The Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 19, 2018.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    There's also the aspect for central Honshu, where the amount of snow is SO dependent on topography, proximity to the coast, and facing direction, that it's impossible to give an accurate cm forecast for amount of snow for central Japan.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    This in spades.
    It's similar to predicting the precip amounts of the gold coast and Brisbane hinterland ..
    During a moist onshore flow.
     
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  3. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    So for places like Hakuba and surrounding resorts, what direction of wind should one be looking at when it comes to predicting where the most snow will fall or not fall at all?
     
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    @Sandy
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Just FYI
    The radar in Japan. Plus 15hr forecast.
    That's all you need
     
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  6. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Forgive me if it’s been posted before, but do you have a link to a radar? Or just simply google Japan radar? :)
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    As Donzah said, snow doesn't fall in Siberia in winter, but October Siberian snowfall is important to the onset of the Siberian High and the TPV.
    Hmmmm, based on both models, multiple sources, and I was being generous based on them. Could have dropped them a bit more for Siberian cold.
    It's possible to make a range of snowfall, in terms of a forecast IMO. Anyway it's worth a try either way.
     
  9. Guillaume@skipass

    Guillaume@skipass First Runs

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    Hi all from France (pardon my english)
    first post here but been lurking for years in anticipation of my annual pilgrimages. You guys are a great source of info!
    Arriving in the Myoko area on the 16th, few days there then off to Hakuba but plans are flexible
    Cheers
    Guillaume

    I think (hope) the "during the day" makes a great difference. For example, that was Jellybean's forecast for yesterday's episode.
    "Today (7th of Jan): Moderate snowfall, 15-30cm, 1200-1300m SL during the day.
    8th of Jan: Heavy snowfall throughout day, 25-50cm, 1300m SL during the day."
    9th of Jan: Moderate snowfall, clearing later on, 10-25cm, 1100-1200m SL during the day.

    From what I've seen, Seki at 350m did more than ok during the night... and SL stayed low even during the day today.

    So I'd like to think that Jellybeans' forecast is great... If history repeats, we should be ok. (a bit of self convincing there I agree :) )
     
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  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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  11. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local
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    Some nice skiing today ...not blower but deep ...Lotus 138's smashed it !!!!
     
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  12. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us

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    This says the snowdepth at Lotte Arai ski resort is 423cm today, hmm, 423cm in early January means it can be 650cm or more in mid February:eek:?
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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  14. elSpike

    elSpike Hard Yards
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    Magnificent bluebird morning shaping up here at Yakebitaiyama!

     
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  15. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

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    BC needs a good deep base in Myoko to fully open up. Even late Jan last year I was doing wet river crossings where I had skinned across in previous years and we had had 10m of snow by that stage. So bring it on I say.
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Well, it's worth a try, but honestly, in my experience, it's almost not possible.
    A couple of examples:
    Last season:
    - Happo ~ 15cm, Otari (near Cortina) 25cm, resort near the coast 70cm
    A few seasons back:
    - Akakura Kanko ~ 10cm, Suginohara 40cm (3 x). Akakura Kanko ~ 35cm, Suginohara 10cm.
    - Happo ~ 10cm, Cortina 40cm (happens often)
     
  18. GazStreats

    GazStreats Hard Yards

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    Thanks Jellybeans for your predictions in your long-term forecast for Japan hopefully we have a longer period of snowfall into spring it ended quite abruptly last season by the end of March and thanks to Sandy and Donzah for answering my questions about weather for Japan your knowledge is invaluable Cheers Gazstreats
     
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  19. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Hey sandy, any chance of a detailed forecast?
    Any "biblical" on the horizon? ;)
     
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  20. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    18th and 19th looking pretty tasty.... Biblical? I'll leave that to the experts

     
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  21. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us

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    The weather station at our farm in Ibaraki Pref shows 0 precipitation between December 12th and today(=January 10th), so it hasn't rained nor snowed at all for nearly a month. According to JMA, the last precipitation in Tokyo was December 23rd and it was only 0.5mm. So Tokyo also has been almost 0 precipitation for a month or so. December to February are the driest period for prefectures on the Pacific Ocean side such as Tokyo, Chiba and Ibaraki, so it's not very abnormal.
     
  22. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    That's why you would use a range, rather than a specific value. Same with all forecasts for wider regions, you have to be generalisitic, same in Australia and basically anywhere, if you are not tailoring it to the nuances of a specific location. They are also specifically tailored to the mountains in Central Honshu, rather than the coast. But it's each to their own anyway :thumbs:
     
  23. Ecstatic

    Ecstatic Hard Yards

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    Looking forward to the next long term forecast as I fly out on the 9th and will be on the slopes in Tohoku on the 10th of Feb. Hoping the systems haven't run out of inertia by then.
     
  24. blindo

    blindo Hard Yards

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    today was the clearest weather since xmas in Niseko, scattered/broken cloud and clear sunny periods. still wrapping my head around the weather here, but i wasn't expecting such clear skies under a westerly flow?

    Winds fresh WSW >> W (no significant orographic shadowing) for the area. Temps went as high as -1 @400m and +3 @ sea level as we imported some of the warmer air from the southwest, but why did we not develop cloud/precip from lake effect today? I don't have actuals from today but 850's were progged to remain around -10 on the windward side of the range. which given SST's of +7ish should have been enough for something (>13deg difference)? small amount of vertical wind shear but nothing of note.

    thoughts @Sandy @Jellybeans1000 ?

    spent the day surfing instead today :)
     
  25. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    EC isn't looking as incredible as GFS. The low is further away by the time the NW winds kick in on EC, compared to GFS, so there is less NW winds overall. It's also a bit earlier too.

    Interesting to watch all the layers come together. You want the Low angled towards the Aleutians, but you also want the high coming in from East Asia (+EAMT), and then you get a perfect situation for a NW wind.
     
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  26. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Sandy is probably better than me in the topography side of the equation, but worthy of note to your question is that there isn't a huge influence on Hokkaido from the nearby low.


    So without a sea level pressure low driving snowfall in Hokkaido, you don't really see the snowfall, apart from a bit of lake effect snow (as detected by GFS). The westerly (particularly WSW) aspect and slightly warmer air also detracts from the limited space that Hokkaido has for any type of lake effect snow.
     
  27. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    Clear(ish) and relatively mild day in Nozawa today. Lots of fresh powder remaining from yesterday ...

     
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  28. blindo

    blindo Hard Yards

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    yeah i think it would have to go down to temp? certainly little synoptic pressure gradient, but still as windy as it's been so i'd have expected something! not a trace of snowfall today, but glorious sunshine. GFS/EC both progged much higher cloud coverage than eventuated.
     
  29. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us

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    Every Thursday, Japan Meteorological Agency issue seasonal forecasts. Seasonal forecasts tend to be very vague, but at least it's a kind of official forecast in that it's the forecast from JMA.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  30. telenomore

    telenomore One of Us

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    Its not the size that matters.
     
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  31. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

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    Often what is said by the small ones...........but seriously yes the quality over quantity has already been discussed, but size sure does help to build the BC base and open up the terrain, no good having a cold powdery soft 2m base if all you can do is ride the groomers cause all the brush and creeks are still exposed.
     
  32. Tennex

    Tennex Hard Yards

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    Yes this is so true. Forcast 4cm overnight here in Kagura. They are clearing 30cm off the car park this morning.
     
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  33. telenomore

    telenomore One of Us

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    Ha ha. The point is "Mine is bigger than yours bragging" gets pretty boring in Japan. It's Japan, it snows. But seriously, on the point of an off piste base, we've been off piste for weeks in central Hokkaido. Our base is hard. Sounds like yours is soft. Hope you get a base out of this one. Ha ha.
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    I want a return to small, medium and big snowman forecasting on Jma.
     
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  35. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

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    lol ill pay that.......touché...
     
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  36. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local
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    The only true predictor.
     
  37. Tonester

    Tonester One of Us
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    and apart from that, I understand what a snowman means.
     
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  38. 2ESki

    2ESki Hard Yards

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    Well the predictions on 4 different web sites, for between the 15th and 22nd for Myoko Kogan has changed 6 times in 3days, from sunshine to blizzards o_O any better insight [psychic or otherwise] from the brains trust would be appreciated :thumbs:
     
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  39. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    Imo heavy snow, possible rain event then heavy snow.

    Placement of meandering low is key hence changes.
     
  40. 2ESki

    2ESki Hard Yards

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    Thank's for that, now it's as clear as mud :confused:
     
  41. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local
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    The low pressure system is hard to predict, the further north it goes the better, if it drifts across central Honshu it could bring warmer winds and thus rain.
     
  42. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us

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    Have been following this thread with interest since the start of the season. So much knowledge on here, a lot of it over my head mind you! Have found the recent Honshu/Hokkaido debate particularly interesting.

    I've only been visiting Japan since 2017 and have had three fairly disappointing trips (snow/weather wise). Much of that I guess has been down to my choice of dates (ie late Feb and early March) so you could say it was self-inflicted. Based on that I've gone all in and am taking my daughter to Rusutsu & Niseko for eight days in a week's time in an attempt to find some of this elusive Japanese white stuff people keep talking up! My assumption was that this is pretty much peak season for decent snowfall?

    The bar is fairly low but I'm hoping to beat it this time round (pretty please?!). Niseko 2017 = eight days, zero snow. Madarao 2018 = 6 days, 100mm+ of rain, 3cm snow. Hakuba 2018 = 100mm+ of rain, zero snow. So my question is this. I know resorts in Honshu can get rain in peak season at times, but does Hokkaido typically get much rain in peak season or is it simply too cold? Sure that's a pretty open-ended question and there can be freak events but I'm just talking in a general sense.
     
  43. 2ESki

    2ESki Hard Yards

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    Well for :crap:'s sake i hope it stay's to the north :whistle:
     
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  44. musehead

    musehead Hard Yards

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    I'll defer to the greater wisdom on here, but while Hokkaido can and does get mid-winter rain events, it's not very likely and if it happens it would probably be short-lived. There's no real sign of a rain event for the next couple of weeks in Hokkaido. The temperature might climb just above 0C at base level in Niseko as the low passes on the 15th, so probably won't result in any rain. Then it will get much colder again and looks cold until the end of January according to GFS (the 00z showed another low dragging up some warmer air on the 26th but too far off to be reliable - it's not there on the 06z!)
     
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  45. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    Keen to see how @Jellybeans1000 forecast goes for the last week of Jan in Honshu.
    Seeing some potential but charts seem quite messy with potential high over Honshu
     
  46. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

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  47. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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  48. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    My forecast for the coming week in central Honshu (Northern Nagano & Niigata):

    Mon 14th Jan: Clear. Light winds. Freeze level 0m.
    Tue 15th Jan: Clear. Light winds. Freeze level 700m. Snow developing at night down to 600m.
    Wed 16th Jan: Heavy snow down to 100m, and down to 0m after lunch, before easing to snow showers in the evening. Freeze level 200m ->0m.
    Thu 17th Jan: Snow showers persisting all day near the coast on a westerly. Partly cloudy inland. Freeze level 0m.
    Fri 18th Jan: Snow showers persisting all day near the coast on a light westerly. Partly cloudy inland. Freeze level 200m.
    Sat 19th Jan: Snow showers becoming more frequent near the coast on a light/moderate NNW wind. Snow showers pushing inland within 30km, before easing in the afternoon. Freeze level 300m.
    Sun 20th Jan: Snow developing in the evening above 700m on a moderate NNE wind, becoming heavier at night. Freeze level 800m.

    Outlook (subject to change)
    Mon 21st Jan: Moderate snow on a northerly, pushing 35km inland, persisting right through the day. Freeze level 0m. Moderate winds. Cold.
    Tue 22nd Jan: Snow on a north-westerly, pushing 30km inland, and easing by midday. Freeze level 0m. Light winds.
    Wed 23rd Jan: Moderate snow developing on a NNW wind, pushing 40km inland, before easing in the evening. Freeze level 0m. Cold.
    Thu 24th Jan: a few snow showers early morning, before clearing by late morning. Freeze level 300m.
    Fri 25th Jan: Clear. Freeze level 1000m
     
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  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Just out of curiosity, how do you come to that forecast? Not sure if I can see a freezing level of 0m during the day tomorrow.
     
  50. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    I go mostly on vertical thickness on the Sea of Japan coast.