The Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 19, 2018.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    62,311
    Likes Received:
    9,015
    Yeah, always better to undercook....unlike the overcooking in Australia (e.g. "A big dump of 8cm of rain affected powder, on a very good base of 30cm.....)
     
    alferg, SnowBound and PerthBoarder like this.
  2. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    62,311
    Likes Received:
    9,015
    Hokkaido(western) gets a lot of 20cm top ups most days at this time of the year.
    The mechanism for snow is mostly different, and ~ 1000km from central Japan. Usually, you don't have to worry about snow in Hokkaido at this time of year. Some places in central Japan have been a bit slow off the mark, so snow fall is more talked about for the central Japan resorts.
     
    alferg likes this.
  3. elSpike

    elSpike Hard Yards
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2015
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    210
    It’s so deep on piste at Yakebitaiyama that we’ve had to come in. I’m out of my depth so to speak.

    Still puking down.

     
    mannyk, POW_hungry, Ramenman and 2 others like this.
  4. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    Sandy is the lake affect For Hokkaido less prevalent because the sea of Japan narrows near Hokkaido and is less likely to pick up as much moisture as say for Honshu Thanks Gazstreats
     
  5. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
    Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2008
    Messages:
    3,482
    Likes Received:
    2,861
    Superficial figures, but 20cm at -10C or 90cm at -2C? I know what I rather ride....

    Most people can't handle more than 50cm, a metre or so of central Honshu fresh can be heavy going.
     
    nfip likes this.
  6. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
    Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2008
    Messages:
    3,482
    Likes Received:
    2,861
    The Baron is back home in Austria at the moment, getting real wild.
     
    fennekeg likes this.
  7. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2016
    Messages:
    361
    Likes Received:
    332
    "Superficial" is an interesting word choice, but I was actually being facetious, so no need to mention the war......I encourage everyone to go ski in Hokkaido.......
     
  8. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us
    Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2008
    Messages:
    3,482
    Likes Received:
    2,861
    I know that, so was I.

    "Superficial", as in simple linear measurement of snowfall doesn't tell a third of the story.
     
  9. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    1,546
    Likes Received:
    1,447
    Alpi ne chair opened for the afternoon at happo.
     
  10. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    1,546
    Likes Received:
    1,447
    Alpi ne chair opened for the afternoon at happo.
     
    alferg likes this.
  11. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2016
    Messages:
    361
    Likes Received:
    332

    Seki, still trying to locate the lift station...............its under there somewhere..........
     
    nfip, alferg and blowfin like this.
  12. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,352
    Likes Received:
    13,791
    Was snowing pretty hard between Iiyama and Nozawa Onsen. Now light snow at Nozawa.
     
  13. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2018
    Messages:
    82
    Likes Received:
    45
    Next week looking big IMO
     
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    62,311
    Likes Received:
    9,015
    Yes. Two things:
    - Wider sea means more time to suck up moisture (Sea of Japan is about 800km wide adjacent to central Japan
    - The water is a little warmer adjacent to central Japan, so there is more temperature differential, leading to more evaporation.
     
  15. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    2,091
    Likes Received:
    4,659
    In Nozawa now. Locals reporting a metre of snow overnight.. This view from our window in the village:

     
    Sage Oya, fennekeg, 2ESki and 12 others like this.
  16. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,352
    Likes Received:
    13,791
    Today at Nozawa would have been unbelievable.
     
  17. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    Thanks Sandy does the position of a Siberian high have a bearing on how much snow falls on Hokkaido compared to say Honshu we had a high a week ago at 176 hec and would not think this sort of high would come along to often and could explain how this sort high develops .I don't think I have ever seen a high in Aus with that sort of a reading Much appreciated Gazstreats
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    Looked pretty good. A mate (and old forum member) was slaying the trees today
     
  19. bullet

    bullet One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2007
    Messages:
    789
    Likes Received:
    789
    We miss Bobs reports
     
  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    The position of the Aleutian/Kamchatka/Hokkaido Low in relation with the Siberian High matters the most. The snow over Siberia, and the extreme cold brought to the region creates the massive highs.
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    *perma frost
     
  22. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    I was talking about the fresh stuff that falls in October and over winter as well. That creates more albedo effect than the permafrost/old snowpack underneath
     
  23. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    6,881
    Likes Received:
    3,128
    Noice indeed, I've had the luck of seeing that at Nozawa.
     
  24. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    thanks Donzah and Jellybeans so iff you have a snow pack that builds in early Autumn in Siberia you are more than likely going to have above average snowfalls and extended snowfalls into a Japan autumn correct and is their such a thing as Artic Vortex and does it play a roll in snowfall for Japan the weather in this part of the world is very dynamic and interesting your input is much appreciated Gazstreats
     
  25. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    Yes, and yes, the Arctic Polar Vortex is a thing, and it affects Japan like all of the Northern Hemisphere.
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    Basically the large Siberian high helps stall and amplify the LWT for long periods over Japan.
    As JB said earlier. This coupled with sea level low pressure systems near the Aleutian islands direct a long sustained fetch over Siberia... Over the sea of Japan ... Into the escarpment like Alps of the Japanese coast.
     
    GazStreats and Jellybeans1000 like this.
  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    Yep and a weaker lower level Polar Vortex, and strong jetstream off China all helps create this set up. They are the two key indicators I look at, in addition to looking at factors in the Aleutian region.
     
    GazStreats likes this.
  28. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    thanks Jellybeans I was speaking to one of worlds foremost scientist who called into visit my gallery in the Margret river region yallingup to be precise and he has been studding the Antarctic vortex for some 15 years and this vortex has moved several thousand kilometers south creating one of worlds only growing ice packs on the west coast of Antarctica has their also been a shift of the Artic votex creating less snowfall more for Europe than say Japan and is your next long-range forecast for Japan far awayt thanks Gazstreats
     
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    .
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
    Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    62,311
    Likes Received:
    9,015
    Siberian highs, with lows east of Kamchatka, deliver those northerlies into central Japan. The bigger Siberian highs produce a bigger pressure gradient, with much longer northerly fetch, and stronger winds. Because the sea/lake effect is not as important for Hokkaido, the Siberian highs are not quite as important for Hokkaido. Hokkaido gets bigger dumps of snow from classical low pressure troughs around Hokkaido.
     
    GazStreats likes this.
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    Also. The wind direction is important for Hokkaido.
    North . .nor east... East. ..great for interior.

    Nw. Niseko and kiroro etc.
     
    GazStreats likes this.
  32. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
     
  33. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    Which are still influenced by the Siberian High.
     
    GazStreats likes this.
  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    What scientist was that? There hasn't been a decadal trend in the Arctic, that I know. If you are going to find the answer anyway, it will be somewhere in here.

    And my blog should be out soon.
     
    GazStreats likes this.
  35. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    thanks Jb Donzah and Sandy do these lows form less when their is a strong Siberian high ore are their other factors involved in the forming of these lows ie sea surface temperature .Donzah my conversation with scientist was some years ago so I hope my recollection of this conversation is correct thanks once again this forum is possibly imo one the most dynamic and informative forums on the planet Gazstreats
     
  36. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    6,881
    Likes Received:
    3,128
    Anyone got a prediction for the next week or so? Cheers.
     
    alferg likes this.
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    Should snow
     
    alferg likes this.
  38. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    6,881
    Likes Received:
    3,128
    I can agree with that :ski:
     
  39. tr+h

    tr+h One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,379
    Likes Received:
    363
    I can confirm 20-30cm tsugiake. Found untracked powder all day, including one drop in where I ended up, up to my waist.

    Once in a lifetime day for me!
     
  40. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    For Central Honshu. Snow Levels or SLs for the afternoon.

    10th of Jan: Snow showers, Cloudy, 5-15cm, westerly. SL: 900-1200m.
    11th of Jan: Snow showers, clouds clearing in afternoon, 5-15cm, NW wind weakening throughout day, SL: 1100-1300m.
    12th of Jan: Snow showers, Cloudy, 5-15cm, SL: 1100-1300m.
    13th of Jan: Snow showers early, clouds clearing, 5-10cm, weak NW winds, SL: 1000-1300m.
    14th of Jan: Partly Cloudy with chance of snow, 0-5cm, fresh WSW wind turning W, SL: 1100-1300m.
    15th of Jan: Cloudy with snow showers, 5-20cm, SL: 1000-1300m
    16th of Jan: Moderate snowfall, 15-30cm, weak NW winds. SL: 500-900m.
    17th of Jan: Moderate snowfall, 15-30cm, moderate westerly winds. SL: 1000-1300m
    18th of Jan: Heavy snowfall, 30-50cm, moderate-strong NW winds. SL: sea level-500m.
     
  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    Yes, the mechanic behind it is that the tropical signal/a jetstream excursion into Russia/ moving LWT or TPV into Siberia, pushes the Siberian High into East Asia, where it assists NW winds into Honshu, but it also expands the Aleutian Low, with offshoots starting or moving from the LWT excursion towards Hokkaido, as the East Asian Highs or positive East Asia Mountain Torque creates a stronger East Asian jetstream. So you typically get troughs near Hokkaido.
     
  42. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    6,881
    Likes Received:
    3,128
    Thanks, is SL referring to snow level / freeze level or accumulation at that level? Cheers
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,313
    Likes Received:
    5,822
    Snow level
    edit: I just tweaked them a fair bit
     
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    No forecast for 85cm?
     
  45. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    Jellybeans so in a nut shell the weather ie snowfall for Japan is closely related to snowfalls that occur in Siberia which intern has an effect on all the northern hemisphere weather patterns for snowfall thanks Gazstreats
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    Snow doesn't fall in Siberia. . Really.
    It's just effing cold and stable air.
    Hence a high pressure the size of Australia
     
  47. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    6,881
    Likes Received:
    3,128
    Hmm, ok. That's a unusually high snow level.
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    Personally
    I disagree with those levels
    They are rain for most hills on honshu
     
  49. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    15
    Donzah so in your opinion the colder the Siberian weather is the more likely hood their will be more favorable conditions for snowfall for Japan put simply thanks Gazstreats
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
    Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    20,690
    Likes Received:
    16,091
    Temp.
    No not really.
    There isn't any correaltion there.
    *unless it's unseasonably warm and the permafrost melts.
    You're looking for cold stable airmass.
    It's ridge will prevent pesky warmer troughs from Taiwan. While promoting a nw stream over Japan