The season seems to be up and running in Hokkaido, so it's time for the Japanese snow season thread. Here is the preseason one: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/the-coming-japanese-snow-season-2015-2016.72236/page-5 Much colder in central Japan today, and looks like snow up in the resorts over the next few days.
6.4 degrees in Yokohama overnight, raining, strong northerly wind, but not super cold. I haven't looked, but must be big wrap on that low pressure trough.... Definitely late autumn weather, rather than winter.....
It has dropped 5 degrees from the village to here , sitting on about 5 ATM with a bit of wind and rain .
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...slp&runtime=2015112612&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=561 GSF is showing a significant cold spell descending across most of Japan especially from 6 - 12 December. I know that this change but it does look really good ... Up north it looks like epic powder conditions
All models change over time... a projection today for 10 days into the future is subject to change! Let's face it models are based on a theoretical understanding of what might happen not what will happen . Hence my comment that the projection could change and the cold air may not descend over central Japan. I hope this is not the case but I have been watching these models for some years and note that they do change and what looks good today can dissipate into nothing the next day.
IMO still looking very good for Honshu - much of this period though is a bit too westerly for optimum Honshu conditions
Agreed and it appears as though the period after looks exciting as well ... but only time will tell ... as long as the cold is there in January I will be very happy!
Earlier this week, the snow on Mt Fuji was just at the top, so maybe down to 3000m or so, but this morning, it's probably all the way down to 2000m or bit less!!!!!
Not really. Still looks warmish around the 1st-3rd, cooler on the 4th, and colder on the 5th for a few days.
It seems that many more people are scrutinising the weather in November this year!!! I can't recall this level of activity nor excitement in previous year in these threads!!! In spite of what things may look like, the average temperatures (for example), are starting to look closer to the normal range for November, in Tokyo, Kutchan (Niseko), with perhaps Nagano being a fraction higher. We'll know more at the end of November. In the mean time, there's no need for panic, as the first good snow in Hokkaido always seems to start the last two weeks in November, and in central Japan between the 10th-20th December. (it's still only November!!!! )
Yes it would because of the longer flows from the west. I'm more interested in Honshu as that's where I ride
Normal for late November. What we want in winter is NO well positioned LOW sucking cold air off Siberia, we want a well positioned HIGH doing that.
Yeah, as much snow as that low would deliver, I'm guessing it would be Wind Hold Central for lifts in Hokkaido?!?
Have a look at this, taken form the Japan Weather Tutorial thread: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ What we don't want: A low in the Sea of Japan drags warm air up the eastern flank of the low, making it warm and producing rain. we get snow afterwards, but it makes the base bullet proof until it snows a lot. I'll find a better example later, but this is more like want we want:
Furano on the ground update. Its sleeting and wet and I am very happy about that. Recent years we rarely get a good wet base here. Usually get dry snow from the get go and it stays cold and the bushes dont get pummelled and the dry snow scrapes off too easily to expose small rock on the piste. This year it is looking like a perfect season start. 40cm the other day, wet and compacted today, with the good stuff coming again tonight and next week. Just on lifts @Undies , nothing running yet in Hokkaido so no wind hold issues, although lots of weather warnings about gale force winds on the local media through today and into tomorrow morning. Scheduled start is tomorrow for a few places including Furano, Rusustsu and Niskeo, but raining over Niseko way at the moment so they have put back opening till 1 Dec. Furano Prince side should open tomorrow though (28th Nov), depending on the wind, which is meant to be abating.
Check out the cloud starting to stream, and the spin of that little low...... http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...828&height=800&number_of_images_to_display=24
You can see the warmth that is bringing the Hokkaido rain at the moment: https://www.windyty.com/?temp,44.559,149.678,2
Mostly, it's not nice!! Every time we get a low pressure trough through the Sea of Japan or central Japan, dragging up warm air and rain on its eastern flank, it trashes the off piste areas until it can get covered up with 50cm+ of snow (you can feel the frozen rain soaked chunks underneath) ... but it's November, and snow/rain/snow/rain is good for building the base in the off piste areas, flattening bushes, sasa grass, and jungle, to make the off piste good later on!!
What I meant is a nice site ! Yes the low pressure cells coming up from the south are a menace ... but as you say Sandy it is early days...
Cautiously he says...... Looking good for the start of the early season Nozawaman? Is it too early to say whether we will be able to ski the lower beginner slopes in Nozawa from the 24th Dec? We just had our AirBnB host cancel our new years onwards accommodation in Tokyo (1 month out) so madly scrambling for alternatives. Something about "due to previous guests", so I can only imagine.....
It's 4 weeks away.... On the balance of previous seasons, there will be snow on the lower slopes of Nozawa.
Thanks Sandy. Just a bit to eager I guess. Have been watching the the forecasts, 528 freezing level, windty, snow.com forecasts creep up day by day. Looking good up till the 8th at the moment from my limited knowledge but of course your right.... Currently we can only go on weight of averages and hope. As you say it is still November
Your post.- Appears to be sleeting at higher altitudes of resorts in Hakuba & Nozawa Fact - it was dumping down snow to the valley floor in Hakuba My post - As it is quite easy to see what is going on live in the world wide web I foolishly believed you may have been fishing but it seems your post was actually real. I am very sorry to have upset you (unless of course you are trolling me now which means you got me. Touche). (I don't troll but I can't say I am not a smartass)
Kirroro are running three lifts today apparently and from the state of the roofs, it looks like they have had a good top up over night. http://www2.kiroro.co.jp/snow/gelande/eng.html?_ga=1.20449469.48249498.1448655149
Please keep the prickly comments to a minimum. It's not too hard to check. The bridge near Tsugaike at Hakuba: From the webcams thread: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/japan-webcam-thread.63386/
Yep, definitely snowing in both the valley (about 15cm at the station at 20cm at the bottom of the resorts) and more from mid resort up on the resorts(maybe 30cm on top of the 15cm from before). Enough so that Hakuba Goryu and Happo both opened yesterday! I went to Happo - It definitely wasn't dry powder, more like soft whipped cream on creme brulee but still soft and fun. Only the panorama run was open but hardly anyone was there so the soft stuff on the sides stayed fairly untracked through the afternoon. Not a bad first day! Friends went to Goryu and said it was fun, although only the top run was open. Tsugaike opened one course too (hananoki) The snow at the bottom of the mountain is going to be wiped out quickly in the next week but hopefully the nice wet base from mid station up will survive until the next wave of snow on the 4th. Here are some pics from yesterday
IMO Honshu still looking good Friday & Saturday. The wind tending back to a more westerly after which would still benefit Hokkaido. Edit: Some areas in Honshu like Hak could benefit still from the westerly as its very cold. Staying cold for Honshu though IMO
Nice cloud formation on the Annupuri Cam http://www.mountainwatch.com/images/LiveStills/Niseko-Annupuri/LiveStill.jpg If you're quick...
Hmm YrNo is forecasting some good snow for Hakuba but then is proging warm temps of around 11c for the 14 -15 ... GSF seems to agree with a low bringing warm air from the south east. To me (and with little long term knowledge) looks a bit like a slow start and rather mild... makes me think I should have booked to stay up in Furano ... I only hope that it does turn and gives us all the goods!
What are your dates? I have seen Hakuba go from grass to a 1.5M base in 3 days in late December Slightly warmish temps after an initial dump are good this time of year for base consolidation
