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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by fletch, Nov 15, 2014.
Not a bad start with 12 cm yesterday and 18 cm today.
Please indicate the location.
I love your ruler, no matter where you put it.
Mid level at Hirafu. 700 mtr above sea level.
Looks more like somewhere in the village, <200m ASL. Respect.
Yeah probably. Cant remember..........but will find out.
Why are their high pressures blue and their low pressures red? Grrr.
I like tomorrow for snow in honshu, then hokkaido on wednesday.
Low in the Sea of Japan early next week looks like rain.
" 0.5cm of fresh snow has fallen in the last 24hrs in Hirafu Village. At 7:30 today the temperature was -2°C. "
via niseko 360.
0.5cms would be an 'epic' day at Sun Peaks.
Aussie dump, though that would equate to 5cm at Thredbo
another shot of Hirafu today.
Enough on the ground for lift to start turning this weekend?
they may be running but i bet a few ppl hit the bottom..
I read the season at shiga kogan started today with one lift & one course open to (only) skiers
Yes, It's started!
Heard rumours that Goryu and Happo were thinking of opening this weekend but may be ruled out by the upcoming mild spell..
Falls Creek would get the 7news chopper crew to do a story.
Stay on topic
GFS looks like some potential for Hokkaido Tuesday IMO
Hirafu opening postponed
I can't remember if last year was the same?
Dunno. Swedes were skiing good snow early dec last year but mid dec was sunny. (Niseko)
Ok, it's time for some snow predictions!!!!!!
We've had a little snow so far, and it's turned warmer right now.
HOWEVER, I can see the first potential big cold outbreak for Japan coming in. Like the last few months since August, everything seems to have been happening 2-3 weeks early.
Long range forecast: (IMO)
Dec 5th: Heavy snow developing down to 500m
Dec 6th: Heavy snow down to 800m
Dec 7th: Snow easing
Dec 8th: Snow redveloping
Dec 9th: Snow down to 700m
Dec 5th: Heavy snow developing down to 0m
Dec 6th: Heavy snow down to 0m, windy
Dec 7th: Light snow down to 0m
Dec 8th: Snow redeveloping
Dec 9th: Snow down to 0m
That would be awesome! Enough snow to play with the new snowblower but not enough to really inconvenience us.
Sitting here, watching cricket, drinking Coopers, 30+ degrees- and I can smell the pow in your forecast Sandy.
Aw shucks, it's the fan
Here's why the JMA long range forecasts don't mean much:
Looks really bad, right? Yesterday was 19.1 in Tokyo. The average so far for the month is 18.0 degrees, while the long term mean is about 17.2 for the whole of November.
If you look at the actual temps for 22 & 23, and add the forecast for 24-28, you get an average of 16.65
It takes the mean for this month down to about 17.6, so the mean goes down to not far off the long term(and if it's 15 & 15 on the 29 & 30th, it right on the long term). If today doesn't reach the forecast 18 degrees (it's a little bit chilly right now) and only gets to 16, then it's not reflected in the forecast chart above.
And also, what does the chart actually mean? e.g.
We often get charts that show probability:
30% lower than average
40% higher than average
So it looks bad, because the highest probability(40%) shows higher than average temperatures, while the others show 30%. But it also shows that the probability is 60% that it will be average or below average.
So personally, I take little notice of these charts!!!!
I love statistics - you can make them mean what ever you like.
So is what does normal actually mean? Is it an average over a period of time? How many years? Is it adjusted annually etc.And is above normal 0.5, 0.1, 1 degree above normal?
I gave up drinking Coopers two weeks ago.Very sad after 25 years.
snow from the 2nd in Hokkaido
Just coopers or beer full stop.
Stay on topic.
GFS looking promising from the 1st this morning.
Maybe a bit on the 1st, but the 5th looks like it could be stronger.
-6 in hirafu this morning and dropping.
Hirafu will be too warm until late on Dec 1, after which we should see a lot of snow
yeah i am just revising that opinion after a look at snowatch..
i think you are right. @Wardy
why can't i edit my post ?
jma says maybe snow tuesday or wednesday but still not very cold.
My vibe was off the mark for my earlier prediction but next week continues to look the goods.
Looking the goods come December 1st.
Mt Fuji looks magnificent this morning, after two days of colder temperatures and rain.
The snow line was probably up around 2500 my last weekend, but now it looks like around 1500 my or less
Still looking good IMO, but earlier!!!!
Dec 2nd: Heavy snow developing down to 500m
Dec 3rd: Snow down to 900m
Dec 4th: Heavy snow down to 300m
Dec 5th: Heavy snow down to 300m
Dec 6th: Snow easing
Dec 7th: Clear
Dec 8th - 14th: Mild
Dec 15th: Snow developing
Dec 2nd: Heavy snow developing down to 100m
Dec 3rd: Heavy snow down to 0m
Dec 4th: Heavy snow down to 0m
Dec 5th: Snow easing
Dec 6th: Clear and cold
Dec 7th-8th: Clear
Dec 9th - 10th: Clear and cold
Dec 11th - 12th: Mild
Dec 13th: Heavy snow developing
Dec 14th-15th: Snow
Like very much
JMA are on board as well
Yesterday was clear and I could see it from on the train. It looked amazing.
Already colder at Myoko this morning than yesterday.
thanks @Sandy u made me very happy...
looking at charts for early next week and WOWWWWW. It's on.