The Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 19, 2018.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    All you need to do is read Jelly's disclaimer:
    "Disclaimer: There is low skill associated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together."
    And:
    "The climate driver forecasts tend to have quite a bit more skill than the model forecasts, but certainly don't put all your money on them."

    FWIW, over the past 15 years, every season following a hot summer has been a good season.
    Don't put your house on any of it.
    Poorer than average season may be the difference between 1100cm and 1000cm!!! ;)
     
  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yes that would be the takeaway.

    It is important to note that despite the disclaimer, there is genuine science here particularly with the climate drivers, and there is a strong case for a poor start to the season for Honshu.
     
  3. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Great reading as always Jelly.
    Slow start to the season for Honshu will hurt some forum members on here :(
    Hopefully from early Jan things are back to normal programming
     
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  4. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    I guess you always run that risk booking anything in Honshu before January at the earliest. There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to advise against early Honshu bookings.
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Yes, but in the end, it's just a forecast. We all know that one dump changes everything.
     
  6. skichanger

    skichanger A Local
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    More snow at Madarao this morning but it is disappearing quicker than yesterdays.
     
  7. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    This outlook makes me pretty nervous... thinking of moving to Hokkaido to make sure we get the white stuff! :O
     
  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    When are you going?
     
  9. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Yep good plan, no one should bother with Honshu anymore, it’s never going to snow there anymore, everyone should just head north to Hokkaido!!! Hmm I sound like Al Gore there!
     
  10. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    Folks who book to ski in Honshu before Christmas are asking for a white knuckle weather ride
     
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  11. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    Oh, wonderful :whistle:. Our only prior experience skiing in Japan was mid-late January 2016, one of the worst snow seasons in recent history (according to some), when a third of Nozawa Onsen and a good portion of Hakuba were shut due to lack of snow. We are due back this January (Nozawa again, and Shiga Kogen). School holidays = January! Oh well .... One thing we do know is that the snow that will be there will be good snow :)
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Yes and no.
    Long term patterns disagree with you.
    Short term influence via social media and so forth agree
     
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  13. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Is Rusutsu closed again after opening?

    "Due to rising temperatures. Ski area operations will be changed from today until conditions improve"
     
  14. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    I think squanchy ommitted the bit about only people who read these forums, are in for a wild ride.....i swear some times that certain posts on these forums are secretly sponsored by big pharmaceutical companies who manufacture meds for anxiety and depression, there’s more ups and downs then on a roller coaster in this thread as winter comes and goes.... :DLOL, and chill haters, im being sarcastic...:thumbs:
     
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  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    ....after all, it's still only November!! ;)
     
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  16. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Hokkaido should receive on an off snow for the rest of the week so hopefully their back open soon!

    Something brewing for next week....
     
  17. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    IMO early winter switch flick from 7/12.
    540 line consistently pushing below kanto region and northerlies.
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    If the switch flicks then, it will be earlier than usual.
    Which is inconsistent with some forecasts ;)
     
  19. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    What's your counterview?
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    I have no counterview!!! :)
    I was talking about some longer range forecasts, saying the season would be late in central Honshu. ;)
     
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  21. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    yes - still a lot of low pressure rain events dragging warm air up over the next week
     
  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    This sometimes happens into January (like last season)
     
  23. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    Looks positively like T-shirt weather in Hakuba valley at the moment.
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Yeah nah.
    High in Siberia ain't high enough. Strong low pressure trough near Taiwan
     
  25. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    Yr no. long term for central Japan like from 7th onwards
     
  26. tanman

    tanman Hard Yards

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    Major rain event headed for Hokkaido Dec 4th
     
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  27. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Yup :cry: Will wipe most of the lower mountains bases.

    Ouch:
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Yup nothing happening in the next 16 days ..besides rain.
     
  29. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    Sounding like a pretty late start for Hokkaido then especially post rain event
     
  30. Slowman

    Slowman Addicted
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    Yuk! - can someone please try to make this sound better by confidently asserting it will do something useful like scaring the Europeans away.
     
  31. Slowman

    Slowman Addicted
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    Like this irritating one.

    (Actually snowing lightly in Kutchan at the moment. Minus 1C and 2cm according to JMA)
     
  32. elSpike

    elSpike I am a Meat Popsicle
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    Looks like a backplate BCD for diving! Maybe he is James Bond during one of those before the credits escape scenes?
     
  33. Deepzone

    Deepzone Hard Yards

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    snow on Honshu next week I reckon. Enough to get the ball rolling.
     
  34. Slowman

    Slowman Addicted
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    Maybe I am guilty of unfair and prejudiced generalisations but the European skiers I encounter in Japan somehow always seem to be in front of me in lift lines - plus they are always kitted out with bright expensive skiwear, airbag backpacks, and better skis than mine. To make matters worse they are also young, fit, polite and fluent in about five languages. Quite intolerable.

    Now down to - 2C in Kutchan.
     
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  35. PMG

    PMG One of Us
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    GFS still showing something substantial for next Fri/Sat. Long way out obviously.
     
  36. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Same here. Nozawa from January 9th-16th. At least we'll get to watch the fire festival.
     
  37. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us

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    It seems it's been snowing hard in some areas of Hokkaido. For example, +27 cm of snowdepth in last 4 hours in Yubari, the city where there is Mount Racey ski resort.
     
  38. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Niseko reporting 15cms on the ground at village level this morning, more up higher
     
  39. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Yeah i read 30+cm at Rusutsu Kokusai & Kiroro and 20cm at Teine! Nice!
    Now i want to go..
     
  40. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Patience, Honshu will receive its share soon...
     
  41. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    tokyo seeing some winter like temps from late next weekafyer the rain event - correlates with a possible N fetch that some models have shown
     
  42. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    Snap! Exactly the same dates as us (a week in Shiga Kogen before then). It will snow ...
     
  43. PeterM

    PeterM Hard Yards

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    Next Friday - Monday looks great!
     
  44. skichanger

    skichanger A Local
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    Snowed overnight at Madarao.
     
  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them
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    GFS



    EC



    Yeah Nah, Furano



    Fingers crossed this will start the base.
     
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  46. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Looks solid for Hokkaido, but Honshu could be pretty wet
     
  47. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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  48. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    Cooler from Saturday, though.
     
  49. telenomore

    telenomore One of Us

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    Yes looking good but no need for fingers crossed, Furano zone now open top to bottom with a good base. Offical depth 96cm up the top. We got a good 30-40 cms last week. Kitanomine zone has good cover but won't "officially" open for a few more weeks.

    Kitanomine Zone Yesterday.
    Top of Furano zone yesterday
     
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  50. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Autumns last dying breaths is all....