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The Japanese season 2011-2012 weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Dec 16, 2011.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In Yokohama this morning, it just has a feel that it could snow, although every once of logic says that it just shouldn't be able to.....

    i.e. freeze level should be 2000-3000m too high!!!!!!
     
  2. damian

    damian A Local

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    Snowing in Hakuba
     
  3. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good stuff!!!!!! But strange!!!

    The Hakuba valley and down to Omachi seems to be 3-4 degrees colder than it should be. All around Nagano and northern Niigata is warmer than that.

    Damian, do you know what the temperatures are higher up? (e.g. 1500m & 2000m?) Possible temperature inversion there?
     
    #1253 Sandy, Mar 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. randomlyred

    randomlyred First Runs

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    it's raining/snowing/sleeting all at the same time now, it can't make up its mind what it wants to do!
     
  5. damian

    damian A Local

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    Sandy - remember my readings are at 800m, so perhaps raining down in the lower area of Echoland? It rained for a while last night, turning to snow for 16cm of the highest density snow of the season (and of the last 5 years I have been measuring it!). 23mm of water producing only 16cm of snow - thats much less than 1:1 and gave us new snow with a density of 143kg/m3. New avalanche risk is now High.

    No inversion in the valley.
     
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmmm..... interesting.

    The Hakuba town weather station(703m) and Omachi(784m) have both been a degree either side of freezing since midnight.(Otari doesn't have that info) All other places around a 50km radiusa t similar elevation seem to be warmer.
     
  7. damian

    damian A Local

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    FWIW, which is likely very little, my wife drove from Hakuba to Nagano at 5am and said it was snowing nearly all the way in.
     
  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was 4 degrees in Nagano around that time. Through the hills could be codler though.
     
    #1258 Sandy, Mar 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I actually quite like the set up for Honshu past the 10th march
    could be some fun snowy weather with sunny breaks..
     
  10. damian

    damian A Local

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    I went as high at 2000m and it was raining lightly up there, +1.5C at noon. The rain became much heavier as you came lower though, with the thickest cloud bed being at about 1200m.
     
  11. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    Fine day up in Niseko with thickening high cloud. Got to -17 overnight in Kutchan but it's just over freezing now.
     
  12. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Light rain and windy this morning both easing this afternoon at Akakura
     
  13. damian

    damian A Local

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    For those who like to correlated weather with snowpack structure...

    The snowpack is a historical account of the weather. In Hakuba last week it rained and produced a crust, then it snowed and remained reasonably cold causing the new snow to be preserved and to a degree form loose poorly bonded crystals on shaded north aspects. This sat on top of the old rain crust and was last night buried with quite light snow at first, then progressively denser wetter snow, to the point of having totally wet heavy snow at the top. Today between 1600m and 1900m every small slope over 30 degrees on which I tried to trigger an avalanche, produced an avalanche. If I tried on a small slope, I got a small avalanche. If I went onto a bigger slope, I got a bigger avalanche. I left the meaningfully bigger slopes alone. Cortina and Tsugaike shut ski runs as a result of the widespread and very sensitive instability.

    Here is some poor footage I took by holding may camera as I traversed a very small slope.
    https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/n_AVlnRuPQAk6k7dqF9Gizq-4EXdkx8setWTBJrCwIk?feat=directlink

    All weather is interesting and the snow can change it's mood dramatically from day to day.
     
    #1263 damian, Mar 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  14. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    It's still a good indication. It doesn't take much presure to set off a slip. [​IMG]
     
    #1264 fletch, Mar 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  15. randomlyred

    randomlyred First Runs

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    Can someone with a belief in a higher being or something get rid of this rain?
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should ease up later today.
     
  17. damian

    damian A Local

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    Yes, sun coming out now in hakuba.

    That'll dry out the snow... won't it?
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    sure
    Meanwhile at Cortina [​IMG]
    LATEST SNOW REPORT
    Updated at 12:00pm, May.6

    Temperature: Top 12°C / Base (Hotel Green Plaza) 8°C
    North east wind, 1m/s
     
    #1268 Donza, Mar 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. damian

    damian A Local

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    Goes quiet in these threads when no major snow is forecast and no flights are about to be caught...

    Tenki wa tenki desu.

    We are a little ashamed to admit it, but Hakuba hit +14C this week, with few other quiet warm days either side of the spike.

    It has just started to snow lightly this morning as forecast, and getting winter-cold again, with reasonably regular snowfall for a few days

    I just look at snow-forecast.com, however earlier in the week this coming snow looked to favour Niseko, and mostly miss Hakuba. Those fortunes seem to have been reversed in the latest nearer-term forecast. But Just a sniff of snow in Niseko means boot deep in 24 hours (bastards). In the meantime, it looks like Nozawa is going to get a lot. Any reports from there?

    Sunday/Monday:

    [​IMG]

    That low is almost bringing Pacific warmth towards Hokkaido?
     
    #1269 damian, Mar 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  20. gibbsy

    gibbsy Addicted

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    Yeah I noticed things had gone a little quiet on here... Have a mate in Niseko at the moment- I think I jinxed his trip by lending him some googles for poor visibility/whiteout days. My bad.
    Have another mate who is heading over late next week(niseko- first snow trip there but many time Japan visitor) He's also a weather junky but more so with surf- I've directed him to this thread and have been looking for the posting that listed the URLs of weather sites for Japan but to no avail- Anyone point me in the right direction?
    And Damian, 14o? thats huge! would be almost thinking about vege garden time, non?
     
  21. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep looks like a good snowfall for pretty much the exact same dates as last year. Will certainly be a return to winter
     
  22. gibbsy

    gibbsy Addicted

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    Smitty do you have that list of the websites/forecast models, or the link for where to find it on the site here?
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeh....been thinking that for about a week
     
    #1273 Donza, Mar 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  24. randomlyred

    randomlyred First Runs

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    In hakuba right now and I've got to say, it hadn't impressed any of us very much here. We're thinking we might go to Hokkaido next year, but definitely not back to hakuba. Icy mornings and slushy mogully afternoons, not what you want from a Japan trip. Might get one day of good turns before we go back to aus [​IMG]
     
    #1274 randomlyred, Mar 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  25. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    How long are you in Hakuba for and are you riding resorts or backcountry?
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 points:

    1. Where have you been to at Hakuba?
    2. It's March.
     
    #1276 Sandy, Mar 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Moguls...Happo...next week looks epic btw
     
  28. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] definitely happo. that place breeds moguls faster than the outback breeds feral rabbits.
     
    #1278 smitty484, Mar 9, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  29. damian

    damian A Local

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    As a classic powder destination, probably all of Nagano and Niigata have been terrible for a week now, Hakuba certainly no exception. For reliable colder temps in March: Hokkaido, though they also warmed a little.

    Snowing wet stuff snow, not great. Next week is improving.

    And yes Happo = mogul hell.
     
  30. damian

    damian A Local

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    15cm at 800m in Hakuba in the last 24 hours. Unfortunately very dense: twice as dense as new snow in winter.
     
  31. damian

    damian A Local

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    A low thick cloud bed today in Hakuba, which dogged the resorts. Also a very high cloud layer as well. But in between it was mostly clear, yet protected from direct sunlight. Good skiing on ok 20-30cm deep dry-ish snow above 2000m today, great snow from 2500m, but avalanches being triggered. Nice day up there.

    I have to credit yr.no for very accurately forecasting 98% low clouds.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Go Norway... Mid winter returns to honshu this week...
     
  33. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You didn't see webberchoked's vids from nozawa by any chance?

    January. The mofo.

    That is all.
     
    #1283 benchives, Mar 10, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Disagree chives...best time for Japan is when its snowing...that can be ....anytime..plus sun is cool
     
  35. Morino

    Morino Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just wondering if you'd seen the reports from Niseko for this last week...

    - rain/sleet on Tuesday followed my mild temps to upper levels followed by icing up.

    If you'd gone to Hakuba this same week last year (when it was great conditions) and Niseko this week this year you'd be saying the same as above but in reverse.

    Anyhow, It's snowing pretty hard in Hakuba right now. The next few days are looking good
     
    #1285 Morino, Mar 11, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  36. Olgreg

    Olgreg One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I was gonna say, RR, you cant get away with saying that sort of stuff about hakuba vs niseko here.
     
  37. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Morino does have a point though.

    I'm suspecting RR spent a week in Hakuba in March. Spending a week on snow anywhere is a risk at any time of the season, but it's no secret that Honshu is much closer to the equator than most ski areas around the world. So when the sun gets out (especially in March) it can turn spring like pretty quickly in the resorts.

    Anyway this week and next week are looking pretty good for snow IMO. A return to winter-like conditions.
     
  38. damian

    damian A Local

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    15cm new snow in the last 24 hours at 800m in Hakuba, but quite windy.
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Cortina is shut shut shut...
     
  40. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    Must admit I haven't being paying much attention to the Cortina report, but the glide crack on Hiedayama-2 was in most of the reports I've glanced at.

    Idiot question: is that the death knell for that run or do they... fill in? Fix themselves somehow?
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I was wondering the same thing...
     
    #1291 Donza, Mar 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. Go Native

    Go Native One of Us

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    If it's anything like the glide cracks that form in Niseko in the Spring it's very unlikely to fill in. If anything it will probably continue to get larger.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    No wonder its windy

    ye gods
     
    #1293 Donza, Mar 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  44. damian

    damian A Local

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    I went out of the valley a little way and only up to 1000m where I was almost blown off a broad ridge (not even close, but it is fun to be in the scream like that). Dark moody and bruised clouds roaring in and lashing me with graupel that was up to 7mm in diameter. Then claps of thunder - at which stage I dropped off high ground. Skied 40cm of dense new snow mixed with graupel, had fun. Wild weather.
     
  45. JoeKing

    JoeKing Old n' Thrusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was going to ask you to go out and kick the webcams for me. All day just a white picture.
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Which way Damien.....? Past otari?...
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Btw...was at a beach one day when a guy was killed by lightening..I'm wary..no fun in open ground
     
  48. Mark102

    Mark102 A Local

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    The glide crack is actually gone!!! Went there today after Happo for lunch and a couple of small runs and there was a big wet slab avalanche sometime in the last week on that run. Massive ice chunks sitting down under the lift. I really really really would not want to ski that run at the moment.
     
    #1298 Mark102, Mar 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. Morino

    Morino Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bloody good day today. Probably 40cm or so nice fresh powder at Goryu by the afternoon. Cortina got about 20cm last night so it probably snowed more the southern end of the valley (more westerly wind than northerly.)

    Snowpack is very unstable - Theres a breakable crust over last weeks 20cm or so of wet snow with about 2-3cm of weak facets above it about 40cm below the fresh snow. The first half of the 40cm depositied in high winds last night so very coherent slab followed by the last 20cm of finer powder. Heavy loading from heavy snow all day too.

    Above about 1400m the breakable crust is a bit stronger but below that it's very weak and there were shooting cracks and easily set of slabs on any steep slopes and convex rollovers including in the trees.

    We still had a great day on safe terrain though!
     
  50. damian

    damian A Local

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    Not sure. I skied 40cm at 11am at 1000m north of Cortina. Raging northerly wind there as well.

    However having said that: the accumulation in Ochikura over 10 hours today was 20cm, and I didn't see that much come down north of Cortina during the same time.

    And yes, unstable. I've been tracking that facet formation in the previous thin cold snow on the warm crust for a few days now, first saw it here http://steepdeepjapan.com/diary/10-march-avalanches

    Tomorrow is not a big-lines day, unless you like gambling and often confuse luck with good decision making.
     
    #1300 damian, Mar 13, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013