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The Japanese snow season 2018-2019 Weather

Discussion in 'General & World' started by Sandy, Nov 19, 2018.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I think so
    My laymens call is a week before christmas
    *of course there as been a couple of late seasons in recent record. Which people remember.
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The biggest issue is the siberian highs aren't strong enough yet to exert a ridge down.
    That ridge is weak and over japan.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    -EAMT (East Asia Mountain Torque) slows down the sub-tropical jet over the next 7 days. +EAMT speeds it up for the Week 2 & 3 period. Then the LWT/Tropospheric Polar Vortex dipping south, pushes the Siberian High mechanism south to increase Mountain Torques in East Asia, and if it gets in the place near Korea where it is, it will be nice and sweet for Honshu. The source of wind is certainly cold enough, maybe not as cold as it could be however. Deeper troughing activity to North will take care of Hokkaido.
     
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Speed or latitude of sub tropical jet in week 2/3?
    IMO a dip south in that jet...even while it stays strong can change weather dramatically in Honshu.
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    If TPV goes down, then I agree it would dip down south. Also a speed up.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats quite a good outcome for Hakuba and places that like westerly snow
    Not so much for Myoko, Nozawa etc
     
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  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And that is perfectly normal for early December as you know, but others clearly don't!!! ;)
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its looking at a ski holiday from a Europe, North American or Australian mentality.
    Where snow base accumulates.

    Japan. When it starts can add 300cm of snow to a base in a week.
    *conservative
     
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you referring to me?
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    And there is no 300cm in a week in the forecast as of yet.
     
  11. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Yep I remember Myoko 14/15 (I think) the first snow fall was around 7-8 Dec and it’s was 90cm straight up overnight. 2m in first week. Boom thanks for coming!
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And this is possibly the most localised knowledge that cannot be outlined by generalised forecast of the coldness of the wind on a larger scale.
    Because central Honshu relies so much on Lake/Sea effect snow, the direction and strength of the wind (and because of this, the inland penetration) is the part that is not well understood, because it relies heavily on the terrain, and knowledge of that.

    A classic case for me just last season, when Happo got 10cm overnight and just a sprinkle during the day, Cortina 20cm on a lighter NW wind, while one resort 20km from the sea got 50cm + another 20cm up to 2pm.
    And I was there that day, because I was reading wind conditions two days out.
    It's SO important.
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    But the point is, some of these huge dumps often can't be predicted because of the variation in wind and terrain.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe we should try and understand the wider factors and teleconnections surrounding it. That would increase our understanding of it.
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see we could get into a macro vs micro argument here.

    The reality is.
    The bigger picture is helpful on zoning into when it could occur
    But no weather model will ever model 120cm in 20 hours at Myoko
    At best it would offer 20cm
    Nor will it deal with 50cm at Cortina vs 10 at Happo

    When its "on" .
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can agree with that.
     
  17. Joe

    Joe One of Us

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    Hope you to the advice from others and hung in there.
     
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  18. squanchy

    squanchy Hard Yards

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    It's still snow-forecast...
     
  19. Joe

    Joe One of Us

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    Sure, allow a bit of give and take re accuracy but it will snow!
     
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  20. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I love it when the forecast on SnowJapan or MW calls for 10 - 15 cms and it snows 70 cms. Part of the beauty of Japan is the unpredictable nature of the snow, the Hakuba Valley is a great example of the variations that occur.
     
  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow-forecast still doesn't "get" the lake/sea effect snow. And cannot fathom the way terrain influences the amount of snow.
    So, for example, on the same day, Myoko Akakan may get 15cm, and Myoko Suginohara may get 40cm (understand the way that works and you score, like I've done on 4-5 occasions)

    Or Nozawa gets 60cm, and Happo gets 10cm.

    Snow-forecast cannot predict that.
     
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  23. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's dropped about 5 degrees here in Yokohama since midnight.
     
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  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Switch to be turned on around the 21st of December IMO.
    Before then I see equal parts snow and rain... too many warm hearted lows from Taiwan .
     
  25. hotsaki

    hotsaki One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I arrive in Myoko on the 14th for switch flicking.
     
  26. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can it change though? I see a big gross low tracking up from the south on the 20th, but 3 weeks is a long time out
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm looking at the pressures in siberia and the LWT.
    Along with the sub tropical jet and polar jet.
     
  28. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us

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    I just hope ski resorts in Honshu will have enough snow by December 22nd. I mean, 21st is Friday, and students's winter vacation will start on 22nd this year. Even if ski resorts have a lot of snow in early December, not many people go skiing, so it's okay for ski resorts in Honshu if they don't have enough snow before December 20th. Of course, early snow like last season is preferable, though.
     
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  29. Joe

    Joe One of Us

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    From my limited experience in Japan snow forecast.com forecasts are on the conservative side. I don't really understand it but when I hear the Siberian high is positioned correctly to provide cold air for the lake effect phenomenon totals are anybody's guess. On countless occasions Ive seen 1cm forecasts for morning, day and night 3 days running which turns out to be 40-50cm but then 5 -10cm over the same period. If I do season after season the odds start to stack in my favour ;)
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    They're not so much conservative, it's just that their models don't take into account the whole picture of how it snows in Japan.
    See here:
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-tutorial-for-japan.63512/
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jetstreams should flick in 10 days, at it's full extent 15 days.
    Siberia 10 days onward. -AO to help the load in the last third of Dec.
     
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  32. Joe

    Joe One of Us

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  33. Four!

    Four! Hard Yards

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    I know it's a lottery and depends on winds, geography etc. But which web page (for non meteorologists :) ) do you think is the best for getting predcited snowfalls 'about' right at a particular resort for the next day? Eg. https://www.snowjapan.com https://www.windy.com/ https://www.j2ski.com etc. Windy.com is the 'best' I've come across when on the ground in Japan?
     
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  34. fennekeg

    fennekeg Hard Yards

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    I was just wondering if Windy was any better, they have a setting for 'new snow' in the coming 12h, 24h, 3d, 5d. Do they do a better job than Snow-forecast?
     
  35. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Windy has both EC and GFS modelling so yes.
     
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  36. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Okay getting nervous. Nowaza onsen December 22-28 will it be white???
     
  37. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Don't be nervous. I am in Hakuba from 28/12.
    She'll be right mate.
     
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  38. squanchy

    squanchy Hard Yards

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    @Mils Well its GFS and long way out this below is showing for Donzah's switch flick date.
    There is also snow this weekend and again next week after some rain that should form a base of whatever is left of this weekends falls
    [​IMG]
     
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  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I remember a few years back.... Hakuba Cortina had 0cm base at the bottom on 17th Dec, but by 22nd Dec, there was 200cm+ base.
    It's still only 7th December.
     
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  40. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    I remember a year full of cabbages when we were saying "it's still only January"...
     
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  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That was a very strong El Nino year..... ;)
     
  42. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Out of time either need to commit to nowaza or switch to North island today...
     
  43. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    I remember January 2016 ;). But this coming one will be different. It will snow ... No switching or cancellations for us. Committed to Shiga and Nozawa.
     
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  44. smackies

    smackies A Local

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    And January 2017...

    *first half.
     
  45. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Yep you have to back yourself and more often than not chasing the snow ends up to be chasing your tail.
     
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  46. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Go north ...more pow for me !!!!!
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And 1998
     
  48. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah but last was weird. Niigata city had 80cm overnight in mid January. A commuter train was unable to progress and people had to take turns lying down to sleep overnight.
     
  49. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Yep I’ve heard Honshu will have no snow this season due to a rare phenomenon called earlyseasonanxiety oscillation index, thus all tourists have been directed to head to Hokkaido!!
     
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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You get it
     
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