The Japanese season 2012-2013 weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by fletch, Nov 23, 2012.

  1. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Hmm probably the colder temps with only about 2 rain afternoons thus far has saved Niseko's from recording a lower totals.
    [​IMG] Pic 360niseko.com
    Ticking away quite nicely with more on the way for the rest of the week. Fingers crossed.

    Next 7-Days
    Niseko - Japan 91 cm
    Whistler - Canada 36 cm
    Aspen Mountain - USA 31 cm
    Hakuba - Japan 31 cm
    Vail - USA 25 cm
    Park City - USA 23 cm
    Steamboat - USA 22 cm
    Snowbird - USA 21 cm
    Breckenridge - USA 20 cm
    Mammoth - USA 19 cm


    Source+mountainwatch.com
     
    #651 fletch, Feb 19, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  2. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    [​IMG]
     
    #652 fletch, Feb 19, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  3. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking forward to tonight's moisture! Although there has been a major downgrade on the Niseko 6 day forecast for tonight's moisture totals. Anybody care to take a punt at how much?

    Cheers!
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Nope
    Would never for Niseko
    for instance snowforecast predicts more moisture from southerly storms than it does from NW storms .. which is wack.
    I just use JMA
     
    #654 Donza, Feb 20, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quite frankly IMO, the days up until Monday next week looks to me like the "classic winter pattern", long missing for all of February, and more than half of January.

    As such, I'd be expecting 20-35cm every night at Niseko for the next 6 days.
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Concur

    Embedded NW stream
     
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's a fresh, cold wind out of the north this morning in Yokohama. A little cloud about, but it has the feel of a dump brewing in the mountains later today......
     
  8. skifahren

    skifahren First Runs

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    Plenty of snow for the north but how's it looking for Hakuba? Headed over on Sunday for a week.
     
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll be doing a forecast probably tonight for the next two weeks for central Japan (including Hakuba)

    The forecast looks good this week for a lot of snow, because of below:


    Also, looks like central Japan will get hammered IMO, with a huge dump of snow around Fri 1st, Sat 2nd, Sun 3rd March.
     
    #659 Sandy, Feb 20, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it looks quite grand for the next 5-6 days.
     
  11. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks guys, appreciate the updates.

    That feels about right here at the moment. Fairly chilly breeze up top, a few of the higher things on hold as a result.

    Looking forward to the next 6 days!
     
  12. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Started snowing here about 2.30 yesterday and hasn't stopped maybe 60 cms at 1100metres .

    [​IMG]
     
    #662 Nozawaman, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fresh northerly any Yokohama, crystal clear skies, must be snowing in the mountains.......
    Definitely the normal winter pattern has finally arrived!!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #663 Sandy, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Hakuba valley (route 148) web cams.

    Love these.


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #664 Donza, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks light.
     
  16. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Pic 360niseko
     
    #666 fletch, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  17. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Pic courtesy of 360niseko
     
    #667 fletch, Feb 22, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Getting a bit breezy up there over the last few days. Need the wind to drop so that the top half can open. Should be interesting when it does.

    6 day forecast still suggesting light snow each day, with a fair breeze. Not sure we'll get that drop in breeze before I head home.
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It seems that the normal winter northerly pattern has finally taken hold.

    IMO, it's possible that the period from 15th Feb - 15th March might end up being more productive from a dumping snow POV, than the period 15th Jan - 15th Feb.

    Here's how the next couple of weeks are shaping up in central Japan, IMO.



    23rd, Sat. Snow easing late in the day
    24th, Sun. Heavy Snow developing
    25th, Mon. Heavy Snow easing later
    26th, Tue. Clear
    27th, Wed. Wet snowfall later
    28th, Thu. Clear
    1st, Fri. Heavy Snow developing later. Windy
    2nd, Sat. Heavy snowfalls
    3rd, Sun. Nuking snow
    4th, Mon. Nuking snow
    5th, Tue. Snow easing
    6th, Wed. Clear
    7th, Thu. Heavy Snow developing later.
    8th, Fri. Nuking snow
    9th, Sat. Nuking snow
    10th, Sun. Nuking snow

    Hokkaido:
    Snow, apart from Weds 6th March!!
     
  21. SuskiQ

    SuskiQ Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ohhh ahhhh.... this changes my thinking. [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #671 SuskiQ, Feb 23, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  22. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Go you good thing Sandy ....we had about 50cms overnight and today will be good !!!!
     
  23. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Looks like the deep south are getting a good run over the next 2 weeks. Enjoy

    [​IMG]

    Pic by 360niseko.com
     
    #673 fletch, Feb 23, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It must be absolutely dumping in the mountain resorts of central Japan, because there's a STRONG northerly wind in Yokohama, clear as a bell(very clear stars), and absolutely bloody freezing!!!!

    [​IMG]
     
    #674 Sandy, Feb 25, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Epic 2nd half a of the season shaping up over there, after a little lull at the start of Feb.
     
  26. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    nah, he spared us the US and Canada depth comparisons!
    definite improvement
     
    #676 cin, Feb 25, 2013
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  27. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Your right. Crap again in Vail and Aspen and sour grapes all round.

    Next 7-Days
    Whistler - Canada 107 cm
    Niseko - Japan 75 cm
    Lake Louise - Canada 19 cm
    Big White - Canada 18 cm
    Hakuba - Japan 18 cm
    Silver Star - Canada 15 cm
    Sun Peaks - Canada 13 cm
    Fernie - Canada 12 cm
    Vail - USA 8 cm
    mountainwatch.com/
     
    #677 fletch, Feb 25, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 18cm at Hakuba is quite funny too....

    When you consider that last week, they predicted 31cm at Hakuba, and they got 90cm+.
     
    #678 Sandy, Feb 25, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    How accurate are the predictions for other countries, like the USA/Canada and Europe? Is it just Japan they are way out on?
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think for Japan in particular, their model doesn't read the moisture from the Lake Effect, so the amounts are usually under predicted
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Bro its as BS as mountainwatch is for Australia.
    It seriously makes me rage.
    Last year..in the space of 48 hours...for Thredbo it predicted..
    74 cm snow for three days
    100mm of rain
    then sun...
    then 10cm of snow

    It was cloudy from a SE wind.

    It has no meteorological background.
     
    #681 Donza, Feb 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks guys. I've always taken their predictions with a grain of salt for AUS and Japan, but I would have thought they would be able to forecast consistently for 1 area on Earth, it appears not.
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    If the model is FUBARRED...why would it
    The fact it gets posted on here gives me the poos too.. Its a rival commercial website to this one.
    Its funny... the season before last it was getting posted on FB willy nilly by resorts.. then they realised it was kinda crap..
    last year... Not so much.
     
    #683 Donza, Feb 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  34. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Yeah yeah heard it all before but meanwhile it keeps coming down.
    [​IMG]
    Pic 360niseko

    Sandy is right about the 'lake effect' but its modelling is usually correct for precipitation where the temp is below zero. Who would really believe a metre of snow for OZ alps when it 9 degrees and raining? Not really a moot point unless you have a deep grudge against other web sites.
     
    #684 fletch, Feb 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The snow figures for Hokkaido are closer to the mark because there is less lake effect and more northern low pressure systems, which are easier for their models to predict.

    However, for central Japan, there is about 800km of water, and around 600km of that produces a big lake effect. Often, the amount of snow is under predicted by 3x to 6x. I did a test earlier in the season at Nozawa Onsen, where 13cm was predicted, but 70cm fell.(more than 5x under predicted)
     
    #685 Sandy, Feb 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  36. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Key point Sandy. Hokkaido is pretty predictable and usually the same same. More southerly have the smack down effect that always makes things interesting.
     
    #686 fletch, Feb 26, 2013
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  37. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty

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    It's a crap model. Nuff said.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    From a rival website.
    almost as crappy as Frog...
     
    #688 Donza, Feb 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  40. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Now Frog too ? I would have thought it's a broad church. Gosh how dare anyone actually do anything around here. Bizarre turn of events.
    Anyway looks like the next 2 days should be good in the north.
    Cheers

    [​IMG]
    Courtesy of 360niseko
     
    #690 fletch, Feb 26, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like storm force winds in Hokkaido on Sat/Sun IMO. Along with a lot of snow.

    Windy for central Honshu on Saturday.
     
  42. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Hopefully from north west. Should be brutal.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    another hokkaido typhoon
     
  44. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong winds starting out from the south early morning in Hokkaido, then calm, then switching to the north by evening. Might be lucky with most of the storm force winds overnight Sat/Sun, but I think lifts are likely to be shut Sun morning.
     
    #694 Sandy, Feb 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yeah even when its Norwest the fetch is short..not useful.
     
    #695 Donza, Feb 27, 2013
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  46. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tokyo going for an annoyingly high top of 17 degrees today [​IMG]
    Currently Tokyo 9.3, Yokohama 12.3


    Nagano going for a top of 12 degrees. [​IMG]



    7am
    Nagano: 6.1
    Hakuba: -2.4
    Nozawa: 0.6 (Iiyama, 15km from Nozawa is 4.8)
    Sekiyama(Myoko): 10.0 !
    Yuzawa: 0.8
    Takada(on the coast at 13m): 0.6
    Itoigawa(on the coast at 10m): 9.8
     
    #696 Sandy, Mar 1, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  47. BobGnarly

    BobGnarly One of Us

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    -3 and light wind/snow here in rusutsu atm but it feels much much colder than -3
     
  48. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    6 degrees here and just started to sprinkle some raw snow. Sure I heard some thunder too. Should start snowing later this arvo.
     
  49. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    Raining now. Moderately.

    This morning was Australia-ish. Warm, slushy with the occasional icy surprise.
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Raw snow?
    [​IMG]
     
    #700 Donza, Mar 1, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013