The Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 19, 2018.

  1. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    I'm still sticking to my early winter by Friday call
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    EC says a dominant ridge will return ... should be OK for Hokkaido.
    Until that ridge buggars off, and the large 1050plus highs get established in Siberia...It ain't winter on Honshu
     
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  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Too much randomised Niño centric East Asia activity to see that region clearly ATM.
     
  4. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    The lows crossing lower Honshu?
     
  5. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Today is a pretty horrible day for most Japan ski fields. Warm and wet.

    Should be back on as we head into the weekend though. A couple of nice setups lining up just before Christmas.
     
  6. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them
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    Will make a nice solid base though.
     
  7. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Descending Siberian High
     
  8. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Local news reporting the highest December temperature for Sapporo in over 30 years
     
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  9. tr+h

    tr+h One of Us

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    16 Celsius forecast for hakuba today. Warm and wet till Friday. Then forecasting 50cm snow Friday-Sunday.

    Fingers and toes crossed.:confused:
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Yeah not looking good for Hakuba. Ten CM of so of snow followed by heavy rain this time next week.
     
  11. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    Need to see some progress towards a base building in Honshu by Christmas or first half of January could be low tide off piste
     
  12. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Tis ugly
     
  13. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    its an el nino season - not inspiring confidence
     
  14. tr+h

    tr+h One of Us

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    All my accommodation is fully cancellable. $400 per person fee if I cancel or change my flights.

    Maybe a Canadian trip might be the go???

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    Maybe a Canadian trip might be the go???
     
    #114 tr+h, Dec 4, 2018
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 5, 2018
  15. Slowman

    Slowman Addicted
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    Currently 10 in Kutchan and the snowpack there has reduced from 34cm to 14 cm in the last 24 hours, helped along by some light rain - just like Thredbo at the moment.
     
  16. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Fark. Might be heading to Hakuba for my first ever Japan experience in Mid Jan. Somebody slap me if I'm worrying about nothing...
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    It's only December 4th!
     
  18. Slowman

    Slowman Addicted
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    There is good stuff (heavy snow and low temps) in the forecasts from Thursday onwards.
     
  19. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

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    You’ve been slapped.
     
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  20. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

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    This is from 3 days ago from a run up in my hills in Victoria, it’s summer, I ain’t worried about the upcoming summer here, just as in Japan it’s only just the start of winter, the seasons always give one last hoorah before they change, so chill Winston, chill it will snow.
     
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Where?
     
  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them
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    Yeah - Low Temps
    Nah - Heavy Snow

    Furano


     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Yup Hokkaido loves
     
  24. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Thank you - needed that ;)
     
  25. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Hokkaido luvs next week, not yet for Honshu though. The snow will come!
     
  26. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us
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    But what if it doesn't?Should we contact Trump?
     
  27. zarik

    zarik Hard Yards

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    Shows decent amount of snow Friday-Sat. Was thinking about driving to Shiga Kogen if it materializes on Sunday morning. Kuma no you has some made base, might be nice
     
  28. Slowman

    Slowman Addicted
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    snow-forecast.com predicts moderate to heavy snow in Niseko from Thursday evening. darksky.net is similar. I haven't checked the forecast for Honshu.
     
  29. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Kunimi weather station down near Beppu (Kyushu) at 26.1deg. She warm.
     
  30. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Narba showing some descent numbers on the WE on snow-forcast
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    I wouldn't rely on snowforecast too much (if at all) for Japan.

    It overcooks snow from low pressure storms that travel up from the south, while undercooking snow using the sea effect from the NW.
     
  32. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    it's fairly accurate on freeze levels
     
  33. PMG

    PMG One of Us
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    I've found it pretty reliable mid winter.
     
  34. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local
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    Off piste doesn't really become safe until at least 1st week Jan anyway .
     
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  35. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    #gfs
     
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  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    In a nutshell
     
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  37. tr+h

    tr+h One of Us

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    Spent this afternoon looking at plan b, c, d and f.

    Can switch flights to North America but will cost an extra $1000-2000 pp. Can't get accomms in sun peaks, big white, can get overpriced stuff in whistler and can get a good price on a place near kymble junction at park city or south Lake Tahoe.

    Hmmmmm
     
    #137 tr+h, Dec 4, 2018
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 5, 2018
  38. Stiffler

    Stiffler Addicted

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    For $25 you can get a box of Xanax, and chill Winston, chill.
     
  39. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Relax. It’s early Dec. This is very typical.

    [​IMG]
     
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  40. PeterM

    PeterM Hard Yards

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    Still something on the cards for Central Japan from Fri night - Sunday nighn, and then on Wed night - Friday imo, -10c @ 1500 so should be cold enough for the tops at least.
     
  41. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    Looking at latest model runs the rain progged for next week looks to be moving through a bit faster and further south than before
     
  42. hatto

    hatto One of Us
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    Panic has set in early peeps, just relax it will snow lots
     
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  43. Deepzone

    Deepzone Hard Yards

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    Haaaaaa. Double slap from here.
    someone get a straight jacket for this guy.


    Cold temps coming through later in the week. Lake affect will come into play. 1/2 a meter at the top at least from this system and then more to come next week.
     
  44. squanchy

    squanchy Early Days

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    IMO rain event for Honshu next week does not look as bad as earlier projections - all depends on there that low tracks
     
  45. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture
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    If they get a fair bit of snow this weekend, then a little bit of rain would be welcome to solidify the snowpack
     
  46. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local
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    Who said it was a slow start for Honshu ?

     
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  47. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Nozawa-Onsen


    Sunday into Monday looks good. Not much rain to be had on Wednesday, looking good to start the season, but it's no big event.
     
  48. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    ######################
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    I suggest you go to Canada.


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    Bloody hell !!!!!!!
    I'm out of Japan for a week, and half the crowd panics, and it's only 5th December. :doh::fart:

    ~~~~~~~

    PS
    I've gone out of Japan at this time because I'M NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO SKI ON YET!!!!!! LOL:rolleyes:
     
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  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Sunday
    [​IMG]
    Monday
    [​IMG]

    Warm as
    Snowforecast is smoking crack


    However the trend seems to be a weaker sub tropical jet on EC
    LWT seems to amplify across NW asia 14th December on
     
  50. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    Which statistically, is the time when the "switch flicks" in Honshu.