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The Japanese season 2010-2011 weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Dec 4, 2010.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weather for Japanese 2010-2011 season proper in here.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    And as requested, a few basics on snow in Japan:

    You don't need ANY low pressure for it to snow a lot in Japan!!!!!

    All you need is WIND from the right direction, and the "Lake Effect" will do the rest:

    [​IMG]

    If the wind is a northerly, then it's coming off Siberia, so it might be -20 to -30 degrees. It hits the Sea of Japan which is warm (+4to +8 degrees), and the interaction between cold air and warm water produces cloud, and in this case, lots of it.

    You can see on that map, that there is a cloudless gap just off the Asian coast.... this is where the cold air hasn't picked up any moisture yet. However, that is a classic sign that the Lake Effect is doing its thing!!!

    The cloud then hits the mountains, rises relatively quickly, and preciptiation results. On the other side of the mountains, there is no moisture left, so for example, Tokyo is in the "rain shadow". That's why I often say "northerly breeze and clear skies in Tokyo means dumping snow in the resorts of central Japan".

    You can ALSO see that central Japan gets more of its snow from the Lake Effect than Hokkaido does, because there is a wider expanse of sea to pick up that moisture. I reckon that central Japan gets maybe 80% of its snow from the lake effect, while Hokkaido maybe only gets 30%. However, Hokkaido gets a lot more of the northerly low pressure systems.[/quote]
     
    #1 Sandy, Dec 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looking like the goods IMO.
     
    #2 Sandy, Dec 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    Some good falls here tonight and next week should set us up for a Thursday or Friday opening.
     
  4. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Woke up this morning to about 7cm of snow, but still have my car up here . Forecast says it will be clear for next couple of days , hope so need to get it down....skidoo time.

    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Nozawaman, Dec 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Looks like fat wet flakes falling in Niseko now...
     
  6. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    "Still looking like the goods IMO."

    Do you mean both these dates Sandy?
     
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes of course!!!!
     
  8. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Excellent. Be nice to see some big fat snowmen in the forecast!
     
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Your car just looks so way, way down there below your place, unlike during the season!!!
     
    #9 Sandy, Dec 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looking very good too..me thinks

    especially for Honshu

    gee Fatboy cutting it fine looks fine for 48 hours from tomorrow then. i'd say solid snow onwards from late 7th december (my birthday... yippee)
    Thursday friday looks like a metre plus easy as
    then hokkaido will get some friday saturday....bit of rain following that...then something epic
     
  11. damian

    damian A Local

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    What elevation are you calling that for? Top of Happo perhaps 10cm on Thursday, that is what I am expecting.

    [I miss the old thread]
     
    #11 damian, Dec 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    what height is the norweigan plate we discussed a while back?
    to be honest the wind and pressure is the variable.. the moisture looks there too me. yet the wind will be west at first...what areas would cope more snow off a westerly?
    Access is progging a low of around 990 to form off in the sea of japan roughly centred off the Niigata coast.
    A little thing like that - spinning off the coast will only be a good thing for Honshu
     
    #12 Donza, Dec 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  13. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Donza links to charts which show a meter? I dunno if I'm seeing it ay
     
  14. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Well I hope we get some big stuff in the coming weeks. Starting to get a little nervous about the lack of cover in Niseko thanks to the deluge yesterday.

    Hopefully we'll get biblical like last years starter [​IMG]
     
    #14 seekingpow, Dec 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Combination of ACCESS, GFS and NOGAPS
    at 144 hours )friday youre looking at around 30-40mm of precip on the sea of japan coast-24 hours
    in my experience that is a decent amount of snow for sure..these sort of spinning top lows can nuke

    temp won't be an issue and the pressure will be quite low.
     
  16. damian

    damian A Local

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    Donza, I didn't understand the answer.

    What altitude? 100cm at 800m or 100cm at 1800m (or 2800m?). Very different predictions.
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Top of Happo- damien...
    but what i'm seeing is potential...moisture, pressure, temps.
    its a metre storm, its going to fall somewhere, be it myoko, hakuba, niigata, nozawa etc..
    you know as well as any some places get get 50cm over night...and other skunked
     
  18. damian

    damian A Local

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  19. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    My only concern is the fetch won't be long enough for the really cold air to hit the warmer water and then dump a lot of snow
     
  20. damian

    damian A Local

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    Where will the fetch start and end? (I'm not a hater)
     
  21. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO for good snows the fetch starts deep in Asia to pick up really cold air, which hits the warmer water in the Sea of Japan to dump lots of snow. If a low develops too close to Japan itself then the air is just whipped around from the north, but doesn't come from further in Asia and therefore is not real cold and does not produce lots of snow.

    I just don't like snow being produced from low pressure systems passing over the mainland, id rather a long cold NW wind hitting the Sea of Japan.
     
  22. damian

    damian A Local

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    I think all would agree with that.

    In this case that the fetch will not start far enough back to sweep over Siberia?

    I wonder of there are cases where the fetch starts way back in Siberia, but doesn't continue all the way to japan. I guess in that case, from Japan's perspective, it wouldn't be a fetch at all.
     
    #22 damian, Dec 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Temps looking better in Hokkaido from tonight according to freeze-forecast
     
  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very clear day around the Tokyo area today.

    I wouldn't call it cold though!!!!

    [​IMG]
     
    #24 Sandy, Dec 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Does the 8th still hold promise in your eyes Sandy?

    Going by conventional forecasts (mountain watch, wunderground) they don't seem to confident of a good week to get things really moving along.
     
  26. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Japanese never cease to amaze me with their penchant for surfing slop, but then they probably laugh at some of the snow we ride....

    Anyway, this is what I'm talking about....

    [​IMG]

    Forecasts will chop & change as they have been by the hour, but any day now Heinrich Von D will storm down out of the northwest on his white horse swinging his mighty double edged axe!!

    And this map is the best by far we've yet seen this 'winter', more than a week out it may be....
     
    #26 Rabid K9, Dec 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Except with the very strong winds with the storms we've just had, the surf was good for this part of Japan:

    [​IMG]
     
    #27 Sandy, Dec 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    Looking pretty moist along the sea of japan coast..cold too.
     
    #28 Donza, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not liking what is after it

    [​IMG]
     
    #29 smitty484, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No agreed MS.

    then I like what K-9 has posted
     
  31. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    lows doing funny things near the mainland - me no likey.
     
  32. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    (14th does look nice though). From the same chart in Rabid's post, it has the 15th showing the low moving SW across Hokkaido.....
     
  33. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Seeing a low's crossing the coast for this time of year in close succession.
    So from the above, could be be looking at rain after a dump (Rabid's post/Smitty's post) if this scnario eventautes? (I'm starting to get nervous about what Niseko conditions will be like on the 30th of December when I arrive).

    Looking at the snowjapan archives, this is the slowest start for some time. Marginally slower that last years but still quite a slow one getting any coverage at the village.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    Its a bit later on the European model.
    [​IMG]
     
    #34 Donza, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where are you seeing "rain after a dump", and when???
     
    #35 Sandy, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Isn't that a low on Smitty's chart for the 11th to the East of Hokkaido?
     
  37. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This one?

    There's a low off to the NE, then one to the west. Are you saying rain will come from the low to the NE of Hokkaido??
     
    #37 Sandy, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Sorry I have'nt had my coffee [​IMG]

    I was referring to the low to the West. Would the 'push' cold air or 'pull' warm air?
     
    #38 seekingpow, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends on where the low to the west ends up forming in the south and ends up tracking.
     
  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, it does both. It rotates anticlockwise (opposite to the southern hemisphere.... is that a source of confusion?), so it drags warm air north along the eastern flank, and cold air along the western flank. In this situation, there's no way you'd get "rain after a dump". You may get a dump after rain, however.

    In this case(if the pattern turns out that way), there is also a cold feed off the NE low, so the eastern flank of the western low wouldn't get too warm.

    It that scenario, the western low is far enough north to produce a good northerly fetch the next day or two afterwards, with substantial snow with it.....

    In fact, that pattern is absolutely ripe for the two lows to combine, possibly producing a big northerly fetch in the days following. I can'[t see too much wrong with that....
     
    #40 Sandy, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Thanks for the explanation Sandy.
    Looks to be an interesting couple of weeks on the horizon.
     
  42. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As I seem to have to say every year, it's only the 6th December, so don't worry too much!!!!!
    You can get 1.5m base in just 2-4 days in Japan, not 30-90 days like in Australia!!!! [​IMG]

    Start to worry when it's 28th December and no snow in Niseko!!!

    I'll be on the snow in central Japan around 3rd January, and I'm not the least bit concerned at this stage!!
     
    #42 Sandy, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    whats your take on lows born in the sea of japan similar to the one progged late this week Sandy?
     
  44. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    I arrived here on the 9th December last year, and this is what it was like....

    [​IMG]

    It's the 6th December today....

    [​IMG]

    14th December 2009
    [​IMG]
     
    #44 Nozawaman, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For me, the further south towards Korea, the worse....

    If it's south of Korea, it will rain for sure.

    If the centre is level with Hokkaido, it's usually ok, as it drags enough cold air to allow it to snow.

    I think the key is the air being dragged across the Kuroshio current. If the low is far enough south to drag air across the Kuroshio current, then the air will be substantially warmer than otherwise.

    You can see the Kuroshio current south of Japan, as the dark orange. See the differential in water temperature?
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    #45 Sandy, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Cool...

    If i recall correctly. That Christmas dump from 2007 wasit? that had FT on the roof shovelling snow came from a low born in the sea of Japan.?
     
  47. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Is there a site which offers useful radar & sat loops for Japan? (preferably with English)
    Be interested to track this weather pattern that is due to deliver some snow later today in Hokkaido.
     
  48. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #48 Sandy, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  49. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sandy i'm having troubles trying to not think there is much wrong with these charts. Too warm for my liking. (to the haters: no i'm not on the neg train, plenty of time for plenty of good snow falls, just talking about this one low pressure system)

    For those with WZ silver, copy and paste.

    http://data.theweather.com.au/access/ima...ia.mslp.192.png

    http://data.theweather.com.au/access/ima...ia.mslp.216.png
     
    #49 smitty484, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  50. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a long way out, but seems to make sense of Sandy's 'dump after rain' theory;


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #50 cin, Dec 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013