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The Japanese snow season 2014-2015 weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by fletch, Nov 15, 2014.

  1. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Not a bad start with 12 cm yesterday and 18 cm today.
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please indicate the location.
     
  3. Olgreg

    Olgreg One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I love your ruler, no matter where you put it.
     
  4. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Mid level at Hirafu. 700 mtr above sea level.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Looks more like somewhere in the village, <200m ASL. Respect.
     
  6. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Yeah probably. Cant remember..........but will find out.
     
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Why are their high pressures blue and their low pressures red? Grrr.
     
  8. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    I like tomorrow for snow in honshu, then hokkaido on wednesday.

    Low in the Sea of Japan early next week looks like rain.
     
  9. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    " 0.5cm of fresh snow has fallen in the last 24hrs in Hirafu Village. At 7:30 today the temperature was -2°C. "

    via niseko 360.

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    0.5cms would be an 'epic' day at Sun Peaks.
     
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  11. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    :clap:
     
  12. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Aussie dump, though that would equate to 5cm at Thredbo :out:
     
  13. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL
     
  14. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    another shot of Hirafu today.

    [​IMG]
    via rhythm
     
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  15. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Enough on the ground for lift to start turning this weekend?
     
  16. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    they may be running but i bet a few ppl hit the bottom..
     
  17. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    fletch likes this.
  18. Morino

    Morino Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, It's started!

    Heard rumours that Goryu and Happo were thinking of opening this weekend but may be ruled out by the upcoming mild spell..
     
  19. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    Falls Creek would get the 7news chopper crew to do a story.
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic
     
    freddy and fletch like this.
  21. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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  22. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    GFS looks like some potential for Hokkaido Tuesday IMO
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hirafu opening postponed
     
  24. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    I can't remember if last year was the same?
     
  25. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dunno. Swedes were skiing good snow early dec last year but mid dec was sunny. (Niseko)
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok, it's time for some snow predictions!!!!!! :D

    We've had a little snow so far, and it's turned warmer right now.

    HOWEVER, I can see the first potential big cold outbreak for Japan coming in. Like the last few months since August, everything seems to have been happening 2-3 weeks early.

    Long range forecast: (IMO)

    Central Japan:
    Dec 5th: Heavy snow developing down to 500m
    Dec 6th: Heavy snow down to 800m
    Dec 7th: Snow easing
    Dec 8th: Snow redveloping
    Dec 9th: Snow down to 700m

    Hokkaido:
    Dec 5th: Heavy snow developing down to 0m
    Dec 6th: Heavy snow down to 0m, windy
    Dec 7th: Light snow down to 0m
    Dec 8th: Snow redeveloping
    Dec 9th: Snow down to 0m
     
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  27. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That would be awesome! Enough snow to play with the new snowblower but not enough to really inconvenience us.
     
  28. Olgreg

    Olgreg One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sitting here, watching cricket, drinking Coopers, 30+ degrees- and I can smell the pow in your forecast Sandy.
    Aw shucks, it's the fan
     
  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's why the JMA long range forecasts don't mean much:

    [​IMG]

    Looks really bad, right? Yesterday was 19.1 in Tokyo. The average so far for the month is 18.0 degrees, while the long term mean is about 17.2 for the whole of November.
    If you look at the actual temps for 22 & 23, and add the forecast for 24-28, you get an average of 16.65
    It takes the mean for this month down to about 17.6, so the mean goes down to not far off the long term(and if it's 15 & 15 on the 29 & 30th, it right on the long term). If today doesn't reach the forecast 18 degrees (it's a little bit chilly right now) and only gets to 16, then it's not reflected in the forecast chart above.


    And also, what does the chart actually mean? e.g.
    We often get charts that show probability:
    30% lower than average
    30% average
    40% higher than average
    So it looks bad, because the highest probability(40%) shows higher than average temperatures, while the others show 30%. But it also shows that the probability is 60% that it will be average or below average.


    So personally, I take little notice of these charts!!!!
     
  30. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I love statistics - you can make them mean what ever you like.

    So is what does normal actually mean? Is it an average over a period of time? How many years? Is it adjusted annually etc.And is above normal 0.5, 0.1, 1 degree above normal?
     
  31. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I gave up drinking Coopers two weeks ago.Very sad after 25 years.
     
  32. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    snow from the 2nd in Hokkaido
     
  33. mannyk

    mannyk One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just coopers or beer full stop.:eek:
     
  34. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic.
     
  35. mannyk

    mannyk One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    :thumbs:
     
  36. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looking promising from the 1st this morning.
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe a bit on the 1st, but the 5th looks like it could be stronger.
     
  38. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    -6 in hirafu this morning and dropping.

    (via 360)
     
  39. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Hirafu will be too warm until late on Dec 1, after which we should see a lot of snow
     
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  40. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah i am just revising that opinion after a look at snowatch..

    i think you are right. @Wardy
     
  41. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    My vibe was off the mark for my earlier prediction :) but next week continues to look the goods.
     
  43. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Looking the goods come December 1st.
     
  44. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mt Fuji looks magnificent this morning, after two days of colder temperatures and rain.
    The snow line was probably up around 2500 my last weekend, but now it looks like around 1500 my or less
     
  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looking good IMO, but earlier!!!! :D

    Central Japan:
    Dec 2nd: Heavy snow developing down to 500m
    Dec 3rd: Snow down to 900m
    Dec 4th: Heavy snow down to 300m
    Dec 5th: Heavy snow down to 300m
    Dec 6th: Snow easing
    Dec 7th: Clear
    Dec 8th - 14th: Mild
    Dec 15th: Snow developing

    Hokkaido:
    Dec 2nd: Heavy snow developing down to 100m
    Dec 3rd: Heavy snow down to 0m
    Dec 4th: Heavy snow down to 0m
    Dec 5th: Snow easing
    Dec 6th: Clear and cold
    Dec 7th-8th: Clear
    Dec 9th - 10th: Clear and cold
    Dec 11th - 12th: Mild
    Dec 13th: Heavy snow developing
    Dec 14th-15th: Snow
     
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  46. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Like very much :)
     
  47. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    JMA are on board as well
     
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  48. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterday was clear and I could see it from on the train. It looked amazing.

    Already colder at Myoko this morning than yesterday.
     
  49. freddy

    freddy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    thanks @Sandy u made me very happy...

    :cheers:
     
  50. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    looking at charts for early next week and WOWWWWW. It's on.