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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Nov 25, 2015.
more snow coming
Yah but at this stage it's just top ups for the piste.
I see a few ski hills in Fukushima are closing up this weekend, some of them up to 3 weeks earlier than normal.
Saw some very sad pictures of Listel on facebook.
Snow-forecast predicting 91cm Tue -> Sat at Shiga Kogen Yakebitaiyama, at the bottom (Prince Hotel West) !!!!
This is obviously based on the northerly flow from the current low pressure trough. Their forecast was reasonable last week based on a similar trough. (but still screws up based on "Lake Effect" snow)
It's brought 89mm of rain here in Yokohama since 3am.
It all adds up to catastrophic losses around here.
Is it even worth skiing again over there this season bob? My bro said he's not going to bother in Aizu again this season. Plenty of places closing up after this weekend. Takayama (Gifu) plum blossoms almost a month ahead of 'normal'.
Anyone know why this season was so bad in Honshu this season?
el nino might have something to do with it... I may be wrong though
It just seemed that even then there was a n nw flow it wasn't strong enough to push inland far enough.
Something must be the cause of that?
Well I'll be out there for these next few days with decent amounts of snow forecast but it's not exactly getting the adrenaline pumping tbh
Spring touring options are pretty limited also.
The general thought was that El Nino makes it warmer in central Japan and colder in Hokkaido. However, Hokkaido started out very warm in December.
Central Japan relies mainly on "Lake effect snow" from a northerly wind to produce snow. This effect relies on lower cloud moving across the Sea of Japan and orographic lift when it hits the mountains.
In places like Europe and N America, there is a reliance on jetstreams to bring suitable weather systems that create the right conditions for snow.
One thing I DID notice during this Japanese season in central Japan, was that the Subtropical Jetstream was further north than usual, while the polar jetstream was further south. IMO these jetstreams rather than producing the right conditions for snow, are actually DISRUPTIVE for the persistent northerly flow. As a result, we have gotten more westerlies(which do not penetrate as far inland), along with upper level lows that turn into surface level lows when they hit the sea.
In my view, the "southern" systems have followed the the path of the subtropical jetstream, while the lows in the Sea of Japan have followed the polar jetstream.
Cloud following the subtropical jetstream:
I know this is a thread on the weather in Japan but I think this is related.In Darwin,northern Australia this is our third bad wet season on a row and I think the worst.Rainfall way down and only one monsoon burst for the entire wet.So far.Been bloody horrible.I think its all interrelated,the weather around the planet seems to be getting more extreme.We have not had one cyclone this wet,highly unusual.
El Nino is characterised by a SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) of less than around -15 over a consistent period of some months.
The SOI is the ratio of pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. In this case, less rain means the pressure is higher in Darwin, which gives us SOI of less than -15
The SOI cycles, and when it turns towards El Nino, you get what you have been seeing in Darwin.
So many lows this season tracking over central Honshu. Warm beginnings, then cold and snowy for 24-48 hrs as the back end of the low brings north-westerly winds. N-NW winds didn't persist long however, so resorts further inland suffered IMO as it generally raked the coast.
So will next year automatically be a La Nina year?Or is a normal season neutral that is between El Nino and La Nina.And if it is La Nina will that mean muchos yuki for Honshu?
The normal state of affairs is a SOI between -8 to +3, so it's neither El Nino or La Nina.
Wet snow up high at Hakuba
around .5 ish degrees in valley
good hot choc day
Temperatures heading towards freezing at sea level on the Japan Sea side, and some resort bases already getting snow.
The main rain bands are still to the west, so coupled with expected freezing temperatures already on the "warm" eastern side of the low, this could bring substantial snow across wide areas. This is not "lake effect" snow, so inland penetration of cloud will not be a problem.
Tokyo has already dropped from overnight temperatures of 15 degrees down 8 degrees at midday. IMO, there's a chance of snow in Tokyo overnight.
Yeah its one of those systems that could clog roads IMO.
5/10cm of shitty wet snow was all we got here.
Stopped snowing around sun down.
Looks all fizz atm
About 2 degrees too warm to have covered a wide area with snow. The next couple of days look cold, but not so much lake effect IMO, because the winds don't look strong enough. Places nearest the coast will do best out of it IMO, but wouldn't think it will be huge.
An unstable weak low passing south of Tokyo tomorrow may still bring snow, however.
Not much seems to be happening in the resorts of central Japan this morning...
Meanwhile, temperatures dropping in and near Tokyo, could be snow later. Probably already snowing in Hachioji (NE suburb of greater Tokyo)
Snowed overnight here as well.
Not snowing in Tokyo/Yokohama, and maybe not expected, but it's been raining steadily all day.
It doesn't look like it's cold enough, but it's got that chilly feeling like a snow night....
Next week looking quite nice
Freeze levels look like being above 2000m until early Saturday (rain Fri/Sat), and then above 800-1000m on Sunday. About 400m by Monday.
Best place to minimise the wetness: Shiga Kogen.
Reasonable snow looks like moving in by Thursday.
Yes good friday
Charts looking very tidy
Not good for tomorrow though!!
But Thursday from about midday in central Japan (depending on location & elevation. e.g. Shiga Kogen would be ok from lifts open) looks good until Saturday/Sunday
No. Tomorrow is ugly
After a little rain in the afternoon at Shiga Kogen, there's been a dusting of snow this morning.
Niseko has 14 metres ..... according to Skipress ?????
Only 14? Geez, they must be under-reporting.
Another dusting of snow at Shiga Kogen this morning.... Not enough to cover the ice.... And with colder temperatures today, it should be icier than yesterday
Along with patches of dirt in the Hoppo / Higashitateyama areas, the conditions are very Aussie like!
Yeah same in hakuba.
Lots of the smaller resorts packed up for the season yesterday, how are the bigger ones doing?
Solid frozen long weekend groomers
Not quite that bad..but cloud is socked in
Some snow overnight but disappearing here fast.
Was nice today!!! Hard pack early, softened in the sun, nice corn snow and almost like Aussie slush, but too cold for that.
yeah similar at Hakuba
cold cold and crunchy.
around 3 in the valley at the moment with a strong wind
is this spring?
Got up to -4 at Shiga Kogen, and hardly any wind
A little bit of snow to most resorts overnight. Raining in Hakuba valley by the looks of things this morning.
Was woken this morning by snow sliding of the roof. Was not much but it was snow. All the new stuff is now gone from here though.
Snowing well in hakuba
Just a bit warm in the valley.
Snowing again here as well. Not really settling at my place but I am well below the resorts. mmm tomorrow might be the day for my last foray onto the slopes.
Powder day tomorrow
How much they expecting?