The Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 19, 2018.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Looks like snow in Hokkaido for the next 6 days, so it's time to start the snow season thread.


     
  2. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    #2 ojisan, Nov 20, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2018
  3. skichanger

    skichanger A Local
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    Looking out my bedroom window I am seeing a mix of small snow flakes and lite drizzle. If it all turns white I will post a pic.
     
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  4. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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  5. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Snowing at Myoko
     
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  6. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Some announcements from hokkaido i just saw

    Kokusai open Thursday


    Kiroro will not open on 23rd as planned
     
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  7. skichanger

    skichanger A Local
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    This morning I can see snow on the top of Mt Myoko - no pic as it is just a bit to far away to show up in a photo throught he trees.

    I had a look at my photos from last year. We had snow on the 20th then as well, but it was a bit more than we had yesterday. So to some extent things are on track and normal.
     
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  8. gaz35

    gaz35 Addicted

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    So to some extent things are on track and normal.[/QUOTE]
    Phewww!! Massive sigh of relief
     
  9. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    15cm on Nakayama pass (I think?) in Hokkaido..
    I haven't been here but they post reasonably frequent updates/photos throughout the season which can be useful for snow watching (sort of in-between rusutsu and kiroro/kokusai). This pass is prone to closing in heavy blizzards - as we found out the hard way
    https://www.facebook.com/NakayamatougeSnow/posts/1882905011758270
     
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  10. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Any word on Nowaza Onsen? Was planning to be there around 22nd Dec pretty concerned at the very green fields...
     
  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    It's still November!
    Only get worried if it's still like this on the 18th December ;)
     
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  12. Ecstatic

    Ecstatic Hard Yards

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    So here's the bar room discussion. I know it's variable resort to resort but.... how much accumulated fresh snow do you think you need to have a good (not great) time. Push over all the Sansa grass, fill in all the little gullies and open up the backcountry with a nice stable snow pack.

    I'm going to say ..... at least 2m. Complete and utter guess, whats yours?
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Do you mean snowfall or snowpack?
    It takes maybe 8-10 x 40cm falls to press down all of sasa, into 2m of pack.
     
  14. tanman

    tanman Hard Yards

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    Was booked into Hakuba from 23-31st Dec. After yesterday's snow in Niseko..I cancelled everything and booked to go North.

    Happo one..still bare as a baby's butt...grass grass grass.

    Mild El Nino doesnt help..it's just to warm in Honshu.

    Airfares pricesfrom Tokyo to sapporo are absolutely off the planet...have to take the shinkansen tokyo to hakodate instead.
     
  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Ummmm........ This is normal for 22nd November.
     
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  16. tanman

    tanman Hard Yards

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    The season opening for Happo one was due to be 23rd Nov...tomorrow.

    I guess I don't have the fortitude to wait see...rather go for a sure thing after saving all my pennies for this trip.
     
  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    If you look here:
    https://www.snowjapan.com/japan-ski-resorts/nagano/hakuba/hakuba-happo-one/snowfall
    there's not often snow base at the bottom of Happo before 15th December.
    But if you notice, in 2014/2015, it went from 0cm on 14th Dec to 210cm of base in just 4 days.
     
  18. tanman

    tanman Hard Yards

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    I figure I'll go to Hakuba next time round in January.

    Maybe 14-15 seasons ago. I had a shocker season at Fernie. That scared me for life lol...
     
  19. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    You have any Qantas FF points ? Our flights from Osaka to Sapporo cost us $5.50 each plus points.
     
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  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Stay on topic.

    This is the Weather Forum.
     
  21. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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  22. PMG

    PMG One of Us
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  23. foxbat

    foxbat Early Days

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    amazing how quickly it turns into a winter wonderland
     
  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Yes, but that's typical Japan.Grassy one moment, 200cm base the next.

    In my view, this is still late autumn in central Japan. Early winter usually hits about mid December, when the "switch flicks".
     
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  25. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Japan can go from zero to hero very quickly at the start of winter. I hope your gamble pays off.
     
  26. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Nov 29th is showing promise on GFS
     
  27. foxbat

    foxbat Early Days

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    Cams showing large sheep falling from the sky.....baaaaaaa
     
  28. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    It's always a gamble in central honshu in december... a couple of years ago, it didn't really start properly snowing until early January and once it did, there were a couple of 60 cm overnight dumps in a row
     
  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    I never pre-book anything before New Year. It's that simple!
     
  30. Ecstatic

    Ecstatic Hard Yards

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    Snowfall to generate a snowpack of sufficient size to cover up all the Sasa and then how deep a snowpack is needed to push everything down?
     
  31. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    On the groomers, Sasa is not really a problem... off piste needs a decent snowpack to push down the grass.
     
  32. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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  33. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    You need perhaps 300cm to give enough cover over all the sasa off piste to push that down.
    It also depends on how it falls. Ideal is an early 100cm+ dump, followed by rain to pack it.
    If you get 10x 15cm falls it will not flatten the sasa substantially
     
  34. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    I've got a good feeling about the 5th-7th Dec...something is brewing.
     
  35. hatto

    hatto One of Us
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    3mtrs at Nozawa - dont even think about off piste before that mark
     
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  36. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    From the weekly models?
     
  37. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Looks pwerrrtty
     
  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Brief breakdown:

    The current event bringing snowfall from Hokkaido to Central Honshu. 510 Dam over Hokkaido, that's really deep particularly for Late Nov.


    27th brings snowfall to Hokkaido and Northern Honshu, based on a low to the north.


    Nov 29-30 brings another similar event, based on a weaker but directly overhead Hokkaido low.


    Dec 1-2 brings the next chance of a Central Honshu event, winds are a bit awkward, starting okay, with some moderate snowfall, but a low in the SOJ complicates things and cuts the potential winds from being more direct.

     
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  39. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Ah okay, didn't see GFS, I have kind of given up on that model, given it's wild teleconnections predictions and it's also set to be replaced in January.
     
  40. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    ohhh RIP GFS :(
    Is EC the way to go?
     
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  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    New version is called FV3. It's getting quite close to being as good as EC, a lot better now.
     
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  42. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Can you please provide a link? :)
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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  44. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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  45. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    Hi Jelly when will you be posting long term weather forecast for Japan Thanks Gazstreets
     
  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Tonight is the aim.
     
  47. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    always look forward to you forecasts always very informative and a great read cheers Gazstreats
     
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  48. skichanger

    skichanger A Local
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    Snowed at Madarao this morning. And more on the side of the road when we drove back tonight than there was when we drove down the mountain this afternoon.
     
  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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  50. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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