The Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 19, 2018.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Its japan, gets alot of weather Rain , snow .. Its not like forecasting for Europe, or North America, or Australia etc
    Its a completely different headspace.
     
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  2. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    I’ll cross everything and get what comes
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Its pretty rare for a rain event to not deliver snow as it passes to the south, pushing away to the noreast.
     
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  4. yowiepowah

    yowiepowah Hard Yards

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    How do the forecasts for next Sunday on-wards (17th) look for Hokkaido? I'm heading there for a week and I'm wondering whether its worthwhile booking some off-piste guides / cat-skiing in advance but would like some more guidance on expected conditions. I have had a crack at reading the GFS charts and it doesn't show a whole heap of precipitation in that period, but I'm still a newbie at this, especially in regards to any of that famous 'lake-effect' snow (or does that only affect Honshu?). I'm based in Niseko but open to driving to 1-2 hours for something more ideal...
     
    #1354 yowiepowah, Feb 11, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2019
  5. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Conditions held nicely today for a tour up to summit of Maeyama, sun poked its head out for awhile and the winds stayed away, nice powder below 1600, little wind affected above that but really nice conditions.
     
  6. sourmash

    sourmash One of Us

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    I arrive on 15th and it's looking a bit skinny for fresh snowfall. Here is the forecast for 1100m at Hirafu...

    [​IMG]
     
  7. yowiepowah

    yowiepowah Hard Yards

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    Yeah I also saw this and was slightly disappointed, I was really hoping that we'd get some daily top ups over the day/night. I think these forecasts don't really take into account orographic snow, I just don't know whether the wind is blowing in the right direction/sufficient velocity to generate some bonus snow and was hoping someone more knowledgable could provide some insight into the microclimate around Niseko/Kiroro/Rusutsu.

    I've also seen this forecast which seem slightly more bullish, let keep our fingers crossed! :)
     

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  8. Tropical

    Tropical One of Us

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    Same - however I am heading to Furano with day trips to Kamui and Asahidake.

     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    You guys should look at other weather models ..........
    EC is better than GFS remember?
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Mind you . If I was flexible..and wanted pow.

    I'd be heading to central Hokkaido next week
     
  11. rikedwards

    rikedwards Hard Yards

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    I'm on holidays in Nagano next week and I'm just hoping that there isn't rain on my parade!
     
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  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    12-18 hours of rain. May fall in some places heavier than others
     
  13. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker
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    We arrive at Shiga Kogen next Monday, staying at Prince West 1550M.
    Hopefully the elevation will be our friend.
     
  14. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Epic day at Seki today with 50cm overnight and another 18cm during the day, just snowed all day and stayed cold with negligible wind. Perfect powder day, waste deep in the trees on the lee aspects.
     
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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Yeah next wednesday is looking a bit ugly on EC
    *though looking epic for Hokkaido
     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    It probably owes to the fact there is no free precipitation charts for EC. People don't really love thickness charts.
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    *free ones
     
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  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Saturday doesn't look bad for the higher mountains on Honshu, and Sunday night should be good.


    ATM as stated Wednesday looks to be a washout, with some snow in the backend.
     
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  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    sorry forgot to add that
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Oddly . These systems are being pushed further and further out
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    oddly- my daughter has a accuweather promo sign on

    as does my dog (rip)

    cat -plural
     
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  23. Guthega Girl

    Guthega Girl Hard Yards

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    Good day to do some onsens and have a mid week break !! Fingers crossed for the snow at the end to freshen back up
     
  24. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    you say what....
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Free trials
     
  26. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    GFS has had some sort of disturbance in the region for a while for Weds.

    The thing to watch is the weak highs, practically perfect territory for lows to come up to Japan, with there still being a gradient.
     
  27. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us

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    Do you mean further out in the timeline or further out geographically?
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Timeline.
     
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  29. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us

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    Thanks. And bugger. :mad:

    I see what you mean now I look at it though. Sunday (24th) now looking more than a little disgusting on GFS. That's a long way off yet though!
     
    #1378 blueandwhite, Feb 12, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2019
  30. Buzza8

    Buzza8 Early Days

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    Hey @Donzah
    Would this be for Furano as SF shows clear skies ? Next Sunday now showing heavy rain event for Furano too
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Don't look at snowforecast. IMO for Japan.
    It's crap.
     
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  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    What date you looking at?
     
  33. Buzza8

    Buzza8 Early Days

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    I was looking at Wednesday but just RE read your message and apologies it’s next Wednesday ( we fly home Tuesday unfortunately) do you think the freeze level will change Sunday for snow to fall in Furano instead of rain ? Maybe hit higher mountain like Asahidake. Thoughts ?
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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  35. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us

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    The likelihood of rain means I might br taking two pairs of pants for just five days on the slush. Might only be four days if Wednesday is to be a washout as in that case we'd probably use the last unallocated day on the JR East pass to go down to Matsumoto for tourist stuff at the castle and art gallery.
     
  36. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Crazy day at Arai today with a good 50cm of overnight snow in the gullies, crazy deep in sections, visibility was minimal, but the forgiving snow well compensated, snowed all day non stop at least 10-15cm extra at the car at 3pm . A day for good low light lenses, and sticking to known terrain or the sparse trees.
     
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  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Looking very nice.
     
  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Pics all mucked up order wise. Sorry
     
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  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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  40. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Hard Yards

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  41. Guthega Girl

    Guthega Girl Hard Yards

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    Me likey

    First 3 days could be amazing if that comes off
     
  42. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    It's going to snow
     
  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Especially in Hokkaido
     
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  44. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Hakuba area? What’s ya thoughts on the models you posted?
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Honestly.
    Very spring like for Hakuba.
    I don't see much cold smoke.
     
  46. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker
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    Shiga Kogen.....a bit higher?
    Mebe bebe.......?
    Or not :(
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Sorry
     
  48. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Well that’s no good at all
     
  49. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker
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    Ta.......at least our o/s rain magnetism remains 100% :whistle:
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    It may change.. .
     
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  51. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture
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    Maybe just maybe.
    Appreciate your input and knowledge