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The Japanese Snow Season 2015-2016

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 25, 2015.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    I need to go clean myself up after seeing this thing of beauty.
     
  3. BMT

    BMT Early Days

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    Ah but it gets better! What you do then ??? LOL
     
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  4. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    6.4 degrees in Yokohama overnight, raining, strong northerly wind, but not super cold. I haven't looked, but must be big wrap on that low pressure trough....
    Definitely late autumn weather, rather than winter.....
     
    fletch likes this.
  5. Tonester

    Tonester One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    happy happy pow pow :woohoo::woohoo:
     
  6. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    It has dropped 5 degrees from the village to here , sitting on about 5 ATM with a bit of wind and rain .
     
  7. BMT

    BMT Early Days

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  8. BMT

    BMT Early Days

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    should be a can change !
     
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Change? What change? :p ;)

    Posted 3 days ago:
    ;)
     
  10. BMT

    BMT Early Days

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    All models change over time... a projection today for 10 days into the future is subject to change! Let's face it models are based on a theoretical understanding of what might happen not what will happen . Hence my comment that the projection could change and the cold air may not descend over central Japan. I hope this is not the case but I have been watching these models for some years and note that they do change and what looks good today can dissipate into nothing the next day.
     
  11. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    IMO still looking very good for Honshu - much of this period though is a bit too westerly for optimum Honshu conditions
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. BMT

    BMT Early Days

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    Agreed and it appears as though the period after looks exciting as well ... but only time will tell ... as long as the cold is there in January I will be very happy!
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Earlier this week, the snow on Mt Fuji was just at the top, so maybe down to 3000m or so, but this morning, it's probably all the way down to 2000m or bit less!!!!!
     
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  14. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Sandy has your view changed on Honshu over the next 10 days?
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
     
  16. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Starting to look wintery
     
  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not really. Still looks warmish around the 1st-3rd, cooler on the 4th, and colder on the 5th for a few days.
     
  18. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that not just a little bit epic for Hokkaido?
     
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  19. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The positioning of the low would pleasingly suck long cold stuff from Siberia in theory
     
    #19 MisterMxyzptlk, Nov 27, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2015
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  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It seems that many more people are scrutinising the weather in November this year!!! I can't recall this level of activity nor excitement in previous year in these threads!!! ;)

    In spite of what things may look like, the average temperatures (for example), are starting to look closer to the normal range for November, in Tokyo, Kutchan (Niseko), with perhaps Nagano being a fraction higher. We'll know more at the end of November.

    In the mean time, there's no need for panic, as the first good snow in Hokkaido always seems to start the last two weeks in November, and in central Japan between the 10th-20th December.

    (it's still only November!!!! ;) )
     
  21. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Yes it would because of the longer flows from the west. I'm more interested in Honshu as that's where I ride
     
  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Normal for late November.

    What we want in winter is NO well positioned LOW sucking cold air off Siberia, we want a well positioned HIGH doing that.
     
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  23. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And this is why we have you as our man in Tokyo!
    To correct novice opinions like mine
     
  24. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, as much snow as that low would deliver, I'm guessing it would be Wind Hold Central for lifts in Hokkaido?!?
     
  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have a look at this, taken form the Japan Weather Tutorial thread:
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    What we don't want:
    A low in the Sea of Japan drags warm air up the eastern flank of the low, making it warm and producing rain. we get snow afterwards, but it makes the base bullet proof until it snows a lot.

    [​IMG]


    I'll find a better example later, but this is more like want we want:

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, often the case.
     
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  27. telenomore

    telenomore One of Us

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    Furano on the ground update. Its sleeting and wet and I am very happy about that. Recent years we rarely get a good wet base here. Usually get dry snow from the get go and it stays cold and the bushes dont get pummelled and the dry snow scrapes off too easily to expose small rock on the piste. This year it is looking like a perfect season start. 40cm the other day, wet and compacted today, with the good stuff coming again tonight and next week. Just on lifts @Undies , nothing running yet in Hokkaido so no wind hold issues, although lots of weather warnings about gale force winds on the local media through today and into tomorrow morning. Scheduled start is tomorrow for a few places including Furano, Rusustsu and Niskeo, but raining over Niseko way at the moment so they have put back opening till 1 Dec. Furano Prince side should open tomorrow though (28th Nov), depending on the wind, which is meant to be abating.
     
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  28. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Appears to be sleeting at higher altitudes of resorts in Hakuba & Nozawa
     
  29. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    Must be
    :fishing:
    Dumping in the valley.
     
  30. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. BMT

    BMT Early Days

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  32. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mostly, it's not nice!! ;)

    Every time we get a low pressure trough through the Sea of Japan or central Japan, dragging up warm air and rain on its eastern flank, it trashes the off piste areas until it can get covered up with 50cm+ of snow (you can feel the frozen rain soaked chunks underneath)

    ... but it's November, and snow/rain/snow/rain is good for building the base in the off piste areas, flattening bushes, sasa grass, and jungle, to make the off piste good later on!! :D
     
  35. BMT

    BMT Early Days

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    What I meant is a nice site ! Yes the low pressure cells coming up from the south are a menace ... but as you say Sandy it is early days...
     
  36. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    :D :thumbs:
     
  37. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Maybe 5cms
     
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  38. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Cautiously he says...... Looking good for the start of the early season Nozawaman?
    Is it too early to say whether we will be able to ski the lower beginner slopes in Nozawa from the 24th Dec?
    We just had our AirBnB host cancel our new years onwards accommodation in Tokyo (1 month out) so madly scrambling for alternatives. Something about "due to previous guests", so I can only imagine.....
     
  39. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I don't quite know how to interpret your comment but I assume you're being a trolling smartass
     
  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's 4 weeks away....
    On the balance of previous seasons, there will be snow on the lower slopes of Nozawa.
     
  41. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Thanks Sandy.
    Just a bit to eager I guess.
    Have been watching the the forecasts, 528 freezing level, windty, snow.com forecasts creep up day by day.
    Looking good up till the 8th at the moment from my limited knowledge but of course your right....
    Currently we can only go on weight of averages and hope.
    As you say it is still November:cool:
     
  42. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    I am the wrong person to ask Brad .... I just give a few live updates .
     
  43. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    Your post.- Appears to be sleeting at higher altitudes of resorts in Hakuba & Nozawa
    Fact - it was dumping down snow to the valley floor in Hakuba
    My post - :fishing:
    As it is quite easy to see what is going on live in the world wide web I foolishly believed you may have been fishing but it seems your post was actually real. I am very sorry to have upset you (unless of course you are trolling me now which means you got me. Touche).

    (I don't troll but I can't say I am not a smartass)
     
    #43 TJ, Nov 28, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2015
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  44. almontyrat

    almontyrat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please keep the prickly comments to a minimum.
    It's not too hard to check. The bridge near Tsugaike at Hakuba:
    [​IMG]

    From the webcams thread:
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/japan-webcam-thread.63386/
     
  46. Morino

    Morino Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, definitely snowing in both the valley (about 15cm at the station at 20cm at the bottom of the resorts) and more from mid resort up on the resorts(maybe 30cm on top of the 15cm from before). Enough so that Hakuba Goryu and Happo both opened yesterday!

    I went to Happo - It definitely wasn't dry powder, more like soft whipped cream on creme brulee but still soft and fun. Only the panorama run was open but hardly anyone was there so the soft stuff on the sides stayed fairly untracked through the afternoon. Not a bad first day!

    Friends went to Goryu and said it was fun, although only the top run was open. Tsugaike opened one course too (hananoki)

    The snow at the bottom of the mountain is going to be wiped out quickly in the next week but hopefully the nice wet base from mid station up will survive until the next wave of snow on the 4th.

    Here are some pics from yesterday




     

    Attached Files:

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  47. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    IMO Honshu still looking good Friday & Saturday.
    The wind tending back to a more westerly after which would still benefit Hokkaido.

    Edit: Some areas in Honshu like Hak could benefit still from the westerly as its very cold.

    Staying cold for Honshu though IMO
     
    #47 seekingpow, Nov 30, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2015
  48. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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  49. BMT

    BMT Early Days

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    Hmm YrNo is forecasting some good snow for Hakuba but then is proging warm temps of around 11c for the 14 -15 ... GSF seems to agree with a low bringing warm air from the south east. To me (and with little long term knowledge) looks a bit like a slow start and rather mild... makes me think I should have booked to stay up in Furano ... I only hope that it does turn and gives us all the goods!
     
  50. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    What are your dates? I have seen Hakuba go from grass to a 1.5M base in 3 days in late December

    Slightly warmish temps after an initial dump are good this time of year for base consolidation