Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'General & World' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2019.
Still heaps of low pressure systems pushing by.
Yeah whilst the forecasts have been all over the shop in terms of detail that warm, wet weather around the 23rd to 25th has been pretty consistently there. Only now it seems to have expanded to take up 5 of the 7 days of my trip. Ugly.
Yeah, but at least now more of them are pushing south of Tokyo, and not right thru the middle of the Sea of Japan. This means less very warm air dragged from the south.
The fact that Tokyo will likely get snow tomorrow indicates a change to more northerly winds in the next few weeks
I remember a long chat about the long fetch wind from deep in the Asian mainland combined with low freezing levels.
Looks like just that coming up for the weekend 25th and 26th with a bit of a teaser before hand. Most seems to be directed towards Hokkaido but central Honsu will also get its share.
Hope it does provide the goods we're waiting for!
I thought low pressure systems were bad for Japan snow.
I was just looking at that too.
Does the period of warmer weather just before add moisture content to the air. I'm still trying to figure out how it all works.
Snowing fairly heavily on the Niseko Village cam right now!
Yes, @Crispy013 meant that the low pressure systems that have been causing havoc are still coming.
I was saying after that, that most are moving further south now... something that generally happens 2 weeks earlier than this.
Generally, if the lows start tracking south does it mean those siberian highs have a chance to have greater effect?
Goes hand in hand, a stronger Siberian high will in theory push them further south, replacing the warmer air with colder air. The main problem with the lows from that direction is they bring warm air and moisture from the southern latitudes. Japan's version of the North American "pineapple express".
AFAIK the ideal situation for a low is for it to drop out of the Arctic somewhere to the NE of Hokkaido. This sets up the ideal airflow for good dumps across most of Northern Honshu and Hokkaido.
Here's a good example of what to look for from the chart on the 21st. You don't see a lot of moisture included but the upper airflow will be complimenting the prevailing wind/lake effect from Siberia, and hopefully creating ideal conditions for snow.
Nice. Thanks! Which chart is that btw?
For central Japan, you want the lows to disappear completely. It's not so much the lows NE of Hokkaido, it's the highs over Mongolia. These rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere, and direct northerlies from far to the north.
This is perfect. You can see that the low pressure is pretty much irrelevant:
See here, and scroll down, for optimal winds:
(look at page 1 as well)
What the lake effect looks like (same day, and location as above):
This brought 159cm to Myoko in 3 days.
Now that’s a good looking chart. Nice and clean with the right direction. I do note the presence of a low in a good place north of Hokkaido helping whip it in, but I get it. No low = good times! And that 1075 high over Mongolia is whopper. Need some of that and less spaghetti a la bullshit
interesting summary off the winter so far. Pretty much exactly what we are experiencing. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...st-snow-ive-seen-my-life-climate-change-japan
Not denying climate change but I wouldn’t attribute this seasons low snow entirely to climate change, natural weather variability can also play a significant part
I read somewhere that there could be a linkage to the IOD that’s contributed to the drought and westerlies turbo charging the fires (along with climate change)
Very lazy journalism to not interview anyone in a meteorological field for this. Anecdotal evidence is pretty subjective and doesn't give any real or validated explanation for what's occurring. Really lightweight. Interesting to see the niseko snowsports guy still talking it up. I struggle to see how his 86% actually applies and where. On honshu area most places are about 40% of how it looks at this time ood the season over the past 10 years, 2015 16 excluded- but that was still much more than currently in yuzawa area.
When did I last ski Japan: Feb 2016
When am I heading back: Feb 2020
Am I worried? Well If I have as much fun as I did in 2016, I'll be a happy chappy
For me whether the exhileration of the bite and accereration of a carve on solid pack or weightless bounce of a snow wall, its all happy skiing.
Sure plenty of freshies would be fantastic as we don't get many in Oz, but gotta agree any day on snow beats a day in the office
Back on topic. Plenty of days left in the season ....
Rain here in Yokohama, with a bit of snow mixed in.
Yes. You work with what you've got, I say.
Hard pack? Work on getting that carve just right. Nipple deep pow? Well, to me that's a bonus. Everything in between? Yes please!
Thanks for sharing this info, I really enjoy learning about it all.
Is this potential set up in a few days kind of getting close to the desired lake effect?
Not yet... But improving
OK, so now it's proper snow around Yokohama!!
I'm out and about, snow fall is what I'd call light to moderate, and it's bloody freezing
Nothing in Myoko today... it does feel cooler though.
And a light sleety snow mix in Shinjuku
There's a low pressure trough on the Pacific side, so no snow in Niigata or Nagano right now
Looks like the promising system out around the 25th-26th has been diluted down to nothing.. I was really holding out some hope that the season might just kick in late and hard. Looking increasingly unlikely.
dude - its still a week out and were latching onto a system two weeks out. take the advice of everyone here who says 4 day rule
Was it even really there. A lot of guessing going on with the weather in japan that far out.
A positive that I’m seeing is the cadence of lows crossing the mainland in the models is reducing - now we just need some ridging activity to present
This thread is an emotional rollercoaster.
As has been pointed out before, GFS has two separate model runs:
00z & 12z
06z & 18z
These runs usually always differ, unless the time is close, or the weather is particularly stable.
SO, if you look more than a week out at, say 06z, then you come back 6 hours later, and look at the latest (12z), there will be a difference which LOOKS like the forecast has changed..... but you are looking at the OTHER run.
Then you look 6 hours later, and suddenly, it's BACK, because you are looking at 18z.
So it usually HASN'T "diluted down to nothing", you're just looking at the other model run. When the two converge, you have a good indication that the prediction is good. This season (so far) the convergence is not very far out (maybe 4 days).
It need not be a rollercoaster if you understand the difference between the two model runs. (see above)
Trying to hard to snow at nozawa onsen! Small sleet at the moment. Japanese sago
Not every GFS run has the same input. There is also an occasional outlier run that has Ensemble data added to it for verification status.
00Z --- NOAA , Satellite , Shipping, Weather Bouy
06Z --- Satellite , Shipping , Weather Bouy
12Z --- Satellite, Shipping
18Z --- NOAA , Satellite , Shipping , Weather Bouy
Looks like maybe a sneaky little Honshu dump Mon-Tue. Not sustained but better than nothing
Yeah this seems locked and loaded. Been on every run for the last couple of days. Anything beyond though is a moving feast.
So I've been trying to get into understanding weather patterns and charts over the past month, and from what I can see/read above, would the system being dragged across the sea of Japan on the 31st be what we're looking for? I've been referring the GFS model on here:
The most reliable long range forecast I'm seeing is for a big season-starter somewhere around dec 20th....
Recommend you read the japan weather blog
Haha yes I do hope this is the case! Another season like like this and I’m back to North America.
this is very abnormal - this is a once in 20 year season
It's a once in 60 year START to the season.
And the skiing isn't dire where I've been by any stretch of the imagination.
It's been late August Australian snow.