2012
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Both GFS and EC have gone completely off this system overnight. Nothing there now.

    Perhaps something developing over Easter. Don't hold your breath.
     
    #196 Claude Cat, Mar 28, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  47. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Well this is boring... next week is looking like the kind of weather I wish we had at the start of March...
     
    #197 ice_man, Mar 29, 2012
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Blocking setup that we usually get at this time. Very stable, very boring.
     
    #198 Claude Cat, Mar 29, 2012
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still trying for a system over Easter Sunday / Monday, EC having none of it, IMO.
     
    #199 Claude Cat, Mar 30, 2012
  50. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i think april in sydney is locked in for an indian summer....
    Glorious day up here today.
     
    #200 Majikthise, Mar 30, 2012
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