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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 19, 2018.
Looks like snow in Hokkaido for the next 6 days, so it's time to start the snow season thread.
kagura looks like it got a bit of love last night
Looking out my bedroom window I am seeing a mix of small snow flakes and lite drizzle. If it all turns white I will post a pic.
Snowing at Myoko
Some announcements from hokkaido i just saw
Kokusai open Thursday
Kiroro will not open on 23rd as planned
This morning I can see snow on the top of Mt Myoko - no pic as it is just a bit to far away to show up in a photo throught he trees.
I had a look at my photos from last year. We had snow on the 20th then as well, but it was a bit more than we had yesterday. So to some extent things are on track and normal.
So to some extent things are on track and normal.[/QUOTE]
Phewww!! Massive sigh of relief
15cm on Nakayama pass (I think?) in Hokkaido..
I haven't been here but they post reasonably frequent updates/photos throughout the season which can be useful for snow watching (sort of in-between rusutsu and kiroro/kokusai). This pass is prone to closing in heavy blizzards - as we found out the hard way
Any word on Nowaza Onsen? Was planning to be there around 22nd Dec pretty concerned at the very green fields...
It's still November!
Only get worried if it's still like this on the 18th December
So here's the bar room discussion. I know it's variable resort to resort but.... how much accumulated fresh snow do you think you need to have a good (not great) time. Push over all the Sansa grass, fill in all the little gullies and open up the backcountry with a nice stable snow pack.
I'm going to say ..... at least 2m. Complete and utter guess, whats yours?
Do you mean snowfall or snowpack?
It takes maybe 8-10 x 40cm falls to press down all of sasa, into 2m of pack.
Was booked into Hakuba from 23-31st Dec. After yesterday's snow in Niseko..I cancelled everything and booked to go North.
Happo one..still bare as a baby's butt...grass grass grass.
Mild El Nino doesnt help..it's just to warm in Honshu.
Airfares pricesfrom Tokyo to sapporo are absolutely off the planet...have to take the shinkansen tokyo to hakodate instead.
Ummmm........ This is normal for 22nd November.
The season opening for Happo one was due to be 23rd Nov...tomorrow.
I guess I don't have the fortitude to wait see...rather go for a sure thing after saving all my pennies for this trip.
If you look here:
there's not often snow base at the bottom of Happo before 15th December.
But if you notice, in 2014/2015, it went from 0cm on 14th Dec to 210cm of base in just 4 days.
I figure I'll go to Hakuba next time round in January.
Maybe 14-15 seasons ago. I had a shocker season at Fernie. That scared me for life lol...
You have any Qantas FF points ? Our flights from Osaka to Sapporo cost us $5.50 each plus points.
Stay on topic.
This is the Weather Forum.
looks like some areas of honshu got some love overnight.
Lot of areas are getting some snow which is nice to see. Once this system goes through it's looking warm again until later next week at this stage.
amazing how quickly it turns into a winter wonderland
Yes, but that's typical Japan.Grassy one moment, 200cm base the next.
In my view, this is still late autumn in central Japan. Early winter usually hits about mid December, when the "switch flicks".
Japan can go from zero to hero very quickly at the start of winter. I hope your gamble pays off.
Nov 29th is showing promise on GFS
Cams showing large sheep falling from the sky.....baaaaaaa
It's always a gamble in central honshu in december... a couple of years ago, it didn't really start properly snowing until early January and once it did, there were a couple of 60 cm overnight dumps in a row
I never pre-book anything before New Year. It's that simple!
Snowfall to generate a snowpack of sufficient size to cover up all the Sasa and then how deep a snowpack is needed to push everything down?
On the groomers, Sasa is not really a problem... off piste needs a decent snowpack to push down the grass.
Shiga opened today for skiing/boarding
You need perhaps 300cm to give enough cover over all the sasa off piste to push that down.
It also depends on how it falls. Ideal is an early 100cm+ dump, followed by rain to pack it.
If you get 10x 15cm falls it will not flatten the sasa substantially
I've got a good feeling about the 5th-7th Dec...something is brewing.
3mtrs at Nozawa - dont even think about off piste before that mark
From the weekly models?
The current event bringing snowfall from Hokkaido to Central Honshu. 510 Dam over Hokkaido, that's really deep particularly for Late Nov.
27th brings snowfall to Hokkaido and Northern Honshu, based on a low to the north.
Nov 29-30 brings another similar event, based on a weaker but directly overhead Hokkaido low.
Dec 1-2 brings the next chance of a Central Honshu event, winds are a bit awkward, starting okay, with some moderate snowfall, but a low in the SOJ complicates things and cuts the potential winds from being more direct.
Ah okay, didn't see GFS, I have kind of given up on that model, given it's wild teleconnections predictions and it's also set to be replaced in January.
ohhh RIP GFS
Is EC the way to go?
New version is called FV3. It's getting quite close to being as good as EC, a lot better now.
Can you please provide a link?
No zoom into Japan at the moment.
Actually there is a zoom in version, no precip.
Hi Jelly when will you be posting long term weather forecast for Japan Thanks Gazstreets
Tonight is the aim.
always look forward to you forecasts always very informative and a great read cheers Gazstreats
Snowed at Madarao this morning. And more on the side of the road when we drove back tonight than there was when we drove down the mountain this afternoon.
And as promised, here is my first long term outlook for Japan this season.
Models look okay, climate drivers not as great.
Slow Honshu start is the postulated takeaway?