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The Japanese Snow Season 2015-2016

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 25, 2015.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    more snow coming
     
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yah but at this stage it's just top ups for the piste.

    I see a few ski hills in Fukushima are closing up this weekend, some of them up to 3 weeks earlier than normal.
     
  3. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saw some very sad pictures of Listel on facebook. :cry:
     
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  4. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow-forecast predicting 91cm Tue -> Sat at Shiga Kogen Yakebitaiyama, at the bottom (Prince Hotel West) !!!!

    This is obviously based on the northerly flow from the current low pressure trough. Their forecast was reasonable last week based on a similar trough. (but still screws up based on "Lake Effect" snow)

    It's brought 89mm of rain here in Yokohama since 3am.
     
  5. BobGnarly

    BobGnarly One of Us

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    Yesterday 21°
    Today 12°
    It all adds up to catastrophic losses around here.
     
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  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it even worth skiing again over there this season bob? My bro said he's not going to bother in Aizu again this season. Plenty of places closing up after this weekend. Takayama (Gifu) plum blossoms almost a month ahead of 'normal'.
     
  7. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Anyone know why this season was so bad in Honshu this season?
    Warm sst?
     
  8. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    el nino might have something to do with it... I may be wrong though
     
  9. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    It just seemed that even then there was a n nw flow it wasn't strong enough to push inland far enough.
    Something must be the cause of that?
     
  10. BobGnarly

    BobGnarly One of Us

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    Well I'll be out there for these next few days with decent amounts of snow forecast but it's not exactly getting the adrenaline pumping tbh ;)
    Spring touring options are pretty limited also.
     
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  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The general thought was that El Nino makes it warmer in central Japan and colder in Hokkaido. However, Hokkaido started out very warm in December.

    Central Japan relies mainly on "Lake effect snow" from a northerly wind to produce snow. This effect relies on lower cloud moving across the Sea of Japan and orographic lift when it hits the mountains.

    In places like Europe and N America, there is a reliance on jetstreams to bring suitable weather systems that create the right conditions for snow.
    One thing I DID notice during this Japanese season in central Japan, was that the Subtropical Jetstream was further north than usual, while the polar jetstream was further south. IMO these jetstreams rather than producing the right conditions for snow, are actually DISRUPTIVE for the persistent northerly flow. As a result, we have gotten more westerlies(which do not penetrate as far inland), along with upper level lows that turn into surface level lows when they hit the sea.
    In my view, the "southern" systems have followed the the path of the subtropical jetstream, while the lows in the Sea of Japan have followed the polar jetstream.
    e.g.
    Cloud following the subtropical jetstream:
    [​IMG]
     
  12. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I know this is a thread on the weather in Japan but I think this is related.In Darwin,northern Australia this is our third bad wet season on a row and I think the worst.Rainfall way down and only one monsoon burst for the entire wet.So far.Been bloody horrible.I think its all interrelated,the weather around the planet seems to be getting more extreme.We have not had one cyclone this wet,highly unusual.
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    El Nino is characterised by a SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) of less than around -15 over a consistent period of some months.
    The SOI is the ratio of pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. In this case, less rain means the pressure is higher in Darwin, which gives us SOI of less than -15
    The SOI cycles, and when it turns towards El Nino, you get what you have been seeing in Darwin.
     
  14. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    So many lows this season tracking over central Honshu. Warm beginnings, then cold and snowy for 24-48 hrs as the back end of the low brings north-westerly winds. N-NW winds didn't persist long however, so resorts further inland suffered IMO as it generally raked the coast.
     
  15. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    So will next year automatically be a La Nina year?Or is a normal season neutral that is between El Nino and La Nina.And if it is La Nina will that mean muchos yuki for Honshu?
     
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  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The normal state of affairs is a SOI between -8 to +3, so it's neither El Nino or La Nina.
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Wet snow up high at Hakuba
    around .5 ish degrees in valley
    good hot choc day

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temperatures heading towards freezing at sea level on the Japan Sea side, and some resort bases already getting snow.
    The main rain bands are still to the west, so coupled with expected freezing temperatures already on the "warm" eastern side of the low, this could bring substantial snow across wide areas. This is not "lake effect" snow, so inland penetration of cloud will not be a problem.

    Tokyo has already dropped from overnight temperatures of 15 degrees down 8 degrees at midday. IMO, there's a chance of snow in Tokyo overnight.
     
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah its one of those systems that could clog roads IMO.
     
  20. BobGnarly

    BobGnarly One of Us

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    5/10cm of shitty wet snow was all we got here.
    Stopped snowing around sun down.
    Looks all fizz atm
     
  21. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    About 2 degrees too warm to have covered a wide area with snow. The next couple of days look cold, but not so much lake effect IMO, because the winds don't look strong enough. Places nearest the coast will do best out of it IMO, but wouldn't think it will be huge.

    An unstable weak low passing south of Tokyo tomorrow may still bring snow, however.
     
  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much seems to be happening in the resorts of central Japan this morning...

    Meanwhile, temperatures dropping in and near Tokyo, could be snow later. Probably already snowing in Hachioji (NE suburb of greater Tokyo)
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its snowing
     
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  24. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowed overnight here as well.
     
  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not snowing in Tokyo/Yokohama, and maybe not expected, but it's been raining steadily all day.

    It doesn't look like it's cold enough, but it's got that chilly feeling like a snow night....
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Next week looking quite nice
     
  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Freeze levels look like being above 2000m until early Saturday (rain Fri/Sat), and then above 800-1000m on Sunday. About 400m by Monday.
    Best place to minimise the wetness: Shiga Kogen.

    Reasonable snow looks like moving in by Thursday.
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yes good friday
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Charts looking very tidy
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not good for tomorrow though!!
    But Thursday from about midday in central Japan (depending on location & elevation. e.g. Shiga Kogen would be ok from lifts open) looks good until Saturday/Sunday
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No. Tomorrow is ugly
     
  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    After a little rain in the afternoon at Shiga Kogen, there's been a dusting of snow this morning.
     
  33. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Niseko has 14 metres ..... according to Skipress ?????
     
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  34. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only 14? Geez, they must be under-reporting.
     
  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another dusting of snow at Shiga Kogen this morning.... Not enough to cover the ice.... And with colder temperatures today, it should be icier than yesterday
    Along with patches of dirt in the Hoppo / Higashitateyama areas, the conditions are very Aussie like!
     
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  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah same in hakuba.
    Cold wind
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of the smaller resorts packed up for the season yesterday, how are the bigger ones doing?
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Happo...ssobusy.
    Solid frozen long weekend groomers
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Supertrail-like?
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not quite that bad..but cloud is socked in
     
  41. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some snow overnight but disappearing here fast.
     
  42. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was nice today!!! Hard pack early, softened in the sun, nice corn snow and almost like Aussie slush, but too cold for that.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yeah similar at Hakuba
    cold cold and crunchy.
    around 3 in the valley at the moment with a strong wind
    is this spring?
     
  44. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got up to -4 at Shiga Kogen, and hardly any wind
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little bit of snow to most resorts overnight. Raining in Hakuba valley by the looks of things this morning.
     
  46. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was woken this morning by snow sliding of the roof. Was not much but it was snow. All the new stuff is now gone from here though.
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Snowing well in hakuba
    Just a bit warm in the valley.
     
  48. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing again here as well. Not really settling at my place but I am well below the resorts. mmm tomorrow might be the day for my last foray onto the slopes.
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Socked in.
    Powder day tomorrow
     
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  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    How much they expecting?