The Japanese snow season 2017-2018 Weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Oct 29, 2017.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    Well the latest typhoon is belting southern Japan again, with larger rain total.

    However, looks like some snow on Monday below 1000m in Hokkaido, so it's time to start the Japanese snow season 2017-2018 Weather thread.


    [​IMG]

    Current situation:
    [​IMG]

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    LINKS
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    JMA historical snow data(to compare current and average snow depth for a particular day)
    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/

    Long range models pressure & thickness:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...pcpn&runtime=2016112218&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=228

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html

    Long range, various:
    Freezing levels
    TropicalTB
    WindyTy
    WeatherOnline


    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=sfcmslp&rh=2016112412&fh=0&r=as&dpdt=

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~hakim/tropo/tropo.html


    JMA historical data:
    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/
    Translation:
    https://translate.google.com.au/tra...ww.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/&prev=search

    Jetstream info:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=uv200

    GFS runs for 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z. ("z" is Greenwich mean time, London)
    At this time of year, Japan is 9 hours ahead of "z".

    Ryan Maue's plots
     
    #1 Sandy, Oct 29, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2017
    nfip and Tanuki like this.
  2. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    The rain hasn't been super heavy here in Yokohama, but we've still had 74mm today. And 57mm in Tokyo (with 42.5 since 8am), so that's 483mm so far in October for Tokyo. There's a realistic possibility of cracking 500mm for the month!!
     
    Tanuki likes this.
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,763
    Likes Received:
    2,904
    This would be Sandy's good work from last year.
    Add Ryan Maue's plots and you are good to go.
     
  4. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    Done!!!! :D
     
    Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    Ok, so it's p*ssing down in Yokohama now.
    For October, up to 5pm:

    Tokyo: 491mm. Only 42mm from 2nd place!
    Yokohama: 495mm. Meanwhile, Yokohama has already reached it's 2nd highest October precip on record, behind 593.5mm in 1991. Previous 2nd place was 485mm in 1945.
     
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    October total.
    6pm:
    Tokyo: 504.5mm.
    Yokohama: 513.5mm.

    Heaviest rain about to hit!!
     
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    Ok, so at 8pm, we have:
    Tokyo: 529.5mm. Tokyo within 4mm of 2nd all time for October.... but the rain is almost gone!! (total today 103mm)
    Yokohama: 542mm. Total today 123.5mm
     
  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    Rain is gone!!!
    Tokyo: 531.5mm. Tokyo within 2mm of 2nd all time for October(total today 105mm)
    Yokohama: 544mm. Total today 125.5mm
     
  9. Gregah

    Gregah Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    40
    Apols if missed but was wondering @Sandy (and other Jap weather watchers) if you place much store in the 'El Nino = above avg snow season' theory? And related, have previous above avg snow years that have coincided with declared El Niño's had lead-ins like this years (mega October rain etc)?
     
  10. Gregah

    Gregah Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    40
    Whoops. Make that La Niña...
     
  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    Some people make that connection with La Nina, but statistically, there's not so much evidence. Much stronger correlation with lower season and El Nino.
    I'll look at the "wet October" idea.... ;)
    However, the rain totals often have to do with how many direct hits we get from typhoons. But this October had a lot of rainy days.
     
    Gregah likes this.
  12. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,385
    Likes Received:
    876
    Snowing in places in northern Honshu.
     
    Dumph and Gregah like this.
  13. Dumph

    Dumph Active Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2015
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    48
    I can remember you also mentioning that there was a correlation with good winters and the average (high) temperature in Tokyo over the summer. Does this still stand and how was the summer this year?
     
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    This August was firmly in the "bad" zone, but the whole summer was strange....
     
  15. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,385
    Likes Received:
    876
    End of next week looks very interesting at this stage.
     
  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,763
    Likes Received:
    2,904


    Yeah nice period of snow coming up next Friday-Saturday, wait a few days to verify.
     
    Wardy likes this.
  17. dcx3

    dcx3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2015
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    0
    I know its a long way out but from the 14th of November onward is looking good! could we see a season starting on time for a change? :p
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    "On time".... I don't even know what that means!!!! ;)

    I always assume that "on time" for central Japan is any time before 20th December with cover down to 400m. Early is any time before 10th in my book!!
     
  19. telenomore

    telenomore Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2010
    Messages:
    602
    Likes Received:
    553
    Do you mean Honshu? or Hokkaido? There are big variations between locations both within Japan and within specific areas (i.e., within Honshu, Hokkaido etc), but Ive never seen a season not start late November/early December in Furano, and variations through Honshu as well. As per @Sandy Mid to late December I would say is pretty much on time and November is early in most parts of Japan.
     
  20. dcx3

    dcx3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2015
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    0
    haha yes that's what I mean by on time :p
     
  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,763
    Likes Received:
    2,904
    nfip, Froff Life, bondibob and 4 others like this.
  22. ju87

    ju87 Just Registered

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2017
    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    4
  23. telenomore

    telenomore Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2010
    Messages:
    602
    Likes Received:
    553
    WTF, Hokkaido where I am had a normal winter. What part of Hokkaido are you referring to, are you referring to snow depth or fresh top ups and were you here all season. There are vast differences between the coastal resorts and the interior and the temporal fluctuations through the season. Furano, Asahi Dake, Tomamu, Kamui, all good last season with great early starts and normal seasonal falls and variations along the way. Skied powder from November through to March. The only time I found fresh powder hard to get at the resort was mid January when the low hanging fruit at Furano got skied out so we went off piste or over to Kiriro and had metres of fresh either way.
     
  24. ju87

    ju87 Just Registered

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2017
    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    4
    I'm referring to Niseko specifically and the 700cm of total snowfall over the course of the season. I visit annually in January and I am not fortunate enough to be there all season.
     
  25. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2015
    Messages:
    143
    Likes Received:
    186
    Very interesting read - thanks JB.

    Can’t wait for your long term forecasts to start.

    Looks like climate drivers are pulling one and others are pulling another direction.

    Not concerned at all but would love a big start due to my trip over being 27th December.
     
    Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  26. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2015
    Messages:
    143
    Likes Received:
    186
    700cm?? From Snowjapan?
     
  27. ju87

    ju87 Just Registered

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2017
    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    4
    Was that accurate? When I was there the snowfall was infrequent and it was pretty low tide.
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    3,075
    Likes Received:
    3,074
    Last season had alot of lower lattitude severe storms in the sea of japan. The fetch was often primed for Honshu, while up Niseko way it was a bit wack.
     
  29. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,774
    From SnowJapan for Niseko (observations from altitude at base of mountain).
    2016/2017 season: 688cm
    2015/2016 season: 992cm
    2014/2015 season: 1144cm
    2013/2014 season: 1163cm
    2012/2013 season: 1493cm
    Also from SnowJapan.............For the record, here are the numbers that the Japan Meteorological Agency have recorded in Kutchan Town, a bit lower down than Hirafu:
    2016/2017 season until the end of March 2017: 835cm
    2015/2016 season until the end of March 2016: 841cm
    2014/2015 season until the end of March 2015: 969cm
    2013/2014 season until the end of March 2014: 946cm
    2012/2013 season until the end of March 2013: 1051cm
    My observation is there are some big differences there between SnowJapan & JMA.
     
  30. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,725
    Likes Received:
    1,134
    Niseko did (compared with *normal* seasons) have a poor season last year.
    Will the trend continue....
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    3,075
    Likes Received:
    3,074
    Yeah that was my recollection as well.
     
  32. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,763
    Likes Received:
    2,904
    Cheers :thumbs:. Most of the climate drivers seem to be in favour of a good season for Japan, it's the seasonal models that are pulling the other direction.
     
  33. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    967
    Likes Received:
    364
    Yup, it was a dud for Niseko, no two ways about it.
     
  34. telenomore

    telenomore Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2010
    Messages:
    602
    Likes Received:
    553
    Didn't really want to call you out exclusively @ju87 but the comments following mine bring to light that your not alone in swapping Niseko for Hokkaido. That is exactly my point and hence my question (and frustration). Niseko is NOT Hokkaido. So the comment may have been better targeting Niseko. I think Niseko centric thinking has been discussed elsewhere in these forums. Then again, maybe its best this way. More powder for us.
     
    Jellybeans1000 and Donzah like this.
  35. Thommo79

    Thommo79 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2016
    Messages:
    33
    Likes Received:
    12
  36. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,725
    Likes Received:
    1,134
    Looking good on the charts for next week. Obviously a long way out but still gets me excited
     
  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,763
    Likes Received:
    2,904
    Working now?
     
  38. Thommo79

    Thommo79 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2016
    Messages:
    33
    Likes Received:
    12
    Nope. I suspect that it is my work computer/server rather than your blog....
     
    Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  39. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,385
    Likes Received:
    876
    Still looking good for snow showers on the weekend but the middle of next week is looking ridiculous - albeit 168 + hours out.
     
    Froff Life likes this.
  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    The best thing, I think, is that the October stationary boundary has moved right off, ushering in the early/mid autumn northern low pressure troughs. It's looking a bit more like normal from now.
     
    Gregah likes this.
  41. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2010
    Messages:
    1,025
    Likes Received:
    953
    A glitch in the matrix, or signs of a good season to come?

    [​IMG]
     
    Gregah likes this.
  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,763
    Likes Received:
    2,904

    EC verify the GFS in the long range, so very promising.

    The Arctic Oscillation is going into the negatives soon and there is a lot of high lat blocking forecast in the EC op, so I would expect systems like the one Crispy pointed out to be coming over Japan sooner, rather than later. As I said in my season forecast, most signs point to a good season for Japan, we just have to watch and see what happens in the various drivers and models....
     
  43. Gregah

    Gregah Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    40
    Hey @Sandy did you happen to turn up anything in the "does a very wet (Honshu) October correlate with above average (Honshu) following winter snowfalls?" question?
     
  44. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2010
    Messages:
    1,025
    Likes Received:
    953
    All the hallmarks of a big December.

    In earlier news, looking good for Hokkaido this weekend. Should be very white.
     
  45. globewanderer

    globewanderer Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2015
    Messages:
    41
    Likes Received:
    23
    Just read your blog jelly! Looking forward to your updates as the season progresses along with everyone else on here putting in work for noobs like me just starting to learn to read these weather patterns and forecasts! Great work all!
     
    nfip, Jellybeans1000 and Zackety .L like this.
  46. TJ

    TJ Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2000
    Messages:
    3,460
    Likes Received:
    422
    There is certainly some promise in the near future. Just a wax of the board and I'm good to go.
     
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    Look here for Noob's tutorial:
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-tutorial-for-japan.63512/
     
    nfip and Jellybeans1000 like this.
  48. telenomore

    telenomore Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2010
    Messages:
    602
    Likes Received:
    553
    Do we need an observations thread? @Sandy ? Or will this thread do? Anyway, sitting at Tomamu, about 600m, 7:30 am and still raining and wind still from the south so this weekend system might turn out a bit warm. Last week was pretty hot for November. Two days in a row in Furano made 16 degrees.
     
    Tanuki likes this.
  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    59,810
    Likes Received:
    6,650
    No, it's overkill for the Japan thread.
    Weather should be quite different by tomorrow.
    A quick visit to Australia for me, returning today, and will bring colder temperatures back with me!!!! ;)
     
    LMB, Froff Life and telenomore like this.
  50. LMB

    LMB Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 6, 2010
    Messages:
    20,628
    Likes Received:
    7,411
    Almost 37 in Perth today and the hottest start to November on record. I reckon the universe is poking its tongue at me because I keep referring to my "12 month winter". All day I kept looking at the webcams hoping to see white while I lay prostrate in the air conditioning - let it snow Japan! Let it snow!