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The Japanese snow season 2017-2018 Weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Oct 29, 2017.

  1. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you use Snow-forecast for your info, check out the freezing level predictions. It looks to be above 1,000m until tomorrow morning. Whilst not the most accurate way to see rain/snow it's not too bad
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    whats interesting about that..is that the temp is say neg 3 at the top of myoko, then drops to neg 11 at 3000 metres
    but then rises dramatically to neg 3 at 4500m asl
     
  3. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Freezing levels in general are still very confusing for me. Following the charts and weather patterns is easy enough but using them to predict freezing levels is wayyy beyond me. Something I'd like to get better at before 2018/19 season :D
     
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    understanding soundings is a good place to start
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've got a mate heading over Thursday
    I told him...write Friday, Saturday off... from the arvo on Saturday on the snow machine should start to kick.
    Monday looks bloody cold.
     
  6. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which resort is he headed too? Higher elevation will be better
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Myoko
    I told him Shiga
    but guys he travelling with... well
     
  8. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Significant temp drop in Myoko.Beer in outside fridge now cold.Vis now very low.
     
  9. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Precpitation still lacking in any texture here in Hakuba. Japanese style skis look a pretty reasonable shape for waterskiing though so might not be a complete write-off.
     
  10. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A mild texture in the rain has arrived in Echoland. Praise be.
     
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  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok, so Shiga Kogen didn't get the 74cm that snow-forecast predicted.... they got 3cm!!!! LOL

    This is the new forecast.
    Shiga Kogen:


    Nozawa Onsen:


    I think that both of these are looking slightly more realistic than last Monday. After the rain, there's a colder northerly feed, dropping from 2500m+, down to below 800m before the precip dries up. Better for Shiga Kogen, because the base is 800m higher than Nozawa.
     
  12. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    30cms reported at Appi this morning. Check the winds predicted for up there for tomorrow night at the top of the hill! :eek:
     
  13. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What does EC look like on today's chart for tomorrow?
     
  14. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Pretty heavy snow top to bottom at Hakuba 47 all morning. Presuming it's going to turn to rain for the 60mm we're due tonight. Good to see white stuff though.
     
  15. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Went in for lunch. Came back out. Now raining top to bottom. There you have it!
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lesson: If you're expecting rain, but it's snowing, go for lunch later (when it's raining) ;)

    It's crept up to 3 degrees at 2pm down near the station. Interesting that it's raining top to botom at Goryu/47.... might be a temperature inversion.
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I posted the sounding showing this a few days ago.
    Warmer at 700hpa than 850hpa
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The wind has swung to the north in Kyushu, but it means that the colder air (Fukuoka has dropped 4.5 degrees in the last 3 hours)
    But it means that the colder air will probably not hit central Japan (Niigata/Nagano) for maybe 6-9 hours.
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ambitious timing IMO.
    Wind will go NW. .But the cold air lags a bit.
    I reckon snow from 3/6pm tomorrow
     
  20. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Blowing an absolute gale here in Akakura.Was working outside before and a sign was blown off a power pole.Bloke was walking by.Missed him by two metres. Would have done some serious damage if it hit him.
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    My mates just arrived.
    Said same
     
  22. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Raining in Hirafu.
     
  23. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll qualify that by saying that I'm going to Shiga Kogen tomorrow, and it should cool off enough to snow by early morning IMO.
     
  24. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Still raining at base camp here in the Hakuba Valley this morning. Hopefully that cold air arrives soon!
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    about 6 hours away i'd say
     
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  26. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Seems very similar to the last event where it rained about 99% and dropped a cm or two right at the death.
     
  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The last system was rounder and deeper, with a secondary trough to SE, so the loop never brought a long fetch from the north but wind from the WNW, so there was little follow up snow, and that in my view was an expected result.
    Last weekend's system:
    [​IMG]


    This system is more elongated north/south, so there is more fetch from the north, so there will be a longer period when the wind is from the north.
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I actually like the look of Sunday night for the coastal resorts on Honshu
    nice little low and decent enough temps
     
  29. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks Sandy, those are good charts and a useful explanation. When I lived in the UK we would use surface pressure charts all the time to forecast surf in the north sea and on the north shore - looking for low pressure systems with a strong northerly feed just like that. I'd been struggling to find decent charts for Japan but those are very clear. I guess the question is whether the moisture dries up before that strong northerly feed gets going? Or does the northerly flow naturally pick up the moisture from the Sea of Japan irrespective of the actual system itself?

    Disclaimer - I am highly highly amateur when it comes to meteorology so be gentle!
     
  30. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    T-shirt weather? :eek:
     
  31. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Stop it. I'm leaving on Saturday night.
     
  33. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I honestly can't see much to get excited about in the near future on the GFS, in fact all I can see warm air streams moving up from the south
     
  34. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Read the tutorial for Japan:
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-tutorial-for-japan.63512/

    Most of the snow doesn't come from low pressure systems in central Japan. In fact, low pressure systems generally bring rain. The best scenario is to have NO low pressure systems the whole winter.

    Most of the snow comes from Lake/Sea effect snow, with the cold northerly off the Asian mainland sucking up huge moisture from the Sea of Japan.
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    snowing down in Hyogo region
     
  36. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Has just started snowing in Hakuba.
     
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  37. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1.6 degrees at 10am down in the valley, so looking ok for the moment.
    (it's dropped from 5.3 degrees at 6am)
     
  38. zarik

    zarik Hard Yards

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    Yes!

    What do you think would be the best bet tomorrow in the Hakuba? Happo because of its elevation or somewhere else?
     
  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends how much snow falls, how much wind there is, and how many people are there this weekend.
    But this question is not snowfall/weather related, better to post in the Hakuba 2018 thread.
     
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  40. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind has stopped at MAdarao. Has been foggy all morning. Rain overnight but seems colder now and no longer raining.
     
  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow starting to settle at Shiga Kogen.
    Takamagahara, at bottom 1673m:
    [​IMG]
     
  42. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Took the kids to Iwatake this afternoon to fill in the time. Hideous sheet ice up top, deep sugar at the bottom and okayish in the middle. Cold and dry weather by the time we got there after lunch. Less than 1cm of fresh from that whole system I would say, even up top. Kids still had a blast so all good. Going to be an ice rink up there again tomorrow though.
     
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  43. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well something, not much though, settled on the car windscreen.
     
  44. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much more snow out of this one. Snowing lightly at Shiga Kogen....
     
  45. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    A dusting at Hirafu after rain yesterday.

    We went to Kiroro today as they had a bit more. Not bottomless by any stretch but a very good day.




     
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  46. Olgreg

    Olgreg One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    My god that place gets some snow @LMB And they tend to underreport, leading to some great surprises
     
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  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing at Shiga Kogen
     
  48. sourmash

    sourmash One of Us

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    We were there on the 6th March and it was getting serious dumpage compared to Annurpuri. Was much more noticeable last year when Niseko seemed to get a dry spell around January while Kiroro & Kokusai had constant dumps.

    Also had a great day at Rusutsu on Wednesday (beware head cam)

     
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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    #1549 Jellybeans, Mar 12, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2018
  50. J_T_

    J_T_ Hard Yards

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    We are in Hakuba for the next 5 days, just in time for the heatwave.

    We were up at Tsugaike today for a great spring riding session but I am sure that once the temps go up over the next couple of days it’s going to really deteriorate.

    Any thoughts on where we might day trip over the next few days, to find something more rideable? Based on my basic research it looks like this high affect most places in Honshu.

    Cheers

    JT