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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2019.
Let the fun begin!!!!!
Here's the webcam thread:
Japan weather tutorial thread:
Let’s hope for a great season of forecasting and snowfall
Here is my first long term forecast for the Japanese snowfall season.
Snowfall potential around the 7th-10th of Dec, and then a potential for a lull in conducive snowfall conditions.
Personally the set up looks great.
Establishment of a large high pressure over Siberia from the 2nd of December on.
Looks like the pundits are right ........ I might be skiing on Sunday week ??????
It's certainly not winter yet!!!
Around Tokyo, it's been sort of 8-11 degrees and rain/drizzle the last few days.... more like England than Tokyo!!!
Fri / Sat looking more like early winter for a couple of days: Clear and 4-11 degrees and 4-12 degrees forecast.
In the mix, looks like the first late autumn step on 3rd/4th Dec for central Japan, with rain /snow mix in Niigata city, and freeze levels down to around 500m. The early winter step change possibly coming around the 14th Dec.
14th looking the goods at this stage.
Just a tease .....
its late this year ..
Ill be in Niseko around Dec 16 , glad i booked up north .. but they are not open yet , but do have a base..
December 4th-6th looks pretty good for Central Honshu.
Bases can come overnight here !
It's not late.
Furano resort reporting 28 cm over night and snowed heavily all morning. Love these little surprises.
amazing im obviously looking at the wrong Nippon forecast sites.
Not really, as the weather gurus will tell you, very hard to pick these localized falls. I'm in the habit of doing the old 10X when it comes to sites such as Snow Forecast and other aggregating sites, which are indicative but not really accurate. Then there are some very real variations valley to valley and district to district, not to mention between Hokkaido and Honshu and within various prefectures in Honshu. Once the switch is flicked, it becomes less geographically varied but still has many localized variations. For my first 10 years in Hokkaido, I rarely bothered to check the weather. Its Hokkaido, its winter, it snows!
Some heavy snow forecast tonight for central resorts. Nice!
I still have my car up here Rain for a couple of days after , so SHOULD be ok ????
Stay on topic
A little burst of winter in central Japan.
A little lake/sea effect snow happening:
Around Yuzawa, Kagura is reporting 30cm overnight, added to a base of 20cm, opening today
Out and about.... Fresh northly wind, clear sunny, and 10 degrees here in Yokohama. Exactly the thing I want in winter.... Right conditions for snow in Nagano and Niigata, but it's still 30th November!!!
And I can see that Mt Fuji is covered with snow, probably down to around 1500m
We ended up with around 15cm overnight . Road still drivable .
This is NEW on the JMA site:
Click on the buttons:
Snow Depth, and snowfall for last 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72 hours.
It's quite nice for a snapshot!!!
Red snow storm warning out for Niseko area.
Thoughts Honshu ?
Still have my car up here ...it's good till about 40cms
Good till Wednesday.
smashing down by the looks of some cams in hokkaido..
Yep. Copping it in Furano, also snowing heavily in Tomamu.
JMA forecasting "Cloudy, occasional scattered showers or snow flurries" for Tokyo this Saturday!!!
Low 3 degrees, high 7.
I thought Honshu would be colder by now (today).
Light winds this arvo, and no fetch.
Winds still just a bit SW...however its getting better
the moisture hasn't penetrated that much inland in places like niigata or nagano.... I am guessing thats because the winds are not that strong yet
The temps are starting to dip below freezing so once the moisture hits, it should be snow rather than rain
Early season the main reason it doesn't penetrate, is that it's more often from the west. Even if it's strong, a westerly will rake the coast along Niigata & Nagano. The exception is Happo and Goryu/47 at Hakuba where the westerly pushes hard over the high peaks and they get blow over snow.... and to some extent at Myoko Suginohara, which is on the southern flank of Mt Myoko.
And of course, the resorts of Gifu face west, so they cop snow on a westerly.
Wet snow falling in Hakuba off a SW wind
You can see the SW wind skirting the coast at the moment.
After some warm rainy events it looks like we are back on and hopefully seen the last of the rain. Hovered around 2 degrees for about 24 hours to yesterday morning. Before and after shots of the Razormetre over that period. 180ASL just outside Furano.
The westerlies are also usually good for northern Honshu (Tohoku)
This is a good record of that. last 48 hours snowfall:
The snow to the bottom is in Gifu, and next to right(ESE of Toyama) are the mountains west of Hakuba and to the east of the resorts in Gifu. Just to the NE(just north of Nagano city) is a tiny patch where Mt Myoko is located.
Then you have Tohoku, where most of the snow has been around Yamagata.
And snow in Hokkaido mainly in central Hokkaido, but more recently around the Niseko region.
The Orange - Red(60 - 80cm) of Yamagata is Mt.Gassan and Hijiori village region. Hijiori's weather station is the second snowiest weather station of JMA weather stations. Sukayu is the snowiest, but Sukayu's weather station is at 900m asl and Hijiori's weather station is at 300m asl, so I'd say Hijiori is the snowiest village(there isn't a village at Sukayu but only some onsen lodges). According to JMA, the snowdepth of Hijiori was 445cm on February 13th, 2018(last year). 445cm at 300m asl is amazing. But, Shizu Onsen village near Hijiori is even snowier(JMA don't have a weather station there). The altitude is 700m asl close to Gassan ski resort(it opens in mid April).
Speaking of snowdepth in Aizu region. Each ski resort has opened a few ski slopes as of today. If they open all ski slopes by Dec 15th, I think it's average season, not slow start.
Sukayu weather station (Hakkoda) still ticking along. +60cm since yesterday.
21st December for Honshu
Grandeco(Urabandai, Aizu, Fukushima Pref) is + 35cm at the bottom and more at upper slopes today. Yuda, a weather station in Iwate Pref has had nearly 50cm since last night and it means Geto has had 60 - 80cm since last night, I guess. All pictures below are Grandeco today.
The baron! Good timing. On slopes 26th.
When does the winter ‘switch’ usually turn on for Honshu?
Will be 21st December this year imo
Honshu is a big island.......depends where.
Central Japan, usually between 15th & 20th December.
Thanks Sandy. I was thinking around 15th December so I was pretty close